The 49ers probably aren’t selecting a running back with their first pick in the 2020 NFL draft.
A running back in the first round seems like a farfetched idea for the 49ers in next year’s draft. Despite evidence that San Francisco wouldn’t go that route, ESPN’s Todd McShay has them selecting Ohio State running back JK Dobbins with the 31st overall pick in his latest mock draft.
McShay joins the Draft Wire’s Luke Easterling in sending a running back to San Francisco in the first round of their mocks. Easterling has Clemson’s Travis Etienne going at that spot.
McShay points to the 49ers’ long-term future at the position as the reason for the pick:
The Niners are No. 2 in the NFL in rushing and have used a plethora of backs to get there. But considering Matt Breida will be a free agent after San Francisco’s playoff bid, Tevin Coleman’s $0 in guaranteed money after this season and the high value Dobbins presents here, I like the idea of bringing in another versatile offensive weapon for Jimmy Garoppolo and padding a strength for this team. But don’t be surprised to see the 49ers trade out of the spot altogether with just six picks in the entire draft and only one before Day 3.
Dobbins could undoubtedly help the 49ers’ offense. He’s a sensational playmaker who’s done nothing but produce for very good Buckeyes teams the last three seasons. Dobbins is an extremely fluid mover who frequently makes defenders miss in space, but his 5-10, 217-pound frame gives him enough size to run them as well.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of his game for the 49ers and head coach Kyle Shanahan is his versatility. Dobbins has 4,285 yards and 37 touchdowns on 707 carries over the last three seasons. He’s averaging over 6.0 yards per attempt. Ohio State also utilizes him a lot as a receiver, too. The junior running back has 65 receptions for 598 yards and five touchdowns through the air in his three years.
There are a couple things McShay highlights though that run counter to the idea of the 49ers taking a running back with their top pick.
First, if San Francisco does hang on to their first-round pick and they don’t trade back, it’s hard to fathom they use that selection on a running back. They have too many other needs to address to use their only pick in the first four rounds on a running back.
The second thing ties into the first. Shanahan and running backs coach Bobby Turner have a history of getting top-end production at that position without spending premium draft capital.
San Francisco has four running backs on their roster. Three of them, Breida, Coleman and Raheem Mostert, have rushed for over 500 yards this season. The fourth, Jeff Wilson Jr., has five touchdowns on just 30 touches.
Of that group, Coleman is the only one who got drafted, and he was a third-round pick of the Falcons in 2015 – the year before Shanahan arrived in Atlanta.
While it’s true the 49ers may have a dramatically different group of running backs next season, the idea that they begin replenishing that group with a first-round pick seems counter to everything Shanahan has done in his three years in Santa Clara. In fact, the only draft pick they’ve used on a running back was a fourth-round selection on Utah’s Joe Williams. He never even made the practice squad and was waived after training camp in 2018.
The more likely scenario, in the event that the 49ers part ways with Breida and Coleman, is San Francisco addresses larger needs early in the draft, whether its in the first round or in a trade back. They may add a running back in the later rounds, but that will almost certainly be accompanied by multiple undrafted rookies at that spot. Given what we’ve seen out of Shanahan and the coaching staff – that should do just fine if the 49ers do need to replenish their running back depth.
