A 5-22 record is a change of pace for the Golden State Warriors, instead of wins, the team has had to seek out bright spots where they can find them. Within the Warriors down season, rookies Eric Paschall and Ky Bowman have blossomed out of almost nowhere.
Paschall, a second-round pick, and Bowman, an undrafted free agent, have greatly exceeded expectations through the first quarter of the NBA season, and now they’re starting to receive some recognition.
According to NBA Math’s Rolling Player Rating, both rookies, Paschall and Bowman rank in the top-10 of their Rookie of the Year predictions. Paschall is currently second with a 2.836 rating, and Bowman is an honorable mention at eighth with a 0.961 score.
Via RPR Predictor, our current Rookie of the Year standings:
1. Ja Morant, @memgrizz: 3.588
2. Eric Paschall, @warriors: 2.836
3. Brandon Clarke, @memgrizz: 2.072
4. Rui Hachimura, @WashWizards: 1.897
5. PJ Washington, @hornets: 1.865https://t.co/G4wlWuwHh5 pic.twitter.com/PFwrvT4Lm8
— NBA Math (@NBA_Math) December 15, 2019
Memphis Grizzlies rookie phenom, Ja Morant tops the list with a 3.588 rating. Miami Heat rookie, Kendrick Nunn, joins Paschall and Bowman as the only non-first round picks to make NBA Math’s top-10.
Via RPR Predictor, current Rookie of the Year honorable mentions:
6. Kendrick Nunn, @MiamiHEAT:
1.4767. Tyler Herro, @MiamiHEAT: 0.976
8. Ky Bowman, @warriors: 0.961
9. De'Andre Hunter, @ATLHawks: 0.855
10. RJ Barrett, @nyknicks: 0.815https://t.co/G4wlWuf6px pic.twitter.com/34WR3YCWCP
— NBA Math (@NBA_Math) December 15, 2019
NBA Math’s rolling player rating factors in box score statistics from the players past 10-games with higher values towards quality opponents. According to NBA Math, defense is undervalued in their ratings with box score statistics and on-court contributions taking precedence. NBA Math uses Rolling Player Rating to help project awards like Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year.
NBA Math’s Rolling Player Ratings are by no means perfect, as is to be expected from a metric based on a schedule-adjusted version of Game Score. They undervalue defensive contributions, only give credit for work that shows up in the box score and can sometimes favor players who rack up meaningless numbers in garbage-time situations. Essentially, they’re a measure of who’s best at producing the most glamorous NBA statistics rather than a measure of pure on-court value.
It makes sense for Paschall and Bowman to rank highly in this metric as they’ve both been consistent contributors for the Warriors all season. Paschall ranks in the rookie top-three in points per game 16.1 (second), total points 403 (second), and field goals 149 (second).
Bowman, a two-way contract player currently on assignment in the G League with the Santa Cruz Warriors, is averaging 8.6 points, 2.7 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game in his rookie season with Golden State.
Regardless of advanced metrics, Paschall and Bowman’s play have been the bright spot in Golden State’s down season. If the rookie duo can continue to stack consistent play, they’ll give the Warriors two building blocks for the future.