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Winner winner chicken dinner: NFL parlay for Week 11

Analyzing NFL Week 11 betting odds and lines, with predictions and picks for the best parlay bet to make.

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We head into Week 11 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and we’re looking to rebound after a couple of near-misses last weekend.

The Minnesota Vikings, who were favored by 7 points, won on the road in Week 10, but they didn’t do so by enough against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a low-scoring 12-7 victory. The Vikings offense was a disaster as QB Sam Darnold had one of his worst games of the season with no TDs and 3 picks.

For the second leg last week, we trusted the Atlanta Falcons laying 3.5 points on the road, but the New Orleans Saints halted a lengthy losing streak dating back to Week 2 with a 20-17 victory over their NFC South rival.

At least our final leg came through with the host Arizona Cardinals winning 31-6 as +105 underdogs against the New York Jets, but going 1-2 on a parlay card isn’t cashing at any windows.

After looking at BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL Week 11 odds, here is our “Winner winner chicken dinner” NFL parlay bet to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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Winner winner chicken dinner NFL parlay

WEEK 11

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Leg 1: TITANS +6 (-110) vs. Vikings – 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Tennessee Titans (2-7) have been dismal against the number, going 1-8 against the spread (ATS) this season. That lone cover was a 31-12 win on a Monday night in Miami in Week 4.

As mentioned above, the Minnesota Vikings (7-2) laid an egg in Jacksonville last Sunday on a natural grass surface, winning 12-7, but they never really threatened to grab the cover.

Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been hitting on all cylinders, going for 17.7 points per game (PPG) in the past 3 games, while going 1-3 ATS in the past 4 outings. Perhaps the Vikings get it done on the road, but it might be an ugly win and non-cover like last week.

The Vikings will have their hands full against a Titans defense which allows just 273.6 total yards per game, and only 156.7 passing yards per contest.

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Leg 2: PATRIOTS +4.5 (-110) vs. Rams – 1 p.m. (FOX)

The New England Patriots (3-7) have picked up the pace in recent weeks, winning 2 of the previous 3 outings. The loss was a 20-17 overtime setback at Tennessee in Week 9. The Patriots have covered 3 in a row, too, which is the best run of the season against the number.

The Los Angeles Rams (4-5) are coming off a debilitating home loss to the Dolphins in the Week 10 Monday Night Football game, and now they face a cross-country trip on a short week. That’s a tough turnaround.

The Rams are 0-2 SU/ATS in 2 trips east of the Mississippi River this season, while going just 1-3 SU/ATS in 4 road games overall.

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Leg 3: BENGALS ML (+105) at Chargers – 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) look to solve the suffocating defense of the LA Chargers (6-3) at SoFi Stadium in a game flexed into the Sunday Night Football spot.

Cincinnati has plenty of offense, going for 75 total points in the past 2 games, but its problem has been on the defensive side of the ball. It allowed 35 points in Baltimore in a narrow loss, although Cincinnati was able to grab the cover for the fourth time in 5 games.

The Chargers have won 3 in a row, while also covering each game in the span, but that win streak is against the Saints, Cleveland Browns and Titans, 3 teams with a combined 7-21 record (.250 win percentage). Cincinnati easily has the most powerful offense that L.A. will have seen this season, and yes, that includes the Kansas City Chiefs.

PARLAY CARD

TITANS +6 (-110) vs. Vikings
PATRIOTS +4.5 (-110) vs. Rams
BENGALS ML (+105) at Chargers

Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $64.71 (payout = $74.71).

Try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Indianapolis Colts (4-6) take on the New York Jets (3-7) Sunday afternoon. Kickoff from MetLife Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Colts vs. Jets odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Colts dropped their third straight game Nov. 10 with a 30-20 failure to cover as 4.5-point dogs. QB Joe Flacco threw for 272 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs, which led the team to shift back to Anthony Richardson under center. Richardson hasn’t thrown for 200 yards since Week 2 and has 4 TDs to 7 INTs.

The Jets were grounded 31-6 by the Arizona Cardinals Nov. 10. QB Aaron Rodgers was 22-for-35 for 151 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs as he failed to move the offense. The Jets had 17 first downs to Arizona’s 28. The Jets have lost 6 of 7.

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Colts at Jets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:59 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Colts +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Jets -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Colts +4 (-110) | Jets -4 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Colts at Jets key injuries

Colts

OT Bernhard Raimann (knee) out
LB E.J. Speed (knee) questionable

Jets

WR Davante Adams (wrist, illness) probable
C Jake Hanson (hamstring) out
LB C.J. Mosley (neck) out
OT Tyron Smith (neck) out
DE Solomon Thomas (knee) questionable

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Colts at Jets picks and predictions

Prediction

Jets 17, Colts 14

Moneyline

This is one of those games that the books admit can go either way. That’s why they have the home team at -210 on the ML but just -4 on the spread. If Flacco were under center, I’d have more confidence in taking the Colts +170 here.

I’ll look to the spread instead. I’m actually going to go with JONATHAN TAYLOR OVER 81.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120) here. The last time Richardson started was against a solid Houston front, and JT had 105 rush yards.

Against the spread

I’ll take the COLTS +4 (-110) here. This really should be a little higher, but the books have hedged here, which means they agree that the Colts could make this one interesting. The Colts are one of the better teams ATS this year at 7-3.

Over/Under

It’s expected to be in the low 60s without much wind or rain for this one. So weather shouldn’t be an issue. Two flailing offenses without much of a threat in the aerial game is an issue. The Jets have cashed 2 straight Unders, and the Colts have hit 4 of 5 Unders.

Take the UNDER 43.5 (-110).

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) and Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) face off Sunday in an AFC North rivalry matchup. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Ravens vs. Steelers odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Baltimore narrowly escaped with a 35-34 win over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football while failing to cover as a 6-point favorite. QB Lamar Jackson tossed 4 TD passes — 3 in the fourth quarter — to continue his MVP campaign and come away with the win. The Ravens have put up at least 30 points in 6 of their 7 wins this season.

Pittsburgh was able to come away with a tight 28-27 home win over the Washington Commanders Sunday while covering as a 2.5-point underdog. The Steelers outscored Washington 7-0 in the fourth quarter on a 32-yard TD pass from QB Russell Wilson to WR Mike Williams. Pittsburgh’s 312-242 advantage in the yardage battle proved to be enough to overcome its 2 turnovers.

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Ravens at Steelers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Ravens -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Steelers +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
Against the spread (ATS): Ravens -3 (-115) | Steelers +3 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Ravens at Steelers key injuries

Ravens

DT Travis Jones (ankle) questionable
CB Arthur Maulet (calf) out

Steelers

LB Alex Highsmith (ankle) out
RB Jaylen Warren (back) questionable

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Ravens at Steelers picks and predictions

Prediction

Ravens 28, Steelers 27

Moneyline

PASS.

I like the Ravens (-175) to win, but this line is too high for me to recommend, as the risk is not worth the reward. Pass, and bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

BET STEELERS +3 (-105).

Pittsburgh has covered the spread in each of its last 4 games and is 7-2 ATS this season. The Steelers are also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, including 3 straight covers by Pittsburgh.

This is among the most infamous rivalries in the NFL, so I expect this to be a close game no matter what, as both teams have been very good this season.

Over/Under

BET OVER 48.5 (-110).

The Over has hit in each of Baltimore’s last 6 games and is 9-1 for the Ravens this year. For Pittsburgh, the Over is 4-0 in its last 4 games and 5-1 in its last 6.

The Ravens have the best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 31.8 points per game, so look for their offense to help the Over hit.

Since Baltimore’s defense is not as stellar this season as it has been in years past, the Over here is a very safe bet.

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Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) and Miami Dolphins (3-6) meet Sunday. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Raiders vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Raiders have lost 5 straight games. They’re coming off a 41-24 loss at the Cincinnati Bengals Nov. 3 as 8-point underdogs.

The Dolphins snapped a 3-game skid with a 23-15 win at the LA Rams Monday as 2-point underdogs. QB Tua Tagovailoa was 20-of-28 passing for 207 yards with a TD and an INT while K Jason Sanders went 3-for-3 on his field-goal attempts.

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Raiders at Dolphins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Raiders +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Dolphins -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Raiders +7.5 (-115) | Dolphins -7.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 44 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Raiders at Dolphins key injuries

Raiders

TE Harrison Bryant (ankle) out
CB Nate Hobbs (ankle) out
C Andre James (ankle) out
TE Michael Mayer (personal) questionable
G Cody Whitehair (ankle) out

Dolphins

OT Terron Armstead (knee) questionable
CB Kendall Fuller (concussion) out
FB Alec Ingold (calf) questionable
OL Robert Jones (knee) questionable
S Patrick McMorris (calf) questionable
OL Isaiah Wynn (quad, knee) questionable

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Raiders at Dolphins picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 31, Raiders 17

Moneyline

The Dolphins (-350) are 1-2 since Tagovailoa’s return from IR. But their 2 losses were to the 6-4 Arizona Cardinals by 1 point (28-27, Oct. 27) and the 8-2 Buffalo Bills by 3 points (30-27, Nov. 3).

They are averaging 25.7 points per game since his return, and the Raiders have allowed 27 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games.

Miami should win going away, but -350 odds are not worth the action.

PASS.

Against the spread

The Raiders have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. They only average 18.7 points per game this season.

Miami found its pass rush in Week 10, sacking Rams QB Matthew Stafford 4 times.

BET DOLPHINS -7.5 (-105).

Over/Under

Four of the last 5 games for the Raiders have had totals above 44 points.

Two of the 3 games since Tagovailoa’s return have had totals in the 50s.

BET OVER 44 (-110).

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Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Cleveland Browns (2-7) and the New Orleans Saints (3-7) meet Sunday for a Week 11 game at Caesars Superdome. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Browns vs. Saints odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Browns suffered a 27-10 loss at home against the L.A. Chargers in Week 9 before the bye week. It splashed cold water on the team’s momentum after a shocking 29-24 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8 as a 7-point underdog in the first start by QB Jameis Winston.

Winston returns to New Orleans, where he spent 4 seasons from 2020-23, playing in 21 games. His finest season as a Saint came in 2021 when he threw for 1,170 yards, 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions with a career-best 102.8 QB Rating.

The Browns are 1-3 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS) in 4 road games this season, while going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in 4 games against NFC opponents. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games, and 6-2 in the previous 8 outings.

The Saints halted a 7-game losing streak with a 20-17 victory over the Atlanta Falcons last weekend as a 3.5-point underdog as the Under (47) cashed.

New Orleans is winless in 3 tries against AFC foes in 2024, while going 0-3 ATS. At home, the Saints are 1-3 SU/ATS in the past 4 tries, while the Over is 3-2 in 5 games at Caesars Superdome this season.

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Browns at Saints odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 2 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Browns -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Saints -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Browns -1.5 (-102) | Saints +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Browns at Saints key injuries

Browns

DT Mike Hall Jr. (knee) out

Saints

DB J.T. Gray (hip) questionable
C Erik McCoy (groin) questionable
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (hamstring) questionable
OG Lucas Patrick (ankle) out
LB Nephi Sewell (knee) questionable
LB Pete Werner (hand) questionable
RB Jamaal Williams (groin) out
WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. (shoulder) questionable

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Browns at Saints picks and predictions

Prediction

Saints 22, Browns 19

Moneyline

SAINTS (-104) are worth a look as short ‘dogs at home.

While the Browns (-112) are rested and healthy, coming off a bye in Week 10, this is a team which was spanked the last time we saw them against the Chargers at home.

New Orleans heads into this game with a little momentum after finding a way to get the job done against Atlanta last weekend.

Against the spread

Backing Saints +1.5 (-120) makes absolutely no sense unless you’re totally convinced that the Browns -1.5 (-102) will win, but only by a single point.

If you like New Orleans, AVOID, and simply bet the Saints straight up on the moneyline for a much better value.

Over/Under

UNDER 44.5 (-112) might be the best play on the board in this Week 11 offering.

The Cleveland offense has scored 18 or fewer points in all but one of its games to date. On the road, Cleveland is averaging just 15.7 PPG, while the Under is 3-1 in those 4 outings.

For New Orleans, the offense has managed just 15.0 PPG in the past 4 games, while the defense has allowed 26 or fewer points in 3 in a row.

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LA Rams at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s LA Rams at New England Patriots odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The New England Patriots (3-7) will host the Los Angeles Rams (4-5) Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium, a Week 11 matchup between 2 teams that have met in the Super Bowl twice before. Kickoff will be at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) from Foxborough, Mass. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Rams vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Rams had won 3 games in a row before losing to the Miami Dolphins Monday night, a 23-15 defeat in which they scored zero touchdowns. It was the 1st time all season that the Rams didn’t find the end zone, and they lost despite outgaining the Dolphins, 327-238. The Rams now sit in last place in the NFC West, a game-and-a-half behind the division-leading Arizona Cardinals.

The Patriots are building some momentum after winning 2 of their last 3 games, including a 19-3 victory on the road against the Chicago Bears last week. Rookie QB Drake Maye is getting comfortable under center for New England and his mobility has helped keep the chains moving (38.8 rushing yards per game).

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Rams at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:55 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rams -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Patriots +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Against the spread (ATS): Rams -4.5 (-110) | Patriots +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Rams at Patriots key injuries

Rams

DT Neville Gallimore (neck) out
RT Rob Havenstein (ankle) out
OL Joe Noteboom (ankle) doubtful

Patriots

S Kyle Dugger (ankle) probable
TE Hunter Henry (foot) probable
DE Deatrich Wise Jr. (foot) questionable

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Rams at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Rams 24, Patriots 17

Moneyline

The Rams aren’t a trustworthy enough team to take on the money line, especially at a number like -225 on the road. PASS.

Against the spread

In Sean McVay’s career since 2017, the Rams are 10-3 in games in the Eastern time zone that kick off at 1 p.m. The Rams have won 4 of those games by at least 20 points and 2 others by at least 8 points.

They excel in these cross-country games, and even though they’re on slightly less rest than the Patriots, they’re going to get the job done and beat the Patriots by 5-plus points. BET RAMS -4.5 (-110).

Over/Under

With how inconsistent the Rams’ offense has been and the Patriots’ sheer inability to score points in bunches, this should be a lower-scoring game. The Rams can be susceptible to big plays in the passing game, particularly in the first quarter when they’re settling in, but if they can eliminate those lapses in coverage, they’ll keep the Patriots offense in check.

BET UNDER 43.5 (-110).

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Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Minnesota Vikings (7-2) and Tennessee Titans (2-7) meet in Week 11 Sunday. Kickoff from Nissan Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Vikings vs. Titans odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Vikings secured a gritty 12-7 victory over Jacksonville but fell short of covering as 7-point road favorites, with the Under 42 cashing easily. QB Sam Darnold threw 3 interceptions, and All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson was held to a season-low 5 catches for 48 yards. The Vikings’ defense carried the day, limiting the Jaguars to just 7 points and forcing 3 turnovers to preserve the win.

The Titans endured their 4th loss in 5 games, dropping a 27-17 contest to the Chargers. Tennessee didn’t cover the 8-point road underdog spread, but the Over 40 was reached. QB Will Levis had a solid outing, going 18-for-23 with 175 yards and 2 touchdowns, both hauled in by WR Calvin Ridley.

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Vikings at Tennessee odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:48 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Vikings -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Tennessee +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Against the spread (ATS): Vikings -6 (-110) | Tennessee +6 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 39.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Vikings at Tennessee key injuries

Vikings

LB Gabriel Murphy (knee) out

Titans

CB L’Jarius Snead (quad) out
OL Leroy Watson (back) out

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Vikings at Tennessee picks and predictions

Prediction

Vikings 24, Titans 20

Moneyline

PASS.

The Vikings (-250) are the better team and should win, but I expect the Titans to keep it close. I’ll take Tennessee to cover the spread.

Against the spread

BET TITANS +6 (-110).

I’m going against the grain with this one. The Titans have covered only once in 9 games this season and have failed to cover in 4 consecutive home outings, including an overtime win against the Patriots. Despite those struggles, Sam Darnold’s recent play has been underwhelming, especially against Jacksonville’s bottom-tier pass defense. Tennessee has the pieces to make this game competitive, which is why I’m backing the Titans to cover the spread at home.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 39.5 (-110).

The Titans have stayed Under or pushed the point total in 3 of 4 home games this season, failing to score more than 17 points in any of them. Tennessee’s defense remains a bright spot, ranking highly in yards allowed per game, which could slow the Vikings’ attack. However, the Titans offense continues to struggle, ranking near the bottom of the league, while Minnesota’s top-10 defense has held opponents to 13 points or fewer in consecutive games. With both teams showing trends toward lower-scoring outcomes, this matchup points to a defensive battle Sunday.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) and Detroit Lions (8-1) meet Sunday in Week 11. Kickoff from Ford Field is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Jaguars vs. Lions odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions..

Jacksonville dropped their 3rd straight game, falling 12-7 to the Vikings. Despite the loss, the Jaguars covered as 7-point home underdogs, with the Under 42 cashing. It was a sloppy contest as QB Sam Darnold threw 3 interceptions for Minnesota, but Jaguars backup QB Mac Jones, filling in for injured QB Trevor Lawrence, struggled as well, tossing 2 interceptions of his own.

The Lions extended their win streak to 7 games, edging out the Houston Texans 26-23. They didn’t cover as 4-point road favorites, and the game pushed on the 49-point total. Despite QB Jared Goff throwing 5 interceptions, Detroit managed to hold on, with 2 clutch 50-plus-yard field goals from kicker Jake Bates in the 4th quarter securing the victory.

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Jaguars at Lions odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Jaguars +650 (bet $100 to win $650) | Lions -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Jaguars +13.5 (-105) | Lions -13.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 47 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Jaguars at Lions key injuries

Jaguars

RB Tank Bigsby (ankle) out
OL Ezra Cleveland (ankle) questionable
QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) out
RB Keilan Robinson (toe) questionable
DT Maason Smith (ankle) questionable

Lions

TE Sam LaPorta (shoulder) out
DT Brodric Martin (knee) out
S Ifeatu Melifonwu (ankle/finger) out
CB Emmanuel Moseley (hamstring) out
LB Ben Niemann (ankle) questionable

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Jaguars at Lions picks and predictions

Prediction

Lions 38, Jaguars 17

Moneyline

PASS.

The Lions (-1000) are set to win and comfortably cover the 2 touchdowns. I have no doubts about their ability to dominate, so I’m backing them to cover the spread.

Against the spread

BET LIONS -13.5 (-115).

With Lawrence and Bigsby both out, the Jaguars are in trouble, especially with Jones taking over as quarterback. He struggled in his last start with a 0:2 TD/INT ratio. While Jacksonville has covered in 4 straight, they’re up against a powerhouse in the Lions. Detroit ranks second in the league for scoring (31.6 PPG) and has covered 6 of their last 7. Facing a Jaguars defense that allows the most yards per game (390.6 YAPG), this game has all the makings of a blowout.

Over/Under

BET OVER 47 (-110).

After last week’s 12-7 result between the Vikings and Jaguars, it’s hard to say, but I’m leaning toward the Over. That game broke a 7-game streak of Overs for Jacksonville. The Lions, however, could hit the over on their own, as they’ve scored 42+ points in a third of their games and average 31.6 points per game. Jacksonville’s defense has major issues, ranking near the bottom in key categories like completion percentage allowed (69.9%) and passing yards allowed per game (261.2). With the Lions’ explosive offense, this game has all the makings of a blowout, and the over seems like a solid pick.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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NFL public betting: Percentages & money splits

Here’s some public betting data for the full slate of Week 11 NFL games and various futures markets.

Below, bettors can find public betting data for the full slate of Week 11 games and various futures markets.

For clarity, public support is defined as when a side receives more than 51% of all tickets. In terms of the futures markets, it’s defined as the side that receives a plurality of tickets.

Bettors can identify sharp support when a team receives more money compared to their ticket count.

With that established, let’s get to this week’s data based on NFL betting lines from the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Packers at Bears (opening spread Packers -6, current spread Packers -5.5): Packers 83% bets placed, Packers 85% money wagered
Lions vs. Jaguars (opening spread Lions -12.5, current spread Lions -14): Lions 85% bets placed, Lions 95% money wagered
Vikings at Titans (opening spread Vikings -6.5, current spread Vikings -6): Vikings 76% bets placed, Vikings 61% money wagered
Dolphins vs. Raiders (opening spread Dolphins -7, current spread Dolphin -7.5): Raiders 56% bets placed, Raiders 67% money wagered
Rams at Patriots (opening spread Rams -6, current spread Rams -4.5): Rams 57% bets placed, Patriots 55% money wagered
Saints vs. Browns (opening spread Saints -2.5, current spread Browns -1): Browns 51% bets placed, Browns 67% money wagered
Jets vs. Colts (opening spread Jets -3.5, current spread Jets -4): Colts 72% bets placed, Colts 62% money wagered
Ravens vs. Steelers (opening spread Ravens -3, current spread Ravens -3): Ravens 53% bets placed, Ravens 55% money wagered
Broncos vs. Falcons (opening spread Broncos -1.5, current spread Broncos -2): Broncos 62% bets placed, Broncos 60% money wagered
49ers vs. Seahawks (opening spread 49ers -7, current spread 49ers -6.5): 49ers 69% bets placed, 49ers 66% money wagered
Bills vs. Chiefs (opening spread Chiefs -1.5, current spread Bills -2.5): Chiefs 62% bets placed, Chiefs 61% money wagered
Chargers vs. Bengals (opening spread Chargers -2.5, current spread Chargers -1.5): Bengals 65% bets placed, Bengals 79% money wagered
Cowboys vs. Texans (opening spread Texans -7, current spread Texans -7.5): Texans 74% bets placed, Texans 77% money wagered

Based on public betting data for Week 11, the Detroit Lions (-14) are predicted to cover the spread.

Detroit is once again a double-digit favorite. After closing a 12.5-point favorite against Tennessee earlier this season, they’re a two-touchdown favorite against a Jaguars team that’s covered four straight.

But bettors believe Jacksonville’s ATS streak ends in Detroit. As of Friday morning, Detroit has received 85% of bets placed and 95% of all money wagered to cover the spread.

Detroit isn’t the only NFC North favorite attracting loads of betting attention. Both the Packers (-5.5) and Vikings (-6) have eclipsed 75% of bets to cover the spread.

All told, favorites have received a majority of spread tickets in nine of the 13 remaining contests in Week 11.

Of those nine teams, six have received at least 60%. Those teams are Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Denver, San Francisco and Houston.

The most popular underdog in terms of bets placed percentage is the Colts (+4) against the Jets. Indianapolis, which returns to Anthony Richardson on Sunday, dropped from +3.5 to +4 despite receiving 72% of bets to cover.

Additionally, the Chiefs (+2) and Bengals (+1.5) are public underdogs against the Bills and Chargers, respectively.

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NFL Public betting: Super Bowl 59 futures

As of Nov. 12, the Detroit Lions (+450) are the public Super Bowl futures side at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

The Lions have received 15.8% of bets placed and 17.3% of money wagered. In terms of bets placed, that figure is up slightly from 14.7% of bets placed on Oct. 29.

Here are a few other popular teams based on their current ticket percentage:

Kansas City Chiefs (+400): 12.9% of bets placed (+0.2% since Oct. 29)
Baltimore Ravens (+600): 8.2% of bets placed (+0.1%)
San Francisco 49ers (+900): 6.1% of bets placed (-0.1%)
Buffalo Bills (+750): 5.3% of bets placed (+0.2%)
Philadelphia Eagles (+1000): 4.9% of bets placed (no change)
Cincinnati Bengals (+4000): 4.3% of bets placed (-0.2%)
Green Bay Packers (+2200): 4% of bets placed (-0.2%)
All other teams: Less than 3.9% of bets placed

NFL sharp betting: Super Bowl 59 futures

A few teams can be identified as sharply supported based on their handle percentages in the futures market.

The Lions, for one, have received a higher money percentage than their ticket count. As a result, they’re the first sharp target.

Three other teams have received a higher handle percentages compared to their bets percentage: Kansas City, Baltimore and San Francisco.

The Chiefs have received 14.7% of all money wagered in the Super Bowl 59 futures market compared to 12.9% of all bets placed.

As for the 49ers, they’ve accounted for only 6.1% of all bets placed in the market compared to 7.8% of all dollars wagered.

Finally, the Ravens have emerged as a sharp target. As of Nov. 12, Baltimore has received 8.2% of all bets placed compared to 10.8% of all money wagered, down from 11.1% since Oct. 29.

NFL public betting: AFC championship

Largely, there’s a strong correlation between teams’ Super Bowl futures trends and their percentages to claim their respective conference.

Beginning with the AFC, here are the top teams in terms of their bets percentages as of Nov. 12.

Kansas City Chiefs (+185): 19.4% of bets placed (+0.5% since Oct. 29)
Baltimore Ravens (+260): 12% of bets placed (+0.1%)
New York Jets (+8000): 9.9% of bets placed (-0.3%)
Cincinnati Bengals (+2200): 8.6% of bets placed (-0.1%)
Houston Texans (+1200): 7.9% of bets placed (-0.3%)
Buffalo Bills (+375): 7.6% of bets placed (+0.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1300): 6.7% of bets placed (+0.6%)
Cleveland Browns (+75000): 5.9% of bets placed (no change)
All other teams: Under 4.5% of bets placed

NFL public betting: NFC championship

Detroit Lions (+190): 35.5% of bets placed (+1.6% since Oct. 29)
Green Bay Packers (+1000): 9.2% of bets placed (-0.7%)
San Francisco 49ers (+500): 9.1% of bets placed (-0.3%)
Philadelphia Eagles (+500): 9% of bets placed (+0.1%)
Chicago Bears (+12500): 7.5% of bets placed (-0.8%)
All other teams: Under 5% of bets placed

NFL sharp betting, conference championship

A new team has emerged as the sharp target in the AFC following Week 5: the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore has received 12% of bets placed to win the conference. That puts them second to the Kansas City Chiefs in terms of bets placed.

However, the Ravens have amassed 47.4% of money wagered to win the conference. That’s by far the most money accumulated to win the AFC.

No other team has outperformed their bets percentage in terms of money wagered, rendering the Ravens the only sharp target.

In terms of the NFC, two teams have outperformed their bets percentage: Detroit and San Francisco.

The Lions, which have amassed the most bets to win the NFC, are sitting on 42.4% of all money wagered to win the conference. Additionally, the 49ers have amassed 11.2% of all money wagered on 9.1% of bets placed.

Those teams account for a majority of all money wagered while the other 14 account for under 50%. Amongst the Lions, 49ers, Packers and Eagles, they’ve combined to account for 70.6% of all money wagered to win the NFC.

NFL public betting: Division winners

AFC East winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Buffalo Bills (-3000)

Highest nets placed: New York Jets 42.1%

Highest money wagered: New York Jets 54.1%

AFC North winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Baltimore Ravens (-190)
Highest bets placed: Pittsburgh Steelers 35.4%
Highest money wagered: Baltimore Ravens 38.4%

AFC South winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Houston Texans (-1200)
Highest bets placed: Houston Texans 36.3%
Highest money wagered: Houston Texans 47.8%

AFC West Winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (-5000)
Highest bets placed: Kansas City Chiefs 34.6%
Highest money wagered: Kansas City Chiefs 90.3%

NFC East winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Philadelphia Eagles (-120)
Highest bets placed: Washington Commanders 43.2%
Highest money wagered: Philadelphia Eagles 72.8%

NFC North winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Detroit Lions (-140)
Highest bets placed: Detroit Lions 49.7%
Highest money wagered: Detroit Lions 70.9%

NFC South winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Atlanta Falcons (-400)
Highest bets placed: Carolina Panthers 40.2%
Highest money wagered: Carolina Panthers 36.4%

NFC West winner: Public betting

Current favorite: San Francisco 49ers (-125)
Highest bets placed: Seattle Seahawks 28.5%
Highest money wagered: San Francisco 49ers 48.9%

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Washington Commanders (7-3) take on the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from Lincoln Financial Field is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Commanders vs. Eagles odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Commanders fell 28-27 to the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday to snap a 3-game winning streak. QB Jayden Daniels threw for 202 yards. He completed 5 passes for 113 yards to WR Terry McLaurin. RB Austin Ekeler ran 13 times for 44 yards and 2 scores.

The Eagles won their fifth straight with a 34-6 domination of the Dallas Cowboys Sunday. QB Jalen Hurts threw for 202 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He and some of the starters left the game early because it was out of reach in the third quarter. The Eagles enter this game without anyone with an injury status.

Commanders at Eagles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:46 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Commanders +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Eagles -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +3.5 (-115) | Eagles -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Commanders at Eagles key injuries

Commanders

OT Brandon Coleman (shoulder) questionable
CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) out
OT Cornelius Lucas (shoulder) questionable
PK Austin Seibert (hip) out
OT Andrew Wylie (shoulder) questionable

Eagles

None

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Commanders at Eagles picks and predictions

Prediction

Eagles 31, Commanders 24

Moneyline

The Eagles are healthy, and Daniels really hasn’t been the same player since sustaining that rib injury. He ran just 3 times for 5 yards last week. I like Philadelphia here, but not at this price.

Instead, take JAYDEN DANIELS UNDER 44.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110).

Against the spread

If Lattimore were able to go to check either WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith, I would consider taking the Commanders’ side of the spread. However, they’re just spread too thin because of injuries. Brown, Smith and RB Saquon Barkley are going to knife through this defense as EAGLES -3.5 (-105) cashes.

Over/Under

The Commanders are 7-3 O/U this season, and the Eagles are 2-1 O/U in their last 3 games. That window was right around when their receivers started getting healthy.

This is a very hittable number. I’ll take the OVER 48.5 (-110).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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