Tag: NFL picks predictions against the spread moneyline

Part of betting is learning from your losses and learning your weaknesses. I’ve done both.

My Achilles’ heel is double-digit favorites. They should slap the taste out of the mouth of their opponent. Over the past four weeks, there have been seven games in which team has been favored by double-digits.

I’m 1-6 in those games.

Suffice to say, I will be betting the Over/Under on the one double-digit game this week. Learn from your mistakes and don’t repeat them…even if you believe this is the week the curse ends.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 11

Tennessee Titans (+145) at Green Bay Packers (-170)

The Packers saved their season by being desperate and throwing the ball. Given their banged up offensive line, that won’t continue for long. Tennessee is a three-point underdog at even money. I wouldn’t begrudge anyway effectively being given four points (three would be a push). The Titans’ only losses have been the Chiefs, Bills and Giants. The Packers aren’t in that class. Take the Titans on the moneyline +145)

Los Angeles Rams (+160) at New Orleans Saints (-190)

The Rams are getting Matthew Stafford back, but won’t have Cooper Kupp, which is why the Saints are a solid favorite (3.5 points at -113 Rams, -107 Saints). The Rams beat the teams they’re better than (see the schedule), but I’m willing to give the Saints a chance to win and get more than a field goal as a hedge. Take the Rams plus 3.5 points (-113).

Detroit Lions (+140) at New York Giants (-165)

It seems like the Giants refuse to get respect from the oddsmakers who seemingly keep expecting the other shoe to drop. The Giants are small favorites (3 points at -109 Lions, -111 Giants). The Lions have lost to every team they’ve played with a record of better than .500. I’ll lay a field goal on that. Take the Giants and lay 3 points (-113).

Chicago Bears (+145) at Atlanta Falcons (-170)

The Bears have been a different team the last month since letting Justin Fields cut loose and run. The Falcons are a fluky team at home, which is why they’re favored (3.5 points at -119 Bears, -101 Falcons). Chicago has a chance to win this game if they let Fields run the RPO, but given a nice cushion is easier. Take the Bears plus 3.5 points (-119).

Carolina Panthers (+500) at Baltimore Ravens (-700)

Seeing as I won’t touch 13 points (see above), all that leaves me is the Over/Under (42 points at -110 Over and Under). I believe the Ravens are capable of putting up 30. That doesn’t leave Baker Mayfield to do much late in the game. Take the Over (-110).

Philadelphia Eagles (-320) at Indianapolis Colts (+250)

The perfect season is done because the Eagles shot themselves in the foot (wing, thigh and leg) Monday night. They’re solid road favorites (7 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Colts). Indy is overmatched at far too many positions. This could get ugly. Take the Eagles and lay 7 points (-108).

Cleveland Browns (+310) at Buffalo Bills (-380)

Who plays football in four to six feet of snow? Nobody. Right now, the Over/Under is acceptable (43 points at -110 for both). As we’ve learned in the NFL, games can be delayed or relocated. Both options are currently in play. I’ve attended a Tuesday night NFL game. The field will be clean – one way or another – when the game begins. Take the Over (-110).

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Washington Commanders (170) at Houston Texans (+145)

I don’t like this game. The Commanders are on a short week. Neither team has a quarterback that’s NFL-worthy. The Over/Under is small (41 points at -109 Over, -111 Under). I see a game where running the ball and field position are at a premium to keep it close late. Take the Under (-111).

New York Jets (+145) at New England Patriots (-170)

This one could go either way. The only certainty is that a lot of points are not expected. The Over/Under is just 38 points – three points less than any other game. The Patriots are nominal favorites (3 points at -102 Jets, -118 Patriots). If a game is expected to be played tight to the vest, I tend to go Belichick in that scenario. Take the Patriots and lay 3 points (-118).

Las Vegas Raiders (+125) at Denver Broncos (-150)

Both teams have been disappointments, but the Broncos defense has allowed 20 points just once – a loss to the Raiders in Week 3. Denver is a minimal home favorite (2.5 points at -103 Raiders, -117 Broncos). The Raiders are on the brink of 2022 extinction, and the Broncos defense has revenge in mind. Take the Broncos and lay 2.5 points (-117).

Cincinnati Bengals (-200) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+170)

A Week 1 loss to the Steelers put the Bengals in a hole they’re still trying to climb out of – where every loss is a step backward that kills momentum. Cincinnati is a road favorite (4 points at -110 Bengals, -110 Steelers). At this point, the Bengals are better at too many positions to lay off the point spread. Take the Bengals and lay 4 points (-110).

Dallas Cowboys (-125) at Minnesota Vikings (+105)

Minnesota is 4-0 at home and winners of seven straight. The Cowboys are a coming off a road loss at Green Bay where they blew a 14-point lead. Yet, Dallas is favored (2 points at -110 for both teams). Call me nuts, but getting points for a home team with a loud crowd and an 8-1 record just makes too much sense. Take the Vikings on the moneyline (+105).

Kansas City Chiefs (-240) at Los Angeles Chargers (+200)

In my view, the Chargers are the most overrated team of the last two seasons. They lose games they should win. They lose games they should lose. The spread says the Chiefs should win (5.5 points at -112 Chiefs, -108 Chargers). I rarely shy away from a team that dominates its division or betting against a team that underachieves. Take the Chiefs and lay 5.5 points (-112).

San Francisco 49ers (-370) at Arizona Cardinals (+305)

The 49ers remain a favorite to go to the Super Bowl despite not showing it consistently on the field. The Cardinals are forced to pass by design. The Over/Under is low (43.5 at -111 Over, -109 Under). The combination of the 49ers looking to hit their stride and the Cardinals likely to throw 40 or more times makes this number seem too low. Take the Over (-111).

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Week 10 in the NFL could be a big week for home cookin’. Of the 14 games on the schedule, only three road teams are favored – two because they’re playing the hapless Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Dallas Cowboys on the road against the reeling Green Bay Packers, who have lost five straight.

This may be the biggest week of the season to date to focus on the point spread, because that’s where the best bets are going to be found.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 10

Atlanta Falcons (-140) at Carolina Panthers (+117)

The Falcons somehow find themselves in first place in this brutal division, so it makes sense that they a mild road favorite (2.5 points at -120 Falcons, +100 Panthers). It’s not that I have any faith whatsoever in the Falcons, I just have less faith in the Panthers. Take the Falcons and lay 2.5 points (-120).

Seattle Seahawks (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-150)

The Seahawks are one of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season, and the Buccaneers are a very modest favorite playing in Munich (2.5 points at -120 Buccaneers, -101 Seahawks). I still have a hard time laying off the Bucs as being done, because I believe they have the talent to flip the switch and roll off four or five straight wins when they’re right. Geno Smith takes a beating, and the Bucs try to get things moving in the right direction. Take the Buccaneers and lay 2.5 points (-120).

Minnesota Vikings (+160) at Buffalo Bills (-200)

A week ago, Buffalo was an early 9.5-point favorite. With news of Josh Allen‘s elbow injury it has dropped like a rock (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). If Allen can’t go, backup Case Keenum is reunited with Stefon Diggs against the team in which they performed the Minneapolis Miracle. The Bills will miss Allen is he doesn’t play, but I would still have the spread closer to 7 points than 3.5. Take the Bills and lay 3.5 points (-110).

New Orleans Saints (-130) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+105)

Neither offense has been able to consistently move the ball, which explains the low Over/Under (40.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). I’m convinced this number will rise a point or two before game time, which is fine by me because I think the first team to 20 wins. Take the Under (-115).

Detroit Lions (+120) at Chicago Bears (-150)

The Bears are a much different team since they’ve opted to let Justin Fields run more, but O/U is too high (48.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Both teams have shaky pass offenses and not a ton of big-play guys, so I see running as being the primary way of moving the ball. Two or three field goals at the end of long drives makes this number really hard to hit. Take the Under (-110).

Cleveland Browns (+150) at Miami Dolphins (-190)

The Browns are coming off their bye, and Miami’s offense is posting gaudy numbers. The Over/Under here is the same point as the Lions-Bears game (48.5 points at -110 for both). Both teams are capable of putting points on the board and neither tends to let up if an opposing defense can’t stop what they’re doing. Take the Over (-110).

Houston Texans (+180) at New York Giants (-230)

I’ve been on record that I believe the success the Giants have had is not sustainable. They’re a solid favorite (5 points at -110 for both teams). It’s showing respect for a team at home against one of the league dregs. While you won’t catch me on the G-Men bandwagon, I’m hopping a ride this week. Take the Giants and lay 5 points (-110).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+330) at Kansas City Chiefs (-450)

This game features the highest Over/Under of any game on the Week 10 slate (50.5 points at -110 Over, -110 Under). The biggest problem I have here is that I’m not convinced the Jaguars can score more than 17 points and their defense is good enough to keep the Chiefs to 35 or less. Take the Under (-110).

Denver Broncos (+115) at Tennessee Titans (-140)

While I’m intrigued by the pee-wee Over/Under on this one (37 points), I’m more interested in the Titans being less than a touchdown favorite (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -115 Titans). This has the cliche “trap game” written all over it – Broncos coming off their bye and Titans coming off a tough loss on Sunday night to the Chiefs. Tennessee has been underestimated all year. If Ryan Tannehill is back, the offense can be two-dimensional, which allows Derrick Henry to do his thing. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-115).

Indianapolis Colts (+205) at Las Vegas Raiders (-260)

The Colts are in disarray, which helps explain why the Raiders are such a big favorite (6 points at -115 Colts, -105 Raiders). The Colts set the standard when they “sucked for Luck” and threw a QB to the wolves for an entire season to get a QB in the draft. I think we’re witnessing S4L 2.0 with their recent decisions. Take the Raiders and lay 6 points (-105).

Dallas Cowboys (-240) at Green Bay Packers (+190)

The Cowboys are 6-2 Against the Spread, which means they beat the teams they’re supposed by the amount they should. The Packers are again a big underdog (5 points at -110 Cowboys, -110 Packers). Green Bay has struggled against marginal defenses. The Cowboys are rested coming off their bye week and not intimidated by Lambeau Field, much less for a host on a five-game losing streak. The conventional wisdom is that the Packers will find a way. If they can’t do it against the Commanders or Lions, what makes you think Dallas will lay an egg? Take the Cowboys and lay 5 points (-110).

Arizona Cardinals (off) at Los Angeles Rams (off)

Both teams are extremely banged up and a lot of big-time players didn’t practice Wednesday. That can help explain why the Over/Under is so low (41.5 points at -110 for both). Seeing as neither team has been able to run consistently or effectively, I see too many passes being thrown to keep this one that low scoring. Take the Over (-110).

Los Angeles Chargers(+245) at San Francisco 49ers (-320)

The 49ers are a big favorite because the Chargers are so unpredictable from week to week. However, the Over/Under is interesting (45 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). The 49ers at their best control the clock and force teams to play their style. Justin Herbert will get his, but this has the feel of a 23-20 type game with as many or more field goals than touchdowns. Take the Under (-105).

Washington Commanders (+360) at Philadelphia Eagles (-500)

The last time the Eagles were huge home primetime favorites, they dominated but took their foot off the gas long enough not to cover. They’re big favorites again (10.5 points at -108 Commanders, -112 Eagles). Against a division rival on its backup QB, if there’s blood in the water, the Eagles should attack. Take the Eagles and lay 10.5 points (-112).

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We have a couple of potential firsts in a long time coming at the beginning and end of Week 8 that are worth noting – one that has come to pass and one that was avoided at the 11th hour.

The first comes Thursday night when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Baltimore Ravens. The last time a Tom Brady-led team was a home underdog was Nov. 30, 2014 when Brady and the New England Patriots were a 3-point home dog to the Green Bay Packers. As of Tuesday, the Bucs were a home dog. That triggered enough Brady money coming in to flip the script and keep his streak intact.

Speaking of the Packers, in games Aaron Rodgers has started, the Packers have never been a double-digit underdog. They are this week against the Buffalo Bills, who are at home coming off their bye week.

Never say never in the NFL, because things you thought you would never see sometimes happen – or being avoided shortly before game time.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 8

Baltimore Ravens (-101) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-117)

I think those making the lines had it right earlier in the week. The Ravens opened as a 1.5 favorite, and now it’s the Bucs that are favored by 1.5 points. I’m a believer that your first instinct is your best instinct. Take the Ravens on the moneyline (-101).

Denver Broncos (+120) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-145)

Russell Wilson is apparently ready to show another continent his descent into mediocrity. The Broncos defense is very good, which should limit the Jaguars’ ability to pop points. The Over/Under is one two games under 40 points (39.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under) on the Week 8 slate. Jet lag plus two defenses better than two offenses barks loud. Take the Under (-108).

Chicago Bears (+360) at Dallas Cowboys (-500)

The Bears found a Patriots defense that they stunned Monday night. On a short week on the road again, the Cowboys are legitimate favorites (9.5 points at -110 for both). By the time the game comes around, it’s going to be double digits – for a reason. Take the Cowboys and lay 9.5 points (-110).

Arizona Cardinals (+150) at Minnesota Vikings (-190)

I’m not unconvinced the Cardinals win this game, much less being a fallback cushion (3.5 points at -110 for both the Cardinals and Vikings). What Arizona does well on offense is a defensive weakness for the Vikings. Take the Cardinals plus 3.5 points (-110).

Miami Dolphins (-190) at Detroit Lions (+150)

The Dolphins are shown a little Over/Under respect for being on the road (3.5 points at -110 for both). Detroit’s defense has no answer for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Take the Dolphins and lay 3.5 points (-110).

New England Patriots (-135) at New York Jets (+100)

Last year in the battle of rookie QBs, Bill Belichick piled on. In two games, the Patriots outscored the Jets 79-19 – never letting their foot off the gas. As a result, the Pats are a road favorite (2.5 points). Buffalo has given them a receipt. Miami did in Week 1. The Jets aren’t the little brother anymore, and the Patriots have no business being favored. Take the Jets on the moneyline (+100).

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Pittsburgh Steelers (+370) at Philadelphia Eagles (-500)

Much like the Jets being the Patriots’ little brother, the Steelers have clear bragging rights in Pennsylvania. But this is 2022, and the tables have turned. The Eagles are heavy favorites (10.5 points at -112 Steelers, -108 Eagles). This has beatdown potential for an Eagles team coming off their bye week rested and ready. Take the Eagles and lay 10.5 points (-108).

Carolina Panthers (+175) at Atlanta Falcons (-220)

A Friends and Relatives Only (FRO) game, all I can say is strongly dislike both teams. The Over/Under is low (41.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). I have a hard time figuring either of these offense putting up 30 points, which will likely be necessary. Take the Under (-115).

Las Vegas Raiders (-125) at New Orleans Saints (+102)

The Saints have fallen to being home dogs against a team that is 0-3 on the road. The Raiders are modest favorites (1.5 points at -115 Raiders, -105 Saints). Josh Jacobs is the hottest back in the league and it continues here. Take the Raiders and lay 1.5 points (-115).

Tennessee Titans (-130) at Houston Texans (+105)

The Titans have won four straight but remain peewee road favorites (2.5 points at -108 Titans, -112 Texans). Tennessee was the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and the Texans remain a dumpster fire that is easily controlled. If Derrick Henry gets 30 carries again this week, the win should be by double digits. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-108).

San Francisco 49ers (117) at Los Angeles Rams (103)

The 49ers are built to beat the teams in the NFC West. The others historically throw the ball and get off the field in a hurry. The 49ers beat the Rams consistently, which may explain why explains coming off a loss and the Rams coming off a bye the Niners are favored (1.5 points at -117 49ers, -103 Rams). It’s for a reason. Take the 49ers and lay 1.5 points (-117).

Washington Commanders (+100) at Indianapolis Colts (-125)

Not a betting fan of either team … I see more punts than scoring chances, so the very low Over/Under (39.5 points at -105 Over, -112 Under) doesn’t seem low enough. Take the Under of 39.5 points (-112).

New York Giants (+125) at Seattle Seahawks (-155)

Last week, the then 5-1 Giants were road dogs against the Jaguars and took care of business – adding road wins to those against Tennessee and Green Bay. I’ve been burned by Seattle before, but I’m willing to risk the biscuit again. Take the Giants on the moneyline (+125).

Green Bay Packers (+360) at Buffalo Bills (-500)

I’ve been clear that I’m on the Bills bandwagon, and they’re a huge favorite (11.5 points at -110 for both). The Packers are in disarray not seen in a tick, and Buffalo is coming its bye ready to kick some tail. This smells like a primetime statement to the rest of AFC. Take the Bills, swallow hard, and lay the 11.5 points (-110).

Cincinnati Bengals (-190) at Cleveland Browns (+150)

The Bengals are trying to find themselves and are solid divisional road favorites (3.5 points at -108 Bengals, -112 Browns). With some reservations, take the Bengals and lay 3.5 points (-108).

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