10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 10

10 best predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the Week 11 college football games.

10 best predictions for this week’s college football slate. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 11 games?


10 Best College Football Predictions: Week 11

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Results So Far: 60-52-1

This is a strangely odd week.

It’s not like there are a slew massive world-change games like we got in Week 10 – I want nothing to do with TCU vs Texas against the spread; more on that later on – and now we get into the bizarre finishing kick where we lose control.

Everything we know, every pattern, and every trend now has to take into account Senior Day – Georgia Tech hosting Miami this week for that, by the way – when emotions run high and teams usually play at another level.

We’re also entering the portion of the program when teams locked into a losing season have no more Fs to give and end up throwing that interesting freshman quarterback into the mix. Maybe teams play differently when the pressure is off, or maybe a coach comes up with something special to avoid being fired, or …

Yeah, I know, the picks.

And I do apologize in advance tor all you who just want the against the spread calls  and aren’t interested in the seemingly safer point totals for some of the key games this week.

Fortunately for me, Twitter might be gone by the time you read this, so feel free to shake your fist in anger and assume the message will be received.

So with that, we start out with a point total pick I don’t actually believe in.

Click on each game for the preview

10. North Carolina at Wake Forest

POINT TOTAL 77.5
PICK Under

This is me trying to be an adult.

It’s North Carolina vs Wake Forest. These two put on a 58-55 show last year in a Tar Heel win, and the two have the offenses to do it all again.

North Carolina is all O and no D, but its games aren’t getting that far out of control. The Appalachian State game got to 124, the Notre Dame battle rolled up 78, and Wake Forest hands out 40 points a game like Halloween candy.

It’s a primetime game that I actually think will be plays in the 40s on both sides, but …

A man is nothing without his principles. If you’re a regular around these parts, you know what I’m going to say …

If the world is giving you a college total of 70 or more, you go under – TOO many things can go wrong – and if you don’t win, enjoy the show.

None of the last five North Carolina games have hit 78.

With ALL of that hoo-ha just spouted …

9. Arizona at UCLA

POINT TOTAL 77.5
PICK Over

Again, I actually like the over on the North Carolina-Wake Forest game, but I couldn’t do it. I have to stick to what I believe. Do the same thing every time, and over the long haul you’ll be ahead.

Consistency, Son.

Stuff goes up, stuff goes down, but if you do things the right way, eat plenty of fiber, tip 20%, and let that guy with all the creepy political stickers merge into your lane, everything will work out just fine.

That includes always taking the under on a college point total of 70 or more.

Don’t think you know something, and don’t go with your gut – you ALWAYS go under on a college point total of 70 or more …

I can’t. It would be wrong to suggest doing that here.

UCLA is going to score somewhere between 45 and 49 points, How do we know this? Arizona has allowed somewhere between 45 and 49 points in five of the six Pac-12 games, and the one outlier was against Colorado.

Arizona will score between 31 and 39 points. How dow we know this? It did that in six of the nine games so far, and UCLA has allowed 32 points or more in four of the last five games.

One more point total and then I’ll get into the ATS side of things.

8. Indiana at Ohio State

POINT TOTAL 59.5
PICK Over

I was originally going with Indiana getting 40.5 here, but the line moved to 39.5. That shouldn’t have mattered, but all of a sudden I had visions of a 52-10 Ohio State win just as much as I could see a 44-3 victory.

Either way, I get the sense that Ohio State is a tad salty after last week’s 21-7 win over Northwestern.

The weather was miserable, the wind was around 50 mph – I know, I was in it in the greater Chicago area on Saturday – and there wasn’t any passing game. Even so, you could tell all week that CJ Stroud and company want to stretch their legs a bit after that.

This won’t be 77-21 like the Buckeye win over Toledo, but the home side should be able to take care of almost all of the heavy lifting itself.

Just hope it isn’t 58-0.

Okay, enough point totals for a bit.

7. New Mexico at Air Force

LINE Air Force -21.5
ATS PICK Air Force

Sort of like the Indiana-Ohio State game, this one seems like we should be able to figure it out based on the spread and the point total.

The Falcons are favored by 21.5 at home and the point total is 37.5. That seems about right considering New Mexico has scored 14 points or fewer in six of its nine games. Here’s where this tilts.

Air Force has scored fewer than 27 points four times – 14 against Wyoming and Boise State, and 13 against Army and Navy. Boise State’s defense is great, Wyoming and Army were away from Fort Collins, and Navy games vs other service academies are low scoring.

At home, Air Force host up 41 or more against three mediocre teams at the same level as the Lobos. That, and New Mexico only faced two decent running teams so far and got rolled for over 200 yards in blowout losses to LSU (38-0) and Fresno State (41-9).

6. Alabama at Ole Miss

LINE Alabama -11.5
ATS PICK Ole Miss

I’m not going to lie and pretend there’s any better insight to this that isn’t written up in the game preview, and even then it basically comes down to this.

Alabama isn’t Alabama right now against good teams, especially on the road.

Alabama 20, Texas 19 – it probably should’ve been a loss.

Alabama was having problems with Arkansas for three quarters before everything turned in fourth quarter of the 49-26 win, but that was SHAKY.

Tennessee? It probably should’ve been a win, but wasn’t, and didn’t cover.

LSU? It probably should’ve been a win, but wasn’t, and didn’t cover. Both Tennessee and LSU came though ATS.

It’s Alabama. It could win 45-3 and you wouldn’t blink, but if you’re giving me a double-digit home dog as good as Ole Miss, fine – it’s the revival of DDHD bit that crushed so hard for three weeks 20 years ago in this piece …

Don’t think, just pick.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: Boise State at Nevada

Minnesota vs Northwestern Prediction Game Preview

Minnesota vs Northwestern game preview, prediction, and breakdown for the Week 11 game on Saturday, November 12

Minnesota vs Northwestern prediction, game preview, how to watch. Week 11, Saturday, November 12


Minnesota vs Northwestern How To Watch

Date: Saturday, November 12
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
How To Watch: BTN
Record: Minnesota (6-3), Northwestern (1-8)
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CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
Bowl Projections | Expert Picks Week 11
Week 11 Schedule, Predictions | Bowl Bubble
Path to the Playoff: 12 teams still in the race
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Minnesota vs Northwestern Game Preview

Why Northwestern Will Win

The wind and awful conditions certainly helped – there wasn’t anything happening through the air – but the Wildcats still gave Ohio State a push in a 21-7 loss.

Again, the weather, but Northwestern outgained the Buckeyes 285-283. That’s a massive reach for something nice, but in the midst of a miserable season that could potentially be 1-11, the effort is still there.

Minnesota has been wildly inconsistent. The running game rocked against Rutgers, and sputtered against Nebraska. The Cats have to make the Gophers throw, keep them to under four yards per carry, and …

Bowl Bubble: Every Team’s Bowl Situation

Why Minnesota Will Win

Yeah, that holding Minnesota to under four yards per carry thing. That’s not happening.

The Northwestern defensive front has fallen off the map with games against better ground games over the last month. It was okay at times, but it’s allowing well over five yards per pop in Big Ten play.

Minnesota is fine at keeping things conservative and boring. It wasn’t great against the Huskers,  but there weren’t any turnovers, the defense stuffed the Huskers in key moments, and all turned out to be fine.

Northwestern hasn’t forced a takeaway since October 1st – it took a brutal rain storm to come up with five against Penn State.

Schedules, Predictions CollegeNFL

What’s Going To Happen

The Minnesota defense will rise up at home.

There won’t be anything flashy about this. The four best Gopher ground games this year were in Huntington Bank – all wins.

Assume 200 rushing yards, assume dominating third downs on both sides of the ball, and assume Minnesota gets a win to make a bigger push into a stronger bowl slot.

Expert Picks College Week 11NFL Week 10

Minnesota vs Northwestern Prediction, Line

Minnesota 31, Northwestern 10
Line: Minnesota -17.5, o/u: 40.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Minnesota vs Northwestern Must See Rating (out of 5): 2
Predictions of Every Game

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Bowl Projections | Rankings
Schedules, Scores For All 131 Teams

Big Ten Predictions Schedule Game Previews Lines TV Week 11

Big Ten college football predictions, schedule, game previews, lines and TV listings for Week 11 of the season.

Big Ten college football predictions, schedule, game previews, lines and TV listings for Week 11 of the season.


Big Ten Predictions, Schedule, Game Previews, Lines, TV: Week 11

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Results So Far
Straight Up 68-16, ATS 55-27, o/u 44-37 

Click on each game for the preview and prediction 

Saturday, November 12

Indiana at Ohio State

12:00 FOX
Line: Ohio State -40.5, o/u: 57.5

Purdue at Illinois

12:00 ESPN2
Line: Illinois -6.5, o/u: 44.5

Rutgers at Michigan State

12:00 BTN
Line: Michigan State -10.5, o/u: 40.5

Nebraska at Michigan

3:30 ABC
Prediction: Michigan 40, Nebraska 13
Line: Nebraska -29.5, o/u: 49.5

Maryland at Penn State

3:30 FOX
Line: Penn State -10.5, o/u: 59.5

Wisconsin at Iowa

3:30 FS1
Line: Wisconsin -1.5, o/u: 35.5

Northwestern at Minnesota

3:30 BTN
Line: Minnesota -17.5, o/u: 40.5

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CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
Bowl Projections | Expert Picks Week 11
Week 11 Schedule, Predictions | Bowl Bubble
Path to the Playoff: 12 teams still in the race