ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts Michigan State to go 4-8 in 2020

ESPN’s advanced college football metric thinks Mel Tucker is in for a long first year

Mel Tucker’s first year at Michigan State–if it even happens–is looking like it could be a rough one; at least according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

Michigan State is slotted 67th in the latest preseason FPI rankings. That ranking, combined with their tough schedule, has Michigan State finishing a projected 4-8 in Tucker’s first season. FPI gives the Spartans a 0.0% chance of winning the Big Ten.

ESPN’s FPI also projects the percent chance a team has of winning a specific game. There are only three games on Michigan State’s entire schedule in which FPI gives them a better than 50% chance of winning: vs. Toledo, vs. Miami, and vs. Rutgers.

Let’s see what FPI has to say about each Michigan State opponent in 2020.

Week 1 vs. Northwestern – 26.2%

Gone are the Friday night specials getting to beat up on lower-level group of five teams. Michigan State starts the season at home against what looks to be a pretty good Northwestern team.

Week 2 @ BYU – 39.8%

BYU might just be the common denominator for truly terrible Michigan State seasons. The Spartans lost to the Cougars at home in 2016 and now have to travel all the way to Provo, Utah in week two.

Week 3 vs. Toledo – 78.8%

Even this game is far from a gimme. Toledo has had some really nice football teams the last decade and could easily put a scare into a young Michigan State team.

Week 4 vs. Miami – 50.9%

I’m always surprised when I see MSU is projected to beat Miami. I think it says more about just how bad the ACC is going to be this year.

Week 5 @ Iowa – 14.2%

Winning on the road at Iowa is hard enough with a really good team.

Week 6 vs. Michigan – 21.8%

It might be a couple years before Tucker is able to swing the Michigan State vs. UofM rivalry back around.

Week 7 vs. Ohio State – 3.4%

Ohio State is going to absolutely bludgeon every single team they play this year en route to the College Football Playoff and probably a national title.

Week 8 @ Indiana – 14.9%

Indiana was good last year and is going to be better this year so long as Mike Penix Jr. stays healthy. Winning in their place is going to be really tough.

Week 9 vs. Minnesota – 31.1%

Even Minnesota is up right now. PJ Feck has the Golden Gophers cruising towards back-to-back double-digit win seasons. Good thing he’s going to bolt from there real soon.

Week 10 @ Penn State – 4.6%

Same analysis as the Iowa game. Although MSU certainly has had some weird upsets over Penn State the last few years.

Week 11 vs. Rutgers – 66.7%

Hooray for Rutgers! (Please don’t lose to Rutgers)

Week 12 @ Maryland – 45.7%

Another toss-up game. Mike Locksley might have things turned around a bit in College Park, but the Terps are still a ways away from being a quality team.

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Locked On Spartans Podcast: Kaidon Salter, Tom Izzo’s transfer comments, MSU sports documentaries

Plus, what MSU sports events and teams would make for the best documentaries?

Wil and Matt talk about why they think Kaidon Salter is a recruit worth following. Then they diverge a bit on Tom Izzo’s latest comments about transfers and then dig into what MSU teams and events they would want to see a documentary on.

You can find the episode on iTunes, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.

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In honor of The Last Dance: Michigan State sports documentaries I’d love to see

These stories are ripe with interest for Michigan State football and basketball documentaries.

On Sunday night ESPN debuted the first two parts of The Last Dance, a ten-part documentary series on the Michael Jordan-era Chicago Bulls. It was a great two hours of television, with a ton of in-depth stories building the foundation of the story of what was the end of one of sports’ greatest dynasties.

That got me to thinking: What Michigan State sports documentaries would I want to see?

What may be the obvious answers for a MSU fan, aren’t the ones I thought of first. For example, I don’t particularly want to see a Flintstones documentary, or a documentary on the 2013 football team. There’s certainly interesting things there, but those stories have been pretty well documented. The best documentaries are revealing in nature and often have to do with some sort of scandal or trouble. Add in that conflict to something like a giant corporation or megs sports franchise and “viola” you’ve got a pretty interesting documentary. So the Flintstones are out. MSU football 2013-2015 is out. Magic Johnson’s career is mostly out, but there could be something interesting there digging into the status of college sports at the time and how the 1979 NCAA Tournament shifted basketball both on the court and off. But Magic vs. Bird is a pretty well-mined pit.

What follows is a list of MSU-related sports documentaries that I would absolutely love to see. They aren’t in any particular order, really, with the exception of the first one. You’ll see why.

Warren Mott defensive end Tyson Watson commits to Michigan State

Watson is the fifth recruit of Mel Tucker’s inaugural class

#21BuiltStrong has added another big body on the defensive line.

A couple days after Detroit Loyola defensive tackle Derrick Harmon became Mel Tucker’s fourth recruit of the 2021 class, the Spartans added their fifth guy in Warren Mott defensive end Tyson Watson. Watson announced his decision during a sit-down on Rivals.com

Watson, listed at 6-foot-6 and 270 pounds, is a three-star prospect on the 247Sports composite rankings. He is ranked as the No. 562 prospect in the 2021 class and the 16th-best player in the state of Michigan.

Watson chose MSU over a group of finalists that include Tennessee, Indiana, Iowa State, and Toledo. He totaled up 20 offers, a number of which came from power five schools.

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NCAA allots more virtual meeting time for division one coaches, athletes

Coaches can now require up to eight hours of virtual meetings per NCAA ruling.

The NCAA’s latest COVID-19 determination is a big one for Mel Tucker and Michigan State football.

The NCAA has announced an increase in how much time coaches can spend meeting virtually with their players, starting next week.

“Division I coaches in all sports will be allowed more virtual connection with their teams beginning Monday, April 20, and continuing through May 31, the Division I Council Coordination Committee determined Wednesday,” reads the opening paragraph from an NCAA release. Committee members, “voted to allow teams in all sports to require up to eight hours per week of virtual nonphysical countable activities like film review, chalk talks and team meetings.”

Athletes will be required to have at least one day off per week. Required physical activities are still prohibited as they require a sports-safety certified staff member to be present at all times.

Previously all sports were considered to be “out of season” once the NCAA canceled the entirety of the spring sports schedule. That put all coaches and teams in offseason mode, which limits the amount of time coaches and players can be in contact.

For programs breaking in new coaching regimes, like Tucker’s Michigan State team, this move is especially important as it will allow more time for the staff to hold positional and team meetings, install new plays, and get to know their new players. It should help alleviate some of the catching up thrust on a new coach hired a few weeks before a global pandemic would shut the sports world down.

The coordination committee will be reevaluating the access in mid-May to determine whether to extend of amend the current rules.

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Michigan State offers 2022 4-star DT, author of viral recruiting tweet

Curtis Neal is the latest top prospect offered by Mel Tucker

I officially have a favorite prospect for Michigan State football in the 2022 class.

Michigan State on Monday offered Curtis Neal, a 4-star defensive tackle in the class 2022 out of Cornelius, North Carolina. Neal is rated by 247 as the 12th-best DT in the 20222 class.

That’s all well and good, but I’m more interested in something else. If that name or Twitter picture looks familiar, you’re not wrong. About a month ago Neal had a recruiting tweet that was quite popular when he posted his “Top 5” and instead of schools it was restaurants.

This is the exact mindset I want out of  a 6’1 305 lb. defensive tackle. It even looks like Neal is making the “feed me” celebration gesture in that edit. That’s good stuff from Neal. He currently has offers from just about every school in the country and given that he is just a sophomore, there’s still a long ways to go in his recruiting.

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WATCH: Michigan State football coach Mel Tucker to former players: ‘You are welcome here.’

A video message of Tucker welcoming back all former players is making the rounds on social media

New Michigan State football coach Mel Tucker has a message to all former Spartan players: “You are welcome here.”

A video on social media is making the rounds today of a message from Tucker to former players, saying they are all welcome in the program regardless of when they played, how much they won, who they played for, etc.

In the message Tucker says he wants the former players around the program as much as possible, even joking they can stand next to him at practice and hold his whistle.

It may seem like an obvious gesture, but having a strong, connected and passionate alumni base within the program can be very impactful. Michigan State has done that in the past and it’s good to see that continue with the new regime. Tucker also recently hosted a large video conference meeting with a bunch of former players and reportedly been reaching out to former players to make connections with them. He’s also hired a number of former players, including Darien Harris Director of Player Engagement, Harlon Barnett as Defensive Backs Coach, and Courtney Hawkins as Wide Receivers Coach.

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Michigan State lands commitment of three-star left tackle Ethan Boyd

Boyd is Mel Tucker’s second commitment in as many days.

#21BuiltStrong is catching on.

Mel Tucker and Michigan State have landed their second recruit in as many days with East Lansing offensive tackle Ethan Boyd committing to MSU.

Boyd is listed at 6’7 and 285 pounds. He is a three-star prospect, rated 800th overall in the class of 2021 per the 247 Sports composite rankings. Boyd chose MSU over power five offers from Iowa State, Minnesota, Indiana, and Vanderbilt.

Boyd is the second member of Tucker’s inaugural class, joining three-star running back Davion Primm out of Oak Park.

#21BuiltStrong is the hashtag Michigan State coaches are using to classify their 2021 recruiting class. Coaches and support staff members will seemingly tweet out a GIF with the hashtag when a player has committed to the program.

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Caeser’s sets Michigan State football win total over/under at 4.5 wins

One of the biggest sports books in the United States doesn’t see Michigan State winning many games in 2020.

College football may or may not be played this fall, but that doesn’t mean you can’t bet on it right now.

Caesers Entertainment has released its season win totals for the 2020 college football season and they think Michigan State could be in for a long season. The Spartans over/under win total is set at 4.5 wins for Mel Tucker’s first year. That means an over bet would require five wins or more to cash, while and under bet would need four or fewer wins.

You may be thinking to yourself, “Hey, that seems low. Maybe they are accounting for the chance that games aren’t played this fall!”

Nope. A stipulation of the bet is that all 12 games must be played in order for the bets to count. Also, postseason games do no count. So, Caesers thinks Tucker’s first season is going to be a long one with few wins to come by. Given what Michigan State lost from its 2019 team and the fact that they’re breaking in an almost entirely new coaching staff during a pandemic, I’d say the low number isn’t much of a surprise.

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