Tag: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadephia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (33-45) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (37-40) match up Wednesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jordan Holloway is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Holloway has 14 K and 10 BB in 17 2/3 IP over two starts and six relief appearances.

In Holloway’s two starts, he has pitched a total of just 6 2/3 IP, allowing 5 ER along with an uninspiring 3/7 K/BB.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 90 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

Nola had his worst outing of the season two starts ago when he allowed 6 ER in 2 1/3 IP at San Francisco. He rebounded last time out, striking out 12 in 5 1/3 scoreless frames Friday against the Mets.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-110) | home -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are 22-14 at home this year, while the Marlins have struggled to the tune of a 15-27 record on the road. Nola gives Philadelphia a clear pitching edge but it’s probably best to PASS on this line and find value elsewhere.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Holloway has been extremely lucky to post such a low ERA to this point. He had serious control issues in the minors in 2019 (6.3 BB/9) and it doesn’t appear he’s solved them. He has been bailed out so far by a .224 BABIP and no homers allowed.

The Philadelphia bats should have a big day against Holloway and come out on top by at least two runs. Back the PHILLIES -1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Holloway’s weak skills suggest he is a poor bet to hold the Philadelphia offense in check. On the other side, Nola’s 3.97 ERA represents his highest mark since he posted a 4.78 ERA back in 2016.

Nola does get to face an offense that ranks 25th in runs per game on the road. However, the right-hander has been pretty inconsistent lately having allowed 4 or more ER in four of his last nine starts. The Phillies will get most of the job done, but Miami should also do their part in pushing this total OVER 8.5 (-105).

 

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (33-44) travel to the City of Brotherly Love Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (36-40) at Citizens Bank Park. Game 1’s first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Marlins lead 4-3.

LHP Trevor Rogers is on the hill for the Marlins. Rogers is 7-4 with a 2.08 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 15 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Wednesday vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • Rogers is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate in two starts vs. the Phillies this season.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 60 at-bats with a .283/.348/.500 slash line, 17/5 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Vince Velasquez is Philly’s projected starter. Velasquez is 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA (57 IP, 30 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 11 starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Philly’s 13-12 loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
  • Velasquez picked up a win earlier this season vs. the Phillies (May 25) with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K in a 2-0 victory.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 104 at-bats with a .308/.385/.452 slash line, 31/11 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:29 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the MARLINS (-120) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup and these lineups are neck-and-neck in WAR this month.

Rogers has better basic pitching numbers vs. Philly this season than Velasquez does against Miami. In Rogers’ two starts vs. the Phillies this season, he had a 60.0% groundball rate and a 26.7% hard-hit rate.

Velasquez had a very fortunate .231 BAbip in his first start against the Marlins this season as it was his fourth-lowest swinging-strike rate and third-worst contact rate of any outing this year.

Velasquez grades in the 36th percentile of hard-hit rate, 20th percentile in exit velocity, eighth percentile in chase rate, 11th percentile in BB% and 31st percentile in expected wOBA.

Moreover, Velasquez hasn’t pitched past the 6th inning in any start this season and Philly’s bullpen has the third-worst WAR in the MLB and by far the most blown saves.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Philly has the best run line record as a home underdog (10-2 ATS) with a plus-1.8 run line margin and Miami is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.4 run line margin.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a quarter unit only because I prefer Miami outright than the total in Marlins-Phillies.

However, both starters have solid pitching peripherals vs. their respective opponents, the Under has cashed in five of the past six Marlins-Phillies meetings and these teams have a combined 11-15 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (21-20) host the Miami Marlins (18-22) Tuesday to start a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first regular-season matchup between the Marlins and Phillies. Miami won last year’s season series 7-3 en route to an NL Wild Card berth.

Miami is yet to announce an official starter but BetMGM has RHP Cody Poteet as the Marlins’ projected starter.

Poteet made his MLB debut in a start against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. He picked up a win in 5 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.

RHP Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 8 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Philly’s 5-2 win at the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Marlins: 8-3 with a 1.87 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 across 15 starts.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 72 at-bats with a .194/.259/.333 slash line, 32/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-165) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Philly’s First 5 Innings price is 10 cents on the dollar cheapbaseballsavant.mlb.com/…/zack-wheeler-554430er than its full-game price and Wheeler has pitched like an ace since joining Philly last season.

Wheeler has a 3.54 FIP, an opponent’s .253 wOBA and .339 expected slugging percentage vs. current Marlins hitters. On the season, Wheeler grades in the 80th percentile of expected wOBA, 79th percentile in barrel% and 76th percentile of expected slugging percentage.

He logged a quality start in four of his past six outings and has beaten the Marlins in four of his last five starts against them with the only loss an 8-inning, 10-strikeout performance in 2019 (with the New York Mets).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+120) for a quarter unit because Philly’s bullpen has been mediocre, which is an improvement on its dreadful 2020 campaign but Wheeler eats up innings.

Also, since the Phillies had an off-day Monday, their bullpen should be rested and their better relievers available for work Tuesday.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for one-third of a unit because despite Philly’s mashers, the lineup is below-average in several advanced hitting categories. Philadelphia is also 3-5 O/U in Wheeler starts and the Under cashed in each of Miami’s last five games against a right-handed starter.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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