Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets odds predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (82-76) and the New York Mets (72-86) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Citi Field after splitting a doubleheader Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 8-4

The Marlins were pounded 11-2 in the doubleheader opener on Wednesday afternoon, while Miami picked up a much-needed 4-2 victory in the nightcap behind RHP Johnny Cueto and a solid effort by the bullpen.

Miami is now tied with the Chicago Cubs for the 3rd and final NL Wild Card spot with just 4 games remaining in the regular season. The Marlins wind up the season in Pittsburgh for 3 games, while Chicago finishes in Milwaukee.

The San Diego Padres are mathematically still alive, too, 3 1/2 games back of the 2 combatants, but it has just 3 games left, essentially needing Chicago and Miami to lose all remaining games, while San Diego has to win out.

The Marlins are just 4-4 in the past 8 games overall, with the Over going 4-1-1 in the previous 6 contests.

The Mets have been a major thorn in the side of the Marlins, going 3-2 in 5 meetings since Sept. 18. New York is just 1-5 in the past 6 games overall, with a slight lean to the Over by a 3-2-1 margin during the 6-game span.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP David Peterson

Luzardo (10-9, 3.73 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 171 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
2023 road splits: 5-5, 4.86 ERA (63 IP, 34 ER), 11 HR, .287 OBA in 12 starts

Peterson (3-8, 5.37 ERA) makes his 21st start and 27th overall appearance. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 104 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-4 road loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Thursday
2023 home splits: 2-2, 3.18 ERA (51 IP, 18 ER), 5 HR, .255 OBA in 9 starts and 4 relief appearances

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:06 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

The METS (+110) might not be going to the postseason, similar to the crosstown New York Yankees, but they have certainly relished the role of spoiler down the stretch. New York has been a thorn in the side of Miami, and should the Marlins (-135) fail to make the postseason, the struggles against the sub-.500 Mets will be a major reason why.

We’ll get another battle of southpaws, similar to Game 1 of Wednesday’s doubleheader. That game went to the Mets, and the series finale should also go to the home side, which will be a major blow to Miami.

Run line/Against the spread

The METS +1.5 (-160) aren’t priced out of line if you just can’t bring yourself to take New York straight up, but feel this will be a tight game.

As an underdog on the run line, New York is 7-2, winning 3 of those games outright. While the Mets have been long-since eliminated from the postseason chase, they continue to fight hard, and have not waved the white flag.

Over/Under

The OVER 8 (-105) is the slight lean. We saw the Over cash in Game 1 in a battle of left-handed starters on Wednesday, and that was despite a jetstream blowing into the faces of the batters from straightaway center field.

We’ll get another strong breeze blowing 8-11 mph from right-center field to home plate, but that didn’t matter Wednesday, and it won’t matter Thursday, either.

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Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (81-75) and the New York Mets (71-85) begin a 3-game series Wednesday at Citi Field, after Tuesday’s series opener was postponed. First pitch for Game 1 of a day-night doubleheader is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 7-3

The good news for the Marlins as Tuesday’s series opener at Citi Field was washed out was that the Chicago Cubs lost Tuesday, so Miami climbed to just a half-game back. The Cincinnati Reds are breathing down the necks of the Marlins, sitting just a game behind, although Miami has 2 games in hand on Cincinnati. The Arizona Diamondbacks won Tuesday, and are 1 1/2 games clear of the Marlins in the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Miami picked up 2 crucial wins in a 3-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and it is a respectable 6-3 in the past 9 games overall. Of course, 2 of those 3 losses came at home against the Mets Sept. 18-20 in South Florida.

New York enters on a 4-game skid, after getting swept in Philadelphia over the weekend in a 4-game set. However, it is a surprising 7-3 against the Marlins this season. The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 outings for the Mets.

The weather forecast is much better for Wednesday, with partly cloudy conditions and nearly a 0% chance of precipitation. There will be a stiff northeast wind blowing 11-14 mph directly from center field to home plate, aiding pitchers.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi

Garrett (9-6, 3.53 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st overall appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 155 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home win vs. New York Mets Tuesday
2023 road splits: 6-2, 2.52 ERA (75 IP, 21 ER), 5 HR, .225 OBA in 14 starts

Lucchesi (3-0, 2.88 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-3 road loss vs. the Miami Marlins last Tuesday
2023 home splits: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 2 HR, .226 OBA in 3 starts

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:07 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Mets 2

Moneyline

The MARLINS (-130) are the play in Game 1 on Wednesday behind Garrett. I liked him for Tuesday’s game, but he never got a chance. He is 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA across 75 IP in 14 road assignments this season, and teams are hitting nearly 50 points lower against him on the road than in South Florida.

In addition, the sunshine should do him some good, and Braxton has managed a 2-0 record and sparkling 2.20 ERA in 9 daytime starts and 1 relief appearance over 49 IP this season.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS –1.5 (+125) are the play, but go lightly. Remember, Miami is just 3-7 in 10 meetings with New York this season, although the Mets +1.5 (-150) have looked rather disinterested over the past week, and are just playing out the string.

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-110) is a solid play. We get a couple of lefties throwing with a lot of confidence lately, and there will be a stiff wind blowing into the face of the batters, knocking down any potential long balls.

The Under is 3-1 in the previous 4 outings for Lucchesi, too, while the total has also gone low in 3 of the previous 4 assignments for Garrett, too. The biggest factor is that gusty wind blowing in, though.

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Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (81-75) and the New York Mets (71-85) begin a 3-game series Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 7-3

The Marlins took 2 of 3 games from the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend at loanDepot park to stay within a game of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs for one of the final 2 NL Wild Card spots, while staying 1 1/2 games clear of the Cincinnati Reds.

The Mets have long since been eliminated from postseason contention, sitting 14 games under .500. However, perhaps things could be different if New York had played Miami more. The Mets have won 7 of 10 meetings with the Marlins, including 2 of 3 in Miami last Monday-Wednesday.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi

Garrett (9-6, 3.53 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st overall appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 155 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home win vs. New York Mets Tuesday
2023 road splits: 6-2, 2.52 ERA (75 IP, 21 ER), 5 HR, .225 OBA in 14 starts

Lucchesi (3-0, 2.88 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-3 road loss vs. the Miami Marlins last Tuesday
2023 home splits: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 2 HR, .226 OBA in 3 starts

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Mets 2

Moneyline

The MARLINS (-130) are worth a look behind the southpaw Garrett, who was on the bump last Tuesday when Miami picked up a rare win against the Mets down in South Florida. The Fish are 3-1 in the past 4 starts with Garrett on the hill, and they’re 3-1 in the past 4 road assignments for Garrett, too.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS –1.5 (+135) are worth playing lightly on the run line, but it’s a risky play based on Miami’s struggles against N.Y. this season.

Still, the Mets have dropped 4 straight games, including 0-2 in the past 2 games as underdogs on the run line. New York has been pretty competitive lately, but the wheels might be coming off.

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-110) is worth a roll of the dice.

The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 starts for Lucchesi and Garrett and is 5-3-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series.

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Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Marlins (3-5) continue a 3-game series against the New York Mets (4-4) Saturday afternoon. First pitch at Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 4-1

The Marlins were trampled 9-3 in the series opener Friday in Queens. Miami fell behind 6-0 by the 7th inning and didn’t score its first runs until plating 3 in the top of the 8th. It trailed wire-to-wire, snapping a modest 2-game win streak.

The Mets slapped the brakes on a 3-game losing skid. New York is 4-1 against Miami but went 0-3 in its only other series which was on the road at the Milwaukee Brewers. It has outscored the Marlins 26-11 in the 5 games.

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Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Rogers (0-1, 6.23 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 R (3 ER) on 4 H and 2 BB with 4 K across 4 1/3 IP in a loss against the Mets on Sunday.

Last season on the road: 2-5, 5.00 ERA (54 IP, 30 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 46 K, .260 opponent batting average (OBA) in 12 starts
Last season during the day: 1-3, 4.68 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 38 K, .267 OBA in 9 starts

Senga (1-0, 1.69 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 3 BB with 8 K across 5 1/3 IP in his MLB debut vs. Miami Sunday.

Posted 13 first-pitch strikes against the 21 batters he faced in his debut while posting 1 wild pitch
Had 10 swinging strikes with 20 called strikes in his debut with 53 of his 88 pitches going for strikes

Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Mets -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 2

Moneyline

The METS (-155) are a solid value behind Senga at home. He baffled the Marlins in his MLB debut and should be able to do the same in his first home start for New York.

The Marlins have managed to win just 8 times in the past 28 meetings with the Mets and are 12-30 in their last 42 trips to Citi Field.

Run line/Against the spread

The METS -1.5 (+135) are also a solid value on the run line.

New York has won 4 of the 5 meetings to date, each coming by 2 or more runs. The Mets have covered the run line all 3 games they’ve been favorites vs. the Marlins this season. If you like the Mets straight up then you should like them on the run line too.

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Over/Under

OVER 7.5 (-115) is the lean.

The Over has hit in each of the past 4 games for the Mets. New York has posted 5 or more runs in 5 of its 8 games and it’s coughed up 29 total runs over the previous 4 contests.

The Over is 4-1 in the past 5 meetings between these clubs in New York and is 8-2-1 in the past 11 meetings overall in this series.

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Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (64-90) and New York Mets (97-58) wrap up a 2-game set Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 12-6

The Marlins have won 3 of their last 4 games after a 6-4 win at the Mets Tuesday as a +190 underdog. Miami started quickly with 2 runs in the 1st inning vs. Mets starter RHP Carlos Carrasco when CF Bryan De La Cruz hit a sacrifice fly and RF Brian Anderson scored on a wild pitch.

The Mets fell into a 1st-place tie with the Atlanta Braves in the NL East after Tuesday’s loss. Carrasco allowed 4 ER on 6 H with 2 K through 3 IP in the loss. New York 1B Pete Alonso became the first Met with two 40-HR seasons after hitting a 3-run HR in the 4th inning.

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Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Jesús Luzardo vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Luzardo (3-7, 3.57 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 88 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision vs. the Chicago Cubs last Wednesday with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 11 K
Only start vs. Mets this season: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 3 K on Sept. 11

Walker (12-5, 3.53 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 148 IP.

Last start: Lost Wednesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 3 K
2022 vs. Miami: 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 8 ER) in 5 starts

Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:37 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Marlins +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-140) | Mets -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 1

Money line

PASS.

Mets (-200) money line should hit, but there is better value on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (+115).

Don’t expect Miami to be competitive in this meeting since Walker has owned the Marlins in 2022. Miami’s upset win Tuesday also presents a good opportunity to fade them in a short 2-game series.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 6.5 (+110).

Walker’s dominance over Miami this season should help this game stay under the total. While Luzardo will give up a few runs to the Mets, it shouldn’t be enough to put the Under in danger.

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Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (39-41) begin a 4-game series at Citi Field Thursday with the New York Mets (51-31) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami had its 6-game winning streak snapped Wednesday in a 5-2 home loss to the Los Angeles Angels, but the Marlins are 7-3 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.

N.Y. won the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday, 8-3 in extra innings, and the Mets are just 5-5 SU in the last 10.

The Mets lead the season series with the Marlins 5-2, and N.Y. has a plus-12 run differential in those meetings.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Daniel Castano vs. RHP Trevor Williams

Castano is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 4 starts and 3 relief appearances.

Last start: Win 5-3 Saturday at the Washington Nationals with 5 IP, 3 R (1 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
2022 vs. the Mets: One start — a no-decision in Miami’s 3-2 home win June 26 — with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.

Williams is 1-5 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 8 relief appearances.

Last start: Loss 7-3 Saturday at home vs. the Texas Rangers with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
2021 vs. the Marlins: 0-0 with a 1.08 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 9 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 0 BB and 10 K.

Marlins at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 7, Marlins 3

Money line

LEAN METS (-175) as maybe a “flat-bet” only because I’m confident enough in the Mets to lay it with their RL.

But, N.Y. has a 3-phase edge over the Marlins (+140) in starting, relief pitching and hitting, and this is a much more profitable spot for N.Y.

The Mets are 5-1 SU as home favorites of -150 or greater vs. left-handed starters with a plus-23.1% return on investment (ROI) and an average score of 5.50-1.67.

On the other hand, the Marlins are 4-10 SU as road underdogs of +125 or more vs. right-handed starters with a minus-33.8% ROI and a minus-0.93 average margin of victory (5.36-4.43).

I’d rather take N.Y.’s RL otherwise “FLAT-BET” the METS (-175) risking 1 unit because of the price instead of betting to win 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (+120) because 4 of their 5 wins vs. the Marlins +1.5 (-145) have been by at least 2 runs, N.Y. is 18-16 RL and 23-10 RL vs. NL East foes. Also, the Mets are 4-2 RL as home favorites of -150 or greater vs. left-handed starters with a plus-33.1% ROI.

The METS -1.5 (+120) is my favorite look in this game.

Over/Under

PASS.

I “lean” to the Over 8.5 (-107) because nearly all the money in the market is on the Under 8.5 (-115) according to Pregame.com, and there’s value typically in fading lopsided markets in sports betting. However, the situational O/U trends don’t provide a clue, and N.Y.’s ML and RL are much better looks.

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Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (64-93) and New York Mets (75-82) play the third game of a four-game series Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Marlins RHP Elieser Hernandez (1-3, 4.24 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 46 2/3 IP.

Allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits (3 home runs) and 2 walks with 7 strikeouts over 4 innings against the Washington Nationals in his last start.
Has benefited from a .279 BABIP and 85.1% LOB rate.

Mets RHP Taijuan Walker (7-11, 4.57 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 151 2/3 IP.

Has recorded a 7.74 ERA across 12 starts in the second half of the season, in stark contrast to his 2.66 first-half ERA.
Allowed 19 earned runs and 8 home runs across his last 17 1/3 innings spanning four starts.

Marlins at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Mets 5, Marlins 4

Money line (ML)

Miami is encountering significant issues hitting the ball that perhaps not even a matchup against Walker will fully solve. The Marlins are last in wRC+, wOBA and OPS in September, while the Mets are in the middle of the pack in these metrics.

The likely scenario of neither starting pitcher going deep into the game favors the Mets as well. The Marlins bullpen has been among the league’s worst in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA over the last four weeks; Mets relievers, while not world-beaters, have logged much more respectable middle-of-the-pack numbers along that same span.

I retain some concerns about backing Walker and a team that has just three wins over their last 13 games too heavily, particularly with juice this high. However, the Marlins are an atrocious road team and the Mets, for all their second-half struggles, have one of the leagues’ better home records.

Take NEW YORK (-190).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

There is simply too much risk in backing Walker to hold the Marlins in check enough to back the Mets with any real faith on the run line. You could consider a value-based bet on the home side at plus money, but ultimately the safest move is to PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Despite how poor Miami has been at the plate in September this number remains too low with these starting pitchers on the mound.

Hernandez has given up 3 or more earned runs in three of his last four starts and has yet to complete 6 innings in any start this season. Walker sees the Marlins for the fourth time this year, twice as a starter and once in relief, and while two of those appearances came during his blistering first half he still owns a subpar 4.96 ERA over 16 1/3 innings against them.

There should be ample opportunity for these clubs to produce 8 or more runs Wednesday. OVER 7.5 (-102) is my play.

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