Tag: NFL draft history

First-round draft hit rates: Tracking rates from the best (centers) to the worst (WRs)

First-round draft hit rates: Tracking rates from the best (centers) to the worst (WRs)

When an NFL team selects a player in the first round of a draft, they’re banking on finding a long-term cornerstone building block for the franchise. It’s a hopeful investment in a player who is expected to be one of the top players on the team for years and years to come.

It doesn’t always work out that way, of course. And for some positions, it doesn’t even come close to working out that well in the long term for prospects selected in the first round.

An insightful study from ESPN producer Paul Hembekides tracked the hit rate of first-round picks by position group over a 20-year period. From 2000 through the 2019 NFL drafts, Hembekides tracked which first-round players signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. Those are considered hits; players who didn’t re-up with their drafting team are misses.

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It’s an arbitrary designation, one with some variables (injuries, trades, coaching changes, free agency), but it’s an interesting look at the positions that provide long-term staying power for teams.

The highest hit rates all involve the offensive line. Centers are the most likely position to re-sign, with 11 of the 12 first-rounders in the 20 drafts earning second contracts with their drafting team. Tackles were the only other group over 50 percent, with 38 of 64 hitting. Guards were at 50 percent.

At the other end of the spectrum, drafting a wide receiver in the first round is seldom a long-term proposition. Just 21 of the 77 first-round wideouts signed second deals with the team that drafted them, a 27 percent hit rate. Tight ends weren’t much better, with just 33 percent.

Via ESPN

Via ESPNQuarterbacks were in the middle of the pack at 46 percent, with 26 of 56 hitting.

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Every player drafted with the 43rd overall pick since 2000

NFL Draft History: Every player drafted with pick No. 43 since the year 2000

After addressing most of their top needs in free agency, the Atlanta Falcons are in good shape heading into this month’s draft. The team has the No. 8 overall pick for the third consecutive year, but there are seven rounds for a reason.

Atlanta’s next pick is No. 43 overall. Continuing our trip down memory lane, here’s a look at each player drafted at pick No. 43 going back to the year 2000:

Look: All 49 of Nick Saban’s first-round draft picks over the years

A look at all the NFL draft first-round picks over the years who ended their college careers being coached by Nick Saban

Legendary head coach Nick Saban announced his retirement this week. The longtime Alabama coach had tremendous success at the college level. He also helped produce a plethora of NFL prospects over the years at his coaching stops.

Saban coached at Alabama from 2008 to 2023, and most of the first-rounders come from that era. There were 43 Saban-coached players selected in the first round of the NFL draft between the 2009 and 2023 editions. He was also responsible for the first-round picks selected from LSU between the 2001 and 2005 drafts, as well as Michigan State from 1996 to 2000.

Here are all 49 players selected in the first round who finished their college careers being coached by Nick Saban at his various stops, from the most recent to the very first.

Who are the Eagles’ biggest draft steals of the past decade?

Josh Sweat, Jalen Hurts among the Eagles’ biggest draft steals of the past decade

After several misses in the 2019 and 2020 NFL drafts, Eagles GM Howie Roseman has hit on several high-profile picks (DeVonta Smith-Landon Dickerson), catapulting the franchise into Super Bowl contention.

Not all of Roseman’s best work has come in the early rounds.

Despite warranted criticism over the years, Philadelphia’s GM has done a solid job of landing productive talent in the later rounds.

With training camp fast approaching, we’ve highlighted six homegrown talents who have become the biggest draft steals of the past decade.

Eagles have four players land high in an ESPN ranking of the 50 biggest NFL draft steals of the past decade

The Philadelphia Eagles had four players land high in an ESPN ranking of the 50 biggest NFL draft steals of the past decade

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After a couple of misses in the 2019 and 2020 NFL drafts, Eagles GM Howie Roseman has hit on several high profile picks (DeVonta Smith-Landon Dickerson), catapulting the franchise back into Super Bowl contention.

ESPN recently took a look at the biggest draft steals and Philadelphia had four current starters make the list.

Two of the players on the list are homegrown stars, while the other two landed at the NovaCare Complex via blockbuster trades.

My 7 biggest draft misses as an evaluator and the lessons learned from them

Draft Wire’s Jeff Risdon looks back at the 7 biggest misses in his draft evaluations over the last 20 years and what he learned from them

Recently I reflected upon the top-graded players at each position in my draft evaluations since 2004. That was a fun exercise.

This trip down memory lane is not so pleasant. But it’s an important one nonetheless.

Who were my biggest misses in the draft evaluation process?

Most of these are players who I expected to be very good in the NFL but didn’t pan out. There are a couple of notable prospects where I grossly underestimated their impact at the next level, too.

The point here is to learn from the misses. Why were my evaluations off? What did I think I saw that made me miss? If you’re not trying to get better and learn from your mistakes as an evaluator, you’re destined to keep missing.

The Lions continue to spend draft capital on RBs like no other team

No other team has spent anywhere close to the amount of draft capital on RBs as the Lions since 2018

When the Detroit Lions selected Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, it came as a major surprise. Perhaps it shouldn’t have, based on the recent draft history.

Adding in Gibbs with the lofty draft pick added onto the very high emphasis Detroit has placed on the running back position in recent drafts. Based on data from Ben Baldwin, no team has spent more draft capital on running backs since 2018 than the Lions.

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In the graph below from Baldwin, it shows just how dramatically more the Lions have spent on drafting running backs than any other team in the last five years. Gibbs adds to the tally that also includes Kerryon Johnson and D’Andre Swift.

Since 2018, the Lions have drafted:

  • Kerryon Johnson, No. 43 overall in 2018
  • Ty Johnson, No. 186 in 2019
  • D’Andre Swift, No. 35 in 2020
  • Jason Huntley, No. 172 in 2020
  • Jermar Jefferson, No. 249 in 2021

Adding Gibbs at No. 12 vaults the Lions way over the top of the Seahawks, Patriots and others in draft capital devoted to RBs since 2018.

That doesn’t include free agent signings like Jamaal Williams or David Montgomery, either.

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5th round QB Clayton Tune has some historical Cardinals draft ties

5th-round QB Clayton Tune isn’t the first member of his family to be drafted by the Cardinals organization

It only made sense that the Arizona Cardinals selected Houston quarterback Clayton Tune in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL draft. Tune has a great historical draft tie to the Cardinals organization.

As related by the Cardinals media relations, Tune is the great-great nephew of Jim Lawrence. As in, the same Jim Lawrence who was the first-ever draft pick by the Cardinals franchise back in 1936.

Lawrence was a running back out of TCU when the then-Chicago Cardinals drafted him fifth overall in the inaugural NFL draft some 87 years ago. Lawrence played four seasons for the Cardinals, leading the team in rushing in 1938.

Tune gets a chance to further the family legacy in Arizona.

NFL draft history: Every player selected with the 219th pick since 2010

We’re looking at every player selected with the 219th pick in the NFL Draft since 2010

The Eagles need impact players on both sides of the ball, and with two first-round picks in this month’s draft, Howie Roseman will have another opportunity to add depth to a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

With so much parity in college football now, sixth and seventh-round picks offer an opportunity to land a solid player, but the list of No. 219 overall picks has left much to be desired.

With the NFL draft fast approaching, we’re looking at every player selected at No. 219 overall since 2010.

NFL draft history: Every player selected with the 94th overall pick since 2000

We’re looking at every prospect selected with the 94th overall pick since the 2000 NFL Draft and the Philadelphia Eagles’ chances of landing an impact player.

The Eagles need impact players on both sides of the ball, and with two first-round picks in this month’s draft, Howie Roseman will have another opportunity to add depth to a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

With so much parity in college football now, third-round picks offer an opportunity to land a dynamic player, but the list of No. 94 overall picks has left much to be desired.

With the NFL draft fast approaching, we’re looking at every player selected with the 94th pick since 2000.