The Milwaukee Brewers (33-20) host the San Diego Padres (30-21) Friday at American Family Field for the 2nd game of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Brewers lead the season series with the Padres 3-1 and Milwaukee has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.
Milwaukee stole the series opener 5-4 Thursday with a 4-run bottom of the 9th-inning rally featuring a bases-clearing 3-run triple by Brewers 3B Jace Peterson.
Padres at Brewers projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Musgrove is 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 58 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 4-2 home loss vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Brewers: 0-1 with a 1.54 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 19 K over 2 starts.
Burnes is 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 64 2/3 IP across 10 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-0, Sunday at the St. Louis Cardinals with 7-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 11 K.
- 2022 vs. the Padres: One start — a 4-1 win in San Diego May 24 — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
Padres at Brewers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:42 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-180) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Padres at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Padres 2
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the BREWERS (-160) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price.
However, Milwaukee is the correct side here because Burnes is better than Musgrove, the Brew Crew’s lineup hits righties better than San Diego’s and Milwaukee’s bullpen is more reliable.
Musgrove is a shoo-in for this summer’s MLB All-Star game but Burnes is the reigning National League Cy Young winner and his stuff is just as nasty this year.
The Brewers are 24-10 vs. righty starters and rank 10th in wRC+ (108), 5th in wOBA (.327) and 6th in hard-hit rate (32.8%) against right-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. While the Padres are 17-16 vs. righties with an 86 wRC+ (25th), .286 wOBA (27th) and 27.4% hard-hit rate (25th).
If your standard unit is $100 then bet that on the BREWERS (-160) to earn a $62.50 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Brewers -1.5 (+145) are a respectable 11-10 RL as home favorites but the Padres +1.5 (-180) are 12-2 RL as road underdogs with a plus-2.7 RL margin.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-107) since there are 2 alphas on the mound Friday and most of the trends are Under-friendly, including the Under cashing in 11 of the past 15 Padres-Brewers matchups.
However, this total feels sharp and a majority of the betting public will probably be on the Under as well, which kills its value.
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