Miami Heat odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (34-20) head to the nation’s capital Monday for a 7 p.m. ET showdown with the Washington Wizards (24-28) at Capital One Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami has won and covered back-to-back road games over the San Antonio Spurs (112-95 Thursday) and the Charlotte Hornets (104-86 Saturday) following a three-game losing skid. The Heat are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last two weeks.

Washington has dropped seven of its last eight games (1-7 ATS) including its latest outing, 95-80, versus the Phoenix Suns at home as an 8-point underdog Saturday.

The Heat are 2-1 SU but just 1-2 ATS versus the Wizards this season.

Heat at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:52 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Wizards +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
Against the spread: Heat -6.5 (-107) | Wizards +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (quadriceps) questionable

Wizards

SG Bradley Beal (wrist) out
C Daniel Gafford (health and safety protocols) out

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Heat at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, Wizards 103

Money line

PASS.

Miami is obviously the right side but the Heat (-270) are a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite. Especially considering Miami could be without its leading scorer and the odds-on favorite currently to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-107) because the Over is actually my favorite bet in this contest.

However, Miami has covered six of its last eight games versus teams with a losing record and won two of its three meetings with Washington by at least 7 points.

Plus the Heat have a decisive edge in rebounding and more rebounds mean more possessions, which usually leads to more points. Miami has a plus-3.0 rebound-per-game differential whereas Washington’s is minus-0.9.

Instead of betting Miami’s full-game spread, I’d prefer to take a shot at the HEAT -2.5 FIRST-HALF SPREAD (-122).

Miami has a plus-5.7 first-half scoring margin and Washington has a minus-11.7 first-half scoring margin over their last three games.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 207.5 (-115) as a fade against the heavy line movement with the total.

The Heat-Wizards game opened with a 214-point total and has been steamed down to the current price presumably because of Miami’s injury report.

However, I’d consider this an overreaction since Butler’s absence hurts both the Heat’s offense and defense and Miami is 12-7 O/U in games Butler misses.

The absence of Gafford also means Washington will play PF Montrezl Harrell more who’s instant offense from the bench.

Miami is ninth in adjusted offensive free-throw rate (FTr) and Washington is seventh, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Heat are 26th in adjusted defensive FTr and the Wizards are 21st, per CTG.

All three referees assigned to this game have also officiated more Overs and the officiating crew has a combined 57-48 O/U record.

The OVER 207.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Charlotte Hornets (28-25) host the Miami Heat (33-20) Saturday at Spectrum Center for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hornets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami snapped a three-game losing skid by clobbering the Spurs in San Antonio 112-95, easily covering as an 8-point favorite. The Heat are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last two weeks.

Charlotte also enters on a three-game losing streak including a 102-101 loss at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday. The Hornets are 2-5 SU and ATS across the last 14 days.

The Heat torched the Hornets 114-99 as 6.5-point favorites Oct. 29 in their first meeting this season. Miami All-Star F Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 32 points on 12-for-19 shooting with 10 rebounds and 5 assists.

Heat at Hornets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:57 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Hornets +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread: Heat -3.5 (-107) | Hornets +3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Hornets key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) probable
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (quadriceps) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

Hornets

SF Jalen McDaniels (ankle) out

Heat at Hornets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 117, Hornets 107

Money line

BET the HEAT (-155) for 1 unit because Miami beats up on bad defenses and on fatigued teams.

The Heat are 15-4 SU versus teams in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-9.3 adjusted net rating (ranked sixth), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

On top of that, Charlotte struggles with tough defenses and Miami is eight in defensive rating. The Hornets are 7-14 SU versus top-10 defenses with a minus-5.5 adjusted net rating (ranked 22nd), per CTG.

Miami also dominates teams when playing with a rest advantage and Charlotte is terrible when playing with no rest. The Heat are 9-3 SU with a rest advantage (plus-10.1 margin of victory) and the Hornets are 1-8 SU on the second of a back-to-back.

For the record, this is near the top of my price range for Miami’s money line (ML). If the Heat’s ML goes north of -165 then I’d just lay the points with Miami.

BET the HEAT (-155).

Against the spread

PASS.

However, if Miami’s ML gets any higher I’d be comfortable laying points with the Heat -3.5 (-107) in this spot considering how well they perform versus fatigued teams and how poorly the Hornets perform with no rest.

However, Charlotte is 9-2 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record and 4-0 ATS when getting 3-4.5 points so I could see an argument for the Hornets covering here.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 227.5 (-110) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer Miami outright.

This Heat-Hornets total has been steamed up from a 224-point opener and more than 80% of the action is on the Over, according to Pregame.com.

Charlotte has also gotten locked up in its past three games, all against top-10 defenses. The Hornets are 29th in both offensive rating and effective field goal shooting over their last three games.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Heat (32-19) stop by Scotiabank Arena Tuesday to play the Toronto Raptors (25-23) at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Raptors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Both these teams played Monday and met this past weekend. A F Jimmy Butler-less Heat got smacked 122-92 by the Boston Celtics and the Raptors won at the Atlanta Hawks 106-100 as 2.5-point road favorites Monday.

Toronto upset Miami on the road Saturday 124-120 in triple overtime despite that it was without leading scorer PG Fred VanVleet. These teams are now split 1-1 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this regular season through two meetings in Miami.

The Heat are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS while the Raptors are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS over the last two weeks. Miami is 10th in adjusted net rating over that span, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and Toronto is 9th.

Heat at Raptors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

Money line: Heat +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Raptors -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +2.5 (-105) | Raptors -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Heat at Raptors key injuries

Heat (not officially submitted)

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (personal) questionable
C Omer Yurtseven (health and safety protocols) out
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

Raptors

C Khem Birch (nose) out

Heat at Raptors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Raptors 113, Miami 107

Money line

BET the RAPTORS (-150) for 1 unit because the Heat could be without three starters and Toronto just beat Miami without VanVleet.

In fact, Butler was sensational Saturday versus the Raptors (37-14-10 triple-double) and the Heat still lost.

Not only is Butler an All-NBA-caliber forward but Miami could also be without elite wing defender Tucker. These absences are concerning since Toronto is stacked at wing with Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes.

The Raptors also perform better on limited rest: Toronto is 5-3 SU (plus-3.1 margin of victory) and Miami is 2-6 SU (minus-2.3 margin of victory) when playing with no rest days.

Finally, Toronto has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over Miami in ball security, which surfaced in the Heat-Raptors game Saturday. Miami is 27th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%), Toronto forces the highest rate of turnovers and the Raptors killed the Heat in this area Saturday. Toronto committed 7 fewer turnovers than Miami (23-16) and scored 7 more points off of turnovers.

BET the RAPTORS (-150) but if their money line goes north of -155 then I’d just lay the points with Toronto instead.

Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Raptors -2.5 (-120) since they are an NBA-best 6-2 ATS (plus-7.3 ATS margin) on the second of a back-to-back and are far healthier than the Heat at the moment.

I’m confident enough in Toronto that I’m willing to spend extra on the Raptors (-150) money line, but if that increases any further, I’d be comfortable laying up to 4 points with Toronto.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 209.5 (-112) for a quarter-unit, if at all, because the Toronto sides are sharper plays and both teams play at a bottom-three pace.

However, Miami is 7-1 O/U when playing on the second of a back-to-back with a plus-9.9 total margin and 9-4 O/U as a road underdog. Toronto is 11-7 O/U as a home favorite and 7-1 O/U in the last eight home games.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (32-18) visit Beantown Monday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Boston Celtics (26-25) at the TD Garden. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami lost at home to the Toronto Raptors 124-120 in triple overtime Saturday as 2.5-point favorites. Over the past two weeks, the Heat are 4-2 straight-up (SU) and 3-3 against the spread (ATS).

Boston beat the Pelicans 107-97 in New Orleans Saturday as 7-point road favorites. The Celtics are 3-3 SU and ATS in the last 14 days.

The Celtics (+6.5) crushed the Heat 95-78 in their first meeting this season, Nov. 4. Most of the damage was done in the second quarter where Boston outscored Miami 33-9, but the Celtics also won three of the “four factors”.

Heat at Celtics odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Celtics -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +3.5 (-115) | Celtics -3.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
C Omer Yurtseven (health and safety protocols) out
PG Kyle Lowry (personal) out

Celtics

None.

Heat at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 107, Heat 101

Money line

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

Boston is the right side, but the Celtics (-155) is a little too expensive, especially against a Heat (+125) team that’s an NBA-best 11-5 SU as an underdog with a plus-8.0 margin of victory.

Against the spread

BET the CELTICS -3.5 (-107) for a variety of reasons.

First of all, Boston matches up well with Miami since the Celtics have the frontcourt to neutralize Heat big Bam Adebayo, and Boston forwards Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is too much for Butler to handle. And that’s even if Butler plays, he is listed on Miami’s injury report as “questionable”.

But, Tatum and Brown are averaging a combined 50.3 points per game in January, and both are having their best shooting month of the season by true shooting percentage.

In fact, Tatum and Brown’s production is the major reason the Celtics are fourth in net rating this month (plus-7.8), three spots ahead of the Heat’s net rating (plus-5.9).

Plus Boston gets up for home games against quality competition. For instance, the Celtics are 5-2 SU at home versus top-10 teams in efficiency differential with a plus-6.8 adjusted net rating (ranked second) and a plus-4.4 ATS margin (ranked third), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Furthermore, the Celtics are better than their record indicates. In fact, Boston has a minus-4.2 win differential, which essentially means the Celtics should have four more wins (CTG). Also, Boston has a better shot quality differential than Miami according to both CTG and ShotQuality.com.

Finally, the Celtics may be able to get cheap points at the charity stripe because they are seventh in adjusted offensive free-throw rate while the Heat are 26th in adjusted defensive free-throw rate, per CTG.

BET the CELTICS -3.5 (-107) for 1 unit.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” towards the Under 209.5 (-107) because Boston is 25th in pace, Miami is 29th in pace, both teams are in the top-seven of defensive rating and the Celtics are 9-14 O/U as a home favorite with a minus-4.5 total margin.

However, Miami is 5-0 O/U over the past five games, the Over has cashed in six of the past eight Heat-Celtics meetings and both shoot an above-average 3-point attempt rate.

PASS ON THE TOTAL because it’s just too tough to call.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Raptors (23-23) stop by the FTX Arena Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Miami Heat (32-17). Below, we look at the Raptors vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Toronto has alternated between winning and losing over the past five games with the latest being a 111-105 loss at the Chicago Bulls as 4-point road underdogs.

Over the past two weeks, the Raptors are 3-4 straight-up (SU) and 4-3 against the spread (ATS) but Toronto PG Fred VanVleet has missed the past two games.

Miami defeated the Los Angeles Clippers 121-115 last night (Friday) at home but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites. The Heat enter on a three-game winning streak.

In the last 14 days, the Heat are 5-2 SU with a plus-6.0 adjusted net rating (ranked fifth) and 4-3 ATS with a minus-0.3 ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

The Heat (-4) won and covered their first meeting this season with the Raptors 104-99 Jan. 12. Miami shot better than Toronto from everywhere on the floor and outrebounded the Raptors 49-45.

Raptors at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Money line: Raptors +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Heat -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Raptors +3.5 (-105) | Heat -3.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Raptors at Heat key injuries

Raptors

PG Fred VanVleet (knee) questionable
C Khem Birch (nose) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (personal) questionable

Raptors at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, Raptors 109

Money line

PASS because there’s a lot of uncertainty with both teams’ injury reports. VanVleet may return for the Raptors, and if that’s the case, I’d “lean” towards Toronto’s money line.

Miami could still be without Lowry and Butler was listed on the injury report as questionable for the Heat’s game against the Clippers yesterday. I wouldn’t be shocked if Butler sat out the second of this back-to-back.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the RAPTORS +3.5 (-105) for a one-third-unit, if at all, because my favorite wager in this game is the Over.

That said, Toronto has the eighth-best ATS margin over the past two weeks (plus-1.4), per CTG, and the Raptors are 17-8 ATS versus teams with a winning record (8-5 ATS on the road).

On top of that, I’m noticing some reverse line movement in the betting market as a vast majority of the action is on the Heat -3.5 (-170), but they’ve been lowered from a 5.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line. Typically, it’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 208.5 (-108) for 1 unit because the Raptors-Heat total has already been steamed up 1-point from the look-ahead number and based on several trendy reasons.

For instance, Miami is 6-1 O/U in the second of a back-to-back (plus-6.6 total margin) and 7-0 O/U when playing with a rest disadvantage (plus-12.1 total margin).

Also, Toronto is 9-2 O/U when playing with a rest advantage (plus-11.0 total margin), the Raptors are 10-9 O/U as a road underdog and the Heat are 10-9 O/U as a home favorite.

Furthermore, Miami is 25th in defensive FT/FGA rate, Toronto is 27th and two of the three referees assigned to this game have officiated more Overs than Unders. Both teams could spend a lot of time at the foul line Saturday given their defensive free-throw rates and the officiating crew.

For the record, the OVER 208.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Clippers (25-25) head to South Beach Friday to play the Miami Heat (31-17) at the FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Clippers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

This is the Clippers’ sixth game of an eight-game road swing. They are 3-2 straight-up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) through the first five games. L.A. has won back-to-back games, which includes a rally from a 35-point deficit to stun Washington Tuesday.

Miami blasted the New York Knicks 110-96 Wednesday, improving to 8-2 SU/ATS over the past 10 games. The Heat are 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS at home.

The Clippers (-5) came back from a 15-point, first-quarter deficit to beat the Heat 112-109 in their first meeting this season (Nov. 11). Also, the Over cashed on a 211.5-point total.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA January 28 breakdown

Clippers at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Clippers +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Heat -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Clippers +7.5 (-122) | Heat -7.5 (-102)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Clippers at Heat key injuries

Clippers

SG Paul George (elbow) out
SF Marcus Morris (personal) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (personal) out
PF Morris Markief (return to competition reconditioning) out

Clippers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 113, Clippers 102

Money line

PASS.

Miami is obviously the correct side but the Heat’s -340 ML is way out of my price range for an NBA regular-season favorite. Miami’s ML is expensive because Butler is listed as “questionable.”

Against the spread

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-102).

Miami should win by double digits if Butler plays. If he sits, the Heat could still win by double digits. The reason is the Heat have two “strength-on-weakness” edges over L.A. on the glass and with ball security.

The Heat are fifth in both offensive-rebounding rate and defensive-turnover rate (TOV%). The Clippers are 29th in defensive-rebounding rate and 23rd in offensive TOV%.

Miami scores above-average points off of turnovers and second-chance points per game (PPG). L.A.’s defense ranks in the bottom 10 of the NBA in points off of turnovers and second-chance PPG allowed.

The Heat should be motivated to snap the six-game losing streak to the Clippers (Miami is 5-1 ATS in those games). In fact, Miami hasn’t beaten L.A. since acquiring Butler prior to the 2019-20 season.

Butler missed the first Clippers-Heat meeting this season, whereas L.A.’s now-injured George scored a team-high 27 points.

Finally, the Clippers struggle against quality competition and the Heat don’t. L.A. is 8-10 ATS versus teams above-.500, while Miami is 15-6 ATS and 7-2 ATS at home versus teams above-.500.

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-102).

Over/Under

SLIGHT LEAN to the OVER 210.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit.

Miami is third in true-shooting percentage but is 28th in 3-point attempts per game allowed. L.A. is eighth in 3-point shooting percentage.

Also, the Clippers have been red-hot shooting 3’s lately, hitting 39.3% from behind the arc over the past eight games. For a perspective on that stat, the Chicago Bulls lead the NBA in 3-point percentage at 37.8%.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Knicks (23-25) head to South Beach Wednesday to play the Miami Heat (30-17) at the FTX Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Knicks vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

New York lost a 95-93 heartbreaker at the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday but covered as 5-point road underdogs. The Knicks are 3-4 straight-up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) over the past two weeks.

Miami beat the Los Angeles Lakers 113-107 at home Sunday and covered as 4-point favorites. The Heat are 5-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 days.

The Heat have won seven of their last eight games versus the Knicks (6-2 ATS) including all three meetings last season.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA January 26 breakdown

Knicks at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Knicks +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Heat -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +5.5 (-108) | Heat -5.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 203.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

C Nerlens Noel (knee) questionable
C Mitchell Robinson (ankle) questionable
PG Derrick Rose (ankle) out

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (personal) out

Knicks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 107, Knicks 104

Money line

PASS even though I “lean” to New York plus the points and generally like to sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.

But, the Knicks (+190) isn’t a fat enough payout considering they are just 4-8 SU as a road underdog and the Heat (-240) is 12-5 SU as a home favorite.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the KNICKS +5.5 (-108) because there has been slight reverse line movement in New York’s direction.

For instance, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the action is on the Heat -5.5 (-112), but they’ve been lowered from a 7-point favorite on the look-ahead.

New York has covered its past four games as an underdog, but it’s only a “LEAN” to the KNICKS +5.5 (-108) because Miami has covered five of its past six as a favorite and have New York’s number in their recent history.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 203.5 (-112) for a variety of reasons.

First of all, two of the three assigned referees for this game have officiated more Overs. This inches me closer to the Over since both teams have an above-average offensive FT/FGA rate. Also, Miami is 25th in defensive FT/FGA rate.

Furthermore, both teams rank 10th or better in 3-point shooting percentage but each allows opponents to chuck 3-pointers. For instance, New York is 24th in opponent’s 3-point attempts per game and Miami is 28th.

Also, both teams have strong defensive ratings and the previous two Knicks-Heat games have combined for fewer than 200 points so I’m expecting more action to be on the Under for this game.

For what it’s worth, the OVER 203.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this contest.

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Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Lakers (23-23) are in South Beach Sunday for a 6 p.m. ET game against the Miami Heat (29-17) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Lakers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

L.A. rallied back from a first-half deficit to win and cover versus the Orlando Magic 116-105 as a 4.5-point road favorite Friday.

The Lakers are 2-4 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) with a minus-4.6 adjusted net rating (ranked 23rd) and a minus-8.3 ATS margin (ranked 29th) over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Miami had its two-game win streak snapped after losing at the Atlanta Hawks 110-108 Friday as a 1.5-point road underdog.

The Heat are 4-2 SU and ATS with a plus-6.6 adjusted net rating (ranked third) and a plus-2.8 ATS margin (ranked seventh) in the last 14 days, per CTG.

A F LeBron James-less Lakers upset the Heat 120-117 in overtime at home in their first meeting this season (Nov. 10) as 5.5-point underdogs.

Lakers at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.

Money line: Lakers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Heat -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Lakers +2.5 (-112) | Heat -2.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Lakers at Heat key injuries

Lakers

PF Anthony Davis (knee) questionable
SF LeBron James (abdomen) probable

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (personal) out
SG Tyler Herro (health and safety protocols) out
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

Lakers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 114, Lakers 107

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Heat (-140) because they should win outright and if this number gets to -130 then Miami’s money line becomes the preferred wager. However, I’m confident enough in the Heat here to lay the points.

Against the spread

BET the HEAT -2.5 (-108) for 1 unit as a fade against the market that’s hammering the Lakers based on the possible return of AD.

Davis played and was very effective in the first Lakers-Heat meeting this season but the reason L.A. won was due to insanely hot and unsustainable 3-point shooting.

Miami actually won three of the “four factors” but the Lakers sunk 47.4% of their 3s while the Heat made just 27.0% of their 3s.

Westbrook and L.A. guards Avery Bradley, Malik Monk and Wayne Ellington combined to hit 16 of 28 shots from 3-point land. Those 3-point performances should flip in this game since role players shoot better at home.

Furthermore, Miami allows the fewest paint points per game (PPG) and will pack the paint to force Lakers’ Russell Westbrook and LeBron into contested outside jumpers.

The Heat also have two strength-on-weakness edges over the Lakers with ball security and rebounding. L.A. is 22nd in both offensive turnover rate and defensive rebounding rate. Miami is third in defensive turnover rate and fifth in offensive rebounding rate.

This is a much better spot for the Heat who are 14-6 ATS versus teams above-.500 (6-2 ATS at home) and an NBA’s best 12-4 ATS following a SU loss.

BET the HEAT -2.5 (-108).

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-108) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer the Miami side more than the total.

However, these teams have a combined 26-9 O/U record in non-conference games with a plus-6.7 ATS margin and both teams have easy ways to score points on each other.

L.A. plays at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and gets out in transition at a high frequency while Miami has a below-average defensive efficiency versus transition offense.

On the other hand, the Heat excel at getting to the charity stripe, especially Miami All-Star wing Jimmy Butler, and the Lakers are 22nd in defensive FT/FGA rate. Miami had 19 more free-throw attempts in the first Lakers-Heat meeting this season.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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