The Miami Marlins (39-50) and Philadelphia Phillies (44-44) kick-off their second halves of the season with a seven-inning doubleheader Friday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Marlins lead 5-4.
RHP Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s projected starter. Alcantara is 5-8 with a 3.09 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 across 19 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-1, with 4 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K July 8 vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Alcantara is 1-1 vs. the Marlins this year with 1.29 ERA (14 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 141 at-bats with a .248/.323/.397 slash line, 35/16 K/BB, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.
LHP Matt Moore is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Moore is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over six starts and six relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 1 K in Philadelphia’s 11-2 victory at the Boston Red Sox Saturday.
- Moore appeared in Philly’s 6-0 loss to Miami May 20 with a stat line of 2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .379/.400/.552 slash line, 7/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.
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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Marlins 3, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-125) for a half unit because Miami is 17-29 on the road this season, 10-18 vs. lefty starters while ranking in the bottom-5 against left-handed pitching in advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K.
That being said, it’s only a seven-inning game, and Alcantara has good stuff. Alcantara ranks in the 75th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA, exit velocity, chase rate and barrel rate.
Also, Alcantara is 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park for his career with a 1.03 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB rate in four starts.
Furthermore, if this game goes sideways for either or both starters then Miami’s bullpen is far more reliable than Philly’s. The Marlins’ relievers are sixth in WAR, and the Phillies’ bullpen is 27th in WAR.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Miami has only covered two of its eight games as a road favorite this season, and the Marlins -1.5 (+145) isn’t a big enough payout considering their ATS record as a road favorite and this being a seven-inning game.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 6.5 (-110) for 1 unit because Moore has given up only four earned runs over 13 1/3 innings pitching in his last three starts, Alcantara has been dominant in Philly throughout his career, and the Under has cashed in four of the previous five Marlins-Phillies meetings.
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