Nevada vs. Wyoming: Game Preview, How to Watch, Central Players, Keys & Prediction
The Wolf Pack travels to the high plains of Wyoming to snap its six-game losing streak against the Cowboys.
Contact/Follow @KayceeClark-Mellott and @MWCwire
WHO: Nevada (15-3, 2-2 in the MWC) vs. Wyoming (9-8, 2-2 in the MWC)
WHEN: Saturday, Jan. 20, 5:30 PM MT
WHERE: Arena-Auditorium “Dome of Doom”, Laramie, Wyo.
TELEVISION: Mountain West Network
STREAM: FuboTV – Get a free trial
LINE: Nevada +8.5
RANKINGS:
| |
Nevada |
Wyoming |
| AP |
RV (22) |
NR |
| USA TODAY COACHES POLL |
RV (14) |
NR |
| NET RANKINGS |
45 |
204 |
| KENPOM |
47 |
214 |
The last victory for the Nevada Wolf Pack against the Wyoming Cowboys came in the 2020 COVID-19 season, Wyoming head coach Jeff Linder’s first season. Linder and the Pokes have won six straight from that season sweep of the Cowboys, including four games in Laramie.
Nevada’s season, thus far, is the best since the 2018-19 season, when they played in the NCAA Tournament as a seven-seed. The Wolf Pack is one of the best defensive teams in the Mountain West Conference (MWC), allowing the fewest points in the league. Coupled with three players scoring in double figures, Nevada has become one of the top teams in the conference. However, the team has lost two straight matchups against Boise State and San Diego State.
Both losses included some of Nevada’s worst shooting percentages of the season and the most fouls committed in a game against the Aztecs. The Wolf Pack allowed 41 rebounds in both games, the most in a season. Although both teams are in the top four in the conference for rebounding, Wyoming and Nevada are in the middle of the MWC.
The Cowboys have a season of many unknowns. They lost four starters from last season to graduation or the transfer portal. The only returning players for Wyoming are Brendan Wenzel, Caden Powell, Kenny Foster — who experienced a season-ending injury in the preseason — and Cort Roberson — who mainly works on the scout team.
As the team has already matched its win total from last year, the Cowboys are looking to reach double-digit wins with an upset over the Wolf Pack. Games at the “Dome of Doom” have favored Wyoming thus far this season, with a 6-1 record, including two conference victories, courtesy of Akuel Kot’s game-winning buzzer-beaters over San Jose State and Fresno State.
Turnovers have troubled the Pokes all season as the 20th most per game in the NCAA. Sam Griffin and Kot lead the team with 3.1 turnovers each per game. Only two games have seen the Cowboys commit less than 10 turnovers.
While Nevada looks to get back on track in conference play, Wyoming aims to achieve a winning record in the conference.
Key Players to the Game:
G Kenan Blackshear–Nevada
23-24 Stats: 16.3 PPG, 4.7 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG & 51.4% FG
Last time out: 14 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds and 3 steals on 6-12 (50%) shooting, including 2-5 from the line, at San Diego State.
Kenan Blackshear is an all-around player for the Wolf Pack. He leads the team in assists and steals and is second among starters in scoring, rebounds and shooting percentage. His four highest-scoring games have all come this season, with a career-high of 31 points at Washington in November.
Both guards — Blackshear and Jarod Lucas — are prominent players for Nevada, but the stature of Blackshear may pose difficulties for Wyoming’s defense. His passing vision and abilities can help propel the Wolf Pack while drawing attention away from others.
F Caden Powell-Wyoming
23-24 Stats: 7.2 PPG, 1.0 APG, 5.9 RPG, 0.9 BPG & 50% FG
Last time out: 2 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and a block on 0-2 shooting against Fresno State.
The obvious answer for the Pokes is leading scorer Griffin or Kot with the buzzer-beaters and scoring double digits in all but one game this season. However, Powell must be a dominant force on the glass. As Nevada has allowed over 40 rebounds in their last two games, it’s central for the Cowboys to continue that trend.
Powell also makes half the shots he puts up, and while playing the best scoring defense in the conference, throwing up the most efficient shots is vital. Since MWC play started, Powell has yet to post double figures, only averaging 4.8 points on 46.2%. A dominant big-man performance can send Wyoming into the driver’s seat of this game.
Keys to the Game
For Nevada: Control the glass. Improve shooting efficiency. Get back on defense.
The game plan must focus on rebounds after allowing over 40 rebounds in back-to-back games. The Wolf Pack has been outrebounded in half of its games this season. Additionally, the team’s rebound margin is even at zero, ranking 193 in the NCAA. The combination of Nick Davidson and Blackshear must be highly prominent in the paint, offensively and defensively.
The Wolf Pack also must find efficient shots to take. Since MWC play started, the team’s field goal percentage has dropped 4.4 percentage points. Nevada shot 36% against Boise State. Additionally, the team has become less effective at the line, dropping nearly six percentage points in that same time. The goal is always to have more points than the opponent, and decreasing numbers is not a good sign for winning.
Against San Diego State, Nevada gave up 15 fast break points. In MWC games, the average Nevada has allowed is 7.75, but it has only scored 7.83 on the season. It is pertinent to ensure that the Cowboys can’t get fast points against an unset defense, notably when Wyoming is ranked 19th lowest in fast break points.
For Wyoming: Get to the charity stripe. Box out and snag the rebounds. Beyond the arc action.
The Cowboys are one of the best from the line in the league. At 75.3%, Wyoming only trails Colorado State in free throw percentage. In addition, Nevada fouls the third most in the MWC, sending San Diego State to the line for 34 shots. Not a single player for Wyoming shoots under 50% from the line, with seven players shooting 80% or better.
Rebounding is a fundamental key to winning games. As a middle-tier rebounding team in the conference, Wyoming posts a 6-3 record when winning the rebound margin while 3-5 when opponents outrebound the Pokes.
Wyoming is one of the best from beyond the arc. Despite the low number of shots beyond the arc per game, the team shoots 38.6% from three and is ranked 16th in the NCAA. Wyoming has shot over 40% in eight games this season and won seven of them. Even when the team shoots above its average, it holds an 8-2 record while 1-6 when below. The magic number for the Pokes is 38.6%.
Prediction:
Nevada 68, Wyoming 60
Wyoming will cover the spread of +8.5 but ultimately come up short. While Nevada has not been able to grab a board the past two games, this came against the conference’s top teams. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they are neither a top team in the MWC nor prolific at grabbing boards. The Wolf Pack will also clean up some of their foul troubles and return to the win column. Nevada will halt the Pokes’ domination over them and move to 16-3.
Kaycee Clark-Mellott covers college football and basketball for the Mountain West Wire, mainly covering the Wyoming Cowboys.
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