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The Miami Marlins (81-75) and the New York Mets (71-85) begin a 3-game series Wednesday at Citi Field, after Tuesday’s series opener was postponed. First pitch for Game 1 of a day-night doubleheader is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 7-3
The good news for the Marlins as Tuesday’s series opener at Citi Field was washed out was that the Chicago Cubs lost Tuesday, so Miami climbed to just a half-game back. The Cincinnati Reds are breathing down the necks of the Marlins, sitting just a game behind, although Miami has 2 games in hand on Cincinnati. The Arizona Diamondbacks won Tuesday, and are 1 1/2 games clear of the Marlins in the 2nd Wild Card spot.
Miami picked up 2 crucial wins in a 3-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and it is a respectable 6-3 in the past 9 games overall. Of course, 2 of those 3 losses came at home against the Mets Sept. 18-20 in South Florida.
New York enters on a 4-game skid, after getting swept in Philadelphia over the weekend in a 4-game set. However, it is a surprising 7-3 against the Marlins this season. The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 outings for the Mets.
The weather forecast is much better for Wednesday, with partly cloudy conditions and nearly a 0% chance of precipitation. There will be a stiff northeast wind blowing 11-14 mph directly from center field to home plate, aiding pitchers.
Marlins at Mets projected starters
LHP Braxton Garrett vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi
Garrett (9-6, 3.53 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st overall appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 155 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home win vs. New York Mets Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 6-2, 2.52 ERA (75 IP, 21 ER), 5 HR, .225 OBA in 14 starts
Lucchesi (3-0, 2.88 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-3 road loss vs. the Miami Marlins last Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 2 HR, .226 OBA in 3 starts
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Marlins at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Mets 2
Moneyline
The MARLINS (-130) are the play in Game 1 on Wednesday behind Garrett. I liked him for Tuesday’s game, but he never got a chance. He is 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA across 75 IP in 14 road assignments this season, and teams are hitting nearly 50 points lower against him on the road than in South Florida.
In addition, the sunshine should do him some good, and Braxton has managed a 2-0 record and sparkling 2.20 ERA in 9 daytime starts and 1 relief appearance over 49 IP this season.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS –1.5 (+125) are the play, but go lightly. Remember, Miami is just 3-7 in 10 meetings with New York this season, although the Mets +1.5 (-150) have looked rather disinterested over the past week, and are just playing out the string.
Over/Under
The UNDER 7.5 (-110) is a solid play. We get a couple of lefties throwing with a lot of confidence lately, and there will be a stiff wind blowing into the face of the batters, knocking down any potential long balls.
The Under is 3-1 in the previous 4 outings for Lucchesi, too, while the total has also gone low in 3 of the previous 4 assignments for Garrett, too. The biggest factor is that gusty wind blowing in, though.
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