The San Diego Padres (32-21) wrap up their 4-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (33-22) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego beat Milwaukee 4-0 Saturday thanks in part to Padres LHP MacKenzie Gore‘s 6-inning, 10-strikeout, 3-hit, scoreless gem and a 2-run homer by IF Jake Cronenworth.
The season series is tied 3-3 but San Diego has a plus-7 run differential. Sunday’s Padres-Brewers game is their regular-season head-to-head finale.
Padres at Brewers projected starters
RHP Mike Clevinger vs. LHP Eric Lauer
Clevinger is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA (14 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 15 K over 3 starts vs. the Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Never faced the Brewers before
Lauer is 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 8-7 loss at the Cubs with 4 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. the Padres: One start — a 2-1 home loss May 26 — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
Padres at Brewers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:11 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-205) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Padres at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Brewers 3
Money line
BET the PADRES (+105) because they are more productive at the plate against lefties than the Brewers vs. righties and Clevinger is pitching better than his basic numbers indicate while Lauer is pitching worse.
San Diego’s lineup has more runs scored per 9 (5.2-4.9), a better wRC+ (112-105), wOBA (.326-.322) and BB/K rate (0.50-0.36) vs. left-handed pitching than Milwaukee’s against righties.
Clevinger’s FIP (.300) is lower than his ERA and his K%, home run rate (HR%), hard-hit rate, exit velocity (EV) and groundball rate are all better than the MLB average. While Lauer’s FIP (3.80) is higher than his ERA and his HR%, EV, groundball rate and hard-hit rate are below the MLB average.
When this game opened to the betting public Saturday, most of the money was on San Diego whereas a majority of the wagers placed were on Milwaukee initially (per Pregame.com). Typically it’s wise to follow the money since “sharps” put up a lot more dough than recreational bettors.
BET 1 unit on the PADRES (+105).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Padres +1.5 (-205) is way too expensive and I’m not confident enough in San Diego outright to take the alternate RL. Milwaukee is 6-2 RL as an underdog, which also rules out San Diego’s alternate RL.
PASS.
Over/Under
PASS.
The Under has cashed in 4 of the 6 Padres-Brewers meetings this season, San Diego is 7-8-1 O/U as a road underdog and Milwaukee is 11-12 O/U as a home favorite. However, this is a sharp total and both lineups hit well vs. their opponent’s respective pitch handedness.
PASS.
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