Tag: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Royals odds predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Marlins (5-7) are set to conclude a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (4-7) on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

The Marlins defeated the Phillies 8-4 on Tuesday with 2B Luis Arraez becoming the first player in franchise history to hit for the cycle. Miami has lost 3 of its last 5 games.

The Phillies have gone 3-2 in their last 5 games after beginning the season with a 1-5 record. Philadelphia recently received good news with OF Bryce Harper getting cleared to hit, so he’ll just need to be cleared to slide before he returns to the field following elbow surgery in the offseason.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Cabrera (0-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 2.25 WHIP, 17.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 6 2/3 IP.

  • Has walked a league-high 13 batters in his first 2 starts of the season
  • Career starts vs. Phillies: 1-1 record with a 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9 in 11 IP over 2 starts

Wheeler (0-1, 5.59 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 through 9 2/3 IP.

  • Has tallied a 10-4 record with a 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9 in 123 1/3 IP in 19 career starts vs. Marlins
  • Has thrown 90-plus pitches in each of his first 2 starts of the season but has yet to go longer than 5 1/3 IP

Marlins at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-125) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Phillies (-190) are favored to win with Wheeler on the mound, but he’s struggled to begin the season. Taking Philadelphia at the current odds is not worth the risk.

Run line/Against the spread

MARLINS +1.5 (-125) is the pick in this NL East showdown. Cabrera has struggled with walks, but Wheeler hasn’t looked like his usual self either in his first 2 starts.

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Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-105) is the lean in this matchup with how these teams are swinging the bat in this series. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these clubs and the Phillies are 4-0 to the Over in their last 4 games against a team from the NL East.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (19-23) and Philadelphia Phillies (22-21) split the first two games of a three-game set. They will finish off the series Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET in Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 51 IP over nine starts.

Alcantara had allowed 2 ER or less in four straight until his last outing when the Los Angeles Dodgers got to him for 8 ER in just 1 1/3 IP.

In three career starts at Citizens Bank Park, he has put up a 1.33 ERA and 18/7 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP.

RHP Vincent Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He has made eight appearances (five starts), and is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 in 29 1/3 IP.

Velasquez has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last three starts (all on solo HR), with a 19/8 K/BB in 17 IP in that span.

Dating back to 2019, in his last five starts against Miami, Velasquez has put up an ugly 11.94 ERA with five homers allowed in 17 1/3 innings.

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies have fared well at home this season, with a 14-7 record. But the Marlins have a slightly better run differential (+2 vs -4) and the clear pitching edge in this contest.

Velasquez has been extremely lucky, benefiting from both a .231 BAbip and 92.9% left-on-base percentage. His BB/9 is 5th highest in the league among starters, and it’s only a matter of time before his ERA shoots up. That may start tonight, so take the MARLINS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Velasquez has lowered his ERA by almost two runs from last year’s mark, but his skills aren’t any better. He’s walking more batters and allowing a lot of hard contact, leading to seven home runs against him in 25 1/3 IP in his last five starts.

Alcantara had a rough outing last time out, but his skills to this point are better than ever. There is value in MARLINS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

Miami should put some runs on the board in this one, but this is not an offense that has a lot of explosive games. This game is likely to end up right around the total, and the smart move is to PASS.

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