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A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 5 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 5.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The smartest wagers to make for NFL Week 5 action.
The oddsmakers are starting the see the separation between the good teams and the bad teams of 2022, and it is being reflected in the point spreads.
Of the 16 games on the Week 5 slate – the last week that all teams are on equal footing with bye weeks coming – seven of them have one team favored by 6.5 points or more. Of those, four are division games where both teams have an innate familiarity with each other.
The question bettors have to ask themselves is whether or not the favorites are giving away enough points or giving away too many?
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Thursday night games are always a mixed bag. You never know if the short week is going to result on offenses controlling the defenses or a low-scoring slugfest between teams with lingering injuries from the previous week. The Over/Under seems low (42.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). However, the Broncos have gone over this point once, and the Colts haven’t hit that number yet. Take the Under (-115).
The Packers don’t have great receivers, and the Giants have highly paid receivers doing nothing. The Packers are a prohibitive “home” favorite (8.5 points at -112 Giants, -108 Packers) in London. I’m not a big fan of laying a ton of points, but I just don’t think the Giants will muster 17 points. At that number, Green Bay should score enough to cover. Take the Packers and lay 8.5 points (-108).
The Vikings are a solid home favorite (6.5 points at +100 Bears, -125 Vikings). Minnesota struggled against Chicago prior to last year – when they swept the Bears. Minnesota has struggled to win games but found ways. The Bears can’t generate the offense required to run with Minnesota in their house. Take the Vikings and lay the 6.5 points (-125).
I didn’t give up on the Titans when they started 0-2 and didn’t buy in when Carson Wentz started the season on fire. Both teams have come back. Tennessee is a modest favorite (2.5 points at -115 Titans, -105 Commanders). Washington is the type of team that allows an opponent to dictate pace, and Derrick Henry is a tough bone to chew. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-115).
I’m actually leaning on the Lions winning this game as a road underdog, which is why the point spread is intriguing (3.5 points at -125 Lions, +100 Patriots). Those making the line don’t have confidence in a Patriots team with two dinged QBs – and neither do I. Take the Lions and 3.5 points (-125).
The Bills are massive favorites and a beating of epic proportions is being presented. However, the Over/Under (46.5 points at -110 for both) doesn’t take into account that the Steelers aren’t awful on offense and Buffalo can be had defensively. I believe the Bills are going to score 34. If the Steelers can provide 13, we’re good. Take the Over (-110).
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I’ve been touting the Jags as a team with the offense to make a jump up the power rankings. However, even against the Texans, I’m not willing to give the Jags the points they’re assigned (7.5 points at -125 Texans, +100 Jaguars). They coming up and the Texans are nondescript, but 7.5 points? Too rich for my blood. Take the Texans plus 7.5 points (-125).
I look for a underdog or two to take every week on the moneyline. There weren’t many contenders because of the fat spreads on so many games. The Chargers are a road favorite heading east for 1 p.m. game. They are the better overall team, but the Browns protect the yard in this one. Take the Browns on the moneyline (+115).
Seattle is once again a high-point pick (46.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under), and I don’t see it. Didn’t see it last week when the Seahawks and Lions combined for 93 points and still don’t. Take the Under (-112).
The Buccaneers finally showed they could score in the first half (because they had to) and the Falcons are far less daunting an opponent than the Chiefs. The Bucs are solid favorites (9.5 points at -110 for both). We haven’t seen the Buccaneers beat down somebody yet. If it isn’t this week, it may not be coming. Take the Buccaneers and lay 9.5 points (-110).
In most cases, when a starting QB goes down, hope is lost. The Dolphins invested in Teddy Bridgewater to avoid that. The Dolphins are a solid road favorite (3.5 points at -103 Dolphins, -117 Jets). The number tells you not to bet Miami, but I am willing. Take the Dolphins and lay 3.5 points (-103).
The 49ers aren’t a Super Bowl winner, but they dominate when they force teams to play their style. They’re a big road favorite (6.5 points at -103 49ers, -117 Panthers). This disparity says the 49ers won’t cover. I’m thinking low-to-mid double digits. Take the 49ers and lay 6.5 points (-103).
The Eagles are the last unbeaten team and are heading to play a Cardinals team that hasn’t put together a full game yet this season. Philly is a strong road favorite (5.5 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Cardinals). While I think the Eagles will find a way to win, I’m not willing to give away that many points for a team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. Take the Cardinals plus 5.5 points (-112).
I’m not ready to give up on the Rams, although they have given reason to be abandoned. They remain a solid home favorite (5.5 points at -105 Cowboys, -115 Rams). The Cooper Rush saga has been a cute story, but Aaron Donald makes the difference in the decision when Dak Prescott comes back. Dallas didn’t put Prescott on four-week Injured Reserve but don’t want him making his comeback here. Take the Rams and lay 5.5 points (-115).
For divisional games, this rivalry is known for its lopsided smackdowns. The Ravens are favored (3.5 points at -117 Bengals, -103 Ravens). The two most recent beatings saw the Bengals outscore the Ravens 82-38. I’m picking the Ravens to win, but I like the chances getting 3-and-a-hook with the Bengals. Take the Bengals and 3.5 points.
The Raiders saved their season last week, but now head into Kansas City – where blowouts have been the norm. Vegas is going to try to run with the Chiefs, and the Over/Under on this game is the highest of Week 5 (50.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). At some point, this game is going to turn into a track meet – and it might take a defensive TD to get it started. Take the Over (-115).
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 4 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 4.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The smartest wagers to make in Week 4 from around the NFL.
Betting lines are much different this week than what they might have been if not for an insane Week 3.
The Buffalo Bills run an impossible 51 more offensive snaps than Miami (90-39), outgains the Dolphins by 272 yards, scored a butt-punt safety, had just one turnover, and held the ball for 40:40 of the 60 minutes – and lost.
The Kansas City Chiefs lost to an Indianapolis Colts team that couldn’t beat the Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars – two games they historically win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a lackluster home matchup with the Green Bay Packers that left both teams looking worse. Russell Wilson drowned out the boos of the home fans in Denver just in time to win. Monday Night Football was an insomnia cure with the Dallas Cowboys now 2-0 under Cooper Rush.
So many of the narratives and storylines heading into Week 3 were dropped on their heads, which left many bettors heading home instead of to the pay window. Normalcy needs to return.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Despite the Dolphins being the last unbeaten team in the AFC, they’re getting very little respect on the point spread, where the Bengals are solid home favorites (4.5 points at -115 Dolphins, -107 Bengals). The key here is that Joe Burrow isn’t getting protected. He’s been sacked 15 times and many of his 15 rushing attempts are escapes, not RPOs. Getting 4-and-a-hook on a team with a legit defense works for me. Take Miami and 4.5 points (-115).
The Vikings are modest favorites in London (2.5 points at -125 Vikings, +100 Saints). The Vikings aren’t playing at a high level but have enough to beat this version of the Saints, who are hurt on the offensive line and have a QB willing to throw 50/50 balls that too often are picked off. Take the Vikings and lay the 2.5 points).
I was stunned when I saw the Over/Under (47.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under). I would have thought five points than this – the third-highest point on the Week 4 slate. Ideally, both teams want to run the ball and not leave winning or losing in the hands of their quarterbacks. What about that screams 30-23? Take the Under (-107).
The Chargers took it on the chin the day after Christmas last year and the hands of the Texans. At the time, the Chargers were 8-6 and controlling their own playoff destiny. Houston had scored nine or fewer points six times. The Texans won 41-29. The Chargers are a strong road favorite (5.5 points at -107 Chargers, -115 Texans). I believe there is a receipt coming for the Texans. Take the Chargers and lay the 5.5 point (-107).
Here we go again with the inflated Over/Under numbers. The Over/Under here (48.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under) is behind only the Bills-Ravens (50.5). You have two teams that, when they’re playing their best, are run-heavy. Cleveland’s defense is legit and, if either team gets off to a 10-point lead, it will run on first and second down until it’s stopped. Take the Under (-107).
What a Rush! Coopermania is running wild in Dallas, but it’s the Cowboys defense that is making everything possible. The Cowboys are a modest home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Commanders, -102 Cowboys). I’m not convinced that Carson Wentz will fare any better against the Cowboys than he did against the Eagles. If your opponent can’t score 14 points, it doesn’t take a lot to cover the spread. Take the Cowboys and lay the 3.5 points (-102).
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As noted above, the Bills dominated Miami and still lost. I believe Buffalo is going to win this game, but the Bills are given a pretty significant number as a road favorite (3.5 points at +100 Bills, -125 Ravens). As always, the Ravens are the most banged-up team in the league, and the Bills will have enough of an answer for Lamar Jackson in the running game. Begrudgingly take the Bills and lay the 3.5 points (+100).
I still believe when all is said and done, if Derrick Henry stays healthy, the Titans win the AFC South. I have much less confidence in the Colts. The Colts are a solid home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Titans, -102 Colts). I think Tennessee can win this game outright. Giving away more than a field goal has my interest. Take the Titans plus 3.5 points (-122).
I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Jets on the road or the Steelers in general. However, these are the type of games Pittsburgh wins ugly. The Over/Under isn’t a shock (41.5 points at -110 for both), because neither offense has set the world on fire and both defenses have guys who make big plays. This won’t be a shootout. It will be about field position and field goals. Take the Under (-110).
The Jaguars are still being viewed as a “cute story” in 2022. Jacksonville’s defense is legit, and its offense is catching up. The Eagles are 3-0 and now have a multidimensional offense. Both teams have put up points, which is why the Over/Under is a little stiff (46.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Two teams that were on the outside of the discussion of Super Bowl contenders are going to treat this like a playoff game. I see a lot of running and tempo control here rather than flinging and slinging. Take the Under (-108).
Two of the most brutal offenses in the league that have combined to score 11 touchdowns in six games … The Giants are favored in this improbable matchup of 2-1 teams (3.5 points at -125 Bears, +100 Giants). I can’t see either team blowing the other out unless there are defensive touchdowns in play, so I’ll take my chances with the team getting points. Take the Bears and 3.5 points (-125).
The Cardinals have been a huge disappointment, because they’ve been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter and 80-23 through the first three quarters. As a result, the Panthers are a slim, shady favorite (1.5 points at -108 Cardinals, -112 Panthers). The Cardinals desperately need to win this one and won’t get blown out early this time around. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline (-108).
I hate everything about this game. The Patriots are on life support for the season, and the Packers still haven’t found itself offensively. Green Bay is a massive favorite (9.5 points at -105 Patriots, -120 Packers). I don’t like a point spread that big, but I’m unconvinced that Patriots are capable of scoring 14 points without a defensive or special teams touchdown. I much more confident in Green Bay scoring 24. Take the Packers and lay the 9.5 points (-120).
The Raiders are 0-3 and angry. They were a playoff team last year and have a better roster now than they did then. The Broncos are a phantom 2-1, which is why the Raiders are small favorites (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -120 Raiders). This is the game that doesn’t define Denver’s season. It’s the one that has to define the Raiders’ season. Take the Raiders and lay the 2.5 points.
The Bucs defense has been unheralded for the stellar job it has done to date. The Bucs offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in the first half all season. Tampa’s defense has been able to overcome it. The Chiefs lost last week, but remain road (if the game is actually played in Tampa) favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). It’s never easy to bet against Tom Brady, but if he tries to get in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes, he’s playing into the Chiefs’ hands. Take the Chiefs and lay the 1.5 points (-110).
The 49ers beat the Rams both times they met last season, but they played LA’s game. It became more up-tempo than San Francisco prefers. The Niners want to slow you down and grind out wins. The scores in last season’s meetings were 31-10 and 27-24. Both teams are willing to open things up, which makes the Over/Under a little unpalatable (41.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). The Rams are going to try to make this an up-tempo game. Win or lose, that’s all it takes. Take the Over at 41.5 points (-112).
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 3 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 3.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The best wagers to make on Week 3 NFL games.
Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season will have a significant impact on divisional races because there are multiple games of significance from the first game to the last.
The week starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cleveland Browns – the first of seven divisional games on the Week 3 slate. Sunday’s highlights include a battle of 2-0 division rivals when the Buffalo Bills go on the road to face the Miami Dolphins. The Philadelphia Eagles look to remain undefeated at the Washington Commanders, and the Los Angeles Rams face the Arizona Cardinals with first place in the NFC West on the line.
The week ends with an improbably critical matchup as the Dallas Cowboys look to steal another win without Dak Prescott when they face the undefeated New York Giants.
The divisions will have a much different look after Week 3 than they do now, and a significant amount of these games will come into play at the end of the season when valuable tie-breakers have been put in place.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
This has all the makings of a field position game with two divisional opponents that are on a short week of healing up. That said, the Over/Under is just too low (38.5 points at Over -108, Under -112) in my estimation. Both teams will look to run the ball, but there will be downfield shots for both quarterbacks that will put at least one team into the 20s, and I think both will do it. Take the Over (-112).
The Panthers are desperately looking to avoid dropping to 0-3, and the Saints are coming off disappointing home loss to the Buccaneers. New Orleans is healthy road favorite (3.5 points at +110 Saints, -135 Panthers). The difference in what needs to be invested is huge, and the Saints have a much better defense. When I doubt, I bet on defense – much less with the return on investment. Take the Saints and lay the 3.5 points (+110).
Neither offense has shown much in the way of a spark and both have been able to be shut down for long periods of game time. There is a very low Over/Under number (40.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). This game has all the looks of one with more field goals than touchdowns and both teams have the running games to string together seven-minute drives. You don’t need many of them to keep a score low. Take the Under (-115).
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The Ravens haven’t been a road favorite often in New England, but they’re favored this week (2.5 points at -125 Ravens, +102 Patriots). The Patriots offense is much better suited to play it’s ball-control style against like-minded teams. Lamar Jackson has been forced to take on the dual role of the only viable running option and opening up the passing game more. That’s recipe for a road win – and probably by more than three points. Take the Ravens and lay the 2.5 points.
A lot is going to be made about Carson Wentz looking for revenge against his old team, but the same can be said for the Eagles defense wanting to throttle him and prove why the organization parted ways with him. The Eagles are coming off a short week but should be a bigger favorite than they are (6.5 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Commanders). I see this as a double-digit win for Philadelphia and making a statement in the NFC East. Take the Eagles and lay the 6.5 points (-108).
This is the most difficult pick of the week for me. The 0-2 Raiders are slight road favorites (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). There are certain teams that I struggle giving up on, and the Titans are one of them. This was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and, while they have struggled, there’s talent on both sides of the ball. I think this is the week it finally clicks. Take the Titans on the moneyline (+110).
The Bengals have struggled out of the gate with the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year and the Jets are coming off a big win, which may explain why the Bengals are small favorites (4.5 points at -115 Bengals, -105 Jets). The Jets are taking positive steps, but the Bengals are built for a playoff run again. I would boost this bet up to 9.5 and feel comfortable with it. Take the Bengals and lay the 4.5 points.
The Colts were supposed to be the heavy favorite to win the AFC South but haven’t won a game yet and are facing the most successful team in the AFC over the last five years. These are the type of games that can trap a confident road favorite, like the Chiefs (6.5 points at -108 Chiefs, -112 Colts). I hate games like this, because the Colts will take more risks out of desperation, but they don’t have an answer for Patrick Mahomes. Take the Chiefs and lay the 6.5 points.
This is Miami’s opportunity to make a statement to the rest of the NFL that they’re a team to be reckoned with. The Dolphins dominated New England and overcame a 21-point deficit to the Ravens. The second reason is why I’m loving the Over/Under (53.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). Buffalo can hang 40 on anybody and won’t take the foot off the gas if it gets up 21-0 in the first half. The Dolphins will be slinging regardless. Take the Over (-105).
Like the Bills-Dolphins game, this one has a week-tying high Over/Under number (53.5 points at Over -105, Under -115). There is plenty not to like about this: Minnesota is coming off a humbling loss, and Kirk Cousins is likely not going to take any chances offensively. The Lions are at their best running the ball. In three of the four meetings in Minnesota with Cousins as QB, the Vikings have won them all with point totals of 36, 54, 27 and 33. Take the Under (-115).
The Jaguars are coming off the signature win of the Trevor Lawrence era with a shutout of the Colts, which helps to explain why the Chargers aren’t bigger favorites (6.5 points at +102 Jaguars, -125). The return on investment is rough for a reason. It’s been forever since the Chargers lost to the Chiefs last Thursday, and the Jags are flying cross-country. This point is too low. Take the Chargers and lay the 6.5 points (-125).
I don’t have a lot of faith in either team. I do know that Pete Carroll will run the ball to the point of frustration, and Marcus Mariota isn’t going to light up the town. The Over/Under is low (41.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). I don’t think it’s low enough. Take the Under (-108).
The big question here is to whom will Tom Brady have to throw? Both teams rested or put limitations on a lot of their players, but Mike Evans is out, and Chris Godwin and Julio Jones didn’t practice Wednesday. That explains the Bucs being pee-wee favorites (1.5 points at -112 Packers, -108 Buccaneers). Brady has entered games with worse and found ways to win. Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, so all bets should be off, and we should just enjoy the game. However, we make picks here. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 1.5 points (-108).
The Rams are a solid road favorite (3.5 points at -105 Rams, -115 Cardinals) for a divisional game. The Cards were run out of their own building by the Chiefs and the Rams have a very similar offensive styles. The Cardinals want to be up-tempo but, without DeAndre Hopkins, are not equipped to get involved in a shootout. Take the Rams and lay the 3.5 points (-105).
Russell Wilson’s primetime tour continues with a team he has absolutely owned in his career. He has won his last four and 16 of his last 18 games against the 49ers. He knows their personnel. He knows their schemes. The last few games have been high scoring, but when Wilson was at his best, his offense was controlling the clock. With a respectable Over/Under (44.5 points at -110 for both), it would seem big plays are expected. I think Wilson is going to revert to what worked early in his career and control tempo. Take the Under (-110).
The cards have fallen perfectly for the Giants, and if someone had said three weeks ago New York would be favorite (1.5 points at -112 Cowboys, -108 Giants), nobody would have believed it. The new quarterback of this team is Micah Parsons, and I think he will win another to cement his LT 2.0 legacy. Take the Cowboys on the moneyline (-101).
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 2 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 2.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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All of the smartest bets from each Week 2 game.
Week 2 is a watershed point of every season. Every team that won in Week 1 is looking to build on that momentum, while every team that loses is desperate to avoid the potential of falling to 0-2 and digging itself a hole that will take a month to try to dig out of (if they can).
There are four games pitting 1-0 teams against one another, which will knock down the number of undefeated teams by four – barring another tie – and there are five games involving teams that haven’t won yet, which will put a lot of pressure on them to avoid keeping a zero in the win column.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
This is a tough one to start the week because these two tend to get in shootouts that make this game the highest Over/Under on the Week 2 slate (54.5 points). The road team has won the last four meetings, so the Chargers won’t be intimidated heading into Arrowhead. Given all the improvements the other teams in the division have made, Kansas City needs to make a statement that it’s still the big dog in the yard. On Wednesday, the spread dropped a point on the Chiefs winning (3.5 points at -105 Chargers, -115 Chiefs), but I get the feeling Patrick Mahomes will make the plays needed late to win another shootout. Take the Chiefs and lay the 3.5 points (-115).
The Dolphins and Ravens both came off solid wins in Week 1, and the expectation is that the defenses will have the advantage with a relatively low Over/Under (44.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). Both teams have good defenses, but they play aggressively and are prone to making mistakes. When you have game-breakers like Lamar Jackson on one side of the ball and Tyreek Hill on the other, the potential for big plays that get a team immediately into scoring position makes you think the point isn’t high enough. Take the Over (-108).
The Lions have won only three of 18 games under head coach Dan Campbell, but the team showed signs of improvement late last year and are a young team building together on the draft harvest for Matthew Stafford. I’m not sold on the Commanders as being a team that can waltz in on the road and take a win. The point spread doesn’t make Detroit much of a favorite (1.5 points at -108 Commanders, -112 Lions). It doesn’t happen very often that you read these words: Take the Lions and lay the 1.5 points.
The Colts fully expected to be 2-0 opening on the road with the Texans and Jaguars to open the year, but they came away with a tie against Houston that has the plan changed. As a result, the Colts are a smaller road favorite than would be expected against the Jags (3.5 points at -112 Colts, -108 Jaguars). The Colts have a solid core who will correct mistakes better than a young Jaguars team, and Indy’s season as the best overall team in the division gets back on track. Take the Colts and lay the 3.5 points.
Just as stunning as the Lions being a favorite, so are the Giants after an upset win over the Titans on the road. While New York won the game on a missed field goal, the Panthers comeback to take the lead was snuffed by a 58-yard field goal with eight seconds to play. I look at these rosters and say the Panthers have the edge in too many key spots, yet the Giants are favored by 2.5 points. I’m not betting on the Lions and Giants in the same week on principle. Take the Panthers on the moneyline (+105).
I had some serious reservations about the Patriots before the season when hearing the news that they were putting a defensive coordinator and a special teams coach in charge of an offense. It showed in the Pats’ humbling loss to Miami in Week 1. Yet, the loss of T.J. Watt has impacted this line. New England is a road favorite (2.5 points at -125 Patriots, +105 Steelers). Do I have this right? You’re giving two-and-a-hook with the Steelers at home and I win more than I bet? Yes, please. Where did I leave my Terrible Towel? Take the Steelers on the moneyline (+105).
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I preface this pick with an explanation: I have learned that whenever a career stat is positive when you bet against Tom Brady, he has a history of rectifying those numbers. In four regular season games against the Saints as a division rival, Brady is 0-4. Despite that, the Bucs are still a small favorite in New Orleans (2.5 points at -125 Bucs, +102 Saints). I’ve been to the pay window too often by not betting against Brady – even with his O-fer against New Orleans in his Tampa experience (excluding sending the Saints home in the 2020 playoffs). Don’t bet against the G.O.A.T. It usually doesn’t end well. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 2.5 points (-125).
I strongly dislike both New York teams when it comes to betting on them. But one thing I strongly dislike even more are Over/Under numbers less than 40. This one qualifies (39.5 points at -117 Over, -103 Under). The Browns are capable of putting up points and, while it may take garbage time to hit it, I’m a sucker for an Under that is too hard to justify in the NFL. One defensive or special teams touchdown seals the deal. Take the Over (-117).
The Rams are stinging from their Week 1 home drubbing by the Bills and will have had 10 days to stew on it. They’re a gigantic favorites against the Falcons (10.5 points at -115 Falcons, -105 Rams). You’re almost being dared to take the Rams. That’s good enough for me. I would consider a boosted bet of 16.5 points to get more juice, because this has the makings of being an SEC non-conference game. Take the Rams and lay the 10.5 points (-105).
Geno Smith played the half of his life in Week 1 and still managed to put up only 17 points. The 49ers are still taking baby steps with Trey Lance. Both teams want to run the ball, which lends itself to the pee-wee Over/Under (42.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). This is an interesting number since the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites. A blowout is predicted with a low total. I’m not convinced Seattle can bring 13 points to the table. Take the Under (-112).
The defending AFC champs are coming off a face-slap loss at home to the Steelers that shouldn’t have happened. Dallas is reeling with the loss of Dak Prescott and the unwillingness to accept that fact and give up draft capital to bring in a replacement. The Bengals are a big road favorite (7.5 points at -108 Bengals, -112 Cowboys). This is a number that is deceptive because it has to be big enough to get Dallas fans to bet. It’s not big enough for my liking. Take the Bengals and lay the 7.5 points (-108).
This has a really big Over/Under (51.5 points at -110 for both). This is an ideal point because both offenses are capable of putting up 30 and both defenses are likely going to be forced to get back on the field quickly if the other hits a big play, which is a classic element of the “anything you can do, I can do better” mentality with offenses that think they’re superior. This has all the makings of that. Take the Over at -110.
The Texans came away with a tie in Week 1, and the Broncos took a loss they shouldn’t have. Denver is clearly the better team, but I’m not willing to give 10.5 points to prove a point. My only bet on this game is the Over/Under (44.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). I’m not a big fan of this bet either, but I like Denver’s defense enough to think the Texans won’t do their part enough to get to 45 points. Take the Under at -105.
A year ago after being drubbed by the Saints in Week 1, the Packers weren’t written off for dead, but they were disrespected. All Green Bay did was win its next seven games and 13 of its final 16 regular season games. I’m not a fan of how big a favorite the Packers are (9.5 points at -103 Bears, -117 Packers), but Chicago is still in the infancy steps with Justin Fields as the franchise guy, and Rodgers owns the Bears. He’s won the last six meetings and 20 of the last 23. That’s dominance. Not to mention that his last four wins have all been by double digits. Take the Packers and lay the 9.5 points (-117).
The Titans were stunned by the Giants and the Bills are at home with 10 days rest. The Over/Under is big (48.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under), but I’m very bullish on Buffalo coming out of the AFC, and this is another chance to make a statement. I’m convinced, barring a couple turnovers, the Bills are capable of scoring 35 points. The Titans can take care of the rest. Take the Over (-112).
The Vikings dominated Green Bay for four quarters, and the Eagles dominated the Lions for three. The Eagles are a sketchy home favorite (2.5 points at -108 Vikings, -112 Eagles). By now we know Kirk Cousins’ history in primetime (not good). The Vikings are a playoff team, but this one isn’t their mountain to conquer. Their defense will make the critical mistakes that cost them a lead, and Cousins will make the mistake that costs them the game. Take the Eagles and lay the 2.5 points.
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A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 1 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 1.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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All of the smartest wagers to make for Week 1.
There’s a general rule in gambling on games in Week 1 as teams showcase what they have coming into the season for the first time – when in doubt, bet on the home team.
Apparently those who made the NFL schedule were aware of that axiom. Of the 16 games in Week 1, 10 home teams are underdogs, including the defending champs.
If trying to rock the boat early was the NFL’s intent, well played. Now let’s see how many of these road favorites get the job done.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
This should be a great opening game with the defending champion Rams facing my pick to win it all this year in the Bills. A case can be made for both teams, which may explain why Buffalo is a 2.5 road favorite. But the number I’m interested in here is the Over/Under (51.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Both teams have solid defenses, but they also both have lethal offenses. All this will require is one team taking a 10-point lead early and then the fireworks begin. Take the Over at -112.
The Saints have quietly built a Super Bowl-contending team in the shadow of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and look to have as many offensive weapons as they did during the heyday of Drew Brees. Although I’m not a big fan of the number of points New Orleans has to give (5.5 points at -108 Saints, -112 Falcons), my lack of faith in Marcus Mariota and a team in the bottom seven on both offense and defense last year eases that concern. Take the Saints and lay the 5.5 points (-108).
The storyline here is Baker Mayfield playing against his former team, but nobody is talking about the Browns defense looking for the opportunity to knock Mayfield around and force him into the big mistakes that cost his team games too often in his career in Cleveland. This one’s for the Dawg Pound. Take the Browns on the Moneyline (+105).
The battle of two of hottest young quarterback prospects – Trey Lance and Justin Fields – is another made-for-TV scheduling decision, but the quarterbacks aren’t the real storyline. The 49ers have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL on both sides of the ball. The Bears are painfully thin on offensive depth, which is why the 49ers are big favorites (6.5 points at 49ers -120, Bears +100). Just as telling as the point spread is what you have to bet. Get in now before the line goes to 7.5 and the onus is higher to cover. Take the 49ers and lay the 6.5 points.
There are likely going to be a lot of people jumping on the Steelers getting 6.5 points (I’m not far off that myself), but I have a feeling this game is going to be about ball control and making plays to extend long drives. While the Over/Under is one of the lower totals on the board this week (44.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under), this one has the smell of a 23-20 of 20-13 type of game with more field goals than touchdowns from these division rivals. Take the Under (-115).
The Eagles are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The same can’t be said for the Lions. I’ve never been a fan of Jared Goff being able to put up a slew of points, which is why the Over/Under seems too inflated (48.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Dan Campbell has the Lions pointed in the right direction, but expecting his offense to light up the Eagles is a tall order the Lions likely aren’t up to taking on. Take the Under (-108).
The Colts are tied for being the biggest favorite of Week 1 (7.5 points) and, while I’m relatively convinced they can cover, I am looking at an Over/Under that seems very reachable whether the Texans put up a fight or not (45.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). It may take a touchdown in garbage time to hit this number, but Take the Over (-115).
Huge things are expected from Tua Tagovailoa with additions of Tyreek Hill and Chase Edmonds, but with the way New England plays defense, I see this game falling one of two ways. In one scenario, Miami makes enough big plays to put the game on the shoulders of Mac Jones to answer back and he fails. The other has New England grinding the ball on the ground and playing a smothering defense. In both those scenarios, the Over/Under (45.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under) seems too high. The only way this goes Over is if Miami blows the doors off the Patriots, which I don’t see happening. Take the Under (-105).
In the first of many 1 p.m. ET Sunday starts for the Jets, the script seems to remain the same – the league’s worst defense in 2021 is facing Lamar Jackson and a Ravens team looking to bounce back from one of the most injury-ravaged seasons in NFL history. The Ravens are a heavy favorite (7.5 points at Ravens +100, Jets -120). The 7-and-a-hook is always a tough number, but I don’t see the Jets being able to muster up much on offense, which leaves the game on the backs of the defense. Take the Ravens and lay the 7.5 points (+100).
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In a FRO affair (For Relatives Only), two teams viewed with very little in the way of postseason aspirations, the Commanders are a non-commanding favorite (2.5 points at -103 Jaguars, -117 Commanders). We likely won’t be saying this often during the season, but Take the Commanders and lay the 2.5 points (-117).
Tyreek who? Clearly, the oddsmakers aren’t intimidated by the new-look Chiefs wide receiver corps and have installed Kansas City as a big road favorite (5.5 points at -115 Chiefs, -105 Cardinals). While the biggest Over/Under on the board this week (53.5 points) is intriguing, all the Chiefs need to do is win the turnover battle and let Patrick Mahomes do what he does best. Take the Chiefs and lay the 5.5 points.
The Raiders and Chargers have been the little brothers of the AFC West for a long time and are both looking to knock the Chiefs off the top of the hill, making this Week 1 matchup one that may have big implications when we flip to 2023 at the end of the regular season. The Chargers are a modest favorite (3.5 points at -112 Raiders, -108 Chargers). The game is expected to be high scoring, which lends itself to the ball being in the air a lot. In that scenario, I have a lot more faith in Justin Herbert than Derek Carr. Take the Chargers and lay the 3.5 points (-108).
Of all the teams that are favored to win in Week 1, the least of those are the Packers (1.5 points at -108 Packers, -112 Vikings). The Vikings have consistently given the Packers much trouble in their recent reign atop the NFC North than the Bears or Lions. Kevin O’Connell makes his NFL debut with arguably the most talented veteran-laden roster any new coach inherits when his predecessor is fired. Rodgers has a vastly different set of receivers and, while they will come together and likely win the division again, they start 0-1. Take the Vikings on the Moneyline (-101).
Many have already forgot that the Titans were the No. 1 seed in a stacked AFC last season. You don’t go from that to a Ground Zero rebuild just because you traded A.J. Brown. The Giants were a mess on offense last season, which is why the Titans are a respectable favorite, but not big enough for my liking (5.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Titans are going to run all over the Giants if Derrick Henry gets his typical mammoth workload. Take the Titans and lay the 5.5 points (-110).
The Cowboys are one of my picks to be a team that will be competitive but lose too many games against the other elite teams in the league – many of them in standalone or primetime games. They are a home underdog to the Buccaneers (2.5 points at -117 Buccaneers, -103 Cowboys). That number is almost begging Cowboys fans to take the bait and bite. That rarely ends well and the investment being asked means those making the lines think it should be higher, but don’t want to give away too many points. That’s fine. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 2.5 points (-117).
Russell Wilson plays his first game for someone other than the Seahawks in a stadium where he is beloved. Seattle made no attempt to replace Wilson and veteran retread Geno Smith gets the start. The Over/Under on this game is interesting (44.5 points at -110 for both) because when Wilson is at his best, he is running the ball and mixing in the pass – few are better at the 12-play, 8-minute drive to gas the clock. Denver should dominate this game and, if the Seahawks don’t score at least 14 points, it will be hard to hit the point. Take the Under (-110).
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