Tag: moneyline bets NFL

Betting the NFL Line: Week 7

Check out our NFL Week 7 betting guide.

As teams begin to separate themselves from one another – some climbing to elite status, while others fall into the dreg category – you start to see big points spreads. However, it’s been a while since we’ve seen anything like we’re up against in Week 7 – not one, not two, but three games with a team favored by 12.5 points or more – and Jacksonville is on its bye week.

The biggest problem I have with this strange scenario is that those numbers didn’t meet the point it would take for me to choose the underdog. The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a mini-bye after playing the Thursday night game last week and are 12.5-point home favorites over Chicago and rookie QB Justin Fields. Liking the Bucs.

The Los Angeles Rams are at home against the winless Detroit Lions and are favored by 14.5 points. I’d need closer to 20 to get off that bet. Finally, the last unbeaten team (Arizona) plays host to my least favorite team in the league (Houston). The Cardinals are favored by 17.5 points. Houston, you still have a problem. Welcome to the pending beatdown.

As injuries and teams bottom-feeding become more prevalent, new teams may be added to the double-digit dog list from one week to the next. Welcome to the NFL in 2021, where the good are really good and the bad are really bad.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Oct. 20, at 9:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Denver Broncos (+102) at Cleveland Browns (-125)

Let me see if I got this right … No Baker Mayfield. No Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt. No Jarvis Landry. OBJ is questionable, as are both starting offensive tackles and the center. So are two starting defensive linemen (DT Malik Jackson and DE Jadeveon Clowney). And Cleveland is a 1.5-point favorite (Browns -112, Broncos -108)? If I wanted to bet on the lineup Cleveland is putting out Thursday, I would have bet on the second preseason game. No thanks. Take the Broncos on the Moneyline (+102).

Carolina Panthers (-165) at New York Giants (+133)

It’s almost impossible to give the Giants any consideration, because they’ve been collapsing on both sides of the ball. The G-Men have scored 20 or fewer points in four of six games and, in the last two, have allowed 82 points. Carolina has lost three straight, but they have the ability on both sides of the ball to have the edge in both phases. Carolina is getting enough respect being favored by 3.5 points (Panthers +105, Giants -130). It seems like the oddsmakers are tempting people to take the Panthers. Count me in. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+230) at Baltimore Ravens (-300)

The Ravens have rolled off five straight wins after losing their opener and are getting the respect they deserve being favored by 6.5 points (Cincinnati -108, Ravens -112). I don’t believe the Bengals are getting the respect they deserve for a team that can win games based on the talent of either side of the ball. Cincy is 4-2 and four of the games have been decided by three points – two of the wins and, more importantly, both of the losses. Baltimore is on a roll, but the Bengals need to make their statement that they’re in it to win in the AFC North. I’m not bold enough to predict a win here, because I’m getting 6.5 points to hedge my bet. Take the Bengals and the 6.5 points (-108).

Atlanta Falcons (-140) at Miami Dolphins (+115)

Two teams nobody really wants to touch because they’ve been poisonous. Miami has lost five straight, and the Falcons are 2-4. Personally, I would avoid any bet on this game, but the only aspect of this one I really like is that the schedule-maker screwing over Miami. This is the first time in the London series that a team didn’t get a bye following that game – played in Europe! That’s a road trip. Miami broke that mold. Why is Atlanta a 2.5-point favorite (Falcons -117, Dolphins -103)? The Falcons are coming off their bye and have had two weeks to prepare for a team still getting used to local body clock. Take the Falcons and lay the 2.5 points (-117).

Kansas City Chiefs (-240) at Tennessee Titans (+190)

A 3-3 road team playing a 4-2 home team and the road team is a 5.5-point favorite (Chiefs -115, Titans -105). Is Kansas City the better team? Yes. But, Derrick Henry is the X-factor. Over the last five games, he has rushed 145 times (that’s 29 a game), has topped 100 yards in three of those, and has 113 or more rushing yards in each game – 130 or more in all but one. The Chiefs need to make a statement, but their defense sucks, and they’re facing a Titans team capable of holding the ball for 35 to 40 minutes with good clock management. Take the Titans and the 5.5 points (-105).

Washington Football Team (+290) at Green Bay Packers (-380)

There will certainly be lame “Legend of Lambeau” references surrounding this game, but you go with the history at times. Green Bay is at home and favored by 7.5 points (WFT -105, Packers -115). That’s not surprising. They’ve won three of their five games by 10 or more – including both of their home games. In their last four games, Washington has faced two quality teams – Buffalo and Kansas City. They lost those games by 22 and 18 points, respectively. I put Green Bay in their category. Take the Packers and lay the 7.5 points (-115).

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New York Jets (+260) at New England Patriots (-340)

The Jets are coming off their bye, but they stink out loud on offense. New England has lost to every NFC team they have faced but beat the Jets 25-6 in Week 2, and neither team has changed much since then. The Over/Under is an ugly 42.5 points (Over -115, Under -110). But, I can’t see the Jets providing more than 14 to the equation and can’t picture New England scoring the 30 likely necessary to hit the Over. Barring at least one defensive touchdown – very possible with two rookie quarterbacks – take the Under (-110).

Philadelphia Eagles (+133) at Las Vegas (-165)

This is a tough one to jump on what seems an obvious bet. Both teams are in some form of uncertainty for their own reasons. The one thing both have in common is the ability to make the big play that gets them in scoring position in a hurry. There is the expectation of points with the Over/Under of 49.5 (-110 for both the Over and Under). Both teams are streaky with defenses that live and die by taking chances. Take the Over (-110).

Detroit Lions (+650) at Los Angeles Rams (-1100)

This is an absurd number with the Rams favored by 14.5 points (Lions -112, Rams -108). Simply stated, this is a revenge play. The Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Lions and they threw in Jared Goff. Goff likely knew he wasn’t the long-term answer in L.A. Stafford likely thought he was finishing his career in Detroit. Even under a new regime, he likely knows all the defensive weaknesses the Lions have and will exploit them. The Rams are 5-1 and are a wild card right now. They need to keep their foot on the gas. Take the Rams and lay the 14.5 points.

Houston Texans (+850) at Arizona Cardinals (-1800)

The Cardinals are a whopping 17.5-point favorite (Texans -108, Cardinals -112). Since Week 1, Houston hasn’t scored more than 22 points and have lost two of their last three games by 40 and 28 points. The Cardinals are the last unbeaten team and have wins over the Titans, Vikings, Rams and Browns – all teams at .500 or better who would seem much more imposing with one more win on their resumes. While the Cards have been more dominant on the road, Houston stinks and the only thing that prevents clearing that big hurdle is taking their foot off the gas – and that’s not in Arizona’s DNA this season. Take the Cardinals and lay the 17.5 points (-112).

Chicago Bears (+500) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-750)

The Bucs are a veteran team that needed some rest and got it following a Thursday win over the Eagles. The Bears defense has shown improvement but are 0-3 against 2020 playoff teams. These are the defending champs who brought everybody back. The Bucs are 12.5-point favorites (Bears -112, Buccaneers -108). An attacking defense against a rookie quarterback without his bell cow running back spells bad news for Justin Fields. It may take a defensive touchdown, but take the Buccaneers and lay the 12.5 points (-108).

Indianapolis Colts (+175) at San Francisco 49ers (-220)

This is a tough one because the 49ers are capable of blowing out the Colts, but Indy likely isn’t capable of blowing out San Fran. The Niners are favored by 4.5 points (Colts -112, 49ers -108) and they are coming off their bye week. While I believe San Francisco will win, I think 4.5 points is a shade too many to give away. Take the Colts and the 4.5 points (-112).

New Orleans Saints (-230) at Seattle (+180)

The Seahawks don’t look like the same team without Russell Wilson, and the Saints are coming off their bye week. The bet that interests me is the Over/Under of 43.5 points (-103 Over, -117 Under). It seems clear by those odds that the expectation is to hit the Under on a very low total with enough talented players on both sides of the ball. I’m not buying it. Take the Over (-103).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 6

Check out our NFL Week 6 betting guide.

Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season has a lot of intriguing games that could have some big implications down the line. The Dallas Cowboys are the only team from the NFC East that is favored to win and, if the favorites all win, Dallas could be three games up on everyone else in the division just six weeks in. Minnesota (2-3) is a road favorite at Carolina (3-2), which speaks to the oddsmakers view of both teams as playoff contenders.

Arizona is the last unbeaten team in the league, but is a 3.5 road underdog at Cleveland (3-2). The Kansas City Chiefs remain in sole possession of last place in the AFC West at 2-3 – matching their loss total for all of 2020 – but have a chance to change that as the 3-2 Raiders in the first game in the post-Jon Gruden era to the road to play 3-2 Denver with somebody having to drop. The week ends with a pair of clear-cut division, as Buffalo (4-1) travels to Tennessee (3-2) in hopes of avoiding another Music City Miracle.

As bye week season gets underway, here are the game bets we’re liking to take you to the pay window in Week 6.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Oct. 13, at 7:45 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-290) at Philadelphia Eagles (+225)

The Bucs are expected to roll over the Eagles, but veteran-laden teams tend to struggle on short weeks during the season. While I don’t anticipate the Eagles winning, I could see them making it a game by putting up 20 or more points along the way. The Over/Under is 52.5 points (Over -115, Under -105) is hittable if the game remains close or the Bucs get on a roll to make a statement before having a mini-bye week. Take the Over (-115).

Miami Dolphins (-180) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+145)

I don’t care for either of these teams, so I wouldn’t advise betting on this one at all, because you never know what you’re going to get. The NFL is dealing in bad faith with London by giving them this game a week after the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets. Since Week 2, Miami is allowing 34.5 points a game. The Jags are allowing more than 30 points a game this season. The Over/Under is 46.5 points (Over -117, Under -103). I’m not a fan of either offense, but these defenses will struggle to keep the score under that number. Take the Over (-117).

Minnesota Vikings (-120) at Carolina Panthers (+100)

Minnesota is heading into its bye week following this one and, after sleepwalking against Detroit, they’re a shocking favorite by 1.5 points (Minnesota -110, Carolina -110). The Panthers have lost two straight after starting 3-0 and are struggling on offense. If Christian McCaffrey makes it back, it could tilt the line, but the Vikings defense and offense are both capable of winning a game. This has the looks to be one of those games. Take the Vikings and lay the 1.5 points (-110).

Los Angeles Rams (-500) at New York Giants (+360)

There is always the line of thinking that West Coast teams struggle playing in the early window of games on the East Coast because of the time change and internal body clocks. However, the Rams are rested after playing Thursday night, and the Giants saw just about their entire offense carted off the field last Sunday. The Rams are a prohibitive 9.5-point favorite (Rams -117, Giants -103), and it’s for a reason. The Rams should dominate both sides of the ball and, if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, they should win by 17. Take the Rams and lay the 9.5 points.

Los Angeles Chargers (+125) at Baltimore Ravens (-155)

Both teams are coming off huge wins and are looking to make a statement that they’re legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Chargers are coming off a Big 12-style win over Cleveland and Lamar Jackson led an improbable comeback to win in overtime on Monday night. The Over/Under on this one is 52.5 points (Over -110, Under -108). If we’ve learned anything about the 2021 Chargers, they aren’t afraid to air things out early and often, and no lead is safe against the Ravens. When you have one team passing almost every down, it tends to lead to points for both teams. Take the Over (-110).

Green Bay Packers (-210) at Chicago Bears (+170)

Since 2010, Aaron Rodgers has played the Bears 21 times. He has a record of 19-2 in those games. They call this a venerable rivalry, but, in the Rodgers era, it is more akin to the rivalry between a hammer and a nail. The Packers are 4.5-point favorites (Green Bay -105, Chicago -115). The fact the Bears have the stiffer number speaks to the potential for a letdown game for the Packers, who have won four straight. I’m not buying it. Take the Packers and lay the 4.5 points (-105).

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Cincinnati Bengals (-190) at Detroit Lions (+155)

Two big factors come into play here in my opinion. I’ve been bullish on the Bengals since before the start of the season, and you could make a case that they should be 5-0 at this point. The Lions, on the other hand, have been snake-bitten all season – including two losses as time expired on field goals of 66 and 54 yards. At this point, I want everything to do with the Bengals and nothing to do with the Lions. The Bengals are favored by 3.5 points (Cincinnati -110, Detroit -110). I’ll take that every time this season with those two teams. Take the Bengals and lay the points.

Houston Texans (+370) at Indianapolis Colts (-520)

The Colts are 1-4, but it should be noted that their losses have been to the Seattle Seahawks, Rams, Titans and Ravens. I still contend the Texans are the worst team in the league and can’t be counted on to score more than 14 points in any game. The Over/Under is only 43.5 points (Over -108, Under -112) and is the second-lowest O/U of the week. But, for a team that has averaged just 10 points a game over the last three and a Colts offense that dinks-and-dunks its way down the field, points will be a premium, barring a defensive or special teams touchdown. Take the Under (-112).

Kansas City Chiefs (-290) at Washington Football Team (+225)

The Chiefs are struggling badly after a humbling home loss to Buffalo but are coming up against a team they should be able to handle. Kansas City’s defense is awful, and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, the Chiefs offense is likely to throw more – which historically has been bad for opponents. But 55.5 points is a little too rich for my blood, because I don’t believe Washington can do its part to make that happen. Kansas City is favored by 6.5 points (Chiefs -115, WFT -105). Personally, I would take a big point boost and roll the dice at 16.5. Take the Chiefs and lay the 6.5 points (-115).

Arizona Cardinals (+135) at Cleveland Browns (-170)

To be honest, I was a little surprised by this one and wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Cardinals on the Moneyline. If Arizona plays its game on offense, the Browns won’t be able to do their strength – run more times than they pass. The Chargers forced Cleveland into that kind of game, and the Cardinals are better at that. The Browns are favored by 3.5 points (Cardinals -120, Browns +100). I’m more than willing to take Arizona and 3-and-a-hook than bet on Kyler Murray having four or five three-and-outs. I’m not sure the Cards will be 6-0 coming out this one, but I’m more than willing to take Arizona and the 3.5 points (-120).

Las Vegas Raiders (+155) at Denver Broncos (-190)

With the Gruden debacle hanging over this one – trust me, when teams talk about “locker room distractions,” they are real – there’s no telling what Raiders team now being coached by the special teams guy will bring to the table. Of all the betting options, the 44.5-point Over/Under (Over -105, Under -115) seems to give the expectation a 23-16 “battle of field position and field goals” game. I don’t see it that way. I believe the Raiders are going to come out throwing with nothing to lose. Denver will have to respond. Take the Over (-105).

Dallas Cowboys (-190) at New England Patriots (+155)

The “Belichick Magic” would appear to be magical in large part because of Tom Brady. Keep in mind their two wins are against the Jets and Texans – two teams I will never project to win until the play the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Then I will predict a tie. Dallas is overhyped as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but they beat the stiffs on their schedule – and there are plenty of them this year. The Over/Under is 51.5 points (Over -108, Under -112), and I don’t believe the Cowboys will score the four touchdowns required to make that work. Dallas should continue to build their hype with a win, but take the Under (-112).

Seattle Seahawks (+180) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-230)

If Russell Wilson was healthy, I would take the Seahawks and run with it. But, Geno Smith is the QB, and he’s no Russell Wilson. There are times when placing a bet on the Over/Under you hit the point of historical no return. For the Over, that is about 58 points. Too many things have to happen. On the low end is 42 points – too many things can’t happen. The Over/Under on this one is 42.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Seahawks have too many weapons to get shut out, and the Steelers are easily capable of scoring 27 on their own – Wilson or no Wilson. Take the Over (-108).

Buffalo Bills (-240) at Tennessee Titans (+190)

The Bills are on a roll, and I don’t believe the Titans have the horses on defense to shut them down and win the game. However, I am convinced Tennessee will try to shorten the game by rushing Derrick Henry 35 times. Over the last four games, Henry has rushed the ball 125 times – every carry taking as much time off the 40-second play clock as Tennessee wants to see gone. The Over/Under is 54.5 points (-105 Over, -115 Under). I don’t think it’s a winning strategy to try to beat Buffalo with a steady diet of grinding run plays that get you to third down too often, but it will work long enough that the point will be difficult to hit. Take the Under (-115).

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

Betting the NFL Line: Week 5

Check out our NFL Week 5 betting guide.

In the last week before the byes kick in for the next nine weeks and the number of games becomes more limited, there are some interesting matchups to keep an eye on.

For the second straight week, the teams from the NFC West butt heads as the Los Angeles Rams (3-1) and Seattle Seahawks (2-2) get the party started on Thursday and the San Francisco 49ers (2-2) heading to Arizona (4-0) to try to tighten up the division.

The week ends with another potential instant classic on Sunday night when Buffalo (3-1) heads into Kansas City (2-2) looking to put the Chiefs behind the 8-ball with the chance to hand them another key AFC loss, which would make them 1-3 in the conference. Enjoy 16 games in a week while it’s here, because after this week, we won’t see it again until the weekend before Christmas.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Oct. 6, at 9:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Rams (-135) at Seattle Seahawks (+110)

Under ordinary circumstances, taking the Seahawks as a home dog in front of the “12th Man” would be a no-brainer. The Rams are a 2.5-point favorite (Los Angeles -110, Seattle -110). However, Los Angeles is coming off a humbling loss to the Cardinals and will have gone through a rough week of practice to prevent a repeat. Seattle will keep it close, but a 2.5-point spread isn’t difficult for any winning team to cover. Take the Rams and lay the 2.5 points (-110).

New York Jets (+140) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-175)

London may not be thrilled that this is the first NFL game to be played in their county since the pandemic began, but it’s something. The Over/Under on this one is 46.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). For as bad as they’ve been much of the season, the Jets haven’t allowed more than 26 points in any game, and there’s little reason to think the Jets can score more than 20, which would be required to hit the Over on this line. Take the Under (-112).

Philadelphia Eagles (+155) at Carolina Panthers (-190)

The Eagles have lost three straight and the Panthers have wins over the Jets, Saints and Texans – none of whom should be in sniffing distance of the playoffs. The key here is Christian McCaffrey. He was back at practice Wednesday, which is a huge relief for Panthers fans. Carolina is favored by 3.5 points (Philadelphia -112, Carolina -108). With the addition of Stephon Gilmore and the potential for McCaffrey being back, this could be a statement game. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points (-108).

Miami Dolphins (+380) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-540)

The Bucs have been pushed hard the last two games, but the simple truth is they are a deep team on both sides of the ball that should be able to manhandle a younger, less talented Dolphins squad. After being kept out of the end zone last week, Tom Brady is due to go nuts again and throw 45 times. The Bucs are favored by 9.5 points (Miami -102, Tampa Bay -122). That’s a big number, but not big enough. Take Tampa Bay and lay the 9.5 points (-122).

New England Patriots (-450) at Houston Texans (+330)

Last week, the Patriots gave Tampa Bay all they wanted and now they face the most mismanaged franchise in the league. Houston has scored a total of nine points in their last two games, and the Patriots are 7.5-point favorites (New England -115, Houston -107). Mac Jones impressed a lot of people last week. His bandwagon may start taking on passengers this week. Take the Patriots and lay the 7.5 points (-115).

New Orleans Saints (-135) at Washington Football Team (+110)

The Saints look like world-beaters one week and bums the next, while Washington’s defense has been exposed this season. The Over/Under on this game is 43.5 points Over -103, Under -112). In the last three games, Washington games have hit 59 or more in all three. New Orleans has proved it can put up crooked numbers often, too. This point seems too low to ignore. Take the Over (-103).

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Detroit Lions (+300) at Minnesota Vikings (-400)

The teams are a combined 1-7, but Minnesota is a surprisingly prohibitive favorite at 8.5 points (Detroit -112, Minnesota -108). There’s a reason. Kirk Cousins is 6-0 against the Lions, and the margin of victory has been 2, 14, 13, 12, 18 and 16). After seeing that, I’m willing to lay those points, because teams beating down one team so consistently isn’t a fluke. Take Minnesota and lay the 8.5 points (-108).

Denver Broncos (-103) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-117)

It’s a sign of the times that vaunted Steelers are only a 1.5-point favorite at home (Denver -112, Pittsburgh -108). The Steelers have a lot of veteran leaders and they tend to pick themselves up. They started their season with a Murderer’s Row of Buffalo, Las Vegas, Cincinnati and Green Bay. Denver is good but may be the weakest roster of the five teams the Steelers have faced. For maybe the last time, if they get can’t score 20 points again, take the Steelers and lay the 1.5 points (-108).

Green Bay Packers (-165) at Cincinnati Bengals (+133)

The Packers are on a roll, winning three straight, but there’s something about the Bengals that get your attention. They’re 3.5-point home underdogs (Green Bay +100, Cincinnati -125). This has the classic “trap game” smell to it. I haven’t talked myself into taking the Bengals on the Moneyline, but I am willing to take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-125).

Tennessee Titans (-205) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+165)

The Titans were without their top two wide receivers last week and lost to the hapless Jets. Somebody has to pay for that. It will be Jacksonville. The Titans are only a 4.5-point favorite (-107 Tennessee, -115 Jacksonville). The Titans will impose their will in this one – with or without Julio and A.J. Take the Titans and lay the 4.5 points (-107).

Chicago Bears (+190) at Las Vegas Raiders (-240)

The Bears look hopeless on offense at times, and the Raiders are coming off a short week. Las Vegas is favored by 4.5 points (Chicago -107, Las Vegas -115). While the Bears defense will do what it can to keep things close, critical mistakes on offense will be the difference for Chicago. The Raiders don’t take a ton of risks on offense and that should be the critical difference. Take the Raiders and lay the 4.5 points (-115).

Cleveland Browns (+102) at Los Angeles Chargers (-125)

A classic matchup of a team that can dominate with the run and the other ready to throw on every down, if necessary. Here’s where the rub comes with an Over/Under of 46.5 points (-117 Over, -103 Under). If Cleveland opens a 10-point lead, the Chargers will keep throwing. If L.A. opens a 10-point lead, both teams will keep throwing. This has the hallmarks of a 31-27 type, which blows out the point to beat. Take the Over (-117).

San Francisco 49ers (+190) at Arizona Cardinals (-240)

If the 49ers were at 100 percent offensively, the Cardinals wouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points (-110 for both teams). Only one of their four wins has been by less than 12 points. While 5.5 seems like a little too much to give up, with Trey Lance likely to make his starting debut and a run game that has been gutted by injury, this isn’t the time to face a defense hitting its stride. Take the Cardinals and lay the 5.5 points.

New York Giants (+230) at Dallas Cowboys (-300)

Neither defense has proven it can consistently stop anyone. This one has the making of an up-tempo, back-and-forth game that the Cowboys win, but the Giants keep themselves within reach in the second half. The Over/Under is 52.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). The Cowboys defense isn’t good, and the Giants will likely lose by double digits, but they’ll do their part. Take the Over (-112).

Buffalo Bills (+120) at Kansas City Chiefs (-145)

Kansas City is already in sole possession of last place in the AFC West. The Over/Under is a gigantic 56.5 points (-110 for both). There are three things to consider on this bet. Can Buffalo do its part? In their last three games, the Bills have scored 118 points. Check. Does Kansas City’s defense give up too many points? In the four games opponents have scored 29, 36, 30 and 30 points. Check. Is Kansas City’s offense capable of putting up points? … 134 and counting to date. Check. The 56.5 Over/Under is a huge number that will require almost a point per minute. But this one has the looks and smell of game where second team to 35 loses. Take the Over (-110).

Indianapolis Colts (+250) at Baltimore Ravens (-320)

The start to Indy’s season has been brutal (the Seahawks, Rams, Titans and Dolphins). They saved their season with a much-needed road win at Miami last week, but now have to travel to Baltimore. The Over/Under on this one is 45.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Ravens have gone under that considerably the last two games (36 vs. Detroit and 30 vs. Denver). The Colts have been under this number in three of four games. While they’ll probably light up the Monday night sky after that buildup, take the Under (-112).

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

Betting the NFL Line: Week 4

Week 4 betting guide for moneyline, ATS, and more!

We’re starting to get a feel for which NFL teams are looking to make a long-term run for the playoffs and who are likely to flounder. There are several key games that may help prove the case for some teams, including Carolina (3-0) at Dallas (2-1), Arizona (3-0) at the Los Angeles Rams (3-0), and Baltimore (2-1) at Denver (3-0).

However, the prime slate this week may be as good as its going to be as Tom Brady makes his historic appearance returning to Gillette Stadium. The week ends with what looked like a forced divisional matchup when the schedule came out but turns out to be the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1 and fresh off a road win over Kansas City). Get your popcorn ready.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 29, at 10:20 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook. 

Jacksonville (+290) at Cincinnati (-380)

The Bengals are going to begin getting the respect they deserve. Being favored by 7.5 points (-110 for both teams) is a start. If Jacksonville wants to win, the Jags will need to run the ball. But, Cincinnati has allowed just 235 rushing yards (a 3.3-yard average) and that was against Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery and Najee Harris. If Jacksonville can’t run and rookie Trevor Lawrence is forced to throw, a brief history has illustrated that things will get ugly. Take the Bengals and lay the 7.5 points (-110).

Indianapolis (+110) at Miami (-135)

Indy has made the playoffs two of the last three years but has started 0-3 and their season is on the brink of collapse. But, it should be noted that they played against Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee. So far, I’m 3-0 betting against the Colts, because they were the inferior team in all three matchups. They’re not inferior to Miami, which is a 2.5-point favorite. Take the Colts on the Moneyline (+110).

Cleveland (-135) at Minnesota (+110)

Minnesota is a home dog, but the Browns are the best they’ve faced to date this season. The Browns are a 2.5-point favorite (Cleveland -112, Minnesota -108). The Browns have the best 1-2 rushing punch in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland has rushed 102 times for 524 yards and eight touchdowns. The Vikings’ run defense is allowing 4.8 yards per rush. Minnesota’s offense is playing extremely well, but the Browns run game will dictate the pace. Take Cleveland and the lay the 2.5 points (-112).

Houston (+750) at Buffalo (-1400)

When you have the potential for a smackdown of this proportion, you have to give a college football number for a non-conference creampuff. The oddsmakers obliged – Buffalo is a 16.5-point favorite (-110 for both teams). If I’m going to bet on a coin flip, I’m going with the team capable of winning by 35, which Buffalo has already done this season. Take the Bills and lay the 16.5 points (-110).

Kansas City (-290) at Philadelphia (+225)

Kansas City is currently in sole possession last place in the AFC West with a home division loss and a loss to a team that could have a tie-breaker edge in January as a result (Baltimore). The Eagles are coming off a short week after a humbling 20-point road loss to Dallas. While this one screams of taking the Chiefs and laying the points, the Over/Under of 54.5 points (Over -110, Under -110) is the safer play. Kansas City’s defense isn’t good, but Patrick Mahomes will supply 35 of the points needed. If the Eagles can get to 20 with a late garbage-time TD, it hits. Take the Over (-110).

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Tennessee (-320) at New York Jets (+250)

This is one the head-scratchers of the week. The Titans bring too little return to bet the Moneyline. The Over/Under is a tough call, because you have to ask how many points the Jets need to score to hit the Over. All that’s left is the point-spread, where the Titans are favored by 6.5 points (Tennessee -112, New York -102). Give me Derrick Henry and less than a touchdown? Yes, please! Remember the Titans and lay the 6.5 points (-122).

Detroit (+122) at Chicago (-150)

We are three weeks into the season and Chicago has been beaten by 20 points twice. I don’t care about the ghosts of Soldier Field. This team is a mess, and the jackals were calling for the coach’s head in Week 3. Detroit is winless (No! Really?). But, they hung with the 49ers, gave a blueprint for how to force Aaron Rodgers to run the ball and, if not for a NFL record-setting miracle, would have beaten the Ravens last week. I think I want to roll with the second of those two crews. Take the Lions on the Moneyline (+122).

New York Giants (+280) at New Orleans (-370)

Is there such a thing as two teams in a game you want nothing to do with? The Saints are a much different team at home – especially when you had to vacate home because a hurricane locked in on your town. This is the type of emotional return that Steve Gleason a legend. Pandemic and now this? The storybook says the Saints crush the Giants. But, I don’t trust Jameis Winston. The Over/Under is a scant 41.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Saints should march in a deafening way, but Winston will throw the Pick 6 that clinches low number getting hit. Take the Over (-108).

Washington (-115) at Atlanta (-105)

Both teams are relative disappointments. Washington’s defense was one of the best in the league last year but has disappointed this year. Atlanta’s defense is heinous as always. Washington’s defense should be better, and the Over/Under is 47.5 points (Over -105, Under -115). Neither team should be able to completely dominate each other, which could lead to longer drives or field possession games. Take the Under (-115).

Carolina (+170) at Dallas (-210)

The Cowboys are overrated (as usual) and every wins gets someone else jumping on the bandwagon. The truth is, they are what they are and, in the end, are mediocre. The Panthers are 3-0, but two of the wins have come against the Jets and Texans. The Panthers have only allowed 30 points, which takes doing even against lesser competition. The Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites (Carolina -115, Dallas -107). While the Cowboys are capable of dominating at home, the Panthers are solid enough defensively to keep it close and competitive. Take the Panthers and the 4.5 points (-115).

Seattle (+122) at San Francisco (-150)

The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites, but nobody has told that to Russell Wilson. He has been extremely successful against a 49ers defense he has played for a decade. Many are predicting the Seahawks are going to be the also-ran of this division. But, with San Francisco so depleted in the run game, they can’t control the tempo as they’re used to. Seattle will find a way. Take the Seahawks on the Moneyline (+122).

Arizona (+175) at Los Angeles Rams (-220)

The addition of Matthew Stafford has changed a lot of things in the NFC West. The best thing for those interested in taking the Over of 54.5 points (Over -117, Under -103) is that both teams are capable of coming back from 10 points down. Both teams have the defenses to keep this well under the point spread, but both teams force the issue on offense and enough big plays follow that style of play. Take the Over (-117).

Baltimore (-108) at Denver (-112)

Denver is a 0.5-point favorite, which is saying the unbeaten Broncos aren’t the better team – despite being 3-0 to start the season. Ironically, the Broncos are a 0.5-point favorite (Baltimore -108, Denver -112). The Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball, so getting a half-point is a bonus as the same price on the Moneyline is a must-take. If you have a tie, bets on the Moneyline are a push. If given 0.5-point at the same odds, if the game ends tied, you win getting the half-point for the same price. Take the Ravens and the 0.5 points (-108).

Pittsburgh (+230) at Green Bay (-300)

The Steelers have the look of the team that wheezed down the stretch of last season. But, they went in and won in Buffalo in Week 1 and won’t be afraid to throw 50 times against a middle-of-the-road Packers defense. The Over/Under is 45.5 points (Over -110, Under -110). The Packers have the ability to put up 31 of their own, so it isn’t a stretch to think the Steelers can keep this tight one way or another. Take the Over (-110).

Tampa Bay (-320) at New England (+250)

I quit betting against the G.O.A.T. in a big game some time ago, which did good by me in the playoffs last year. Tommy Boy is coming home and the entire Bucs organization is going to do what it can to make a happy homecoming. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points (Tampa Bay -122, New England -102). I would lay 10 points and Brady, whose legacy just keeps adding chapters. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 6.5 points (-122).

Las Vegas (+135) at Los Angeles Chargers (-170)

The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Kansas City, but the Raiders are 3-0, including wins against the Ravens and Steelers. Both teams have played a lot of one-score games, which makes the Chargers being favored by 3.5 points (Raiders -122), Chargers (-102). The Chargers have every reason to think they will win this game, but they’re aren’t in a position to be giving away too many points. Take the Raiders and the 3.5 points (-122).

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

Betting the NFL Line: Week 3

How should you locate this week’s betting allowance?

This week features games with some huge divisional implications and a couple that could have an impact in January in the NFC.

The Indianapolis Colts look to be the only team capable of knocking off the Titans,  and they head into Tennessee desperate for a win. The Chargers are looking to be relevant and going into Kansas City will be the truest test of where they’re at. Sunday’s late window of games will include four teams viewed as the top threats to represent the conference in the Super Bowl as Tampa Bay heads to L.A. to face the Rams and Green Bay travels to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 22, at 8:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook. 

Carolina (-420) at Houston (+320)

Houston simply isn’t a good team and they will be facing long odds in most of their games. Carolina seems a bit oversold as a 7.5-point favorite (Carolina -115, Houston -107), but I’m not going to be on Houston to win anything all season with the potential exception of their rematch against Jacksonville. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points (-115).

Chicago (+250) at Cleveland (-320)

Chicago is likely ready to make the switch to Justin Fields sooner than later, because the Bears have struggled out of the gate. The Browns are 6.5-point favorite (Chicago -102, Cleveland -122). Cleveland has a banged-up receiver corps, but their plan will likely be to run Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt 35 times, which typically ends well. I wish the spread was a point or two lower for confidence’s sake, but take the Browns and lay the points (-122).

Cincinnati (+145) at Pittsburgh (-180)

The Bengals are improving, while the Steelers offense looks too much like it did late last season. Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 points (Cincinnati -120, Pittsburgh -105). I think the Steelers will win the game, but it will probably come down to the last possession, which makes the cushion on the point spread look better, because this would be a statement win for the Bengals if they pull it off. Take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-120).

Los Angeles Chargers (+225) at Kansas City (-290)

The Chargers have the offense to hang with Kansas City’s suspect defense and this one has the makings of a shootout the Chiefs pull away from in the second half. The Over/Under is 54.5 (-108 Over, -112 Under). Typically the best advice is to stay away from the Over when the point gets up into the middle 50s, but both teams are capable of lighting up the other’s defense. Take the Over of 54.5 (-108).

Arizona (-340) at Jacksonville (+260)

The NFC West is going to fatten up on teams like Jacksonville and Houston, which makes the Cardinals being a 7.5-point favorite (Arizona -105, Jacksonville -120) make sense as the oddsmakers try to get people to jump on Jacksonville. I would have set the line closer to 10 and still not bite on the Jags. Take the Cardinals and lay the 7.5 points (-105).

Baltimore (-420) at Detroit (+320)

Detroit is coming off a short week after collapsing in the second half Monday at Green Bay and now face a Ravens team coming off a defining win against the Chiefs. The Ravens are an 8.5-point favorite (Baltimore -112, Detroit -108) and should run away from Detroit, like most quality teams do. Take the Ravens and lay the 8.5 points (-112).

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Atlanta (+125) and New York Giants (-155)

Is there a way to bet both teams to lose? The Giants are 2.5-point favorite (Atlanta +105, New York -130) and the only factor that has me leaning the way of the Giants is being at home and being rested after playing last Thursday. Take the Giants and lay the 2.5 points (-130).

Washington (+310) at Buffalo (-410)

The Bills were unimpressive in their first home game of the season, but it was because they went up against a quality Pittsburgh defense. They’re facing another quality defense in Washington and have an Over/Under of 45.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). Buffalo has the offense to put up enough points to hit this number, but Washington will likely give them all they can handle. Take the Under at 45.5 points (-112).

Indianapolis (+190) at Tennessee (-240)

The Titans made a statement winning in Seattle last week and come home to face an Indianapolis team that is 0-2 out of the gate. Tennessee is favored by 5.5 points (Indianapolis -110, Tennessee -110). The Titans have leaned heavily on Derrick Henry when they need a win and creating separation between themselves and the rest of the division makes this game fit into the “must-win” category. Take the Titans and lay the 5.5 points (-110).

New Orleans (+125) at New England (-155)

The Over/Under on this game is surprisingly low at 42.5 points (Over -108, Under -112), but both teams have enough playmakers on offense and defense that the point is too low. It wouldn’t be surprising if there was a defensive/special teams score (or two) and that may be necessary. Take the Over at 42.5 points (-108).

New York Jets (+420) at Denver (-600)

The Broncos are the most prohibitive favorite of the week at 10.5 points (New York -120, Denver -105), but the Jets defense has been surprisingly stout despite an offense that turns the ball over too often. If the Jets can simply hold the ball and not commit critical turnovers, that spread will be hard for Denver to cover. Take the Broncos plus the 10.5 points (-120).

Miami (+165) Las Vegas (-205)

The Raiders have proven they’re a legitimate playoff contender and come up against a Dolphins team without Tua Tagovailoa, who is sidelined with a rib fracture. The Raiders are a 3.5-point favorite (Miami -107, Las Vegas -112), which seems a little low for a team going up against a quarterback who didn’t get first-team reps all summer and into the regular season. Like it or not, the Raiders are legit. Take the Raiders and lay the 3.5 points (-112).

Seattle (-120) at Minnesota (+100)

It’s hard not to take Seattle since Russell Wilson has a 7-0 career record against Minnesota, but this could be the game the Vikings have to win to end that streak and save their season. That being said, this has all the makings of a one-score game decided at the end. The Over/Under is 55.5 points (-105 Over, -115 Under). Both Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are capable of scoring 27 or more points. Take the Over (-105).

Tampa Bay (-125) at Los Angeles Rams (+102)

This is another game that has a very high Over/Under of 55.5 points (-110 Over, -110 Under), especially considering how good the defenses are for both teams. The offenses are going to press the issue, but this game will need seven touchdowns and three field goals to hit the Over. With as strong as both teams are in their front seven, that doesn’t seem realistic – far from impossible, but not realistic. Take the Under (-110).

Green Bay (+145) at San Francisco (-180)

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite (Green Bay -120, San Francisco -105). I was struggling with not taking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on the moneyline, because it isn’t often you win more than you’re willing to lose betting on Rodgers. However, being given 3.5 points and Rodgers is just too hard to pass up. Take Green Bay plus the 3.5 points.

Philadelphia (+155), Dallas (-190)

Dallas has dominated the rivalry over the last six years, but the Eagles have won two of the last three. This is a tough one, because Dallas is capable of blowing out Philly, but I don’t believe the reverse is true. Dallas is favored by 3.5 points (Philadelphia -108, Dallas -112). It’s a spread that makes sense, because there hasn’t been a game between these two that has been decided by less than six points in their last 10 meetings. If you think Philly is going to win, bet the moneyline. But, I’m with Dallas in this one. Take the Cowboys and lay the 3.5 points (-112).

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

Betting the NFL Line: Week 1

The best picks for betting against the point spread, the over/under or the moneyline.

The NFL season has begun and everyone begins with a clean slate. It won’t last for long as we find out which teams look to be improved in 2021 and which struggle out of the gate. We will select a bet on each game that we like the most – betting against the point spread, the over/under or the straight up moneyline.

Odds provided by Tipico (updated Wednesday, Sept. 8, at 8:30 p.m. ET)

Dallas (+310) at Tampa Bay (-410)

The Bucs are coming into the 2021 season as the defending champs and are 7.5-point favorites (Dallas -107, Tampa Bay -115). With questions surrounding the health of Dak Prescott and Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin out with COVID protocol, the Cowboys have too many unknowns to ignore. Take the Bucs and lay the 7.5 points (-115).

Arizona (+130) at Tennessee (-160)

The oddsmakers clearly aren’t sold on the Titans being able to cover the 3.5- point spread (Arizona -130, Tennessee +105). Arizona is a trendy pick to be a playoff contender, but traveling across the country and playing at 10 a.m. body clock time is a lot to ask. Getting more than you bet on Tennessee at home looks like a good call. Take the Titans and lay the 3.5 points (+105).

Minnesota (-190) at Cincinnati (+155)

Minnesota had a brutal defense last season, but have a lot of talented players coming into 2021 that weren’t on the roster last season. The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite (Minnesota -108, Cincinnati -112). While I believe Minnesota will win, this could come down to the final drive to do so, and Minny is giving away too many points for a scenario like that. Take the Bengals plus the 3.5 points (-112).

Seattle (-155) at Indianapolis (+125)

I was surprised when I saw Seattle favored by just 2.5 points (Seattle -130, Indianapolis +105). It has the smell of a trap, but Carson Wentz has missed too much time with a foot injury, and Seattle doesn’t give away games. This one seems like a game that should have a spread a point or two higher. Take Seattle and lay the 2.5 points (-130).

New York Jets (+190) at Carolina (-240)

The over/under is 43.5 points (-117 over/-103 under) – the second lowest O/U of the week. But, it’s there for a reason. The Jets are starting rookie Zach Wilson in his debut, and he’s going against Sam Darnold, who the Jets gave up on. It doesn’t take a lot to get this game over, but, barring a defensive or special teams score helping out, it’s going to be more difficult. Take the under (-103).

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Jacksonville (-175) at Houston (+140)

I’m no fan of the Jags being a legitimate contender, but Houston has completely overhauled its roster and has the potential to only win a couple of games all season. The Jaguars are 3.5-point road favorites (Jacksonville -102, Houston -122), which speaks to how bad things are in Houston. The Texans are going to be hard to watch and help Trevor Lawrence make a solid debut. Take Jacksonville and lay the points (-102).

Philadelphia (+135) at Atlanta (-170)

Both teams have recent Super Bowl history but have both fallen on hard times over the last couple of years. They have a relatively high over/under of 48.5 points (-108 over/-112 under). Jalen Hurts still needs to prove he can be field general and Matt Ryan will start a season without Julio Jones for the first time in 10 years. Neither sounds like a formula for a shootout. Take the under (-112).

Pittsburgh (+220) at Buffalo (-280)

These two both think they have a Super Bowl team assembled and have an over/under of 48.5 points (-105 over/-115 under). Buffalo has the ability to get ahead by double digits in this game, which plays in Big Ben’s strength of throwing 40 times to keep up. Take the over (-105).

Los Angeles Chargers (-108) at Washington (-112)

The point spread has Washington favored by a half-point. It doesn’t seem possible to anticipate a tie, which would be the only reason to take the hook if you think the Chargers are going to win. Washington’s defense is worth watching, but the Chargers offense will do enough to win. Take the Chargers on the moneyline (-108).

Cleveland (+205) at Kansas City (-260)

The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites (Cleveland -115, Kansas City -107), which seems about right. Cleveland is going to try to dominate the game on the ground, but you need long drives to make that happen. Kansas City’s quick-strike ability may force the Browns to try to keep pace and that plays into the Chiefs’ hands. Take the Chiefs and lay 6.5 points (-107).

Denver (-160) and New York Giants (+130)

This is a make-or-break season for Daniel Jones, who needs to step up his game. Denver comes in as a 3.5-point road favorite (Denver +105, New York -130). While I’m leaning for Denver to win the game, giving away more than three points on the road to a team capable of containing Teddy Bridgewater and keeping the game close, it may be asking too much. Take the Giants and the 3.5 points (-130).

Miami (+130) at New England (-160)

The Patriots are being shown a lot of respect as a 3.5-point favorite (Miami -130, New England +105). Without the security of a veteran like Cam Newton, if Mac Jones struggles in his debut, there is no security blanket behind him, and that could be bad news. Take Miami on the moneyline (+130).

Green Bay (-200) at New Orleans (+160)

The Saints are playing their first opener without Drew Brees in 15 years, which explains why Green Bay is a 3.5-point road favorite Green Bay -115, New Orleans -107). Jameis Winston is no Drew Brees, and the Packers will be salivating at the chance to attack a defense with a short field when Winston inevitably makes the mistakes that result in his trademark turnovers. Take the Packers and lay the 3.5 points (-115).

Chicago (+290) at Los Angeles Rams (-380)

Matthew Stafford makes his debut with the Rams against a team he has played twice a year his entire career. The Rams are a 7.5-point favorite (Chicago -110, Los Angeles -110) and, while that is a lot to give away, Stafford knows all of their weaknesses. Take the Rams and lay the 7.5 points (-110).

Baltimore (-210) at Las Vegas (+170)

The only reason this game is on Monday night is a full house in Las Vegas to give the Raiders a national showcase. But, the Raiders had an awful defense last year, struggling against the run and the pass. Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite (Baltimore -108, Las Vegas -112), which seems too low given Lamar Jackson can scorch them on the ground and through the air. The Raiders will have to pick their poison and live with the consequences. Take the Ravens and lay the 4.5 points (-108).