The Cowboys managed to pick up a much needed win against the Rams. Here are the biggest plays of the game with advanced stats via nflscrapR.
It was a much needed victory on Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys emerged with a 44-21 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Prior to the start of the game, the Philadelphia Eagles briefly stood in first place in the NFC East after their narrow, 37-27 win against the Washington Redskins. This made the situation all the more dire for the Cowboys, who had been on a three-game losing skid.
Dallas rose to the occasion, retaking their lead in the division and returning to .500 with a record of 7-7. In a contest that was not particularly close, here are the biggest plays of the game using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) models from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.
The Plays
No. 1 Dak Prescott pass deep middle to Amari Cooper for 19 yards
EPA: 3.1. DAL WP Shift: 50% to 59%
The Cowboys’ first big play of the game came on their second possession. Facing a third-and-10 situation, the Cowboys were able to convert thanks to a well placed pass from Prescott to Cooper for a 19-yard gain. On the play the Rams were in zone coverage, with cornerback Jalen Ramsey lined up on Cooper. Ramsey might have been expecting help on the play, as Cooper was able to find the void in the middle of the defense for a huge gain.
No. 2 Prescott pass short right to Jason Witten for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN
EPA: 3.7. DAL WP Shift: 58% to 71%
Following Cooper’s big catch the Cowboys’ second drive would end with a 19-yard touchdown from Prescott to Witten. The play featured Witten matched up against safety Marqui Christian. Witten was able to separate from the defender on a simple out route.
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His touchdown came on an impressive one-handed catch, putting the Cowboys up 7-0 near the end of the first quarter.
No. 3 Prescott pass deep left to Tavon Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN
EPA: 5.2. DAL WP Shift: 53% to 71%
The Rams picked up a touchdown on a short 2-yard pass from Jared Goff to Todd Gurley at the start of the second quarter. It wasn’t long before the Cowboys would regain the lead. On their ensuing drive it only took three plays for them to score on the most explosive play of the game, a 59-yard touchdown pass from Prescott to Austin.
Austin ran a crossing route down the middle of the field, but two Rams defenders ran into each other, both being essentially knocked out of the play. It explains why this play is the most “open” deep completion of the season according to Next Gen Stats.
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No. 4 Johnny Hekker punts 67 yards to DAL 3-yard line
EPA: 2.0. DAL WP Shift: 78% to 69%
It is odd to see how one of the biggest plays of the game for the Rams is a punt, but that is exactly the case. Back at their own 30-yard line, Hekker unloaded a lengthy punt that was downed at the Cowboys’ 3-yard line. From where the Cowboys started their next drive the Expected Points from this part of the field was minus-0.8, meaning from this position, the opposing team was in better scoring position.
No. 5 Goff pass short middle intended for Robert Woods, INTERCEPTED by Sean Lee
EPA: -4.6. DAL WP Shift: 88% to 94%
After the huge punt from Hekker the Cowboys moved the ball down the length of the field. The drive spanned 14 plays, 97 yards gained and six first downs in total. It would end with a 1-yard rushing touchdown from Ezekiel Elliott giving the Cowboys a 21-7 lead with the half drawing to a close.
When the Rams received the ball late in the second quarter their WP stood at a meager 13%. In order to have a chance, they needed to come away with some points on their next drive. However, any hope of a possible comeback would be short lived.
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On this play the Cowboys were in zone coverage, Lee was responsible for the middle zone. After the snap Goff appeared to be targeting Woods on a in-breaking route. Lee picked up on this and was able to jump the route for what would be a 25-yard interception return.
The Cowboys started their next drive with excellent field position at the Rams’ 9-yard line. After a 3-yard rushing touchdown from Elliott, the score was 28-7 to end the half. The Rams’ WP bottomed at 3% and the game was never competitive from this point on.
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