Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds predictions pick betting line spread – Page 2

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (55-80) and Philadelphia Phillies (75-61) cap off a 3-game series Thursday with a 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 10-5

The Marlins have dropped the first 2 games of this series and have lost 9 straight games overall. Miami owns a whiff-heavy .499 OPS over that stretch. The Fish are just 7-23 since Aug. 5.

The Phillies are 16-5 over their last 21 games at Citizens Bank Park. A club that has mostly struggled all season in 1-run games has won games this series by scores of 3-2 and 4-3.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Alcantara (12-7, 2.36 ERA) is lined up for his 28th start of the season. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 190 2/3 IP.

ERA and WHIP figures are would-be career bests
Has gone 7 or more innings in 3 straight starts against Philadelphia
Has held current Phillies to an aggregate .704 OPS
Owns a 3.96 ERA ERA in the 2nd half and has been a better 1st-half pitcher over his career (2.76 ERA 1st half vs. 3.74 ERA 2nd half)

Gibson (9-6, 4.48 ERA) owns a 1.25 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 140 2/3 IP across 26 starts.

Allowed 7 runs in 1 2/3 IP in his last start (Friday at the San Francisco Giants), but has still registered a 3.92 ERA over his last 7 starts
Current Miami bats own a high-contact .780 OPS against him

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:34 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 3

Money line

Gibson has faltered in 2 of his last 3 starts, and with Miami’s numbers against him, he is too risky at this price.

Look for Alcantara to rebound after two high-pitch count games which fed into his misstep last outing (6 R allowed in 5 IP against the Atlanta Braves Friday).

Recognizing the depths of the Miami slump, consider a partial-unit play on the MARLINS (+115).

Run line/Against the spread

Too much juice to overcome: PASS.

Over/Under

Indicators swing both ways, pointing to some leverage north and south of the 7-7.5-run range. With that kind of equilibrium, a PASS is recommended.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (55-79) and Philadelphia Phillies (74-61) continue a 3-game series Wednesday with a 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 9-5

The Marlins have lost 8 straight games. Miami owns a whiff-heavy .479 OPS over that stretch. The Fish are just 7-22 since Aug. 5.

The Phillies had struggled with their pitching recently, but the home nine engineered a 3-2 victory in the Tuesday opener of this series. Peg the venue as being key: the Phils are 15-5 over their last 20 games at Citizens Bank Park.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. LHP Bailey Falter

Rogers (4-10, 5.57 ERA) has made 20 starts this season. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 93 2/3 IP.

Owns a walk-heavy 8.02 ERA over his last 5 starts against Philadelphia
Has a 4.79 ERA on the road

Falter (3-3, 4.08 ERA) has appeared in 14 games this season (10 as a starter). He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 57 1/3 IP.

Has given the Phillies 6 or more IP in each of his last 4 starts; owns a 2.59 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over that stretch
Exited his last start (Aug. 31) with a right groin injury
Facing a Marlins lineup that figures to tilt far to the right. The 25-year-old southpaw has allowed an .868 OPS against righty bats (left-handers own a .672 OPS).

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:36 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 3

Money line

Rogers is a 24-year-old who logged a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP a year ago. He’s been undone in part by a .333 batting average on balls in play in 2022. The Miami lefty carries some risk because he’s making his 2nd start off the IL (back). However, he flashed good command and bat-missing with his ground-ball-inducing stuff in his Aug. 31 return.

Going against the grain of a streak isn’t normally enticing, but MIAMI (+135) is worth some partial-unit action as a value play.

Run line/Against the spread

MIAMI +1.5 (-155) is a solid play. The Marlins bullpen is in better shape than that of the Phillies.

The average MLB club has played in 36 1-run games this season, but the Fish have toiled in 52.

Over/Under

Indicators in various cross-sections of this game point both ways. With that kind of equilibrium, a PASS is the best course.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (55-78) and Philadelphia Phillies (73-61) open a 3-game series Tuesday at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 8-5

The Marlins have lost 7 straight games. Miami owns a whiff-heavy .468 OPS over that stretch. The Fish are just 7-21 since Aug. 5.

The Phillies have pitched their way to 6 losses in their last 7 games. Philadelphia hurlers own a Boeing 7.51 ERA over that stretch.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Luzardo (3-6, 3.44 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 65 1/3 IP.

Has allowed just 3 ER in his last 20 1/3 IP on the road; owns a 2.54 ERA in 39 road IP
Has pitched 6 innings or more in 3 of his last 4 starts

Nola (9-11, 3.43 ERA) has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 170 2/3 IP in 26 starts.

Stumbled and allowed 8 R in his last outing; owns a 4.30 ERA in his last 7 starts
Has a 2.73 ERA in his last 5 starts against Miami

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:34 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Phillies -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-125) | Phillies -1.5 (+102)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 2

Money line

Philadelphia is swung around to its best platoon numbers against left-handers. Nola is backed by a rested bullpen and has excellent numbers against this Miami club.

Its takes a certain bankroll to leverage plays that are minus-200-something. But that does not mean leverage can’t be found. PASS on the current tag, but consider the Phillies as a price of -220 or better.

Run line/Against the spread

The Under is likely the best play here, so normally that does not jibe with run-line favorite at home. But the price here is enticing: consider a partial-unit play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+102).

Over/Under

Likable starters. Rested bullpens. Philly has averaged 5.33 runs per game over its last couple homestands, but the Phils are at home for an opener after a road trip. That has been cause for more than a few flat efforts the last few months.

BET THE UNDER 6.5 (+100).

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (49-61) and Philadelphia Phillies (62-48) meet Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET to cap off a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 8-4

The Marlins have dropped a pair of pitchers’ duels in this series, and that’s nothing new. Miami is 2-9 with an anemic .573 OPS over its last 11 games.

The Phillies remain on a roll. Philadelphia has won 7 straight games and 12 of its last 13. The bats have been solid, but Phillies pitching has also been along for the ride in this surge. The club owns a 2.75 ERA over its last 7 home games.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Cabrera (2-1, 2.61 ERA) has registered a 1.07 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 20 2/3 IP across 4 starts.

Came off the IL (elbow) before his last start Friday at Chicago Cubs and tossed 5 no-hit innings against the Cubs with 3 walks and 8 strikeouts.
Owns a 4.40 ERA and 9.8 K/9 through 11 MLB starts.

Gibson (7-4, 4.36 ERA) is making his 22nd start this season. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 115 2/3 IP.

Has allowed 2 runs over 14 IP across his last 2 starts vs. Miami.
Owns a 4.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:21 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Phillies -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 3

Money line

Cabrera has benefited from a .174 batting average on balls in play and some fatigue in his 2nd game off the IL would not be a surprise here. That adds to a Philly lean, but PASS on a price more than -170.

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Run line/Against the spread

Solid value here: PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+120) is a strong play.

This play is put into profit territory with the leverage created by the way these offenses have been going, the way the Phils bullpen has pitched of late (much better than their 4.84 surface ERA in the last 30 days) and the way Gibson has held the Fish in check twice in the last 2 months.

Philadelphia has outscored Miami 27-6 in winning 6 straight against the Marlins since June 15.

Over/Under

AVOID: the starters and offenses have indicators moving the needle back and forth. It all spells an average of an 8.5 run total, so there is no value here.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (49-60) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (61-48) Wednesday for the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami is just 2-8 in the last 10 games and lost Tuesday’s series opener to Philly 4-1.

The Phillies have won 9 of their last 10 games, including 5 straight. They’re 2nd in the NL wild card race.

Season series: The Phillies lead 7-4

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard

Alcantara is 10-4 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 158 1/3 IP across 22 starts.

Last start: Won 3-0 at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds Aug. 3 with a complete-game shutout, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K
2022 vs. the Phillies: 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA (22 IP, 6 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 3 starts

Syndergaard is 6-8 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 85 IP over 16 starts.

Last start: Won 5-4 at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 5 IP, 4 ER, 11 H, 0 BB and 2 K in a rain-shortened game
This is Syndergaard’s 2nd start for the Phillies since being acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline.
2022 vs. the Marlins: 1 start, a 2-1 loss July 5 in Miami while pitching for L.A. with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 8 K.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-205) | Phillies -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 2

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (-130) because most of the public will be on the Marlins (+105) at a plus-number with Alcantara on the hill.

Also, Syndergaard’s stuff has been solid this season and he’ll be rejuvenated to be in the playoff hunt after leaving L.A.

Furthermore, Philly is on-fire recently and tied for 3rd in wRC+, 2nd in wOBA and has hit the most home runs in MLB over the last 2 weeks, per FanGraphs.

The PHILLIES (-130) is my favorite look in this game.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN PHILLIES -1.5 (+165) because this is a juicy payout and 6 of their last 7 wins have been by at least 2 runs.

However, the Marlins +1.5 (-205) are 28-16 RL as road underdogs and the Phillies are 22-25 RL as home favorites. Also, Alcantara is 5-1 RL in his Marlins career at Citizens Bank Park.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-135) because Alcantara is the odds on favorite to win the 2022 NL Cy Young award and the Marlins are 8-13-1 O/U in Alcantara starts and 1-5 O/U when Alcantara visits Philly.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (49-59) and Philadelphia Phillies (60-48) meet Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 6-4

The Marlins continue a road trip that opened by losing 2 of 3 games against the Chicago Cubs. Miami is 2-7 with an anemic .558 OPS over its last 9 games.

The Phillies are rolling. Philadelphia has won 5 straight games and 10 of its last 11. The Phils have banged out an .865 OPS over that span, and 4 of their last 6 wins have been by 5 runs or more.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Garrett (2-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has notched a 1.16 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 58 IP.

Has clocked a 5.06 ERA over 53 1/3 career innings on the road.
Coming off a season-high 104 pitches in his last turn.
The Phillies rank 6th in MLB with a .767 OPS versus lefty pitching.

Wheeler (10-5, 2.69 ERA) has authored a 1.01 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 120 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

Blasted by the Marlins on April 17 for 7 ER on 8 H and 3 BB in 3 IP.
Has authored a sparkling 1.02 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over his last 53 IP at home and owns a 2.17 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at Citizens since 2020.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Phillies -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-115) | Phillies -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 3

Money line

AVOID: The price on Philly isn’t that out of whack, but the Run Line offers excellent leverage.

Run line/Against the spread

Lots of value here; move fast. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-105) is a strong play.

With the way these two offenses have been going, the way Wheeler dominates at home, the way Garrett has scuffled on the road, and with the Miami lefty coming off a season-high pitch count, there is more than enough leverage on a multi-run win for the home nine — even in a low-scoring game.

Over/Under

Some under-the-radar pitching signals point to an Under here. However, on a warm and humid evening at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, and with the lefty-righty pitching matchup swinging both clubs around to their best platoon figures, a PASS is recommended.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (31-30) host the Miami Marlins (27-32) Tuesday for the 2nd of their 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies won the series opener 3-2 Monday thanks to 1B Rhys Hoskins‘ walk-off RBI double and a quality start by RHP Aaron Nola (7 IP, 2 ER, 6H, 0 BB and 6 K).

Season series: Miami leads 3-2 with a plus-7 run differential in the 5 games.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Rogers is 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 50 IP across 11 starts.

Last start: Won 7-4 Thursday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 10-3 home loss April 16 with 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.

Eflin is 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 55 IP across 10 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 8-3 win Thursday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
2022 vs. the Marlins: One start, a 7-1 loss in Miami April 15 with 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 3

Money line

BET a half-unit on the MARLINS (+125).

There’s reverse line movement headed toward Miami in the betting market as more than 85% of the cash at Tipico Sportsbook is on the Phillies (-155), but their ML has shrunk from a -160 opener. This is suspicious because oddsmakers typically move the line according to the betting splits.

Miami’s lineup is slightly more productive vs. right-handed pitching (5.04 runs per 9) than Philly’s is against left-handed pitching (4.86 runs per 9).

Rogers’ road ERA is 5.51 runs lower than his home ERA (8.85-3.34) and Eflin has a 5.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP when pitching on 4 days rest.

Also, Miami’s bullpen ranks 10th in xFIP with significantly better contact and swing-and-miss rates than Philly’s, which ranks 23rd in xFIP (4.17), per FanGraphs.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN MARLINS +1.5 (-170).

The Phillies -1.5 (+135) are 13-17 RL as home favorites and 7-14 RL in NL East games. Miami is 17-6 RL as road underdogs, which includes a RL cover in the series opener with Philly.

It’s only a LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-170) because of the price and my favorite look in this game is Miami’s ML.

Over/Under

PASS.

These teams have a combined 14-7 O/U record when these starters get the nod and Monday’s Marlins-Phillies went Under the total so Tuesday’s meeting could ping-pong Over the total.

But Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB, aka is the most pitcher-friendly, Eflin’s pitching peripherals are outstanding and Rogers has elite stuff and will find his groove eventually.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (27-31) start a 3-game set with NL East co-tenant Philadelphia Phillies (30-30) Monday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 2-1 series win at the Houston Astros last weekend, a 3-game sweep at home of the Washington Nationals and a 4-game series split at home vs. the San Francisco Giants before that.

Philly is 9-1 SU over the last 10, but had its 9-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 13-1 blowout loss at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Since firing Joe Girardi as manager June 3, the Phillies are 8-1 SU.

Season series: Miami leads 3-1 with a plus-8 run differential.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Alcantara is 6-2 with a 1.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 2-1 extra-inning home win June 8 vs. the Nationals with 9 scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 4-3 home win April 14 with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.

Nola is 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 74 2/3 IP across 12 starts.

Last start: Won 10-0 Wednesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 8 scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
2021 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 17 K in 2 starts.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:41 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 2

Money line

BET the MARLINS (+110).

Miami has a 3-phase edge over the Phillies (-135) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market with the presumed sharp side of the market backing the Marlins.

Alcantara grades higher in most advanced pitching metrics and has a 0.85 ERA in his last 7 starts while Nola has a 3.26 ERA in his last 7 starts. Miami’s bullpen is better than Philly’s in xFIP (4.19-3.76) and K/BB rate (2.64-2.08), per FanGraphs.

Also, Miami’s lineup ranks ahead of Philly’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (115-104), wOBA (.328-.321) and BB/K rate (0.38-0.31), according to FanGraphs.

Finally, nearly 80% of the cash is on the Marlins but roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Phillies, per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is the one to follow.

BET the MARLINS (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Marlins +1.5 (-190) is just too pricey even though Miami is 16-6 RL as road underdogs and the Phillies -1.5 (+155) are 13-16 RL as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

Both teams have their ace on the mound Monday, Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB (aka the most pitcher-friendly) and the Marlins are 4-7 O/U in Alcantara’s 11 starts.

But, Marlins-Phillies is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 meetings, Philly is 7-4-1 O/U in Nola’s 11 starts and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total. Most of the action is on the Under, but the line has ticked down from an 8-run opener, according to Pregame.com.

This RLM is suspicious hence the LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) play the finale of a three-game set Sunday at Citizens Bank Park following the completion of Saturday’s suspended game. First pitch is tenatively scheduled for 2:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Saturday’s action is set to resume at 1:05 p.m. ET as play was suspended in the 10th inning due to rain with things squared up 2-2. Sunday’s action is set to start 20-40 minutes following the completion of Saturday’s game.

LHP Braxton Garrett is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.77 WHIP with 8 K and 5 BB over 11 1/3 IP across two starts and one relief appearance.

Garrett last started June 14 at St. Louis. The lefty hurled 4 1/3 IP allowing 2 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 3 K taking a no-decision in the Marlins’ 4-2 loss.

RHP Zach Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 6-5 with a 2.26 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 across 119 2/3 IP in 18 starts.

Wheeler had a rare poor outing last time out July 7 at the Chicago Cubs, yielding 7 runs (4 earned) across 5 2/3 IP. His ERA shot up from 2.05 to 2.26 as a result.

Wheeler faced the Marlins May 18 at “The Bank”, allowing 1 unearned run, 5 hits and no walks with 10 strikeouts across 7 innings in a no-decision.

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:24 p.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-110) | Phillies -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies (-225) are a little expensive with Wheeler on the bump. He handled the Marlins in a rather impressive fashion in his previous start against them this season.

AVOID, and play the run line as a more affordable alternative.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PHILLIES -1.5 (-110) are a better play on the run line. Miami will have a hard time getting the bats going against Wheeler just like they did back in May, and Philly should grab some runs against the Marlins hurlers.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8 (-115) is the lean here, despite that we should get some good pitching from Wheeler. Pitchers will be contending with a 10-13 mph wind blowing out to the power alley in right-center field. It won’t go Over by much, but it should inch across the finish line late.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) continue their four-game series Saturday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 3’s first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Friday to open the series with the Phillies winning the first game 5-2, and Miami took the second 7-0.

Season series: Marlins lead 6-5.

RHP Zach Thompson is on the hill for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 across five starts in his rookie season.

Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 8-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves July 4.
2021 road splits: 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 5 BB and 14 K in three starts.

RHP Vince Velasquez is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Velasquez is 3-4 with a 5.35 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 14 starts and four relief appearances.

Last outing: Loss, 11-5, with 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 2 K at the Boston Red Sox July 9.
Velasquez is 2-0 against Miami this season with 0.00 ERA, 13 IP, 5 H, 3 BB and 12 K in two starts.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 125 at-bats with a .280/.353/.400 slash line, 35/12 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 7, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-105) for a half unit since Miami’s bullpen is significantly better than Philly’s.

For example, Marlins relievers allow the fewest home runs per nine innings and are sixth in WAR while the Phillies’ bullpen has the most blown saves and ranks 27th in WAR.

However, their lineups are equally below average vs. right-handed pitching, and the starting pitching matchup is a toss-up.

Velasquez pitched very well in his first two outings against the Marlins but he has a 6.89 ERA over his last seven starts, which includes a seven-inning scoreless effort June 29 vs. Miami.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t “like” Miami enough to lay it with the Marlins -1.5 (+145), and Miami is 2-7 ATS this season as a road favorite with a minus-2.6 run line margin; whereas Philly has an MLB-high 82.2% cover rate as a home dog (13-3 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-105) for a half unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the “sharps” have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener with all their Over action.

Furthermore, the Marlins have played to the Over in four straight, and the Phillies have gone Over the total in their last six against teams with a losing record.

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