Tag: Mountain West Fooball

Air Force vs. Army: How the Falcons can defeat the Black Knights

Air Force vs. Army: How the Falcons can defeat the Black Knights The Falcons Look For Their 39th Win Over Army Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force retain the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy? WEEK 10: Air Force Falcons 8-0 (5-0) vs. Army Black …

Air Force vs. Army: How the Falcons can defeat the Black Knights

The Falcons Look For Their 39th Win Over Army

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force retain the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy?

WEEK 10: Air Force Falcons 8-0 (5-0) vs. Army Black Knights 2-6

WHEN: Saturday, November 3rd — 12:30 P.M. MT/ 11:30 A.M. PT

WHERE: Mile High Stadium (Denver, CO)

WEATHER: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 62F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network; John Sadak (play-by-play), Randy Cross (analyst), Tina Cervasio (sidelines)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 38-18-1

WEBSITES: GoArmyWestPoint.com, the official Army West Point athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Army | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 22

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 20.3

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS:

Air Force is currently riding a 13-game win streak, dating back to 2022 as they are soaring towards securing a place in the Mountain West Championship game. Something the Falcons haven’t done since that magical ride Karson Roberts led them on back in 2015. Forget all of that though, because it’s ‘Beat Army’ week.

Yes, winning their first Mountain West Conference Championship would be an amazing accomplishment for the United States Air Force Academy. But there is universally one athletic objective that is unrivaled each and every season, and that is to win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

Well, they’re halfway there as Bon Jovi famously sings. Two weeks ago, they beat Navy. Now, they must do something they haven’t done in seven seasons if they want to mark this mission accomplished; beat Army in consecutive years.

You couldn’t have two teams going in more opposite directions. Jeff Monken’s bunch are losers of five in a row, failing to score a single point in two of their last three contests. Air Force by contrast has yet to lose a game in 2023, winning every game by multiple scores, with the lone exception of their thriller over Wyoming at Falcon Staduim.

What has been a special run for Air Force can take a quick nosedive if they don’t finish the mission. They must beat Army to win their 21st Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, failing to do so by all accounts will drastically marginalize anything else they accomplish this year.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN BEAT ARMY (again)

One of the major story lines for Army coming into the year was their “revamped” offense. They no longer consider themselves a conventional triple option offense, bringing in Drew Thatcher from Nebraska- Kerney, of Division II to shake things up. It suffices to say, the evolution is a work-in-progress.

In this new offense Army has tried to incorporate a passing attack to keep the opposition honest, operating typically from shotgun formations. They still run the ball, but not as effectively as some of their teams of past. Despite the new offense struggling to just 20 points per game, good enough for 116th nationally, they’ve stayed committed to the new philosophy.

A major reason for the lack of success is the rate at which Army has coughed up the ball. They’ve put the ball on the ground 19 times this year, losing 10 of those fumbles. It’s not been any better throwing the ball either, tossing 10 interceptions, throwing a pick every 13 pass attempts. This has the West Point offense averaging 2.5 turnovers per game.

Air Force has an opportunistic defense, don’t be deceived by the fact they have only forced nine turnovers. The Falcon offense limits opponents’ possessions, so there are less opportunities for takeaways. Whether it’s Bryson Dailey or the Freshman, Champ Harris at quarterback for Army, opportunities should be there to capitalize and steal a possession or two for the Air Force.

On top of taking advantage of an offense that has shown a propensity to be loose with the ball, Air Force needs to rack up steady gains on an underwhelming defensive line. The Black Knights are surrendering almost 200 yards per game (185.6) on the ground. One of the ways you disrupt the Falcon offense is by getting tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Something Army simply has not shown an ability to do.

Their starting trio of Frey, Lewis and Hill have garnered just 3.5 tackles for loss between them. This is something the Diesels should be able to exploit and get blockers on the linebackers creating opportunities for chunk yardage inside. When Air Force is chewing up yards with Emmanuel Michel and Owen Burk between the tackles, it spells certain doom for the opposition.

I would expect Defensive Coordinator Nate Woody to take a similar approach against the Falcons as Navy did, by loading up the box to try and take away the inside game. So to get that inside game going, an effective run game to the outside paired with some timely passes may be needed to soften things up. This is a medley that Air Force has counted on all year to complement one another, with much success.

It doesn’t matter how they get to it though, that inside run is what’s proven to be the dagger to many proverbial hearts. Army will meet the same fate if yards are had between those big Diesel tires.

Both teams defenses always seem to show up for this game. I wouldn’t expect any different this year. But the Army offense has been putting their defense in unenviable positions a lot this year, and there is a chance we’ll see four freshman featured on that unit when they play Saturday. That is not a recipe for success against Brian Knorr’s group.

The disparity in the two offenses is what will really make the difference on the scoreboard. Eventually Air Force is going to find a way to generate points, I’m not sure they same can be said for Army. Especially when you consider the personnel in the Falcons defensive unit; Alec Mock, Trey Taylor and Bo Richter all (should be) legitimately considered for MWC Defensive Player of the Year honors.

The Trophy case is getting crowded in Colorado Springs, Air Force sings second.

Air Force 17 – 6 Army

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Air Force Football: The Falcons Drop the Colorado State 30-13

Air Force Football: The Falcons Drop the Colorado State 30-13 The Falcons Run Their Win Streak to 7 against the Rams Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire If you were to describe the Colorado State – Air Force game in one word, it should be ‘snowball’. …

Air Force Football: The Falcons Drop the Colorado State 30-13

The Falcons Run Their Win Streak to 7 against the Rams

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

If you were to describe the Colorado State – Air Force game in one word, it should be ‘snowball’. Yes, there was precipitation, and the student section for CSU you had a little too much fun with it, lobbing snowballs on the field and at the Air Force bench, causing a 15-yard penalty at one point.

But ‘snowball’ is a microcosm of what happened to the Rams. Air Force just kept gaining momentum offensively and defensively as the game wore on. Ultimately, the defense kept CSU completely in check the entire second half. Outside of a 13 point second half counter-punch by CSU, Jay Norvell’s squad really had no answers. The result was a clear establishment of the class of the state of Colorado.

Braden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for nearly 300 yards, but this is why you can’t rely on a stat line to tell the story. The game went to halftime tied, but was one sided affair as the Falcons rushing attack got churning and their defense sheered the sheep. Air Force keeps the Ram-Falcon Trophy for the seventh year in a row, winning 30-13 in Fort Collins.

Next up for Air Force is Army. This is their biggest game of the season as they will play at Mile High Field in Denver for the right to retain the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

Colorado State has a rivalry match of their own, as they head North to take on Wyoming in Laramie.

 

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Air Force at Colorado State: How the Falcons can defeat the Rams

Air Force at Colorado State: How the Falcons can defeat the Rams The Battle for the Ram-Falcon Trophy Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force win their 7th straight against the CSU? WEEK 9: Air Force Falcons 7-0 (4-0) vs. Colorado State Rams …

Air Force at Colorado State: How the Falcons can defeat the Rams

The Battle for the Ram-Falcon Trophy

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force win their 7th straight against the CSU?

WEEK 9: Air Force Falcons 7-0 (4-0) vs. Colorado State Rams 3-4 (1-2)

WHEN: Saturday, October 28th — 5 P.M. MT/ 4 P.M. PT

WHERE: Canvas Stadium (Fort Collins, CO)

WEATHER: Snow in the evening will give way to lingering snow showers overnight. Low 19F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Brandon Baylor (sidelines)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 38-21-1

WEBSITES: CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): CSU | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 17.3

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 18.6

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has an 72.25% chance to win (27.17-18.31)

Don’t blink, somehow we are already at week 9 of the college football season. Wedged in between games against Air Force’s primary rivals Army and Navy, is a “trap game” versus the CSU Rams.

The Falcons have been rolling through the season like a finely tuned F-22 Raptor. The most recent victim enroute to Air Force’s 7-0 start was their rival brethren of the sea. If you look at the score, nothing about their win over Navy is really eye popping. If you watched the game, your eyes would affirm what the story of this season has been telling you; The Falcons have an elite defense, completely suffocating the Mids. Navy wouldn’t have recorded a score, or even much more than 50 yards of offense were it not for Air Force playing an overtly conservative final drive to wind down the game. And news flash; their offense is not one dimensional.

Zac Larrier was a masterful conductor of the offense in a game that by most accounts, he was not expected to play. He was surgical throwing the ball completing 4/5 passes for 151 yards, which included a 94 yards touchdown pass to Dane Kinamon. He’s yet to throw an interception on the season. All of this couched with the obligatory nod to the fact he is the Mountain West Track champion. Larrier is playing his position at a level equal to or above anyone else in the MWC, period.

Awaiting the Bolts in Fort Collins is a more than capable Colorado State Rams team. Understanding the term capable is in no way a promissory note for victory. CSU has been very up and down this year, and in typical Jekyll and Hyde fashion, it’s going to be a matter of which variety of the Ram’s team shows up Saturday that will dictate how much of a threat they are to hand Air Force their first L of the season.

Jay Norvell and Matt Mumme seem to have settled on their quarterback now, which is essential in their pass heavy approach. Braden Fowler-Nicolosi has gotten a lot of attention for the statistics he’s posted in his time as a starter. And a major factor in those numbers would be the plethora of weapons he has to throw to. There are Bonafide Biletnikoff and Mackey award candidates on that CSU offense in Dallin Holker and Tory Horton. The production doesn’t stop there though, they have great depth in their pass catchers.

Air Force have not faced the kind of passing attack like they will this week. However, weather doesn’t look like it will be endearing to a pass heavy approach. And conversely, CSU has not faced a team like Air Force on either side of the ball. That’s not to inflate the greatness of the Falcons, it’s more of a reference to their unorthodox offense, and unprecedentedly stifling defense.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN TOPPLE THE RAMS

The talent on the CSU offense is well documented. This isn’t the first time they have featured tandems of wide receiver and tight end quality that rival anyone nationally. It’s almost what we have come to expect from the Rams. What we haven’t come to expect is wins as a result of the talent. One of the major reasons they’ve struggled to peak above mediocrity is their defense.

One of the worst defenses in the nation, the Rams are as bad as anyone at defending the pass, and their run defense is nothing to write home about. Air Force is not going to be met with the same resistance to the run as they did last week, in particular allowing their fullbacks to be the catalyst to their offense. CSU ranks 91st in run defense, surrendering 160 yards per game on the ground. Take a look at their schedule, there aren’t many elite rushing attacks on that schedule. Air Force must impose their will, leaning on the country’s number one rushing attack to lead the way.

If the stable of fullbacks don’t have a big game on the ground, it probably means John Lee Eldridge has some eye popping yards per carry numbers getting the ball on the edge. It is also likely that the 131st pass defense is taken advantage of by Larrier and crew while they load the box to try and contend the run.

Historically, even when Air Force has had a good defense, their achilles heel has been the secondary exposed by an effective pass game to open things up. It seems contrary to make that remark considering they rank 4th nationally at defending the pass, but their dominance at time of possession helps skew that statistic. This could be one of those games that the numbers don’t tell the story. Success defending the pass is going to be a group effort, getting after the quarterback and communicating at the second and third level. The experience of an Alec Mock and Trey Taylor will key in that regard.

The last area of focus is going to lean in on the Falcons strength, which is in the trenches. CSU has done a great job of getting after the quarterback, averaging three sacks per game. They have also protected the quarterback very well, especially when you consider how often they throw the ball.

The Air Force defensive front has line wreckers in Bo Richter and Peyton Zdroik. They need to be able to generate pressure on Saturday so Nicolosi isn’t comfortable working through his reads to these talented receivers. Meanwhile, the ‘Diesels’ up front for the Falcons need to keep Mohammed Kamara and company out of their backfield. Expect a blocking scheme that accounts for the Rams strength to be deployed to allow for steady gains in the snow.

It’s really interesting looking at the how the Rams have fared defensively, despite four of the better defensive players in all of the conference. This lends a lot of credence to the reality that teams that function as a unit are often far more formidable than one that might have highly talented individuals but lack communication or are more significantly flawed at other positions. Air Force feasts on a defense that is not on top of its’ game communicating.

You are in for a treat especially if you enjoy good secondary play as four of the best safeties in the conference will be featured in Jack Howell, Henry Blackburn, Trey Taylor and Jayden Goodwin. Unfortunately for CSU fans, I don’t see this game setting up to end their losing streak to Air Force at six. Weather could be a factor for both teams, but precision and execution will be the biggest factor. And no one has proven better than Troy Calhoun’s squad at that thus far.

Air Force 28 – Colorado State 20

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Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy

Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy The Battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Starts in Annapolis Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force win their 4th straight against the Midshipmen? WEEK 8: Air Force Falcons 6-0 …

Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy

The Battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Starts in Annapolis

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force win their 4th straight against the Midshipmen?

WEEK 8: Air Force Falcons 6-0 (4-0) vs. Navy Midshipmen 3-3 (2-2)

WHEN: Saturday, October 21st — 10:00 A.M. MT/ 9:00 A.M. PT

WHERE: Navy-Marine Corp Stadium (Annapolis, MD)

WEATHER: Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 63F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Amanda Guerra (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 33-22

WEBSITES: NavySports.com, the official Wyoming athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Navy | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 17.6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 17

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has an 80.67% chance to win (26.18-13.2)

The biggest game of the Air Force season is being played in Annapolis this Saturday. Coincidentally, it’s also the biggest game of the year for Navy as well. Yes, by Sunday, the biggest game of the year for one of these two teams will have changed and involve that Military Academy in New York, but that game has little relevance until Air Force plays Navy.

This is where the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy begins!

Navy has looked underwhelming more times than not, with an up and down 3-3 start to the year. By some though, three wins at this point in the season may be a tic above expectation. Despite a revolving door of quarterbacks, and generally inconsistent output from their offense, the Mids are still in bowl contention, as well as vying for the all important CiC Trophy.

Navy will likely be relying on a very experienced Senior Tai Lavatai at quarterback on Saturday. He’s been the on and off again starter for what seems the last three seasons. But this is the same guy that last beat Army for Navy, so he’s no stranger to big games. Expect to see Braxton Woodson, the Freshman direct enrollee to see some playing time as well.

The quarterback situation at Air Force got very interesting late in their thrilling win over Wyoming last week. Jensen Jones entered the game when Zac Larrier went down with a knee injury. The offense stumbled at first with the change under center fumbling twice, but settled after under Jones control, masterfully executing an option pitch to the boundary that John Lee Eldridge II took to the house from 70 yards out. Jones also put the game on ice with their last possession, getting tough yards inside converting a first down to put the game on ice.

As if this game needed any additional juice, Navy is going to be honoring All-Time great Roger Staubach with a ceremony at the game. If the Falcons want Staubach’s jersey number adorning the field to be the only cause for celebration for the Mids, they had better come prepared for four quarters of football. Otherwise, Air Force’s stint being ranked, along with their possession of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy may be abbreviated.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN SINK THE MIDS

There is likely to be precipitation at some point during Saturday’s game. Ball security is always critical when you run some version of a time consuming option offense. I know many at Navy contend they have changed from the conventional triple option offense, but ultimately both of these teams have very similar philosophies. They run a lot, and they run very well.

Which brings up the biggest threat that the Falcons need to take inventory of, Alec Tecza. The Navy fullback is in a similar mold to Brad Roberts, minus a career suggesting he’s an all-time great at the program. Yet. Tecza is just a sophomore and has been a game changer with the ball in his hands.

Averaging over 230 yards per game on the ground, 5th best nationally, Navy has a lot of talent in their backfield. The fullbacks are an absolute strength with Daba Fofana and Tecza. The Air Force front seven have got to limit what the Mids backs are able to do on early downs especially.

Another area of the game to pay close attention to is turnovers. In games like this, the impact of a turnover seems to be magnified. Despite some very lopsided losses, Navy is one of the best at creating turnovers, forcing 12 of them. That’s twice as many as Air Force on the season. Neither team has thrown an interception this year, it will be interesting to see how many times the Falcons put the ball in the air with Jones getting his first start. The Falcons need a clean game in Annapolis.

I suspect the biggest deciding factor in this game is going to come through sustainability. The ability to keep drives alive, even if to flip field position, and conversely the ability to get off of the field. Both of these teams feature strong third down defenses. But where Air Force really stands out among the competition is in their ability to convert third downs. They are the best in the country, converting almost 60% of their third downs.

That defensive unit of Brian Knorr’s, not Newberry, is one of the best in the country. They aren’t going to make it easy for Navy to find daylight, a rhythm, conversions or points.

Even if the Navy run defense which allows double (148 yards per game) what the Falcons surrender on the ground, I don’t see it being sustainable. Eventually the dam is going to break from fatigue, as Air Force has shown a much better ability to maintain drives offensively and end them defensively. A slow suffocation.

I realize much of this relies on a quarterback making their first start on a critical stage. But all those diesels in front of Jensen Jones have experience to spare, and the supporting cast in the backfield is as dynamic and deep as any. Ask Wyoming if Jensen Jones can make a play to put you out.

And even if the game does come down to special teams, thankfully for Air Force, they have a dynamic kicker in Mathew Dapore who is perfect on the year.

Air Force Sings Second.

Air Force 20 – Navy 15

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Air Force vs. Wyoming: How the Falcons can win

Air Force vs. Wyoming: How the Falcons can win Can Air Force Remain the Lone Unbeaten in the Mountain West? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire It’s Double Chin Strap Time as the Pokes Invade Colorado Springs WEEK 7: Air Force Falcons 5-0 (3-0) vs. …

Air Force vs. Wyoming: How the Falcons can win

Can Air Force Remain the Lone Unbeaten in the Mountain West?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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It’s Double Chin Strap Time as the Pokes Invade Colorado Springs

WEEK 7: Air Force Falcons 5-0 (3-0) vs. Wyoming Cowboys 5-1 (2-0)

WHEN: Saturday, October 14th — 5:00 P.M. MT/ 4:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Sunny. High around 55F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Justin Walters (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 30-27-3

WEBSITES: GoWYO.com, the official Wyoming athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Wyoming | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 10.9

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 13.8

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 93.61% Win Probability (31.3-11.45)

For the second week in a row, the Wyoming Cowboys find themselves battling another Mountain West contender. Coming off of an impressive win over Fresno State, Wyoming packs their bags, leaving the comforts of Laradise as they head South to Colorado Springs.

The Pokes are usually a difficult draw for Air Force, defeating Troy Calhoun’s squad in Laramie last year. So they will not be lacking for confidence coming to Falcon Stadium on Saturday, fresh off of a very impressive performance. Typically, a physical team that likes to run the ball, paired with good defense (sound like another team you know?), the Pokes got a boost from their quarterback, Andrew Peasley who had a very good game.

Peasley is no stranger to Air Force, as he’s had some of his best performances against the Falcons. Brian Knorr’s defensive unit could have their hands full with the Mountain West’s reigning offensive player of the week. If they aren’t able to do a better job than the prior two years, Air Force may be handed their first conference loss of the season by Andrew Peasley for the third season in a row.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN DEFEAT THE COWBOYS

It wasn’t just that Wyoming beat the defending conference champs last week, but how they did so that should have the attention of Air Force, and the rest of the Mountain West. Outside of an uncharacteristic, missed 47 yard field goal from their Lou Groza Award Watchlist kicker, John Hoyland, the Pokes were dominant in all aspects of the game.

To avoid the same fate as Fresno State, the Falcons can’t let Wyoming’s passing game catch them off guard early. Andrew Peasley tossed three touchdowns in the first half last week. In similar fashion, he took advantage of generous cushions offered by the Air Force secondary in last year’s game. As one of the nation’s best defenses, their pass defense being 4th best in the country, the Falcons have to play like it early.

Craig Bohl wants his team to impose their will by running the ball. And they are very good at it, racking up over 170 yards per game on the ground. But it’s when the passing game is going that the Cowboys are really dangerous, because the honesty with which the defense has to dignify the pass attack leaves them vulnerable to an already imposing rushing attack. It’s not that dissimilar from Air Force’s approach.

There is going to be a lot of pressure on C.J. Boyd at spur and the standout safeties, Trey Taylor and Jayden Goodwin to consistently defend the run and the pass. Thankfully, this is a collective that has been up to the task week in and week out.

Now to the offense. Air Force has been as good as anyone in the country coming away with points every time they have the ball. They will be facing the best defensive front this week though, that is probably the best they’ll play all season. The Wyoming defensive line is insanely deep and talented. And it doesn’t get any easier when you get to their linebackers, with two of the best in the conference in Easton Gibbs and Shae Suiaunoa.

This unit was the leading cause of what was largely an ineffective Air Force offense last year. They can’t let that be the narrative in 2023. Quarterback Zac Larrier is a different kind of problem with his speed. They are going to be relying on his legs and timely gashes through the air to keep drives alive. One of the nation’s best on a per carry average, John Lee Eldridge II is going to have to continue with his impressive numbers. With what has become a relentless and multiple offense, it should afford these playmakers opportunities to make a difference in situations that simply weren’t there last year.

Last and certainly not least, they cannot turn the ball over. They’ve done a great job taking care of the rock the last few weeks and it will be critical that continues this week. That includes recovered fumbles because getting behind the sticks because of a poor pitch or penetration can be a drive ender.

My good friend and writer for the Mountain West Connection Nittany Falcon said something that stuck with me as we were discussing this game. Wyoming isn’t doing anything that impressive. They gave up a lot of points to New Mexico, looked underwhelming against Portland and their win against Appalachian State looks less and less impressive each week.

I think my friend and Falcon contributor is right. There is matching mediocrity to the moments of brilliance for Wyoming. But despite that, I simply cannot see how Air Force is a two-score favorite. It was a very similar story last year, and we’ve documented ad nauseam here. Maybe I respect that defensive front too much, but I see this as a closely contested affair to the very end. The Air Force offense is better though, their defense is better, and they are going to prove that their (lack of) strength of schedule is an overblown narrative.

Air Force 24 – Wyoming 20

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Air Force vs. San Diego State: Why The Falcons Will Win

Air Force vs. San Diego State: Why The Falcons Will Win The Falcons will try and build another winning streak against the Aztecs Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Air Force Tries To Win Their 10th Straight WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 4-0 (2-0) vs. San …

Air Force vs. San Diego State: Why The Falcons Will Win

The Falcons will try and build another winning streak against the Aztecs

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Air Force Tries To Win Their 10th Straight

WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 4-0 (2-0) vs. San Diego State Aztecs 2-3 (0-1)

WHEN: Friday, September 22nd — 8:30 P.M. MT/ 7:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies. Low near 50F. S winds shifting to NW at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Tiffany Blackmon (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 20-18

WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Diego State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 16.6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 12.5

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 93.61% Win Probability (31.3-11.45)

The Aztecs are a difficult team to assess this year.  They have not gotten off to a great start, dropping their last three games as competition has gotten more difficult facing UCLA, Oregon State and Boise State. They may not have an FBS victory yet, had Kurtis Rourke of the Ohio Bobcats not gotten injured very early in the season opener, which saw his backup throw three picks in a narrow San Diego State victory.

In typical fashion, Brady Hoke’s team is led by a defensive unit featuring a ball hawking secondary. They lead the conference in interceptions and turnovers caused, both of which categories they are top 10 nationally. The defense is complimented by good special teams play as well. This combination alone gives the Aztecs a fighting chance each week.

Against an Air Force team that has seemingly found their stride on offense, San Diego State is going to need a little more offensive output. The Falcons have scored 39 points or more in three of their four games this year. Pair that with a defense that has been very stingy, and the Aztecs are going to need to be very opportunistic forcing turnovers and turning them into points. Protecting the ball is also going to be critical for a team that’s turned it over 10 times already this season.

HERE’S HOW THE FALCONS CAN BEAT THE AZTECS

Air Force finally got back in the win column versus San Diego State last year for the first time since 2009. It’s been a really competitive series between these two schools, seeing long win streaks from both sides. In recent history though, the Aztecs have had the upper hand, and done so with outstanding defensive play.

Things look to be a little different in 2023. It’s hard to believe but were now looking at an Aztec team that is struggling to stop the run, surrendering 164 yards per game, ranking them 100th nationally. For their secondary to have an impact, the defense is going to need to stop Air Force’s run game, forcing them to throw a lot more than they’ve showed an inclination or need this year. That is very unlikely to happen.

The Falcons feature the nations top rushing attack as usual. And it’s an offense that appears to be getting better each game. While they don’t throw often, Zac Larrier is leading the country in pass efficiency and yards per completion. Not that I would suggest airing the ball out versus Saturday’s opponent, but it’s worth recognizing an effective passing game is there.

I think San Diego State is still a team to be respected, their record is a little misleading when you look at who they’ve played. But the relentless stable of carriers in the Air Force backfield is going to wear out an already suspect run defense. Once the Aztecs get behind, an opportunistic Falcon defense should be able to capitalize on their generosity, forcing critical turnovers.

This is a proud team coming to Colorado Springs, but they are going to be met by a team that’s not let injuries or roster transition slow them down. Air Force leads the Mountain West in rushing offense, scoring defense, passing defense, rushing defense, third down offense, third down defense, red zone defense and time of possession. Stats alone don’t win football games, but these are categories that reflect a physical, discipline football team.

The schedule isn’t getting any easier for the Aztecs in week 5. The Falcons are starting a new win streak in the series.

Air Force 27 – San Diego State 13

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Air Force at San Jose State: Why The Falcons Will Win

Air Force at San Jose State: Why The Falcons Will Win The Falcons and Spartans Face-Off for the 7th Time Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force Start 2-0 in Conference Play? WEEK 4: Air Force Falcons 3-0 (1-0) vs. San Jose State Spartans 1-3 …

Air Force at San Jose State: Why The Falcons Will Win

The Falcons and Spartans Face-Off for the 7th Time

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force Start 2-0 in Conference Play?

WEEK 4: Air Force Falcons 3-0 (1-0) vs. San Jose State Spartans 1-3 (0-0)

WHEN: Friday, September 22nd — 8:30 P.M. MT/ 7:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: CEFCU Stadium (San Jose, CA)

WEATHER: A few clouds from time to time. Low near 55F. NNW winds shifting to SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: FS1 (Dan Hellie, Petros Papadakis)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 4-2

WEBSITES: SJSUAthletics.com, the official San Jose State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Jose State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 9

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 11.3

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 62.95% Win Probability (27.64-22.68)

The fourth week of the college football season features a pretty intriguing matchup in the Mountain West. Air Force will play San Jose State for the first time since 2020. For a quick history lesson, the Spartans defeated the Falcons on their way to being crown Mountain West Conference Champions that year.

They haven’t replicated that level of success since, but Brent Brennan’s squad could be a contender again this year. While the season has gotten off to a rocky start for San Jose State going 1-3, with the losses coming to USC, Oregon State and Toledo; all of whom are expected to compete for championships in their respective conferences.

A 59-3 victory over lesser FCS competition in Cal Poly is still a reminder that this team can be good. Behind one of the most experienced signal callers in all of college football, Chevon Cordiero, the Spartans offense can cause problems for a defense.

So don’t get fooled by the some of the aggregate statistics from the San Jose State Spartans to date. It’s likely more a product of who they have played thus far. They are replacing some studs along that defensive front and weren’t afforded a slow acclimation to competition.

Very few Conference victories come easy. Don’t expect them to roll out the red carpet at CEFCU Stadium on Friday.

HERE’S HOW THE FALCONS CAN CONQUER THE SPARTANS

Last year saw Air Force feature one of the Academy’s most dominant defenses. They were statistically the best in the nation in multiple categories. Coach Knorr’s group has continued to carry that play into the 2023 season, despite significant injury losses, they are still one of the country’s best defensive units.

That same defense is going to have to try and keep a dynamic quarterback in check if they want to win this game. Bo Richter’s play on the edge has been outstanding for the Flacons, and P.J. Ramsey along the defensive line has been in the opposing backfield as much as anyone. These two should play  key roles in limiting Cordiero’s damage. He’s a creative playmaker that can keep plays alive and pick up first downs with his mobility. Ramsey and Richter have proven to be game wreckers early on this year and should limit the Spartans ability to make big plays.

San Jose State has gotten somewhat surprising production out of their running backs this season, featuring two guys averaging better than five yards per carry and catch out of the backfield in Quali Conley and Kairee Robinson. Conley in particular averages almost seven yards per carry (6.7) on the season. Continued brilliant play from Alec Mock can help neutralize a lot of their impact. His partner in the linebacking corp, Jonathan Youngblood is also playing at a high level, so the front seven for Air Force has proven formidable.

There is no lack of content if you want to focus on the Air Force defense. What can make the Falcons a real problem for opponents is their offense  matching the play of their defense. The two units perfectly complement one another, with a greedy, time-consuming offense that limits possessions for the other team. And a stingy defense that isn’t giving up much with those limited possessions. Last week saw total domination of a team that seemingly has Air Force’s number recently, and a major reason why is the play of the offense.

The Falcons are getting very multiple running the ball, starting with a stable of fullbacks that are starting wear teams out in Owen Burk, Dylan Carson and Emanuel Michel. Big play potential is being provided by John Lee Eldridge II, earning an insane 8.9 yards per carry on the season.

A relentless rushing attack from Air Force with a host of ball carriers looks to be too much for a defense that is surrendering 170 yards per game on the ground. I would expect improvement on both sides of the ball from San Jose State, but even a decent showing from the defense would likely look like 24 points or better from the Falcons. This is important to note because the Air Force defense is not going to afford yards, much less points very easily. If you don’t know, take a look back at how long it’s been since the Falcons have surrendered 24 points to an opponent, it’s been a while.

Look for Richter, Taylor, Mock and crew to make things difficult for a Spartans team that really needs to start stringing wins together. Short of a disaster affair of turnovers by the Falcons, I’d expect the game to be close until the end as Air Force simply wears down San Jose State.

Air Force 28 – San Jose State 20

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Air Force Football: The Falcons Down Utah State 39-21

Air Force Football: The Falcons Down Utah State 39-21 The Falcons Improve to 3-0 on the Season Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Something about the Blake Anderson era Aggies seemed to have the Falcons snakebitten in the previous two years. Well, …

Air Force Football: The Falcons Down Utah State 39-21

The Falcons Improve to 3-0 on the Season

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Something about the Blake Anderson era Aggies seemed to have the Falcons snakebitten in the previous two years. Well, that all changed in a big way on Friday Night’s Mountain West Conference opener. This game was all but over at halftime, as Air Force soared to a 32-7 lead.

Maybe lessons were learned from the past, maybe the Aggies don’t have the same firepower or perhaps Air Force still has one of the nations elite defensive units? Elements of truth exist in each of those considers. The defensive unit smothered Utah State, forcing two early turnovers, five sacks and ushering a quarterback change from Cooper Legas to Freshman, McCae Hillstead.

Hillstead flashed at moments throughout the game, but much of that came at a time where the game was out of reach. Were it not for a lot of uncharacteristic drive extending penalties, Utah State may not of scored a point in this game. This was the complete and dominant Conference performance we have not seen levied on their rivals from Logan in three years.

After a lackluster output last week, I think Falcon fans can breath a bit easier when it comes to the offense. Pair that with a defense that has been lights out, let the Conference Contender hype train speed towards Colorado Springs.

Air Force travels to San Jose, to take on the Spartans next week in another Friday night matchup. The Aggies will try to get back into the win column back at home, against James Madison on Saturday.

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Air Force vs. Utah State: Why the Falcons will win

Air Force vs. Utah State: Why the Falcons will win Conference Play Kick’s Off at Falcon Stadium on Friday Night Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can the Falcons finally get a win over the Blake Anderson era Aggies? WEEK 3: Air Force Falcons 2-0 …

Air Force vs. Utah State: Why the Falcons will win

 

Conference Play Kick’s Off at Falcon Stadium on Friday Night

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can the Falcons finally get a win over the Blake Anderson era Aggies?

WEEK 3: Air Force Falcons 2-0 (0-0) vs. Utah State Aggies 1-1 (0-0)

WHEN: Friday, September 15th — 6:00 P.M. MT/ 5:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: A few clouds from time to time. Low 46F. WSW winds shifting to NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network CBSSN: Alex Del Barrio, Robert Turbin and Emily Proud

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 6-5

WEBSITES: UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Utah State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 13.6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 12.3

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 69.73% (25-17.26)

https://x.com/AF_Football/status/1701278094991266095?s=20

Will this be the year that Air Force hands Blake Anderson his first loss to the Falcons? The series between these schools has been pretty even, with only a slight edge going to the Falcons winning six of 11 matchups. But the past two years, Utah State has had their number under Blake Anderson.

Last season, Air Force was a two score favorite to beat the Aggies, but the trio of Cooper Legas, Calvin Tyler, and Brian Cobbs proved to be too much for what wound up being a 10 win Falcon team.  While Tyler and Cobbs are no longer there, Legas has Terrell Vaughn and Rashul Faison making up a formidable 2023 edition.

Like last year, the Air Force defense looks dominant. Mind you, they lost to the Aggies while surrendering 34 points last year, which saw the Falcons end the season with the top ranked defense in the country. That defense has looked impressive again, but it’s hard to really know when you consider the anemic offenses they have faced.

Offensively, it’s difficult to know just how good they are as they piled up points on an underwhelming FCS opponent to start the season, and then struggled a bit versus what may wind up being a very good Sam Houston defensive group. There is still much to learn yet about the Falcons offense.

Utah State had a solid showing in their season opener against a ranked Iowa team, albeit in a losing effort. After mustering just 14 points against the Hawkeyes, they bounced back scoring nearly 80 points last week versus FCS competition, Idaho State. Regardless of the competition, the Aggies 250 yards rushing per game should have the Falcons attention.

I’m not sure how much these results can be used to conclude a winner in this Friday’s Mountain West Conference opener, but there are plenty of subplots with which to project why either team may be expected to win this bout.

HERE’S WHY AIR FORCE WILL WIN AGAINST THE AGGIES

Unlike their first two games, which saw the Falcons fumble the ball a whopping six times, they should have a considerable focus on ball security this Friday. You would think that’s a given in an program that is obsessed with details, but they have been fortunate to only lose two of those half dozen fumbles. Turnovers have played a significant role in their losses to Utah State the previous two meetings, they would do very well to avoid them in 2023.

The fumbling may also prove an opportunity for others to contribute. Considering fumbles likely led to one of the underclassmen ball carriers to see more carries. Don’t be surprised if Dylan Carson sees a significant increase in carries this week at fullback. He’s got quick feet and wearing number 20 can only mean good things when you’re a Falcon ball carrier.

After the previous encounter, Air Force’s defense should be prepared for Cooper Legas ability to do damage on the ground, not just as a passer. He chipped in 76 yards and a tudd carrying the rock, which was a contributing factor to the Falcons inability to stop the Aggie offense. The Air Force defense is still very good, and a lot of players were on that field last year will remember what happened. Expect them to play at a very high level this time around.

Confidence in the defensive unit holding up their part is more than reasonable. The offense clearly leave a few more question marks. The offensive line is the strength of the offense, executing the multiple run attack at a high level will be a must this week. There is plenty of talent on this offense with Larrier, Eldridge III and crew, and they have yet to unleash Dane Kinamon at all this season. Perhaps this is the week it happens. Kinamon can be an absolute game changer.

I’ll try and capture the essence of an Air Force victory in a not-so-complex recipe. Win the turnover battle, allow Utah State to continue averaging 75 penalty yards per game, feature three 75 yard ball carriers, don’t allow a surprise Aggie impact performer (I’m talking about former Falcon Micah Davis here), continued front seven dominance, and win in the redzone on both sides of the ball.

If Troy Calhoun’s bunch can deliver on those key areas, the Falcon’s should be able to start the year 1-0 in conference play. It will not be easy, but it’s time to get back on the winning end of these games with the Aggies.

Air Force 27 – Utah State 24

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Air Force Football: The Falcons Defeat Sam Houston 13-3

Air Force Football: The Falcons Defeat Sam Houston 13-3 The Falcons Win at NRG Stadium To Go 2-0 Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Air Force won a close defensive battle against the Sam Houston Bearkats on Saturday. The Falcons entered the 4th …

Air Force Football: The Falcons Defeat Sam Houston 13-3

The Falcons Win at NRG Stadium To Go 2-0

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Air Force won a close defensive battle against the Sam Houston Bearkats on Saturday. The Falcons entered the 4th quarter tied at three, before pulling away late in the game.

Both defenses played well all game, but it was the Air Force bunch that was able to really suffocate the opposition. While the Bearkats scored their first points in FBS competition, they are going to have to wait for their first touchdown or victory.

Fumbles continue to be a concerning theme for the Falcons, as they put the ball on the ground three more times, which makes six times already in the young season. They have only lost a pair of those fumbles, but it is becoming a concerning pattern.

The offense is going to have to chip in more points if they want to beat Utah State. They have yet to beat a Coach Blake Anderson coached Aggies team, but they’ll hope to reverse those fortunes Friday’s Conference opener.

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