Tag: Mountain West Football

Mountain West Football: Week 12 Winners and Losers

Eric Munoz, Tyler Vander Waal, Luq Barcoo and Tony Sanchez are among the weekend’s biggest winners and losers in Mountain West football.

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Mountain West Football: Week 12 Winners and Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired in Week 12 of Mountain West football?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Some encouragement and some letdowns from the week that was.

That’s how you do a rivalry week, yeah? Friday and Saturday brought a lot of twists and turns all across the Mountain West but as always, for every winner there has to be a loser.

Here’s who stepped up and disappointed in Week 12.

Winners

1. Utah State linebacker Eric Munoz. Life isn’t always easy for a walk-on athlete, so when you crush your chance to shine, you have to make the winners list. In his first career start, Munoz led the Aggies with 13 tackles and came away with two interceptions, too, including the one that sealed the victory over Wyoming late in the fourth quarter. Considering his winding path to this moment, we’ll definitely be on the lookout for more production down the stretch.

2. Air Force linebacker Jake Ksiazek. Speaking of players you probably didn’t know about until yesterday, the Falcons got a big time performance from its front seven and no one was better than the senior from Tucson. He had three of Air Force’s eight sacks against Colorado State and forced two fumbles while recovering one himself to help secure the Ram-Falcon Trophy.

3. San Diego State cornerback Luq Barcoo. In a crucial game for the Aztecs’ division title hopes, Barcoo continued to play at what’s almost certain to be an all-conference level. He had two interceptions in a tight win over Fresno State, one of which shut down a fourth-quarter scoring threat, which makes him one of three FBS defenders at the moment with at least seven INTs on the year.

Losers

1. Wyoming quarterback Tyler Vander Waal. The Cowboys needed to get more out of their passing game on Saturday against Utah State and didn’t get it. Vander Waal’s final stat line — 20-of-36 for 185 yards and three interceptions — belies the fact that it took a late rally to get that many yards through the air. His four giveaways also killed two scoring chances and led directly to two Dominik Eberle field goals that ultimately made the difference in the battle for the Bridger Rifle.

2. UNLV’s offense. Against a Hawaii defense that had given up at least seven yards per play in each of its last four games, the Rebels had perhaps their worst overall performance of the year. They averaged just 4.8 yards per play, went 2-for-11 on third downs, threw two interceptions (one of which was a pick six), and put a little more heat under head coach Tony Sanchez’s ever-warmer seat.

3. New Mexico’s running game. You can’t blame the Lobos for leaning on Ahmari Davis and Bryson Carroll, but it didn’t help when both running backs got hurt early and their replacements were mostly ineffective in their blowout loss to Boise State. In the first quarter, New Mexico ran the ball 16 times for just 45 yards, getting stuffed on a third-and-one, third-and-two, fourth-and-one while the Broncos raced out to a 28-0 lead that put the game out of reach.

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How To Livestream Hawaii vs. UNLV On Facebook

The Warriors and Rebels face off in the latest Mountain West football game on Facebook. Here’s how to tune in on the mainland.

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How To Livestream Hawaii vs. UNLV On Facebook

The Warriors and Rebels face off in the latest Mountain West football game on Facebook. Here’s how to tune in on the mainland.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

If you’re not on the islands, here’s the info you need.

WEEK 12: Hawaii Warriors (6-4, 3-3 Mountain West) vs. UNLV Rebels (2-7, 0-5 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16 — 1:00 PM PT/11:00 AM HT

WHERE: Sam Boyd Stadium; Las Vegas, Nevada (35,500)

TV: The game can be found Spectrum PPV for viewers in Hawaii only.

STREAMING: Mainland viewers can find the game on Facebook. Additionally, Hawaii’s radio broadcast can be streamed via ESPN Honolulu and UNLV’s broadcast can be found on TuneIn.

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It’s a rivalry week in Las Vegas on Saturday afternoon, as the Hawaii Warriors and UNLV Rebels will face off in the Ninth Island Showdown for the trophy unofficially known as the “Golden Pineapple” and there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the game.

Fans on the mainland who are interested in watching the game will want to head to Facebook, where Stadium will once again host a Mountain West football clash. It is the sixth of seven Hawaii football games which will be featured on the social media platform, so be sure to tune in to watch what will surely be a game filled with intrigue on both sidelines and plenty of points.

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Air Force vs Colorado State: Three Keys to a Rams Win

CSU has chance to gain bowl eligibility by winning two out of their last three games. Can the Rams beat the Falcons to move a step closer?

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Air Force vs Colorado State: Three Keys to a Rams Win

The Rams have a chance to move closer to bowl eligibility

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

Can the Rams beat a rival?

WEEK 12: Air Force Falcons (7-2, 4-1 Mountain West) vs Colorado State Rams (4-5, 3-2 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16th — 5:00 PM MT/4:00 PM PT

WHERE: Canvas Stadium; Fort Collins, Colorado (41,000)

TV: ESPN2

RADIO: Air Force | Colorado State

SERIES RECORD: This will be the 58th matchup between the two teams. Air Force currently leads the series 35-21-1

WEBSITES: GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website | CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website

ODDS (via OddsShark): Air Force -10

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 14.1 (79% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 20.2

The Colorado State Rams have a chance to gain bowl eligibility by winning two out of their last three games. This week, the Air Force Falcons and their option offense are standing in their way.

After games where the Rams let the Falcons score 40+ points, last season CSU kept the game close, losing 27-19. This season the Rams are riding high on a resurgent defense in conference play. Here’s how CSU can beat the Falcons.

Three Keys to a Colorado State Victory

1. Contain the fullback dive.

The Rams have had the fullback dive drilled into their heads over the past two weeks. “Every day. Every time I walk in the building,” defensive tackle Ellison Hubbard told CSURams.com. “We’re going to hear fullback dive, dive, just dive, dive, dive. We’re going to hear it.”

CSU gave up 260 yards and a touchdown to Cole Fagan last year. Fagan is no longer with the team, but the fullback still plays a big role in the offense with two of the Falcons top three rushers being fullbacks. The Rams need to limit the damage down from the Falcons fullback if they want to win.

2. The defense needs to stay with their assignments.

The Air Force Falcons are an extremely disciplined football team; which comes as a result of their daily military training. They know their assignments and they know how to execute to make a team pay for their mistakes.

If the Rams are to walk away with a victory, they cannot freelance anything. If the CSU defense tries to get cute, the Falcons will break open a big, chunk yards play. The Rams will need to play smash mouth, keep on assignment football to beat the Falcons.

3. Get the running game going.

The Air Force Falcons defense against the run ranks ninth in the country, allowing only 96.8 yards per game. The Rams rushing attack is currently averaging 156.6 yards per game. Something has to give on Saturday and the Rams are hoping it everything falls their way.

Colorado State’s leading rusher, Marvin Kinsey, was suspended and eventually let go from the team. However, the Rams rushing attacked hasn’t faltered at all with Marcus McElroy being the one to step up and take on the roll of a bell cow. McElroy will need to play a big role if the Rams are to win.

Prediction

This game is always a toss-up as to who wins. Yes, Air Force has won more often than not. But the results have varied widely from blowouts by both sides to three-point victories by both sides. The Rams have the ability and talent to match up well against Air Force, it’s just a matter of execution. Expect the Rams to be on after the bye week and win a close game.

CSU 38, Air Force 35

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Hawaii vs. UNLV: Three Keys To A Rebels Win

The Rebels host the Warriors in the Ninth Island Showdown. Here’s our preview of how UNLV can earn the victory.

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Hawaii vs. UNLV: Three Keys to a Rebels Win

The Rebels host the Warriors in the Ninth Island Showdown. Here’s our preview of how UNLV can earn the victory.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

How can the Rebels earn a rivalry win?

WEEK 12: Hawaii Warriors (6-4, 3-3 Mountain West) vs. UNLV Rebels (2-7, 0-5 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16 — 1:00 PM PT/11:00 AM HT

WHERE: Sam Boyd Stadium; Las Vegas, Nevada (35,500)

TV: The game will be available on Spectrum PPV in Hawaii only.

STREAMING: Mainland viewers can find the game on Facebook. Additionally, Hawaii’s radio broadcast can be streamed via ESPN Honolulu and UNLV’s broadcast can be found on TuneIn.

RADIO: The UNLV broadcast can be found in and around Las Vegas on 1100 AM and 100.9 FM.

SERIES RECORD: Hawaii leads the series 16-12. In the last meeting on November 17, 2018, the Warriors defeated the Rebels, 35-28, in Honolulu.

LAST WEEK: UNLV was on a bye after losing at Colorado State the week before, while Hawaii outlasted San Jose State at home, 42-40.

WEBSITES: HawaiiAthletics.com, the official Hawaii athletics website | UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Hawaii | UNLV

ODDS (via OddsShark): Hawaii -7

SP+ PROJECTION: Hawaii by 11.5 (75% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Hawaii by 10.1

In their quest to break a three-game losing streak, the UNLV Rebels will have their hands full on Saturday afternoon against the Hawaii Warriors, in the latest iteration of the Ninth Island Showdown.

Nick Rolovich’s run-and-shoot didn’t seem to miss a beat even with a change at quarterback last week, but the Rebels should have plenty of opportunities themselves to light up the scoreboard against a suspect Warriors defense. Here’s how UNLV can score an upset over Hawaii.

Three Keys to a UNLV Victory

1. Use the ground game to play “keep away”.

Neither team has been especially good at defending the run of late, evidenced by the fact that Hawaii and UNLV have given up 5.71 and 6.16 yards per carry, respectively, in Mountain West play. Hawaii, however, has averaged 6.01 YPC on offense in conference action while UNLV has sputtered with just 3.16 YPC, so turning that around will be paramount.

Charles Williams will get his touches one way or another, but Chad Magyar’s reemergence could be huge. Since breaking out against Vanderbilt a month ago, the sophomore running back has seen just ten, three, and five carries in the Rebels’ last three games, but finding a way to make him successful, keeping the Hawaii offense off the field, could be the path to an upset.

2. If necessary, gamble to stay on the field.

One thing that both UNLV and Hawaii have in common is that neither team is shy about setting their punt unit aside to keep the offense on the field. The Warriors and Rebels are the Mountain West’s two most aggressive teams on fourth down and while it’s worked out more often than not for UNLV, converting 15-of-29 such tries, it’s been a definitive strength for Hawaii since they are 15-of-24.

When it comes to sidelining the Hawaii offense, Tony Sanchez shouldn’t get gun shy if the right opportunity presents itself. If you see a punt on something like 4th-and-2 anywhere on Hawaii’s side of the field, something is going wrong for UNLV. Better to go out on your shield in a high-scoring affair.

3. Eliminate the drops.

At the end of October, Pro Football Focus put together a list of rankings of each FBS team’s wide receivers and the note for UNLV was particularly galling: The Rebels had dropped 22.8% of their catchable throws to that point, the fifth-worst figure in the country, and it’s hard to imagine the situation has since improved much.

Considering that Hawaii doesn’t have the same level of pass defense as prior foes like Wyoming, Boise State or San Diego State, it looks like an opportunity for Kenyon Oblad to match Chevan Cordeiro on the stat sheet but he’ll need more help from his receivers to do so.

Prediction

One thing seems certain: If you get a chance, take the over. Neither defense seems likely to offer much resistance, but it’s difficult to imagine that UNLV could match the Warriors touchdown for touchdown over a full sixty minutes. It might largely be a shootout between two rising quarterbacks, but I imagine Hawaii’s newfound prowess with running the football will make a difference late.

Hawaii 45, UNLV 35

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New Mexico vs. #21 Boise State: Three Keys To A Broncos Win

Boise State looks to remain perfect in Mountain West play against the Lobos. Here’s how they can tally another win.

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New Mexico vs. #21 Boise State: Three Keys To A Broncos Win

Boise State looks to remain perfect in Mountain West play against the Lobos. Here’s how they can tally another win.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

How can the Broncos take care of business as expected?

WEEK 12: New Mexico Lobos (2-7, 0-5 Mountain West) vs. #22 Boise State Broncos (8-1, 5-0 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16 — 8:15 PM MT/7:15 PM PT

WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, Idaho (36,387)

TV: ESPN2

STREAMING: You can get a free seven-day trial of FuboTV by clicking here. You can also find the audio broadcast on TuneIn.

RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on the Bronco Sports Network, including flagships 670 AM (KBOI) and 93.1 FM (KTIK) in Boise, while the New Mexico broadcast can be found on 770 AM (KKOB).

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the series 9-1. In the last meeting on November 16, 2018, the Broncos defeated the Lobos, 45-14, in Albuquerque.

LAST WEEK: Boise State needed overtime to beat Wyoming at home, 20-17, while New Mexico was on a bye after losing on the road at Nevada.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website | GoLobos.com, the official New Mexico athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | New Mexico

ODDS (via OddsShark): Boise State -27.5

SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 27.1 (94% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 34.5

It wasn’t easy for the Boise State Broncos to stay on top in the Mountain division race, but after a hard fought win last Saturday night, they’ll look to run it back and do it again against the New Mexico Lobos.

Bob Davie’s team returns to the field for the first time since Nahje Flowers’s unfortunate passing and, while it hasn’t shown in the win column, have proven to be pesky over the last five or six weeks. Hank Bachmeier’s uncertain health proved to be a factor in Boise State’s escape last week, too, so there’s a chance the Lobos can hang around if the Broncos don’t come out sharp.

Here’s what Boise State can do to score a win over New Mexico.

Three Keys to a Boise State Victory

1. Put the clamps on Ahmari Davis.

Even though Boise State has been stout against the run this fall, there’s a decent chance the Lobos lean early and often since their passing offense is, charitably, pretty erratic. He’s had no more than 16 carries in each of UNM’s last three games, but he has seven runs of 20-plus yards this year (tied for third among Mountain West runners) and is the most significant reason why the Lobos rank in the top 40 by Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries that gain at least four yards).

He’s also been remarkably effective in short-yardage situations, as well, with 12 first downs on 18 third-down carries with three or fewer yards to go, so the Broncos will need to make shutting him down a priority.

2. Put the ball in Chase Cord’s hands early.

This key came up with regards to Hank Bachmeier’s slow starts in last week’s preview, but it might be worth getting aggressive with the pass even if Cord ends up making the start. The Lobos have struggled mightily in defending the pass, allowing Mountain West quarterbacks to complete 64.9% of their passes at 9.2 yards per attempt, and Cord has been remarkably effective early in games.

Small sample caveats apply, but he is 11-of-12 with 124 yards passing in three first quarters. Furthermore, first down has been Cord’s best down because he currently sports a 188.04 passer rating on 37 such attempts. Khalil Shakir and John Hightower look like they could be massive mismatches, so head coach Bryan Harsin might consider letting it fly and seeing what happens.

3. Don’t let the ground game scuffle.

Boise State never really got its running backs going against Wyoming last week and while New Mexico doesn’t have quite that caliber of defense, they’ve been solid in defending the run. The Lobos have allowed 3.9 YPC in conference play and that figure may be inflated by their subpar performance against Hawaii (take it out and that figure drops to 3.1).

It’ll be interesting to see how the Broncos offensive line handles the linebacker trio of Alex Hart, Mo Vainikolo and Jacobi Hearn, who have combined for 27.5 tackles for loss and are the primary reasons UNM rank right around the national average with a 19.1% Stuff Rate and in the top 50 by Power Success Rate (percentage of runs on 3rd or 4th down, two yards or less to go, that achieve a first down or touchdown). If the Lobos keep the Broncos from consistently reaching the second level on the ground, they could hang around a lot longer than you’d expect.

Prediction

Put simply, no one should expect the Lobos to seriously challenge Boise State, but a slow start from the Broncos could enable New Mexico to keep things close for a little while. In the end, though, the UNM offense is just too erratic to see them doing anything more than hitting on a couple of big plays, without ever closing the distance.

Boise State 35, New Mexico 20

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Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Three Keys To A Bulldogs Win

The Bulldogs and Aztecs will battle for the Old Oil Can and the driver’s seat in the West division race. Here’s how Fresno State can win.

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Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Three Keys To A Bulldogs Win

The Bulldogs and Aztecs will battle for the Old Oil Can and the driver’s seat in the West division race. Here’s how Fresno State can win.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Still plenty to play for.

WEEK 12: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3 MW) vs San Diego State Aztecs (7-2, 4-2 MW)

WHEN: Friday, November 15 — 6:30 PM PT/7:30 PM MT

WHERE: SDCCU Stadium; San Diego, California (54,000)

TV: ESPN2

STREAMING: You can get a free seven-day trial of FuboTV by clicking here. You can also find the audio broadcast on TuneIn.

RADIO: The Fresno State broadcast can be found on 940 AM, while the SDSU broadcast can be found on 101.5 FM (KGB) and XTRA 1360 AM.

SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads the series 29-25-4. In the last meeting on November 17, 2018, the Bulldogs defeated the Aztecs, 23-14, in Fresno.

LAST WEEK: Fresno State lost to Utah State at home, 37-35, while San Diego State lost at home to Nevada, 17-13.

WEBSITES: GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website | GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Fresno State | San Diego State

ODDS (via OddsShark): Fresno State -1

SP+ PROJECTION: San Diego State by 2.9 (57% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: San Diego State by 1.3

The Fresno State Bulldogs have spent 2019 on an unpredictable path from week to week, but their chance to defend the Mountain West crown is still alive as they hit the road to face off with rival San Diego State.

The Old Oil Can isn’t the only thing on the line Friday, but this year’s matchup may be of a different vintage because it’s hard to imagine both teams being much more different. Rocky Long’s Aztecs have thrived on strong defense and special teams, holding opponents to the fewest points per drive since 2015 while Jeff Tedford’s offense, on that same basis, is scoring more points than any Bulldogs team since 2013.

Here’s how the Bulldogs can score a win over the Aztecs to stay in the hunt for the conference crown.

Three Keys to a Fresno State Victory

1. Try not to lose the field position game too early.

Even if the SDSU offense hasn’t always succeeded, there’s little doubt the defense has continually put them in a position to do so. The Aztecs rank fourth nationally with a 45.4% three-and-out rate and 12th in Stop Rate (percentage of drives ending with a punt, turnover, or turnover on down), and they’ve been especially good when opponents are pinned inside their 20-yard line in allowing 0.53 points per drive, which ranks seventh.

Getting at least one or two first downs in those situations could be crucial, then, since one thing these two teams have in common are that punters Blake Cusick and Brandon Heicklen have been very good this season. Fresno State and SDSU rank 15th and 31st, respectively, in net punting, so putting Cusick in a position to succeed — and putting the Aztecs in a position they have habitually struggled; they average 0.81 PPD when they are pinned inside the 20, 107th nationally — will make life easier for a depleted defense.

2. Have the better performance on the defensive line.

This one might be easier said than done. The Aztecs own a 6% sack rate that’s roughly similar to what they did in 2018, but they’ve been much more democratic about it this time around. Kyahva Tezino still has three sacks, but the defensive line trio of Keshawn Banks, Cameron Thomas and Myles Cheatum have combined for 12 sacks and 22 tackles for loss, a huge reason why San Diego State ranks second among FBS teams in Stuff Rate (plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage).

The fact that offensive tackle Syrus Tuitele and guard Quireo Woodley are dealing with nagging injuries may not help matters, either, but the good news is that the Aztecs offensive line has had its own adventures. Even without defensive end Isaiah Johnson, the latest injury casualty to be finished for the season, Mykal Walker and company should be able to step up and contain an offense that’s run the ball at its usual clip, 60%, without much success: SDSU’s 23.3% Stuff Rate on offense ranks 111th and their 3.35 YPC is down nearly two-and-a-half yards from two seasons ago.

3. Find a way to put the game in Ryan Agnew’s hands.

SDSU’s junior quarterback has been solid but he’s not what you’d call a true difference maker. He’s thrown the ball 26 times on average in the Aztecs’ seven wins, but that number jumps to 36 in their two losses with little difference in yards per attempt. Agnew is also still prone to the occasional poor decision and has struggled in more obvious passing situations, earning a first down on just 10-of-42 passes on third downs of seven or more yards. If the defense can create situations where he has to make a play, it may as well be a roll of the dice for the Aztecs but seems to favor the Bulldogs.

Prediction

The Aztecs have walked a fine line all season and you can make a reasonable case that they haven’t faced a strong and balanced offense like Fresno State all year long. There’s a lot of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness in this year’s clash, so while it’s hard to imagine a blowout on either side, it seems more likely the pedestrian SDSU offense will fail again to hold up its end of the bargain even against an iffy and banged up defense.

Fresno State 24, San Diego State 20

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