Here’s how the 4-7 Jets can make the playoffs

The Jets need to win their remaining five games to have a chance at the playoffs, and even then they’d need a lot of other teams to lose.

Here’s a sentence no one expected to read a month ago: The Jets have a shot at the NFL postseason.

It’s a slim shot – FiveThirtyEight.com says they have less than a 1 percent chance as of Week 12 – but its better than being mathematically eliminated. 

With five games left, the Jets could theoretically finish the season 9-7– an idea that seemed ludicrous when the Jets dropped to 1-7 after a devasting loss to the Dolphins on Nov. 3. But it will take a lot of work for the Jets to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

Not only must New York win all five of its remaining games – including games against the Ravens, Steelers and Bills to end the season – but the Jets will need the six teams ahead of them in the playoff hunt to lose in strategic ways to catapult Gang Green into the final wild card spot (assuming the Bills don’t implode down the stretch and fail to grab the first spot).

Though the Jets are technically only two games out of the postseason after Week 12, the Steelers, Colts, Titans and Raiders are all tied at 6-5 for the eighth-seed in the AFC ahead of the Jets. The Browns (5-6) and Jaguars (4-7) are also ahead of the Jets in the standings because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Chargers (4-7) are also in the hunt.

Basically, even if the Jets win out and finish 9-7, they aren’t a lock for the playoffs.

First, the Jets will need all the wild card hunting teams to finish with a 9-7 or worse record. If any team finishes with at least 10 wins, the Jets are out. 

Next, the Jets would need the Browns and Jaguars to both finish worse than 9-7 since they both beat the Jets this season and would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Things only get more complicated from there.

If the Jets somehow finish ahead of the Jaguars and Browns, they’ll also need all the teams in the hunt to lose as many AFC games as possible if they finish with the same record as the Jets, since conference wins are the second tiebreaker for teams who haven’t played each other. By season’s end, that’ll only apply to the Colts and Titans since the Jets play the Steelers in Week 16. Obviously, the Jets need to win that match against the Steelers to even make the playoffs, and therefore would win the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.

The most conference wins the Jets can finish with is six, while the Colts already have five and the Titans have four. If the Jets and Colts finish with identical records and conference records, the Jets would actually win the common games tiebreaker. The Titans, then, can’t finish with more than five conference wins.

There are too many games left on the schedule to break down every possible scenario, but the Jets will be hoping the teams that they lost to earlier in the season – the Browns and Jaguars  – lose as many games as possible, and every other team in the hunt loses either common games with the Jets or conference games.

Some of these teams actually play each other, which is where things get even weirder. 

For example, it would be advantageous for the Browns to lose to the Steelers, another team tying for a playoff spot, so long as both teams continue to lose down the stretch and the Jets beat the Steelers in Week 16. It’s the opposite situation for a team like the Raiders, who the Jets need to beat another playoff-hunting team like the Titans, so long as the Raiders don’t finish with a record better than 9-7.

This all boils down to one thing: There are almost too many scenarios where the Jets would or wouldn’t make the playoffs to count. The only thing the team can and should focus on is the one thing they can control – winning games.

New York needs to win out, and it will have a great shot the next two weeks against the winless Bengals in Week 13 and the lowly Dolphins in Week 14. It gets much harder after that, though, as the Jets face the mighty Ravens in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football followed by the Steelers and Bills to close out the year.

The Ravens game will determine the Jets’ true ability to both make and compete in the postseason. Right now, the idea of the Jets making the playoffs is a joke. Everyone laughed when Sam Darnold mentioned the Jets playoff hopes following their win over the Giants, and it’s still a longshot two wins later. But if they beat one of the best teams in the league on the road in primetime, the Jets can finally stake their claim to true competency.

Can the Jets make the playoffs? The math certainly allows it. But will the Jets make the playoffs? That’s only something the team and the football gods can answer with a little over a month to play in the 2019 season.

Bengals are home underdogs against surging Jets

The Bengals are home underdogs against the Jets in Week 13.

The Cincinnati Bengals moving back to Andy Dalton under center hasn’t had a big impact on the odds for the team’s Week 13 game against the New York Jets.

While the odds are a little friendlier than last week’s 6.5-point line with the Pittsburgh Steelers in town, it’s notable the Bengals are 3.5-point underdogs against the Jets, according to BetMGM.

Cincinnati’s decision to go back to Dalton over rookie Ryan Finley hasn’t moved the needle much. Neither has a defense slowly showing signs of life and a running game that finally seems to be on the right track.

Rest assured the Jets play a role in this too. The Sam Darnold-led squad is on a three-game tear where the offense has put up 34 points in each triumph.

After some early-season oddities like Darnold falling ill, the Jets have somewhat corrected course to 4-7. It helps the league’s best run defense is only permitting 78.1 rushing yards per game, not to mention just 23.5 points.

The Bengals continue to grasp at anything to help avoid 0-16, but the odds here are understandable as one of New York’s biggest strengths happens to counter one of the only things the Cincinnati offense has done well lately.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Week 13: How to survive and advance in your knockout pool

What teams look like smart plays in Week 13 of the NFL season in your knockout pool?

Triskaidekaphobia: 

tris-kahy-dek-uhfoh-bee-uh: fear or a phobia concerning the number 13.
Can’t blame anyone who has a case of it this week if you are alive in your knockout pool. Week 13 brings us three games on Thanksgiving and the rest on the usual Sunday slate with Monday featuring Minnesota at Seattle in a sharp matchup. Beware the trap of Week 13!

Don’t think about it

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Mitchell Trubisky vs. Jeff Driskel will give you indigestion before you sit down for your Thanksgiving meal. Try and watch the Bears at Lions and realize how much quarterbacking means in the NFL. On the other end of the QB spectrum is MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens playing host to Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. This matchup is splendid and deserves total focus and no thought of using either team. The Titans and the Colts are an AFC South tussle that figures to be tight and neither team is predictable enough to bank on. The Browns visit the Steelers. The teams have to be on their best behavior. Yes, Cleveland is on a roll but expect Pittsburgh to be fired up after the way the first meeting ended. Way to risky. The same goes for the Buccaneers at the Jaguars. The only certainties here are Jameis Winston will throw for 300 yards and multiple interceptions. The Patriots and Texans hook up in a Sunday night battle in Texas. New England is 10-1 and in the midst of a brutal stretch of their schedule. All that means is Bill Belichick will have the Pats primed and there is no guarantee Deshaun Watson will solve that incredible defense. The Vikings head to Seattle for a Monday night battle that should be watched and not played in a knockout pool.

Top 5 offensive lines of Week 12: Titans of the trench, protectors of Jimmy G, and that’s so Ravens

From Los Angeles to the Big Apple via New Jersey, here were the top 5 O-lines from Week 12.

Week 12 in the NFL was the stuff of legend, beginning with a grand entrance that reminded fan bases that November—up to this point—had been just as wild as October.

Selfies were snapped in Week 12, with an excited rookie QB, Dwayne Haskins, not realizing the Redskins had unfinished business against Detroit. (Luckily, Haskins didn’t hit anyone over the head with their phone, or worse, update it to the newest iOS.) The Steelers called on a “Duck” in Week 12, while the Cowboys inexplicably called on the kicking unit. And top of the favorites list was the Packers, reminding the football-watching world that some things are simply more significant and far more critical than seeding in the NFC:

The offensive lines kept on trudging through all of the organized chaos, too—diving, pulling here and there, and doing their collective parts to move the chains while keeping the quarterback upright and minimally pressured. From Los Angeles to the Big Apple via New Jersey, here were the top 5 O-lines from Week 12.

5. Tennessee Titans

Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The Jaguars rolled into the Music City with a run-stopping defense that was a little light on the “stopping” part, which left them more of a blinking sign that just read: Run!

And run—run, run!—is precisely what the Titans did, and did very well.

Tennessee’s running attack racked up 219 yards and four touchdowns, with Derrick Henry bulldozing his way for over half of the grand total (159 yards) and two scores. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill continued his impressive Act II as the Titans stater, hitting on 14 of 18 passes for two touchdowns, while also adding another two scores on the ground.

New to the rankings, the Titans’ O-line was solid the entire game. Yes, this was Jacksonville and not the Patriots, 49ers or even a loosely roped-off door. But still, they created time for Tannehill while opening lanes for Henry. They didn’t fall victim to any creative schemes nor did they spend the afternoon shaking their head while the referee yelled out their name while making the universally accepted signal for “holding.”

And, of course, nothing seals the deal—on this ranking, anyway—better than…offensive lineman touchdowns!

Ben Jones, Rodger Saffold, Jake Conklin, Tyler Lewan, Nate Davis, and Dennis Kelly: A forced fumble during the lone sack surrendered on the day is not enough to neglect you guys the collective shine for a job well done.

Rex Ryan: Daniel Jones is much better than Sam Darnold

Rex Ryan believes that New York Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones is much better than New York Jets QB Sam Darnold.

As the New York Giants continue to disappoint their fans, the same old debate rages: did general manager Dave Gettleman make a mistake by selecting Saquon Barkley in the 2018 NFL Draft as opposed to Sam Darnold, only to be stuck with Daniel Jones in 2019?

Some certainly believe that to be the case (even some select authors at Giants Wire), but former Jets head coach Rex Ryan is not among them.

During a segment on ESPN’s “Get Up” on Monday, Ryan was asked which of the two quarterbacks was better and he didn’t even hesitate.

“He is better. Daniel Jones is better,” Ryan said. “I think (Darnold) is a heck of a player, he’s got to get better. And Daniel Jones, the same way.”

This isn’t the first time Ryan has made the argument that Jones has more of an upside than Darnold, saying just a few short weeks ago that DJ is more fundamentally sound that his Gang Green counterpart.

“The reason I’m saying it is because his fundamentals are much better,” Ryan said, via SNY. “I love Sam Darnold, don’t get me wrong. I still think he’s going to be a tremendous player. But I think this guy right here, this guy’s got competitive greatness in him and I think he’s going to be a superstar.”

Darnold has been either hot or cold during his young career thus far, which is something that could be said for Jones as well.

The bottom line is that both New York teams have landed on some very talented young quarterbacks, but the eye test concludes (at least in this writer’s opinion) that Jones has a leg up on Darnold.

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Bengals will return to Andy Dalton vs. Jets

To avoid going 0-16, the Bengals will start Andy Dalton at quarterback again and sit rookie QB Ryan Finley against the Jets.

The Bengals made their second quarterback change of the season on Monday.

Cincinnati will go back to veteran Andy Dalton after benching him in favor of rookie Ryan Finley earlier this season. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor decided that three games were all he needed to see from Finley to know that his team needs to take a quarterback in next year’s draft.

Finely started the previous three games after Dalton was benched following Week 8. Now Week 13, the veteran quarterback’s first game back will be on Sunday against the New York Jets.

In three starts, Finley completed 47.1 percent of his passes for 474 yards, two touchdowns and five total turnovers.

Up until he was benched this year, Dalton had been Cincinnati’s starting quarterback since the Bengals drafted him in the second round of the 2011 NFL draft.

In eight starts this year, Dalton completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,252 yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions.

In his career against New York, Dalton is 2-0. In those two games, Dalton has completed 70 percent of his passes for 691 yards while throwing six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Jets Rookie Power Rankings: Bless Austin rises to the occasion in first true test

Jets Wire breaks down Gang Green’s rookie class in the latest edition of the rookie power rankings series.

After opening eyes with lockdown play at cornerback in the first two games of his career, Bless Austin was put to the test against an Oakland Raiders passing attack that has been potent in recent weeks.

How did the Rutgers product respond to the challenge of going up against better competition? By passing with flying colors.

That was the theme for Austin, the Jets and his fellow rookies in their dominant 34-3 win over the Raiders on Sunday. New York set the tone early and never let up against an Oakland team that is firmly in the mix for a postseason berth.

Austin and his classmates did their part in Gang Green’s nearly flawless performance. Let’s dive a little deeper into their outings in the latest edition of Jets Wire’s rookie power rankings.

No. 5: TE Trevon Wesco

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Last Week: No. 5

Nine different Jets caught passes from Sam Darnold on Sunday, but tight end Trevon Wesco was not among the group.

This isn’t much of a surprise considering Wesco’s niche as a blocking specialist, but it would’ve been nice to see him getting involved a bit in a blowout win.

Le’Veon Bell among 5 unsung heroes in Jets’ Week 12 win over Raiders

Le’Veon Bell didn’t fill the stat-sheet but his pass-catching skills were on full display against the Raiders.

The Jets made a statement on Sunday.

They didn’t just beat their first tough opponent in a month, a team with a legitimate shot at the postseason. No, they wallopped the Raiders, 34-3. It was another complete game where every facet of the Jets executed at the highest level. The offense scored on almost half of its drives and the defense held the Raiders to only 68 rushing yards and 209 total yards.

Sam Darnold, Jamal Adams and the usual suspects excelled, but players on the fringes of relevance performed admirably in the win. How did Darnold score three touchdowns? The blocking of the offensive line. How did the defense hold Josh Jacobs to a career-low rushing yard total? Penetration from the defensive line. The Jets hit on all cylinders against the Raiders and the result was magnificent.

Here are five unsung heroes from the game.

(Seth Wenig-AP)

CB Bless Austin

The sixth-round rookie once again stepped up to help hold Derek Carr and the Raiders passing offense to only 15 competitions for 127 scoreless yards. Austin finished with five combined tackles and a stellar pass break up on third and 2 that forced the Raiders to kick – and miss – a short field goal midway through the second quarter.

Austin only allowed three receptions for 24 yards on six targets against the Raiders, and his 81.7 Pro Football Focus grade was the highest on the Jets defense in Week 12. It took some time, but Austin is coming into his own as a viable starter for the Jets. There are bigger tests ahead, but Austin’s coverage and tackling skills are hard to ignore.

Brian Poole, NYC strip club offering rewards for cornerback’s stolen pick-6 ball

New York Jets CB Brian Poole is launching an all-out search to retrieve the ball from his first career touchdown with some assistance.

Jets cornerback Brian Poole has launched an all-out search to retrieve the ball from his first career touchdown, and he has the help of a New York City strip club.

Poole just wants his pick-six ball back after it was snatched from him by a Jets fan wearing a Darrelle Revis jersey during Sunday’s game. The fan plucked the football out of Poole’s hands as he was celebrating his first career touchdown, having returned an interception for a score in the Jets’ 34-3 victory over the Raiders.

Poole opened up his own search on Twitter, pleading the fan to give the football back in exchange for a signed jersey.

 

From there, it wasn’t long before teammates, Twitter sleuths and a mattress company joined the search party. A New York City strip club is even offering the person who stole ball free VIP access for every Jets home game for life, according to The Daily News’ Manish Mehta.

Whoever was wearing the Jets No. 24 jersey ought to come forward, because the offers from Poole and others are too good to pass up. The man just wants his touchdown back.

WATCH: Jets set unique scoring record with third straight win

The Jets (4-7) are the first team in the Super Bowl era to score 34 points in three straight games, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

A 1-7 start to the season for the Jets included starting three different quarterbacks in three weeks. In Week 12, New York (4-7) set a unique offensive record following its third consecutive win.

The Jets (4-7) are the first team in the Super Bowl era to score 34 points in three straight games, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Quarterback Sam Darnold missed three games (and the team’s bye week) from Week 2 to Week 5 because of mono, but in the three wins in which the Jets offense scores 34 points, Darnold has 838 passing yards and seven touchdowns (one interception). The 22-year-old has completed 58 of 89 pass attempts over the course of those three wins.

The Jets face two of the NFL’s worst teams in succession, playing the Bengals (0-11) in Week 13 then the Dolphins (2-9) in Week 14, so there is a real chance that they keep their win streak going … even if the 34-point streak ends.