Tag: Padres Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (10-9) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (10-5) on Tuesday night. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 1-0

The Padres have won back-to-back games, both as road underdogs, after taking down the Brewers 7-3 on Monday. After going down by 3 runs early on, the Padres had a 6-run 5th inning to take control. CF Jackson Merrill had 2 RBIs while RHP Joe Musgrove allowed 3 ER in 6 IP to pick up the win.

The Brewers have lost back-to-back games after falling to the Padres on Monday. RF Jackson Chourio had a 2-run HR while RHP Joe Ross allowed 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP and was tagged with the loss.

Padres at Brewers projected starters

RHP Dylan Cease vs. LHP Wade Miley

Cease (1-1, 2.16 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 0.84 WHIP, 3.24 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 16.2 IP.

  • Padres are 1-2 in Cease’s 3 starts this season
  • Has allowed 4 total ER in 3 games with 20 Ks and 6 BBs
  • Made 1 career start vs. Brewers while with the Chicago White Sox: Loss, 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Miley (0-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 0.75 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 0.0 K/9 in 4 IP.

  • Came off injured list to make 1st start last Wednesday; 4 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K in no-decision vs. Cincinnati Reds
  • Has pitched for 8 teams and is in his 2nd stint with Milwaukee

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Padres at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:13 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+135) | Brewers +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 7, Brewers 4

Moneyline

PASS.

The spread presents better value for San Diego (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

BET PADRES -1.5 (+135).

San Diego has won 4 of its last 5 games including 3 of its last 4 on the road. In 3 of its last 4 wins, it has won by 3 or more runs including on Monday against Milwaukee, which has lost back-to-back games by 2-plus runs with each of its last 4 losses being by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-110).

The Brewers have hit the over in 9 of their last 10 games and have scored 7 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games while allowing 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 10. The Padres have hit the Over in 4 of their last 5 games and have scored 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5.

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (61-69) will close out a 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (72-57) on Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 5-1

The Padres were defeated by the Brewers 5-4 on Saturday despite SS Xander Bogaerts and OF Juan Soto hitting home runs. San Diego has won only 4 of its last 10 contests and is 7 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild-Card spot.

The win Saturday extended the Brewers winning streak to 7 games and Milwaukee has now jumped out to a 4-game lead over the Chicago Cubs for 1st place in the NL Central.

Padres at Brewers projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Wacha (10-2, 2.63 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 96 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 6-2 home victory against the Miami Marlins on Monday
  • Road stats: 3-0, 3.23 ERA (39 IP, 14 ER) in 7 starts
  • Career vs. Brewers: 6-1, 3.99 ERA (79 IP, 35 ER) in 15 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Houser (5-4, 4.28 ERA) makes his 17th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 88 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-2 road win over the Texas Rangers last Sunday
  • Home stats: 2-1, 4.12 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 18 ER) in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 1.86 ERA (29 IP, 6 ER) in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance.

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Padres at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+135) | Brewers +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Brewers 3

Moneyline

Even though the Brewers have strung together 7 consecutive wins, I’ll back the PADRES (-120) on Sunday with Wacha taking the mound. Wacha hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in a start since April 26 at the Cubs.

Run line/Against the spread

While the Brewers should keep this game close, go ahead and PASS on the run line in this matchup. Unless you can get Milwaukee’s spread at -160 or better, I wouldn’t advise wagering on the run line.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) is the lean as Wacha has been dominant and San Diego’s bats have been quiet recently. Houser has allowed 3 ER or more in 3 of his last 5 starts, but the Padres have produced 4 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10 games.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Milwaukee Brewers (70-57) welcome the San Diego Padres (61-67) to American Family Field Friday. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 3-1

The Brewers are coming off a 2-game sweep over the Minnesota Twins and a 3-game sweep of the Texas Rangers. They are 7-3 over their last 10 and 35-27 at home this season. They lead the NL Central.

The Padres are 17 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West and are 26-34 away from home. They are 5-5 over their last 10 and won 2 of 3 against the Miami Marlins in their last series.

Padres at Brewers projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff

Darvish (8-9, 4.35 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 132 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 8-1 home loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday
  • 2023 road stats: 5-3, 4.34 ERA in 56 IP in 10 starts

Woodruff (2-1, 2.89 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 28 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 9-8 road win over the Rangers Saturday
  • 2023 home stats: 1-1, 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 IP in 2 starts

Padres at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:21 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Padres at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 5, Padres 4

Moneyline

BET BREWERS (-125).

At 35-27, Milwaukee is the 9th-best team in the MLB at home, and San Diego, at 26-34, has the 8th-lowest win rate on the road. The Brewers are also 39-26 on the moneyline as a favorite, which they are here.

San Diego sits with the 5th-worst win rate as an underdog at just 10-18. Despite Davish being on the mound, Milwaukee has dominated the series and should open with a win.

Back BREWERS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s just no value here. Darvish is still a top-tier pitcher and should be able to keep this game close, but at +1.5 (-190), there’s just too much juice to consider the Padres on the run line.

Similarly, the Brewers are just 16-28 on the run line as a home favorite and aren’t worth the risk at -1.5 (+155). Pass the run line here.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8 (-120).

Darvish has struggled mightily over his last several starters. In 3 of his last 5 starts and in his last 2, he has allowed 4 ER or more. The Padres are 2-2 O/U in their last 4 starts and 2-3 O/U in their last 5 games.

The Brewers have scored at least 6 runs on their own in 4 straight games and are 7-5-1 O/U over their last 13 games. They should be able to stay hot against a struggling Darvish. Take OVER 8 (-120).

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (32-21) wrap up their 4-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (33-22) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego beat Milwaukee 4-0 Saturday thanks in part to Padres LHP MacKenzie Gore‘s 6-inning, 10-strikeout, 3-hit, scoreless gem and a 2-run homer by IF Jake Cronenworth.

The season series is tied 3-3 but San Diego has a plus-7 run differential. Sunday’s Padres-Brewers game is their regular-season head-to-head finale.

Padres at Brewers projected starters

RHP Mike Clevinger vs. LHP Eric Lauer

Clevinger is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA (14 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 15 K over 3 starts vs. the Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies.

  • Never faced the Brewers before

Lauer is 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 8-7 loss at the Cubs with 4 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Padres: One start — a 2-1 home loss May 26 — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

Padres at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-205) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Padres at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the PADRES (+105) because they are more productive at the plate against lefties than the Brewers vs. righties and Clevinger is pitching better than his basic numbers indicate while Lauer is pitching worse.

San Diego’s lineup has more runs scored per 9 (5.2-4.9), a better wRC+ (112-105), wOBA (.326-.322) and BB/K rate (0.50-0.36) vs. left-handed pitching than Milwaukee’s against righties.

Clevinger’s FIP (.300) is lower than his ERA and his K%, home run rate (HR%), hard-hit rate, exit velocity (EV) and groundball rate are all better than the MLB average. While Lauer’s FIP (3.80) is higher than his ERA and his HR%, EV, groundball rate and hard-hit rate are below the MLB average.

When this game opened to the betting public Saturday, most of the money was on San Diego whereas a majority of the wagers placed were on Milwaukee initially (per Pregame.com). Typically it’s wise to follow the money since “sharps” put up a lot more dough than recreational bettors.

BET 1 unit on the PADRES (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Padres +1.5 (-205) is way too expensive and I’m not confident enough in San Diego outright to take the alternate RL. Milwaukee is 6-2 RL as an underdog, which also rules out San Diego’s alternate RL.

PASS.

Over/Under

PASS.

The Under has cashed in 4 of the 6 Padres-Brewers meetings this season, San Diego is 7-8-1 O/U as a road underdog and Milwaukee is 11-12 O/U as a home favorite. However, this is a sharp total and both lineups hit well vs. their opponent’s respective pitch handedness.

PASS.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (33-20) host the San Diego Padres (30-21) Friday at American Family Field for the 2nd game of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Brewers lead the season series with the Padres 3-1 and Milwaukee has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.

Milwaukee stole the series opener 5-4 Thursday with a 4-run bottom of the 9th-inning rally featuring a bases-clearing 3-run triple by Brewers 3B Jace Peterson.

Padres at Brewers projected starters

RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Musgrove is 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 58 IP across 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 4-2 home loss vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Brewers: 0-1 with a 1.54 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 19 K over 2 starts.

Burnes is 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 64 2/3 IP across 10 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8-0, Sunday at the St. Louis Cardinals with 7-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 11 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Padres: One start — a 4-1 win in San Diego May 24 — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.

Padres at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:42 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-180) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Padres at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Padres 2

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BREWERS (-160) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price.

However, Milwaukee is the correct side here because Burnes is better than Musgrove, the Brew Crew’s lineup hits righties better than San Diego’s and Milwaukee’s bullpen is more reliable.

Musgrove is a shoo-in for this summer’s MLB All-Star game but Burnes is the reigning National League Cy Young winner and his stuff is just as nasty this year.

The Brewers are 24-10 vs. righty starters and rank 10th in wRC+ (108), 5th in wOBA (.327) and 6th in hard-hit rate (32.8%) against right-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. While the Padres are 17-16 vs. righties with an 86 wRC+ (25th), .286 wOBA (27th) and 27.4% hard-hit rate (25th).

If your standard unit is $100 then bet that on the BREWERS (-160) to earn a $62.50 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Brewers -1.5 (+145) are a respectable 11-10 RL as home favorites but the Padres +1.5 (-180) are 12-2 RL as road underdogs with a plus-2.7 RL margin.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-107) since there are 2 alphas on the mound Friday and most of the trends are Under-friendly, including the Under cashing in 11 of the past 15 Padres-Brewers matchups.

However, this total feels sharp and a majority of the betting public will probably be on the Under as well, which kills its value.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (30-20) head to American Family Field Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (32-20) at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego is 4-6 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games and was just swept in a 3-game series at the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this week.

Milwaukee just lost back-to-back games to the Chicago Cubs, including the rubber match of their 3-game set, but the Brewers are 6-4 SU in the last 10.

The Brewers beat the Padres 5-2 in last year’s season series and had a plus-6 run differential in those meetings.

Padres at Brewers projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Manaea is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 56 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Friday’s 4-3 home win vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates with 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.

Milwaukee hasn’t officially announced a starter but Houser is projected to get the nod Thursday. He’s 3-5 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 46 1/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 8-3 Saturday at St. Louis with 4 IP, 5 ER (8 R), 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 1 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Padres: 0-0 in 2 starts with a 1.86 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K.

Padres at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:34 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Brewers -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Padres at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the PADRES (-108) because they’ve been moved from a plus-money payout on the opener up to the current price by early sharp action and the Brewers (-112) struggle to hit lefties.

Per Pregame.com, more than 75% of the cash is on Milwaukee, but the line is moving toward San Diego. This reverse line movement is suspicious because common sense tells us oddsmakers would adjust the prices according to the market movement.

The Brewers are 8-10 SU vs. lefty starters and their lineup ranks 27th in wRC+ (84) and 22nd in wOBA (.291) against left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

BET 1 unit on the PADRES (-108).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Padres -1.5 (+145) are 8-6 RL as road favorites but struggle against right-handed pitching while the Brewers +1.5 (-180) are 6-2 RL as underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-120) because most of the trends point to a lower-scoring affair, the Brewers struggle vs. lefties and the Padres can’t hit righties. Per FanGraphs, San Diego’s lineup ranks 24th in wRC+ (86), 27th in wOBA (.286) and 28th in hard-hit rate (26.7%) vs. right-handed pitching.

Also, San Diego is 0-6-2 O/U in the last 8 games and 0-4-1 O/U in the last 5 games vs. teams with a winning record and Milwaukee is 0-4 O/U in the last 4 games vs. teams with a 60.0% winning rate or better. The Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Padres-Brewers meetings.

San Diego’s ML is my favorite bet in this game but there’s value on the UNDER 8.5 (-120).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (32-18) and the Milwaukee Brewers (24-25) close out their four-game series at American Family Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego pulled out a 2-1 extra-inning victory Wednesday for its second win of the series. C Victor Caratini‘s RBI single scored RF Wil Myers in the top of the 10th.

Season series: Brewers lead 4-2.

LHP Ryan Weathers makes his sixth start of the season for the Padres. He is 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 over five starts and five relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 2 K in San Diego’s 6-4 victory over the Seattle Mariners Saturday.
  • Career vs. Brewers: No appearances.

RHP Adrian Houser is the projected starter for the Brewers. He is 3-5 with a 4.53 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 across nine starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 4 IP with 6 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 4 K at the Cincinnati Reds Friday.
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 in two starts and one relief outing.
    • vs. Padres on the current roster: 39 at-bats with a .179/.238/.469 slash line, 10/3 K/BB, 0 HR and 3 RBIs.

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Padres at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+135) | Brewers +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Padres 6, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PADRES (-125) for 1 unit because they are a far better hitting team and have a significant edge in pitching as well.

San Diego’s lineup got off to a slow start but over the past two weeks, Padres batters are sixth in WAR and wOBA, and fifth in wRC+.

A major reason why they’re starting to find their groove at the plate is that they’re drawing more walks (second in BB/K rate over the last 14 days). It’s an area of concern for Houser, who grades in the 28th percentile of BB%.

Also, Weathers has been very tough on left-handed hitters. Three of Milwaukee’s best bats are lefties who’ve struggled vs. left-handed pitching in 2B Kolten Wong, OF Christian Yelich and 3B Travis Shaw.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Padres -1.5 (+135). I’d prefer to stick with San Diego’s money line since Houser has pitched well against the Padres.

Furthermore, the Brewers have good arms in the bullpen and their numbers should progress toward the mean in the coming weeks.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 8 (-110) because these teams have a combined 10-4 O/U record when these starters take the mound but the Under cashed in eight of the last 10 Padres-Brewers meetings, dating back to 2019.

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