The #Aztecs can just get on with it and leave the Mountain West. The #Pac12 can just get on with it and finalize its media deal.
San Diego State University and the Pac-12 Conference want each other. At least, that is and has been the indication for several months.
San Diego State would love to move up from the Mountain West, a Group of Five league, to the Pac-12, a Power Five conference. The Pac-12, for its part, wants to maintain a presence in Southern California. The conference has expressed optimism that it can fetch a competitive price point for its new round of media rights deals based on having the added inventory provided by both San Diego State and SMU, the two schools it has heavily courted.
Now, however, the Mountain West is refusing to give San Diego State an extension on its timeline for leaving the conference without paying added exit fees beyond what it already owes. The current deadline is June 30. San Diego State would pay close to $17 million in additional exit penalties if it doesn’t leave the Mountain West by then.
Why hasn’t SDSU already left? The Pac-12 hasn’t extended an offer to join the conference. Why hasn’t the Pac-12 extended an offer? Because it hasn’t finalized its media rights deal.
If San Diego State wants out of the Mountain West, it shouldn’t feel the need to wait beyond June 30. If the Pac-12 is confident that San Diego State will deliver a good media rights deal, what is the remaining holdup at this point?
Yes, SDSU would like to formally leave the Mountain West and then immediately announce its membership in the Pac-12. We can see and appreciate that desire to not be “unaffiliated” for even a few days or hours. However, is there any doubt SDSU would find a Power Five conference home? The optics might not be ideal, but the Aztecs should not be worried that they will somehow be left stranded. They will find a good home. They can leave the Mountain West and know they’ll land safety, even if the process is awkward.
The Pac-12 owes it to San Diego State to finalize this media rights deal before June 30 so that the Aztecs — and then, presumably, SMU — can join up and we can all move on with our lives.
This doesn’t have to be prolonged any more than absolutely necessary.
The Mountain West is not going to accommodate San Diego State in that regard.
Pete Thamel of ESPN reported on Monday that the Mountain West will not grant San Diego State any such extension. This move, which should not come as a shock to anyone, puts more pressure on San Diego State to act quickly — by June 30 — to avoid the hefty additional exit fee.
San Diego State claims that its letter earlier in June was not a formal resignation from the Mountain West Conference, but according to Thamel’s Monday report, the MWC is treating San Diego State’s letter as a formal notice of departure.
One obvious point to make, among many others, is why San Diego State waited until the middle of June to send that first letter. Yes, the Aztecs are trying to buy extra time. That much is clear. However, sending a letter earlier in the year rather than just a few weeks before the June 30 deadline might have given the Mountain West more time to consider its future. The relatively late notice might have rubbed conference officials the wrong way.
At any rate, San Diego State will definitely have to do something before June 30, since no one in the college sports industry thinks the Aztecs will want to pay $17-18 million more than what they will already owe the Mountain West.
Here's the @espn story on the latest in the back-and-forth between San Diego State and the Mountain West. Sources detail a Friday letter from the MWC that states they won't offer SDSU any exceptions and maintains SDSU has given formal exit notice. https://t.co/z0MvP2g1sh
We also know that Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff has not finalized a media rights deal for the conference, the obvious holdup in the larger process of extending a formal invitation to San Diego State. If the media rights deal was done, San Diego State would almost certainly have been given an invitation, and the Aztecs wouldn’t be in limbo right now, wanting to leave the Mountain West yet not having a fully-prepared home to move into.
Given this very fluid situation — one in which the Big 12, at least theoretically, could step into the void and woo San Diego State while the Pac-12 fails to finish its media rights deal — one has to wonder what SMU is thinking.
The Mustangs have been courted by Kliavkoff and the Pac-12. Industry insiders believe that if the Pac-12 wants to move to 12 teams (not 11), SMU is the most likely candidate to join San Diego State and create a new 12-team conference.
Does SMU need to make a quick move, or should it sit back and wait for the San Diego State drama to play out?
Let’s keep one point in mind: With Cincinnati, UCF, BYU, and Houston all moving to the Big 12, SMU — in a watered-down AAC — might actually have a much more reasonable path to the 12-team College Football Playoff if it stays in the AAC. The AAC is bringing in Charlotte, Rice, North Texas, UAB, and Florida Atlantic. SMU can beat those schools, win the AAC title, and get that seat at the table in a larger playoff field.
SMU doesn’t need to rush out the door. SMU should be leveraging offers — if it receives them — from the Big 12 and Pac-12. The Mustangs can do some comparison shopping.
The Aztecs want to leave, but they haven’t provided a formal notice of resignation. The Mountain West could show no mercy.
On Friday, San Diego State declared its intent to leave the Mountain West, but let’s be very clear about what happened: The Aztecs did not submit a formal resignation letter. This was merely an expression of intent, not an actual departure with any binding actions attached.
In fact, the Aztecs — in their letter to the Mountain West — asked for a one-month extension in the process of lining up their departure. The reason? They don’t want to pay a higher exit fee, which they would have to do if they’re not out of the Mountain West by June 30. The Aztecs would have to pay a fee of over $15 million more than the fee they would currently pay if they leave by June 30. SDSU is obviously not willing to pay that extra fee.
However, the Aztecs haven’t been formally invited to join the Pac-12 or, for that matter, the Big 12. Why? The Pac-12 obviously doesn’t have a finalized media rights deal to offer as a bastion of security. The Aztecs just want to leave the Mountain West first, but they would like the Pac-12 to conclude its media rights negotiations and extend an offer.
They’re asking the Mountain West for a one-month extension while this plays out.
The obvious choice facing the Mountain West: Should it play hardball or be magnanimous? It’s certainly not the Mountain West’s problem that the Pac-12 hasn’t finalized a media rights deal. Just how difficult will the MWC make this process for San Diego State?
Can George Kliavkoff land the plane and secure a #Pac12 deal before Brett Yormark and the Big 12 swoop in? #Aztecs
San Diego State hasn’t officially left the Mountain West, but it has declared its intent to do so.
Why haven’t we heard about the Pac-12 inviting San Diego State or extending a formal offer to the Aztecs as of early Saturday morning? The answer is complicated in terms of George Kliavkoff’s negotiations, but it’s not complicated in terms of understanding what’s going on here.
“While the Pac-12 — as of Friday at noon — had not yet extended an offer to the Aztecs to join the conference, everyone in the college sports industry is waiting for that to happen. One very obvious point raised by the San Diego State story is that it puts the spotlight on the Pac-12’s pursuit of a new media rights deal. Have media rights conversations been conducted behind closed doors with the expectation that San Diego State would be part of the conference? Was that the holdup here? Is that why no media rights package has been finalized? Everyone will speculate, but now we wait to see what domino will fall next.”
There are a few specific points to make about the Pac-12 media rights deal. Let’s explore them below in the form of tweets from other observers and some written commentary of our own:
Realignment speculation. Realignment drama. It must be June. Social media is lighting up like a Christmas tree. #Aztecs #Pac12
Well, well, well, what do we have here? June realignment drama, just like last year. In June of 2022, the news broke that USC and UCLA were leaving for the Big Ten. In June of 2023, we have fresh reporting from ESPN’s Pete Thamel which indicates that San Diego State wants to leave the Mountain West.
While the Pac-12 — as of Friday at noon — had not yet extended an offer to the Aztecs to join the conference, everyone in the college sports industry is waiting for that to happen. One very obvious point raised by the San Diego State story is that it puts the spotlight on the Pac-12’s pursuit of a new media rights deal. Have media rights conversations been conducted behind closed doors with the expectation that San Diego State would be part of the conference? Was that the holdup here? Is that why no media rights package has been finalized? Everyone will speculate, but now we wait to see what domino will fall next.
Here’s a sampling of the Twitter reaction to the new reports about San Diego State possibly ushering in a new college sports realignment drama in the middle of the year:
ESPN reports SDSU wants out of the MWC. As of Friday at lunchtime, the Pac-12 had not extended an offer to the Aztecs.
Here we go, folks!
ESPN’s Pete Thamel is reporting that San Diego State University has written a letter to the Mountain West Conference that it “intends” to exit the league. In case you are wondering, no — the Pac-12 has not yet extended a formal invitation to the Aztecs to join the conference and replace USC as a Southern California-based member of the conference.
However, we can all put two and two together and reasonably conclude that the process of transitioning from the Mountain West to the Pac-12 is underway.
That doesn’t guarantee it will happen, but it certainly increases the odds. San Diego State had to make a movement such as this to initiate the process if that process was going to happen. Now we can even more seriously consider the possibility that the Aztecs will move to the Pac-12.
This is not a done deal. This is not a guarantee. It does, however, represent real movement — and not just a rumor or wild speculation — about the Aztecs and their future, which will affect other aspects of college sports realignment.
Here's our @ESPN story on San Diego State's June 13 letter to the Mountain West that it "intends" to exit. SDSU does not have an invitation to the Pac-12, according a source. "SDSU is exploring all of the options and asking all the questions." https://t.co/nrRYjhhgA6
Below are various reports, tweets, and elements of speculation from the past several months surrounding SDSU and the Pac-12. Enjoy reading them, because as you probably know, speculation has been a constant feature of realignment talk. Today, we finally have a story which puts some meat on the bone and isn’t pure 100-percent rumor:
Can Boise State Make A Deep NCAA Tournament Run In Max Rice’s Final Season?
Following Boise State’s first-round exit from the NCAA Tournament, redshirt senior Max Rice announced in March that he would return to Boise State for his final year of eligibility in 2023.
Rice, who has been with the program since 2018, stepped into a leadership role last season. In the 2022-2023 season, Rice was the team’s second-leading scorer with 14.0 points-per-game.
He could have left the program to pursue a professional basketball career, but he decided to stay for one more chance to play meaningful basketball in the Mountain West Conference.
Returning for a 6th year will mean that Rice can play for his father, Leon Rice, for one last full season. This will give Rice a chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for a third-consecutive season.
The previous two seasons saw Boise State lose to Memphis and Northwestern in the opening round of the tournament. With Rice’s presence in the lineup, Boise State will try to win its first NCAA Tournament game. If the Broncos are going to have any postseason success, Rice will be a pivotal part of that run for Boise State.
With several key departures due to graduation, Rice will be an on-court leader in 2023. With another year of experience under his belt, Rice will be in a position to increase his scoring average from last season.
For next season, Boise State will also return Tyson Degenhart and Chibuzo Agbo. Rice, along with Degenhart and Agbo, will be expected to help the Broncos compete for a Mountain West championship. Boise State fans can anticipate seeing Rice as the primary scoring option throughout the season.
In 2022-2023, Rice had 16 games with at least 14 points. With the offense running through him in 2023, Rice will likely have more games with a minimum of 14 points scored.
Rice will be tasked with guiding the Broncos on a deep run in March 2024.
As usual, it’s always tough to determine which cadets are most likely to be on the NFL’s radar, but the Falcons project to have a very stingy defense this fall and that could bode well for someone like Camby Goff. The defensive back from Reynoldsburg, Ohio has played all over the secondary, and often in the box, over the last two seasons and led Air Force in 2022 with three interceptions and nine passes defended while allowing just 42.9% of receiver targets to be caught. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, he’s definitely worth tuning in for.
If the bounceback can last for another season, then it’s easy to think that NFL teams will be interested in running back George Holani. Though he had help in the offensive backfield throughout 2022, Holani led the Broncos with 1,157 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns while contributing 24 receptions for 151 yards to the passing game, as well.
The most enticing statistic, though? According to Pro Football Focus, Holani had 15 more missed tackles forced (70) than any other Mountain West running back. As usual, the Broncos are likely to have a handful of prospects worth following, but he may be something else entirely.
In the mix: Cade Beresford, OT; Stefan Cobbs, WR; DJ Schramm, LB
Colorado State
The Rams didn’t have a great 2023 as a team, but Mohamed Kamara thrived under new defensive coordinator Freddie Banks. Among Mountain West defenders, the Newark native finished in a tie for fourth with 8.5 sacks and third with 16.5 tackles for loss while tallying 35 quarterback hurries. Now that he has a full year within Banks’ system under his belt, he should be in the conversation as the conference’s most disruptive player next season.
The Bulldogs may not be quite as rife with prospects next year, but Levelle Bailey is an underrated defender who figures to anchor a veteran linebacker unit. Over the past two seasons, he’s racked up 144 total tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and 13 passes defended; in 2022, Pro Football Focus credited him with 48 stops, tied for the second-most among all Mountain West players.
The Warriors will have much more experience on hand in Timmy Chang‘s second year at the helm and, among their veteran group, Virdel Edwards II is someone who deserves more attention. After transferring in from Iowa State, he made a switch from safety to cornerback and became the top player, per PFF, in Hawaii’s secondary last year with a 71.4 overall grade. He tied for the team lead with three interceptions and broke up five passes while collecting 50 total tackles and, at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds, has a blend of size and athleticism unlike many of his peers at the position throughout the Mountain West.
In the mix: Matthew Shipley, P/K; Cam Stone, CB; Solo Vaipulu, OL
Nevada
It might seem lazy to select a specialist here, but Brandon Talton is no ordinary kicker. He announced himself back in 2019 by crushing a game-winning 56-yard field goal in the Wolf Pack’s season opener against Purdue, then connected on his first 13 field goal tries and then, four years later, set the Mountain West record for career field goals made with a 80% success rate. Oh, and did we mention that includes making 20-of-31 of field goals from 40-plus yards? Nevada hasn’t been shy about letting him use his cannon leg to put points on the board over the years.
One of the few mainstays on a Lobos defense that’s seen plenty of upheaval over the past two off-seasons, Donte Martin is back to make another argument that he’ll belong in the NFL this time next year. Since breaking into the starting lineup as a redshirt freshman in 2019, Martin has defended 27 passes and, according to Pro Football Focus, he had his best season yet in 2022 with an overall grade of 74.0. If UNM has a resurgence this fall, Martin is likely to be a big reason why.
The Aztecs’ March Madness run makes San Diego State an even more intriguing school for the Pac-12 to consider
Pac-12 expansion has been a popular discussion for the past year. With USC and UCLA beginning their final year in the conference before moving to the Big Ten, more changes are likely coming.
As the college basketball season wraps up, the Pac-12 should seriously consider adding the San Diego State Aztecs, and there are plenty of reasons why.
Yes, the Aztecs men’s basketball team caught everybody’s attention with a thrilling run to the Final Four and the national championship, but there’s more to it than that.
The location is perfect for the Pac-12, and the Southern California market is blossoming with opportunities for the conference once UCLA and USC leave.
The community backs SDSU a ton. Just watch the reaction from the fans at the Padres game when Lamont Butler hit the game-winner over Florida Atlantic:
SDSU’s football program is on the rise as well and just opened a brand new stadium in 2022.
On the basketball court, the Pac-12 struggled in the NCAA Tournament except for UCLA, and Arizona’s loss to Princeton was a shocker. But, the Aztecs aren’t exactly a Cinderella story. Rather, this is a program that has a history of sustained winning in the Mountain West.
After all is said and done, it would be surprising to see the Pac-12 not offer San Diego State a spot in the conference.
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