Air Force vs. San Diego State: Why The Falcons Will Win

Air Force vs. San Diego State: Why The Falcons Will Win The Falcons will try and build another winning streak against the Aztecs Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Air Force Tries To Win Their 10th Straight WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 4-0 (2-0) vs. San …

Air Force vs. San Diego State: Why The Falcons Will Win

The Falcons will try and build another winning streak against the Aztecs

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Air Force Tries To Win Their 10th Straight

WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 4-0 (2-0) vs. San Diego State Aztecs 2-3 (0-1)

WHEN: Friday, September 22nd — 8:30 P.M. MT/ 7:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies. Low near 50F. S winds shifting to NW at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Tiffany Blackmon (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 20-18

WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Diego State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 16.6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 12.5

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 93.61% Win Probability (31.3-11.45)

The Aztecs are a difficult team to assess this year.  They have not gotten off to a great start, dropping their last three games as competition has gotten more difficult facing UCLA, Oregon State and Boise State. They may not have an FBS victory yet, had Kurtis Rourke of the Ohio Bobcats not gotten injured very early in the season opener, which saw his backup throw three picks in a narrow San Diego State victory.

In typical fashion, Brady Hoke’s team is led by a defensive unit featuring a ball hawking secondary. They lead the conference in interceptions and turnovers caused, both of which categories they are top 10 nationally. The defense is complimented by good special teams play as well. This combination alone gives the Aztecs a fighting chance each week.

Against an Air Force team that has seemingly found their stride on offense, San Diego State is going to need a little more offensive output. The Falcons have scored 39 points or more in three of their four games this year. Pair that with a defense that has been very stingy, and the Aztecs are going to need to be very opportunistic forcing turnovers and turning them into points. Protecting the ball is also going to be critical for a team that’s turned it over 10 times already this season.

HERE’S HOW THE FALCONS CAN BEAT THE AZTECS

Air Force finally got back in the win column versus San Diego State last year for the first time since 2009. It’s been a really competitive series between these two schools, seeing long win streaks from both sides. In recent history though, the Aztecs have had the upper hand, and done so with outstanding defensive play.

Things look to be a little different in 2023. It’s hard to believe but were now looking at an Aztec team that is struggling to stop the run, surrendering 164 yards per game, ranking them 100th nationally. For their secondary to have an impact, the defense is going to need to stop Air Force’s run game, forcing them to throw a lot more than they’ve showed an inclination or need this year. That is very unlikely to happen.

The Falcons feature the nations top rushing attack as usual. And it’s an offense that appears to be getting better each game. While they don’t throw often, Zac Larrier is leading the country in pass efficiency and yards per completion. Not that I would suggest airing the ball out versus Saturday’s opponent, but it’s worth recognizing an effective passing game is there.

I think San Diego State is still a team to be respected, their record is a little misleading when you look at who they’ve played. But the relentless stable of carriers in the Air Force backfield is going to wear out an already suspect run defense. Once the Aztecs get behind, an opportunistic Falcon defense should be able to capitalize on their generosity, forcing critical turnovers.

This is a proud team coming to Colorado Springs, but they are going to be met by a team that’s not let injuries or roster transition slow them down. Air Force leads the Mountain West in rushing offense, scoring defense, passing defense, rushing defense, third down offense, third down defense, red zone defense and time of possession. Stats alone don’t win football games, but these are categories that reflect a physical, discipline football team.

The schedule isn’t getting any easier for the Aztecs in week 5. The Falcons are starting a new win streak in the series.

Air Force 27 – San Diego State 13

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