Tag: Mountain West Football

Mountain West Football: Examining Each Opponent’s Week 0 Depth Chart

What stands out in the depth charts released by Idaho State, Illinois, UConn, New Mexico State, and Vanderbilt ahead of Week 0?

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Mountain West Football: Examining Each Opponent’s Week 0 Depth Chart

What stands out in the depth charts released by Idaho State, Illinois, UConn, New Mexico State, and Vanderbilt ahead of Week 0?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

What to keep in mind before kickoff.

Idaho State (link to depth chart)

What stands out: The Bengals’ projected starting lineup on offense and defense features 12 different players who are listed as either freshmen or sophomores, as well as each of the six starters listed on special teams.

Why that could be important: Give new ISU head Charlie Ragle some credit, the program isn’t taking any half-measures in building itself back up to respectability. While some familiar names, like former Wyoming quarterback Tyler Vander Waal, center Terron Carey, and linebacker Charles Ike, will bring some much needed veteran leadership, nearly everyone else is in for a crash course through which it seems likely they’ll take a few lumps. For UNLV, it means they should be able to win this game going away if they’re set on making a leap in 2022.

Illinois (link to game notes)

What stands out: Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito is the likely starter for the Illini at quarterback.

Why that could be important: Illinois hasn’t really had a lot of juice at the game’s most important position since Nate Scheelhaase left in 2013, but DeVito could be the answer that they need at the position and may thrive under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr., who helped Frank Harris emerge at UTSA.

It’ll be crucial, then, that Wyoming finds a way to create pressure early and test how well DeVito will be able to stand in and make plays. Running back Chase Brown is likely to get his one way or another, so winning the game may depend on the Cowboys limiting damage through the air.

UConn (link to depth chart)

What stands out: With wide receiver Cameron Ross sidelined for the season with a broken foot, the depth chart at the position features three sophomores.

Why that could be important: The quarterback situation, which new head coach Jim Mora deemed as a competition between “four good players that haven’t played a lot”, will grab more headlines, but whoever emerges from that scrum is going to need reliable targets. Ross, the team’s leading pass catcher back in 2019, was expected to re-establish himself as a potential number one though it appears now that’ll fall again to Keelan Marion, who paced the Huskies in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season.

Kevens Clericus, the projected starter opposite Marion, did have 20 catches in 2021 while grad transfer Nigel Fitzgerald did get some playing time himself at Old Dominion. For Utah State’s purposes, it clarifies who the defense is likely to prioritize in shutting down the UConn offense.

New Mexico State (link to depth chart)

What stands out: A couple of familiar names appear in the secondary’s two deep. Former UNLV safety Bryce Jackson is listed as a starter opposite sophomore Dylan Early, while former Colorado State cornerback Linwood Crump is expected to provide some depth.

Why that could be important: The strength of the Aggies defense is at linebacker, but they still gave up far too many big plays in 2021 and that is something about which Nevada is almost certainly familiar. Cornerbacks Syrus Dumas and D.J. McCullough combined for five interceptions last season, but the rest of the defense had five interceptions combined. Don’t be shocked if the Wolf Pack try to test the transfer-reinforced secondary early.

Vanderbilt (link to depth chart)

What stands out: Mike Wright, named as the starting quarterback, will have some young wide receivers to throw to after Will Sheppard in sophomore Quincy Skinner and freshman Jayden McGowan.

Why that could be important: The Commodores aren’t wasting time surrounding their new QB1 with the weapons they’ve deemed most reliable, but neither Skinner nor McGowan have caught a pass at the FBS level yet. That’s not to say both can’t step up and contribute as expected — Skinner was previously part of a state championship team at Florida’s St. Thomas Aquinas while McGowan was a track star and deep threat receiver in his home state of South Carolina — but Hawaii’s veteran-laden secondary will get a decent test right away.

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Idaho State vs. UNLV: Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Rebels will host the FCS Bengals to begin their 2022 college football season. Here’s how to tune in and what to watch for.

Idaho State vs. UNLV: Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Rebels will host the FCS Bengals to begin their 2022 college football season. Here’s how to tune in and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

The Rebels look to start the year with a victory.

WEEK 0: Idaho State Bengals vs. UNLV Rebels

WHEN: Saturday, August 27 — 12:30 PM PT/1:30 PM MT

WHERE: Allegiant Stadium; Las Vegas, NV

WEATHER: Sunny, high of 100 degrees (note: game to be played indoors)

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBSSN, by following this link.

You can stream the UNLV radio broadcast on The Varsity Network app, which is available for Android and Apple devices.

RADIO: The UNLV broadcast can be found in and around Las Vegas ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM. The Idaho State broadcast can be found in Pocatello on 91.1 FM (KISU).

SERIES RECORD: UNLV leads the all-time series, 6-2.

WEBSITES: ISUBengals.com, the official Idaho State athletics website | UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Idaho State | UNLV

ODDS: no line

SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV 33.8, Idaho State 11.4

FEI PROJECTION: N/A

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: N/A

When UNLV’s 2022 season kicks off in Allegiant Stadium on Saturday afternoon, questions will inevitably include comparisons to its 2-10 campaign in 2021.

That schedule included a double-overtime loss to FCS opponent Eastern Washington that made headlines for all the wrong reasons. A quarterback change, a running game that simply couldn’t compensate for the struggles in the passing game and a defense giving up almost 500 yards left a lot of questions to sort out at the start of a tough season. The Rebels eventually finished the 2021 with two wins in their last four games, eager to build on that late success for this season.

2022 finds the Rebels facing the Idaho State Bengals, and at the risk of calling this a “must-win” game, this could be another FCS team testing a UNLV squad as a gauge for the season ahead.

What kind of offense should we expect? How is the quarterback play? WHO is the quarterback?

At the time of this writing, no starting quarterback has been named, but incoming transfer Harrison Bailey and returning starter Doug Brumfield are at the top of the depth chart. Bailey seemingly represents the potential for more explosive plays downfield; Brumfield is more of a dual-threat quarterback, with the ability to affect the running and passing games.

Coach Marcus Arroyo’s decision on the starter for Saturday will be the first step in forging an identity this season. For an offense that finished 92nd among FBS teams with just over 200 passing yards per game, the Rebels will be looking for a fast start.

What will the run/pass balance look like? 

Against Idaho State, a team that struggled mightily on defense in 2021, the Rebels should be able to move the ball effectively. The depth at wide receiver – including junior Kyle Williams and transfer Ricky White – brings the potential for big plays against the Bengals. Incoming transfer Aidan Robbins, along with returning players Chad Magyar (84 attempts) and Courtney Reese (34), will lead the running game for UNLV and should help set the tempo on offense. After ranking in the bottom half nationally at 4.9 yards per play, expect the Rebels to mix in a variety of plays early on, then stick with what works most effectively against Idaho State.

Mountain West Football: First Look At The Idaho State Bengals

What about the defense? 

If there’s a game the Rebels can show potential in for the season, this is the one. After finishing last in the conference in scoring defense for 2021, the Rebels will need improvement across their front seven. An experienced secondary includes cornerbacks Nohl Williams and Cameron Oliver, potential breakout candidates for 2022, and may lead this defense to start the season, but this defense overall will need to quickly round into form before conference games begin.

Prediction

These two teams won a combined three games in 2021, and both will look for a new start to their respective seasons. Although no lines have been posted at the time of this writing, UNLV is already projected as a 3-touchdown-plus favorite, and are expected to head into their second game vs California at 1-0.

There’s a lot for the Rebels to pull together on offense, and the defense will need to show improvement, but Idaho State is in the midst of their own rebuild with a new head coach. Look for UNLV to possibly struggle at times, but still get the win to open 2022.

UNLV 34, Idaho State 13

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Mountain West Football: Boise State Leads 2022 Preseason FEI Projection

Brian Fremeau unveils the preseason projection of college football’s most efficient teams from drive to drive and what means for scoring.

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Mountain West Football: Boise State Leads 2022 Preseason FEI Projection

Brian Fremeau unveils the preseason projection of college football’s most efficient teams from drive to drive and what means for scoring.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Who could be the Mountain West’s most potent teams?

Hot on the heels of Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections comes the FEI projection from Brian Fremeau, released today. Unlike SP+, which examines teams and their efficiency on a play-by-play basis, the FEI metric does so drive by drive, the end result of which, according to Fremeau himself, represents “the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent”.

If that sounds like a lot, suffice it to say the longer your drives are consistently, the better off you’ll be. With that in mind, the FEI projection comes with a few results that may come as a surprise at first glance:

  • 24. Boise State — #53 offense, #26 defense
  • 31. Air Force — #7 offense, #56 defense
  • 48. Fresno State — #65 offense, #42 defense
  • 54. San Diego State — #112 offense, #15 defense
  • 61. Utah State — #64 offense, #54 defense
  • 71. Nevada — #71 offense, #69 defense
  • 79. Wyoming — #98 offense, #57 defense
  • 92. Colorado State — #99 offense, #80 defense
  • 97. Hawaii — #94 offense, #106 defense
  • 110. San Jose State — #122 offense, #76 defense
  • 114. UNLV — #107 offense, #117 defense
  • 124. New Mexico — #130 offense, #105 defense

While Boise State leads the Mountain West in both efficiency projections, FEI has a cooler stand on the Broncos defense and a rosier outlook for the offense. Air Force also comes out ahead of Fresno State in this measure on the strength of an offense that projects here to be one of the most effective in the country, wedged between Ole Miss and Notre Dame within the top ten.

Another team with a more optimistic outlook here is Utah State, though the reason for it may come as a surprise: Unlike SP+, the Aggies defense actually has the more optimistic projection. They aren’t alone, however, as Nevada, Wyoming, and Hawaii all have substantial improvements in outlook, as well.

By contrast, there is really only one team with a dimmer forecast here when compared to SP+. The San Jose State Spartans offense will have some work to do, it appears, to overcome bottom-ten projections in both measures.

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Mountain West Football: Key Newcomers Atop Each Week 0 Depth Chart

The five Mountain West teams playing in Week 0 has new faces atop their respective depth charts. These players could be most crucial.

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Mountain West Football: Key Newcomers Atop Each Week 0 Depth Chart

Each of the five Mountain West teams playing in Week 0 has some new faces atop their respective depth charts. These players could be most crucial.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Who might be key to a strong start?

Hawaii — Matagi Thompson, S

The Warriors had a lot of personnel turnover early in the off-season and, at least in their first depth chart of the year, seem to have done a goob job replacing those losses with veteran talents who earned starting roles. One exception who stands out is Thompson, the only true freshman listed anywhere atop the two-deep.

Thompson starred at Honolulu’s Punahou School last year and now seems to be the leading edge of the program’s reemphasis on local talent, beating out fellow Punahou alum Noa Kamana among others. If nothing else, it makes him worth keeping an eye on as a potential cornerstone of the future.

Nevada — Bryce Petersen, C

Aaron Frost’s recent injury means that the Union, at least in Week 0, will look totally different from last year’s iteration, but no one will be more important among the newcomers than Petersen. Oddly enough, as Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray noted back in May, this is six years in the making.

In that interim, though, Petersen made 30 starts at Akron between 2018 and 2020 before leaving the Zips via the transfer portal in August last year. It wouldn’t be until December that he announced his destination, San Jose State, but he eventually found his way to Reno after re-entering the portal in late April. Now, he’ll be responsible for calling protections in a brand-new Wolf Pack offense.

UNLV — Elijah Shelton, STUD

With Jacoby Windmon’s transfer portal departure to Michigan State and Brennon Scott still on the mend from a spring injury, the task of providing a spark to the Rebels pass rush will fall first and foremost to Shelton, a tall order if there ever was one.

A transfer from Utah who joined the team in April, Shelton didn’t see any action last season with the Utes but did see a handful of starts at his prior stop, Utah State, across 2019 and 2020, and posted double-digit tackles in the Aggies’ Frisco Bowl victory in the former season. If he can prove to be a productive complement to Adam Plant Jr., the UNLV defense could be in very good shape.

Utah State — Kaleo Neves, STRIKER

A veteran of 24 games across the last three seasons, the time to shine is now for Neves. Week 0 won’t be his first career start, as that came against Air Force back in 2020, but he’ll be stepping into the role previously handled by Cash Gilliam and Andre Grayson, among others, and will be counted upon to contribute as part of a unit that played its best ball at the end of 2021 and will strive to keep that rolling.

Wyoming — Shae Suiaunoa, LB

With Easton Gibbs locking down one linebacker spot for the foreseeable future, Suiaunoa appears to be the one in line to be his first primary running mate in the middle of the defense. Primarily a special teams contributor in his first three years with the Cowboys, the former high school quarterback will have big shoes to fill in occupying Gibbs’ former role while Gibbs slides to the middle and replaces Chad Muma. Suiaunoa served as an understudy in 2021, however, and should be as prepared as anyone to step up and hit someone for sixty minutes.

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Mountain West Football: 12 Stats That Could Shape The 2022 Season

Every team in the Mountain West has at least one metric that could go a long way toward determining how the 2022 football season shakes out.

Mountain West Football: 12 Stats That Could Shape The 2022 Season

Every team in the Mountain West has at least one metric that could go a long way toward determining how the 2022 football season shakes out.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Numbers don’t lie.

The Mountain West football season is mere days away now, which means that every team in the conference has a blank slate and limitless aspirations. It also means rectifying some of the things that may have held programs back, or bolstering some of the surprising elements that helped propel others forward.

In other words, everyone has their eye on improving something on the stat sheet, but what could those figures be? Here are the numbers worth keeping in mind that should play a large role throughout the 2022 campaign:

1.25

This number represents the difference in points per drive scored by New Mexico from 2020 to 2021. During the COVID-shortened season, the Lobos managed 2.04 PPD, good enough to rank 84th among FBS teams, before injuries and inexperience sank them to dead last a year ago with 0.79. Because it is extremely unlikely that they will struggle to that magnitude again, the story of their season may just come down to how much positive regression to the mean UNM can muster.

4.2

UNLV has developed a fair share of promising prospects under Marcus Arroyo, including last year’s freshman of the year Cameron Friel, but one thing that plagued the Rebels was a 4.2% interception rate that persisted throughout the season-long quarterback shuffle. Cutting down on those killer mistakes will go a long way toward helping the men in Vegas make headway in their trek back to bowl eligibility.

5.92

Once opponents figured out how to attack Nevada’s front with their ground game, the Wolf Pack often struggled to contain it: In Nevada’s five losses, they gave up 5.92 yards per carry, the worst average in the Mountain West and 119th among all FBS teams. That’s also borne out in a defensive opportunity rate allowed that ranked 126th overall (55.9%) and a stuff rate which was 120th (13.1%), so how well the Pack can rectify that hindrance while navigating so much personnel shuffling will define much of their first year under Ken Wilson.

6

The San Jose State Spartans did pretty well for itself in 2021 defending the pass, finishing fourth in the Mountain West in allowing 6.9 yards per attempt and second with 56 passes broken up despite a 62.7% opponents completion rate that ranked next-to-last. However, San Jose State had just six interceptions on the season, an unusually low number given that many passes defended. That goes a long way toward explaining why the Spartans were also dead last in the conference with just 12 total takeaways, so if you’re looking for areas of positive regression, this is one of them.

9.7

You could argue that, for as good as Air Force has often been in the past several years, they haven’t been able to reach their true ceiling in part because of an occasionally leaky pass defense. That was no less true in 2021: In the Falcons’ three losses, they allowed an average of 9.7 yards per attempt, the highest in the Mountain West and in keeping with similar such struggles stretching back to 2017.

20.8

One big question that Boise State faces headed into the season is where the offense’s explosive plays will come from now that Khalil Shakir has moved on to the NFL. To that point, 16 of Shakir’s 77 receptions in 2021, or 20.8%, went for 20 or more yards. By contrast  leading returning receiver Stefan Cobbs had six in 34 catches, or 17.6%. That difference of maybe one chunk play per game could make a big difference in the Broncos’ hopes of a rebound.

29

Turnovers plagued the Hawaii Warriors in both of Todd Graham’s season at the helm, a problem he never really resolved after inheriting it from Nick Rolovich. Last year, Hawaii had 29 giveaways, the third straight season in which they ranked last in the Mountain West, so while there’s every expectation that new head coach Timmy Chang and offensive coordinator Ian Shoemaker will bring back a familiar kind of wide-open passing attack, how well they take care of the football could determine how much they surprise this fall

40.82

One element of the game that is likely to change at Colorado State is increased aggression on offense when close to the red zone. It isn’t hard to make a case that Steve Addazio was way too conservative in that regard: The Rams settled for a field goal on 40.82% of trips inside the 20-yard line last year, just the third Mountain West team since 2009 to top 40% in such situations. That won’t happen again, but how many of those trips are replaced with touchdowns instead remains to be seen.

51.85

Utah State played like a much different team in the back half of their championship run last season, but one lingering problem which could be corrected as an aid to their title defense is greater red zone efficiency. Excluding the abbreviated 2020 season, the Aggies offense converted just 51.85% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the worst figure of any conference champion since 2013.

73.2

One subtle measure which had often helped Craig Bohl’s Wyoming offenses throughout his tenure was better-than-you-think starting field position. Between 2016 and 2020, the Cowboys had finished in the top 50 nationally four times by that statistic, but they didn’t get that benefit in 2021: On average, Wyoming started with 73.2 yards to go on offense, not ideal for an attack which was only average (5.8 yards per play) within the Mountain West, but that could change if the return game can find a reliable contributor.

99

Fresno State had strong units on both sides of the ball last year, but the Bulldogs often had a habit of making things more difficult than they had to be. To wit, the Bulldogs racked up 99 total penalties last season, their per-game average of 7.6 being the most in the Mountain West, and they tended to be particularly damaging in the team’s three losses (eight against Oregon, ten against Hawaii, 11 against Boise State). Cleaning up the sloppiness will be crucial for Fresno State’s title hopes.

35,000

That’s the seating capacity at Snapdragon Stadium, the new home of San Diego State football. Despite the overwhelming amount of success the Aztecs had over the last couple years, there’s no doubt that having to play at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, some 114 miles from their new digs, neutralized the homefield advantage that everyone typically enjoys, as their attendance topped out at 13,445 in the conference championship game at Utah State.

You have to imagine that problem is now a thing of the past. The anticipation for the new stadium has been building for years and fans on the Mesa have been overwhelmingly receptive to the Aztecs’ new home, and their presence could take the team’s recent performance to a whole new plane in 2022.

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San Diego State Football: First Look At The Toledo Rockets

The Aztecs will duel with a like-minded opponent when Toledo visits Snapdragon Stadium in late September.

San Diego State Football: First Look At The Toledo Rockets

The Aztecs will face off against a like-minded opponent when the Toledo Rockets visit Snapdragon Stadium in late September.

Contact/Follow @tedmcgovern & @MWCwire

The Rockets haven’t had the same level of success as the Aztecs- but SDSU must be careful to avoid an upset.

San Diego State Football: First Look at 2022 Non-conference Opponents

Arizona | Idaho State | Utah | Toledo

San Diego, CA– Toledo, Ohio is known for several things: the Mud Hens, Lebanese food, the Maumee River. “The Glass City” also celebrates the Toledo Rockets, a formidable Missouri Valley Conference mid-major college football team who will be visiting Snapdragon Stadium in late September.

The Rockets are a strong mid-major opponent, and the Aztecs vs. Rockets will be one of the more energized matchups throughout the Mountain West’s non-conference docket. The Rockets will be the third team EVER to face off against the Aztecs in their shiny new Snapdragon Stadium this September, and they will play to win.

The Rockets, like the Aztecs, have a powerhouse defense and ground game offense. Because of that, the game could play like a strategic chess match between defensive-minded coaches. The Rockets haven’t had the same level of success as the Aztecs- but SDSU will have to be sharp to avoid an upset.

Hometown: Toledo, Ohio

Conference: Mid-American

Series History: This will be the first meeting between SDSU and Toledo.

2021 Record: 7-6 (5-3 MAC)

Head Coach: Jason Candle (eighth year at Toledo, 45-27 overall).

Key Players

Jamal Hines, DE

Veteran Jamal Hines is a menacing veteran “quarterback assasin.”  He returns on the outside coming off his best season in his four years. He led the way for Toledo last year with ten sacks.

Desjuan Johnson, DT

Two-time All-MAC defensive end Desjuan Johnson leads the Rockets after registering 70 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in 2021.  He will test the Aztecs’ offensive line.

Dequan Finn, QB

Sophomore Dequan Finn is the play caller the Rockets can build their program around. The young, efficient quarterback made 18 touchdown passes with just two interceptions and ran for 505 yards and nine touchdowns. He must build on accuracy, but he has a bright future. With Carter Bradley transferring to South Alabama, Finn is now top dog.

Maxen Hook, S

The safety combination of Maxen Hook and Nate Bauer will likely combine for close to 150 tackles once again. Hook led the two safeties with 95 tackles as a freshman in 2021.

Devin Maddox, WR

The receiving corps is led by Devin Maddox who caught 41 passes for 567 yards and four touchdowns in 2021. Maddox is also on special teams and last year he was an All-MAC punt returner.

Overview:

Offense

Toledo offense led the MAC in scoring averaging 33 points per game, advanced 435 yards per game, and was the best in the nation at limiting the turnovers with just seven on the year. The key all-stars from last year are gone, but Toledo has great up and comers.

Dequan Finn gives the Rockets’ a new chance at mid major greatness. His potential is uplifting for another great team that has fallen prey to the endless churn of the menacing college football transfer portal.

The receiving corps loses leading yardage receiver Isaiah Winstead to East Carolina and leading touchdown catcher Matt Landers to Arkansas. Even so, Devin Maddox is the veteran who led with 41 catches for 567 yards and four scores. Finn and Maddox are talented, but offense needs fledgling players to step up fast.

Toledo’s pass protection must get stronger, and tackles for loss were too common last season. Yet, it’s going to be another solid group for the run game even with two starters gone, and all-star caliber blocker in Nick Rosi will definitely be in the fold after being sidelined last year.

Losing 1,400-yard, 15 touchdown back Bryant Koback early to the NFL Minnesota Vikings as an un-drafted free agent is a massive hit, but quarterback Finn, the second-leading rusher, still remains.  Shortstop tailbacks Jacquez Stuart and Micah Kelly both return after combining for an average 5.4 yards per carry on their 564 yards. They will have an opportunity and a need to step up this year.

Defense

The Rockets have the MAC’s TOP defense with eight starters back.  Still, Toledo has drawn unnecessary penalties, thanks to a tempermental defense. They also missed several takeaway opportunities last year. Even with these factors, Toledo still led the MAC in scoring defense and was second overall allowing 350 yards and 22 points per game.

Veteran Jamal Hines returns on the outside coming off his best season in his four years. He led the way with ten sacks, Desjuan Johnson was second on the team with 4.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss on the other side, and Dyontae Johnson was formidable as well.

If Jackson Barrow can handle the work as mid linebacker after his 42-tackle season, this will be the best linebacking squad the MAC has seen in years.

The outside linebackers take care of the pass rush, but DT Judge Culpepper is a good interior presence.

The Rockets’ secondary is compromised unfortunately.  Nonetheless, the safety combo of Maxen Hook and Nate Bauer should account for around 150 tackles again. Quinyon Mitchell and Chris McDonald are two solid corners who will do their best to play their role.

Early Prediction

Jason Candle’s Rockets, and will enter the game with a strong defense and a few solid offensive weapons- and an expectation to beat the Aztecs. The Rockets have a few minor issues in their offensive line, as well as with their secondary- and many top players entered the transfer portal last year. The Aztecs will be locked and loaded with their elite defense, as the Rockets have their solid defense on display.  The Aztecs do have the ability to chew up clock time on offense, to help shape their destiny. Both teams handle the ball well.

With a new stadium and an absolutely electric fanbase, Aztec home field advantage will be amplified.  Brady Hoke has set a high bar this season as well.  Through time management and careful avoidance of turnovers, the Aztecs should keep control. The Rockets will post several touchdowns, but the Aztecs should maintain the upper hand in this game. Expect a fiercely contested match- and an SDSU win.

San Diego State 27,  Toledo 17

Mountain West Football: Boise State Leads Final 2022 SP+ Projections

The final revision of Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric finds the Broncos in front of a field with four Mountain West teams in the top 60.

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Mountain West Football: Boise State Leads Final 2022 SP+ Projections

The final revision of Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric finds the Broncos in front of a field with four Mountain West teams in the top 60.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Get ready for a fun race to the top.

Now that Week 0 is officially less than a week away, ESPN’s Bill Connelly provided the last update to his preseason SP+ projections this morning, a way to examine the sport’s most efficient teams in a manner that adjusts for opponents and tempo.

Unlike the first rankings released in February and the first revision unveiled in late May, some adjustments to how things are measured, explained in more detail by Connelly on Twitter but summed up as “[letting] the results speak for themselves a bit more”, meant big moves for a handful of teams in the conference.

  • 35. Boise State — #69 offense, #12 defense (+8 from February/May)
  • 45. Fresno State — #43 offense, #45 defense (-6 from February, -8 from May)
  • 53. Air Force — #64 offense, #44 defense (+12 from February, +11 from May)
  • 59. San Diego State — #91 offense, #27 defense (+8 from February/May)
  • 77. Utah State — #55 offense, #94 defense (+14 from February/May)
  • 95. San Jose State — #121 offense, #59 defense (+1 from February, -12 from May)
  • 96. Colorado State — #109 offense, #71 defense (-10 from February, -9 from May)
  • 111. Wyoming — #125 offense, #86 defense (-26 from February, -7 from May)
  • 116. Nevada — #102 offense, #114 defense (+4 from February, +1 from May)
  • 117. UNLV — #112 offense, #108 defense (-8 from February, -7 from May)
  • 123. Hawaii — #101 offense, #129 defense (-1 from February, -2 from May)
  • 125. New Mexico — #131 offense, #81 defense (+1 from February/May)

At the top of the conference, Boise State leapfrogs Fresno State for the number one projection after being second in both February and May, while Air Force and Utah State make double-digit climbs themselves up the rankings. By contrast, the Wyoming Cowboys see far and away the largest decline of any Mountain West team, followed by San Jose State, the aforementioned Bulldogs, and the UNLV Rebels.

Overall, the Mountain West as a whole ranks seventh among the FBS conferences in terms of average rating, ahead of the Sun Belt and behind the American Athletic Conference, coming out ahead on defense in particular. One measure that weighs the conference down as a whole is returning production, where the average figure of 53.7% ranks last:

  • 15. Fresno State — 77% returning production (81% offense, 72% defense)
  • 30. Boise State — 71% (69% offense, 81% defense)
  • 58. San Jose State — 65% (57% offense, 72% defense)
  • 63. UNLV — 64% (64% offense, 64% defense)
  • 67. Air Force — 63% (66% offense, 60% defense)
  • 81. New Mexico — 60% (49% offense, 72% defense)
  • 86. Colorado State — 59% (46% offense, 73% defense)
  • 100. San Diego State — 55% (44% offense, 66% defense)
  • 122. Utah State — 47% (55% offense, 39% defense)
  • 129. Wyoming — 35% (32% offense, 38% defense)
  • 130. Hawaii — 27% (33% offense, 21% defense)
  • 131. Nevada — 22% (18% offense, 25% defense)

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Mountain West Football: 2022 Off-Season Winners And Losers

Now that college football season is a week away, we take a look at the Mountain West’s winners and losers at the end of the summer.

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Mountain West Football: 2022 Off-Season Winners And Losers

Now that college football season is a week away, we take a look at the Mountain West’s winners and losers at the end of the summer.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the off-season that was.

We are officially in Week 0, when four different Mountain West teams will help to kick off the college football season. That makes this the perfect time to look back at everything that has happened since late December and now to determine the biggest winners and losers from the off-season.

Winners

1. Colorado State

In terms of turning the page on the Steve Addazio era, pretty much everything has gone right for the Rams. They landed their head coach of choice, Jay Norvell, from Nevada, and then landed a wealth of talent from the transfer portal in addition to a pretty strong recruiting class.

On top of that, quarterback of the present and future Clay Millen has affirmed why he was first seen as such in Reno. It’s good vibes only at the new Fort Air Raid, so while we’ll have to wait to see how strong a likely rebound is, CSU fans should feel optimistic that the program is finally headed in the direction they envisioned it would go.

2. Utah State

The defending Mountain West champions haven’t received an overwhelming amount of respect this off-season, but after sifting aggressively through the transfer portal once again, the Aggies are in good shape to compete for another title.

The players they brought in that front weren’t the splashiest pickups in the conference — MJ Tafisi, Brian Cobbs, Daniel Grzesiak, Gurvan Hall — but each appears to be in a position to contribute as expected this fall. With one of the Mountain West’s best quarterbacks, one of its best running backs, a very experienced offensive line, and increasingly rare head coach/coordinators continuity all back in the fold, too, all that’s left is ensuring Utah State comes out and plays like the team which peaked in the second half of 2021 rather than the team which needed time to find its footing in the first half.

3. Air Force 

While the Falcons didn’t get to enjoy the influx of transfer portal talent that every other team did, they also didn’t lose anything that they couldn’t easily replace. Backup quarterback Warren Bryan moved on, but the team is high on Zac Larrier. They lost a couple running backs but, well, they have plenty of those. Jordan Jackson got drafted into the NFL, but Jayden Thiergood and others are ready to step up.

While it remains to be seen how well Brian Knorr will replace John Rudzinski as defensive coordinator, his ascension to the role was another win for Troy Calhoun and continuity among his staff. Plus, they unveiled some sick alternate uniforms last week. A news desert is often good news in Colorado Springs, so there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the season ahead at the Academy.

Losers

1. UNLV’s defense

Good teams can often afford to lose good players, but teams further down the standings who lose good players have less margin for error in replacing them. That’s why, while the Rebels weren’t plundered in the transfer portal like others in the conference, UNLV could feel it more than most in the task of replacing Jacoby Windmon, who left for Michigan State, and holding their breath on Brennon Scott, whose status for 2022 is up in the air following a spring injury.

Other veterans left through the transfer portal, too, like Bryce Jackson and Tre Caine, which means that the Rebels are relying on a Utah State-esque coalescence of new faces to buck years of struggles. Even if the offense improves, UNLV could be looking instead at a season where they end up on the wrong end of a few shootouts because they lack havoc in the front seven.

2. Wyoming

The overarching message of the Wyoming off-season is that Craig Bohl and his coaching staff were betting on themselves and their track record of developing talent, which made their limited dabbling in the transfer portal a mild disappointment.

Most of the reason they land here, though, is personnel losses. In additional to their substantial departures through the portal, more recently the Cowboys also saw offensive lineman Latrell Bible leave the team and suffered two bits of rotten injury luck when Buck Coors and Gunner Gentry both went down with season-ending injuries during fall camp. Wyoming expects that judicious decision-making to restock at quarterback, cornerback, and the defensive line will help them hold the line in an increasingly competitive Mountain division, but that’s a parlay which may not completely land.

3. San Diego State skeptics

One of my favorite fun facts is that San Diego State has actually won more games than Boise State since the 2015 season, and while there’s context in that fact (COVID and bowl game cancelations meant a few less games overall for the Broncos), it speaks to a change in how we should perceive the football program. They aren’t building toward something anymore, they’ve arrived.

And now? Now the Aztecs are leveling up with a new home, Snapdragon Stadium, that’s received rave reviews from players and fans alike. They landed their quarterback of choice, Braxton Burmeister, from the transfer portal and, dare I say it, look like they might be a little more explosive overall on offense. They bring arguably more momentum into 2022 than anyone else in the Mountain West, no easy feat considering the optimism out of Fort Collins, the Hawaiian islands, and Boise.

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Mountain West Football: Eight Junior College Transfers Who Could Shape The 2022 Season

There are new faces across the Mountain West who emerged from the junior college ranks and could influence the race to the top this fall.

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Mountain West Football: Eight Junior College Transfers Who Could Shape The 2022 Season

There are new faces across the Mountain West who emerged from the junior college ranks and could influence the race to the top this fall.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Unfamiliar names could join the big time.

The 2022 Mountain West football season is nearly upon us at this point, fall camps are at or near their conclusion, and live action will get underway next week. There’s a sense of who the stars are across the conference that will drive most of the competition and conversation throughout the next several months, and how transfers from elsewhere across the FBS landscape will impact the race to the top.

What about their junior college counterparts, though? In recent years, we’ve seen players like Tristan Nichols, Derek Wright, Joey Noble, and Keric Wheatfall have played key roles on their respective teams after coming into the conference without a great deal of attention. With the 2022 juco recruits now taking part in on-field activities, here’s a look at a handful of players who could play major roles in the season to come.

Jeffrey Weimer, WR, UNLV

Much of the Rebels’ progress in 2022 will depend on their offense taking a step forward, but with Charles Williams gone it won’t revolve so much around just one star this fall and will demand whoever starts at quarterback to make more plays.

Enter Weimer, who helped the City College of San Francisco win the California junior college title last year as its lead pass catcher with 77 catches for 1,268 yards and 17 touchdowns. Given that he’s already received praise in fall camp for his work ethic, he could be the much-needed complement to Kyle Williams that will make the UNLV passing game that much more dangerous.

D’Andre Greeley, DB, Colorado State

Another product of the CCSF football program, Greeley played just as big as role as Weimer in the team’s run to the title… if not bigger. After all, the last of his ten interceptions came with less than two minutes left in the championship contest against Riverside and stymied a scoring threat in the red zone. If he plays a major role in replacing the likes of Rashad Ajayi and Marshaun Cameron, don’t be surprised.

Cortez Hogans, DL, Boise State

The Broncos will look for more out of their pass rush than they got in 2021, and Hogans could be part of that rebound. He spent 2021 at Utah’s Snow College after three years at Northern Illinois and thrived, registering 26 total tackles, eight tackles for loss, and three sacks, so he could be a key component in a defense already facing high expectations.

Noah Kema, LB, Hawaii

The Warriors are building their defense very nearly from scratch, which means that there are plenty of opportunities for athletes like Kema to step into big roles. Like Hogans, Kema spent 2021 at Snow College; unlike Hogans, Kema was named by Rivals as a 2021 preseason first-team juco All-American and played a key role in the Badgers’ run to the NJCAA national championship game the year before that with 79 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, and six pass breakups.

Terrell Vaughn, WR, Utah State

The Aggies need to replace multiple pass catchers from their championship team a year ago and Vaughn might just be the Brandon Bowling analogue they want. In his time at Ventura Junior College in southern California, he had 149 catches, a program record, and 1,715 yards with 20 touchdowns. At 5-foot-7 and 170 pounds, he could potentially thrive in the slot or, better yet, develop into the next Deven Thompkins under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Anthony Tucker.

Evan Svoboda, QB, Wyoming

The Cowboys have a type at quarterback, huh? Svoboda certainly looks the part as he’s listed on the Wyoming roster at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, and the tape suggests he has tantalizing arm strength, but patience may be a virtue. He spent 2021 with Hogans and Kema at Snow College, but he was a backup last year. That Craig Bohl and his coaching staff saw something they liked, however, bears watching.

Noah Lavulo, DL, San Jose State

Lavulo might be flying most under the radar among this group, but would it be a surprise if he fit right in among one of the Spartans’ biggest strengths? At the nearby College of San Mateo, he picked up 61 total tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, and two forced fumbles across the 2019 and 2021 seasons. There won’t be much pressure for him to take on too much with Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall leading the way, but youbdont have to squint to envision him thriving in a rotation role like Tre Smith did a year ago.

Sherod White, RB, New Mexico

The Lobos might consider multiple options for replacing Aaron Dumas in the backfield, but White should be among the options who get a long look. At California’s Mt. San Jacinto College last season, the 5-foot-9, 195 pound Menifee native averaged an astounding 7.3 yards on 138 carries, posting 1,001 rushing yards in all. He also chipped in to the passing game, as well, with 37 catches for 483 yards, and totaled 20 touchdowns, meaning that he could provide a do-it-all skill set that’s been missing among New Mexico’s running backs for some time.

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2022 Mountain West Football Top 50: #1, Fresno State QB Jake Haener

The Bulldogs quarterback is the top-ranked player on our preseason countdown of Mountain West football’s best headed into the 2022 season.

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2022 Mountain West Football Top 50: #1, Fresno State QB Jake Haener

The Bulldogs quarterback is the top-ranked player on our preseason countdown of Mountain West football’s best headed into the 2022 season.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

The pride of the San Joaquin Valley.

It’s no secret that Fresno State football history has a long list of great quarterbacks: Kevin Sweeney, Trent Dilfer, David and Derek Carr, Marcus McMaryion and, now, Jake Haener, the number player on this year’s preseason countdown of Mountain West football’s elite.

Haener originally committed to Washington and saw time in four games during the 2018 season before transferring to Fresno State and sitting out the following year. That layoff would prove worth the wait, though: While the Bulldogs battled the vagaries of COVID throughout 2020, Haener averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game and completed 64.7% of those throws, averaged 8.7 yards per attempt, and threw 14 touchdowns against five interceptions.

2021 was even better. Though he got beaten up at times throughout the season, most notably in a memorable win over UCLA, Haener finished second in the Mountain West with a 67.1% completion rate and 4,096 passing yards while throwing 33 touchdowns with an interception rate of 1.8%.

That sets the stage for a 2022 season where the expectations among the Red Wave are as high as they’ve ever been. Haener will have a tall task on his hands guiding the Bulldogs toward another conference title, and perhaps more, but the preseason offensive player of the year will be dangerous every week no matter what.

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