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No. 25 Michigan State is reeling, having lost three straight games and five of their last eight. The Spartans will be looking for a better road result as they travel to take on No. 22 Illinois in Champaign Tuesday night (9:00 ESPN). Michigan State is 1-4 in their last five road conference games, with the lone victory coming against Minnesota.
Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.
Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.
Overview
Michigan State: 16-8 overall, 8-5 Big Ten
-No. 10 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 19 in adjusted offense
-No. 17 in adjusted defense
-No. 101 in adjusted tempo
Illinois: 16-7 overall, 8-4 Big Ten
-No. 27 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 41 in adjusted offense
-No. 25 in adjusted defense
-No. 250 in adjusted tempo
This will be a matchup of two desperate teams. After being tied for the Big Ten lead just two weeks ago, Michigan State and Illinois have lost a combined five straight games. The Illii lost on the road against Iowa and dropped a massive contest at home to Maryland, which vaulted the Terps into the top spot in the Big Ten. If either team wants to keep their shot at the Big Ten alive, this is a must win. Illinois can’t afford to go two games back to Maryland and Michigan State with both of those teams holding tiebreakers over them. Michigan State can’t afford to lose another conference game if they want to crawl their way back into the regular season race. It should be a good game in an absolutely electric environment.
Let’s dive into some specifics.
A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 82 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 94 in turnover %, No. 35 in Oreb%, No. 192 in free throw rate
Illinois defense four factors: No. 55 eFG% against, No. 300 in turnover %, No. 51 in Oreb%, No. 18 in FTR
For the first time all season the Michigan State defense is ranked higher than the Michigan State offense in KenPom. The Spartan offense has been an absolute nightmare on the road, especially in the early part of games. Maybe they figured something out in the second half against Michigan? After scoring only 23 points in the first half, the Spartans scored 45 in the second half. We’ll see. The shooting numbers are certainly troubling as they’ve been in decline for a while and Illinois does a pretty good job in that spot defensively. MSU’s turnover issues plagued them early last week, but they cleaned that up after the first ten minutes against Michigan. They’ll absolutely have to protect the ball, especially considering Illinois does not force turnovers at a high rate. An underrated factor to MSU’s offensive decline has been the plummeting of their free throw rate and with Illinois being one of the best teams in the country at preventing opponents from getting to the line, it’s hard to imagine that changing in this game.
When Illinois has the ball
Illinois offensive four factors: No. 199 in eFG%, No. 148 in turnover %, No. 7 in Oreb%, No. 160 in FTR
Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 3 in eFG% against, No. 325 in turnover %, No. 61 in Oreb% against, No. 91 in FTR
One of these thiiiiings is not like the others.
Illinois is middling at three of the four factors on offense, but, as you can see, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They attack the glass as a team and have one of the best rebounders in the country in Kofi Cockburn. The Michigan State defense is going to do what it always does; play sound man defense and force tough shots that will lead to a lot of rebounds. If Michigan State wants to win Tuesday night, they absolutely cannot get crushed on the glass. It is, by far, Illinois’ biggest strength on offense. Michigan State is capable of having very good rebounding games, but the bigs are going to have to bring it and the guards are going to have to contribute as well. It has to be the number one concern going into this game for Michigan State.
Other key numbers
We always like to look at three-point shooting here and Illinois is quite bad at that. As a team they are 296th in the country in three-point percentage and 324th in 3PA/FGA. In short, they don’t take a ton of threes and they don’t make a ton of threes.
Trent Frazier is their best shooter by volume, shooting 36% on just fewer than five attempts per game. Alan Griffin is also coming on as a shooter. He shoots 39%, but on less consistent volume. Still, he’s liable to take seven threes and make four of them.
Illinois ranks 213th on assists per field goal made. I’d guess a lot of that comes from their offensive rebounding. They get a lot of buckets on putbacks. Outside of that, their highest usage player Ayo Dosunmu plays a fair amount of isolation ball.
Despite Dosunmu’s high volume (he takes 27% of the shots when he’s on the floor) he’s not a very good shooter. His effective field goal percentage is only 50.2% and he struggles from beyond the arc. Where he can be really effective is at the free throw line where he shoots 81%. He doesn’t get there too often–which I think is the best critique of his game–but he certainly has the talent to do it in a given night. Keeping him off the line and forcing tough jumpers will be key.
Illinois is pretty good at limiting opponents’ attempts from three. They rank 57th in that category. I like to look at attempts forced rather than percentages made when evaluating a team’s three-point defense. Sometimes teams get hot and make shots, but a truly good three-point defense limits the amount of threes their opponent takes. Deep shots may be tough to come by for the Spartans.
Conclusion
Illinois is a really good team and it’s hard to win in their building. Add in to that Michigan State’s massive road struggles and this one looks to be an uphill grind for the Spartans. They’re going to have to protect the ball and limit Illinois’ second-chance opportunities. The more they can force the Illini to shoot contested jumpers, the better this will go. This is a huge spot for both teams, which I have highlighted plenty, so I expect a really competitive game. Vegas likes MSU by one point in this one, which I’m sure feels bold for many Spartan fans. KenPom has this one as a 70-69 win for Illinois, at a 51% chance of victory.
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