Tag: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds predictions pick betting line spread

The Miami Marlins (39-50) and Philadelphia Phillies (44-44) kick-off their second halves of the season with a seven-inning doubleheader Friday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Marlins lead 5-4.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s projected starter. Alcantara is 5-8 with a 3.09 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 across 19 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 6-1, with 4 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K July 8 vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
• Alcantara is 1-1 vs. the Marlins this year with 1.29 ERA (14 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 141 at-bats with a .248/.323/.397 slash line, 35/16 K/BB, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.

LHP Matt Moore is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Moore is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over six starts and six relief appearances.

• Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 1 K in Philadelphia’s 11-2 victory at the Boston Red Sox Saturday.
• Moore appeared in Philly’s 6-0 loss to Miami May 20 with a stat line of 2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .379/.400/.552 slash line, 7/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

• Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
• RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20.m. ET.

• Money line: Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 3, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-125) for a half unit because Miami is 17-29 on the road this season, 10-18 vs. lefty starters while ranking in the bottom-5 against left-handed pitching in advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K.

That being said, it’s only a seven-inning game, and Alcantara has good stuff. Alcantara ranks in the 75th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA, exit velocity, chase rate and barrel rate.

Also, Alcantara is 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park for his career with a 1.03 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB rate in four starts.

Furthermore, if this game goes sideways for either or both starters then Miami’s bullpen is far more reliable than Philly’s. The Marlins’ relievers are sixth in WAR, and the Phillies’ bullpen is 27th in WAR.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Miami has only covered two of its eight games as a road favorite this season, and the Marlins -1.5 (+145) isn’t a big enough payout considering their ATS record as a road favorite and this being a seven-inning game.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 6.5 (-110) for 1 unit because Moore has given up only four earned runs over 13 1/3 innings pitching in his last three starts, Alcantara has been dominant in Philly throughout his career, and the Under has cashed in four of the previous five Marlins-Phillies meetings.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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The Miami Marlins (34-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) have split the first two games of their three-game series and will finish up Thursday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 4-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 91 IP over 16 starts.

Lopez has stepped up his game lately posting a 2.57 ERA and 48/6 K/BB in 42 IP across his last seven starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 90 IP over 15 starts.

Eflin has faced the Marlins twice so far this season, allowing 5 ER in 12 IP with a 12/2 K/BB. He’s had home run issues on the road, but in six starts at home has put up a 2.13 ERA with a 37/3 K/BB and 3 homers allowed in 38 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

• Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
• RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are up on the Marlins by 3.5 games in the standings but the Marlins are far superior in run differential (+21 vs. -24). Given how well Lopez has pitched lately they also look to have the slight pitching edge in this matchup. Back the MARLINS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by two or fewer runs and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, there doesn’t appear to be enough value to take +1.5 runs with either the Marlins (-210) or Phillies (-210). It’s probably best to just PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night as the Marlins won 11-6. That was the second time in the last five games they had put up 11 runs.

With two solid pitchers taking the mound Thursday another shootout seems unlikely but neither offense is likely to be completely shut down. The final score should end up pretty close to this total but look for OVER 8 (-105) to hit in the end.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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The Miami Marlins (34-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) have split the first two games of their three-game series and will finish up Thursday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 4-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 91 IP over 16 starts.

Lopez has stepped up his game lately posting a 2.57 ERA and 48/6 K/BB in 42 IP across his last seven starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 90 IP over 15 starts.

Eflin has faced the Marlins twice so far this season, allowing 5 ER in 12 IP with a 12/2 K/BB. He’s had home run issues on the road, but in six starts at home has put up a 2.13 ERA with a 37/3 K/BB and 3 homers allowed in 38 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

• Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
• RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are up on the Marlins by 3.5 games in the standings but the Marlins are far superior in run differential (+21 vs. -24). Given how well Lopez has pitched lately they also look to have the slight pitching edge in this matchup. Back the MARLINS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by two or fewer runs and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, there doesn’t appear to be enough value to take +1.5 runs with either the Marlins (-210) or Phillies (-210). It’s probably best to just PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night as the Marlins won 11-6. That was the second time in the last five games they had put up 11 runs.

With two solid pitchers taking the mound Thursday another shootout seems unlikely but neither offense is likely to be completely shut down. The final score should end up pretty close to this total but look for OVER 8 (-105) to hit in the end.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Miami Marlins (33-44) travel to the City of Brotherly Love Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (36-40) at Citizens Bank Park. Game 1’s first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Marlins lead 4-3.

LHP Trevor Rogers is on the hill for the Marlins. Rogers is 7-4 with a 2.08 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 15 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Wednesday vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
• Rogers is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate in two starts vs. the Phillies this season.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 60 at-bats with a .283/.348/.500 slash line, 17/5 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Vince Velasquez is Philly’s projected starter. Velasquez is 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA (57 IP, 30 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 11 starts and four relief appearances.

• Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Philly’s 13-12 loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
• Velasquez picked up a win earlier this season vs. the Phillies (May 25) with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K in a 2-0 victory.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 104 at-bats with a .308/.385/.452 slash line, 31/11 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

• Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
• RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:29 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the MARLINS (-120) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup and these lineups are neck-and-neck in WAR this month.

Rogers has better basic pitching numbers vs. Philly this season than Velasquez does against Miami. In Rogers’ two starts vs. the Phillies this season, he had a 60.0% groundball rate and a 26.7% hard-hit rate.

Velasquez had a very fortunate .231 BAbip in his first start against the Marlins this season as it was his fourth-lowest swinging-strike rate and third-worst contact rate of any outing this year.

Velasquez grades in the 36th percentile of hard-hit rate, 20th percentile in exit velocity, eighth percentile in chase rate, 11th percentile in BB% and 31st percentile in expected wOBA.

Moreover, Velasquez hasn’t pitched past the 6th inning in any start this season and Philly’s bullpen has the third-worst WAR in the MLB and by far the most blown saves.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Philly has the best run line record as a home underdog (10-2 ATS) with a plus-1.8 run line margin and Miami is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.4 run line margin.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a quarter unit only because I prefer Miami outright than the total in Marlins-Phillies.

However, both starters have solid pitching peripherals vs. their respective opponents, the Under has cashed in five of the past six Marlins-Phillies meetings and these teams have a combined 11-15 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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