The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-5, 3-3 ACC Coastal) visit Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers (6-3, 3-2) Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.
We analyze the North Carolina-Pittsburgh odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
North Carolina at Pittsburgh: Three things you need to know
1. Pittsburgh has been good to Against the Spread (ATS) bettors this season, going 6-3. The Panthers are now eight games over .500 ATS since 2017. Saturday’s contest marks just the second Pitt has had at home since Sept. 28. Two games back, the Panthers lost at home to Miami 16-12. In that one, Pitt outgained UM by more than 100 yards, but the Panthers were a -2 in turnovers. The Hurricanes prevailed on a pair of short-field scores.
2. For the season, the Panthers are a -5 in TO margin. Turnover analytics peg Pitt as being among the unluckiest teams in FBS. North Carolina has done well to only have nine giveaways on the year — especially with freshman Sam Howell at quarterback.
3. The Tar Heels have acquitted themselves well on the road, but they perhaps have some close-game fatigue and one can see a night game getting into Pitt control and having the Panthers prevail on some extra energy. UNC has played eight one-score games this season (3-5 SU); that includes a six-overtime game Oct. 19.
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North Carolina at Pittsburgh: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Pittsburgh 31, North Carolina 20
Moneyline (ML)
AVOID the Pittsburgh -200 line.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Pitt returns a profit of $5 – every $1 wagered profits $0.50 (1 divided by 2.00) with a Panthers straight-up win.
Against the Spread (ATS)
PITTSBURGH -3.5 (-115) is a solid play in this ACC game. The Panthers and Tar Heels are even talent-wise. The most elite unit on the field, however, will be a Pitt defense allowing just 4.2 YPP (5th — FBS). The worst unit, yes, will be the Panther offense. But it’s a Panther offense playing a night game at home and one some indicators point to as undercooked in delivering big plays and more efficiency.
Plus, UNC has some injury questions in key areas — offensive line and defensive backfield — play into the confidence on this side.
Over/Under (O/U)
This sets up as a game for the Panthers to get out of their 20-point shadow on offense. Pitt does indeed rank 111th in the nation in scoring (20.9 PPG), but new OC Mark Whipple has seen his offense go up against five FBS top-40 defensive teams. UNC has coughed up 9.6 yards per pass attempt in three of the last four games. The Panther defense ranks ninth in the nation in yards allowed (280 YPG); Pitt yields just 86 YPG on the ground (5th — FBS).
Even in calling for some regression in much of Pitts’ offensive efforts, I’m going to STAY AWAY from what looks like a fair O/U figure. A lean on 50.5 (-110) is mitigated by the solid possibility of a Pitt-in-control boat race.
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