Knicks Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Knicks (44-30) square off against the Miami Heat (41-33) Tuesday with tip-off from Kaseya Center set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Knicks vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Knicks lead 2-0

The Knicks are coming off a heartbreaking 113-112 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday. G Jalen Brunson followed up his 61-point performance with 30. Knicks not named Brunson shot just 9-for-32 (28%) from 3-point land in the Sunday defeat. The Knicks remain in 4th place, a half-game behind the Cleveland Cavaliers in the East. They’re 7-3 over the last 10.

The Heat are in the top Play-In Tournament spot at 7th and trail the Indiana Pacers for 6th by a game. They’re coming off convincing, 142-82 and 119-107 wins over the Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards. In the Wiz game Sunday, C Bam Adebayo had 22 points, 10 boards and 5 assists.

Knicks at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Knicks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Heat -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +2.5 (-105) | Heat -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

F OG Anunoby (elbow) out
F Julius Randle (shoulder) out
C Mitchell Robinson (ankle) questionable

Heat

G Tyler Herro (foot) out
G Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
F Duncan Robinson (back) questionable
G Terry Rozier (knee) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Knicks at Heat and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, Knicks 106

Moneyline

The Knicks are 2-0 against the Heat this season, but both games were at MSG. The teams are an even 5-5 over the last 10 meetings, but Miami has won all 4 at home. I look for Miami to make it 5 in a row, and it’s not priced out of our pocket yet.

You can take HEAT -150 or look to the spread.

Against the spread

Each Heat win in Miami in this 10-game window has been by 4+ points. This 2.5-point window is right at my limit that I’d lay on the spread. F Jimmy Butler has kind of been on cruise control, averaging 14.2 PPG while shooting 45.4% (15-for-33) during the stretch. I’d look for him to ramp it up Tuesday night.

Take the HEAT -2.5 (-115).

Over/Under

This is a smaller total than I envisioned at 1st glance. The Heat are 4-6 O/U over the last 10, and the Knicks are 6-4. This is the 2nd-lowest total in this matchup in the last 10 meetings.

Take the OVER 206.5 (-110).

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat Game 6 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat look to close out the New York Knicks at Kaseya Center Friday. Tip for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Knicks vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat went up 3-1 on the Knicks before losing Game 5 on the road 112-103. The 8th-seeded team in the East took down the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games in the 1st round, covering 4 of the 5. The Heat are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their 10 playoff games and are 4-0 ATS at home.

The Knicks, who took down the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 1st round and covered in 4 of those 5, are looking to force a Game 7. New York is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 playoff games. The Knicks finished the regular season 44-34-4 ATS. New York has been led in the playoffs by G Jalen Brunson, who is averaging 26.5 points per game.

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Knicks at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:44 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Knicks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +5.5 (-110) | Heat -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

Not yet submitted

Heat

Not yet submitted

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Knicks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Knicks 104

Moneyline

PASS.

Miami has been perfect at home, having a 4-0 straight up and ATS record.

However, with the Knicks looking to put in the effort and keep their season alive, Miami is too expensive to win outright at (-225). Similarly, it has been too good to bet against either.

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT -5.5 (-110).

Again, the Heat have been dominant at home. They were just 31-49-2 ATS in the regular season, but have turned that around in the playoffs.

F Jimmy Butler is averaging 31.9 points per game and is shooting 55.1% from the field. He’s averaging 35.3 per game at home. Butler is a key reason for the Heat turnaround. They are 4-0 ATS at home in the playoffs and should continue that dominance.

The Knicks are just 2-3 ATS on the road in the playoffs. Ultimately, although New York will have its back against the wall, take HEAT -5.5 (-110).

Over/Under

BET OVER 208.5 (-110).

The Knicks have gone Over in 3 of their last 4 games and have topped 100 in 6 of their last 7 which should bode well for bettors given this ultra-low total.

Miami has gone Over in 8 of its 10 playoff games and and scored at least 105 in all but 1 of those. It should bounce back after shooting just 42% from the field in Game 5.

Take the OVER 208.5 (-110).

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat Game 4 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Knicks take on the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their 2nd-round NBA playoff series on Monday at Kaseya Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Knicks vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Knicks suffered a 105-86 blowout loss to the Heat on Saturday, failing to cover as 4-point road underdogs. New York was horrible on 3-pointers, hitting only 8 of 40 attempts, and must do better if it hopes to avoid going down 3-1 in the series.

After missing Game 2 due to an ankle injury, F Jimmy Butler returned in Game 3 to produce 28 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists for the Heat. Miami has won 5 of its last 6 games in this postseason.

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Knicks at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:56 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Knicks +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Heat -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +4.5 (-115) | Heat -4.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

G Immanuel Quickley (ankle) doubtful

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
G Tyler Herro (hand) out
F Caleb Martin (back) questionable
G Victor Oladipo (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Knicks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, Knicks 102

Moneyline

PASS.

Even though the Knicks are desperate to secure a win on Monday, I believe the Heat will take a 3-1 lead in the series. That being said, I wouldn’t advise taking Miami’s moneyline in this contest at nearly -200 odds.

Against the spread

HEAT -4.5 (-105) is the lean in this pivotal Game 4 despite the desperation of the Knicks. Quickley’s status for the Knicks looms large as he is one of their better shooters and it’s tough to bet against Butler at home in the postseason.

The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 6-0 in their last 6 games overall.

Over/Under

OVER 206.5 (-110).

While the 1st 3 games of the series have been low-scoring affairs, there have been 207-plus points scored in 2 of the 3 games. And the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat Game 3 odds and lines, with expert NBA picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Knicks continue their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Miami Heat Saturday at Kaseya Center. Tip for Game 3 is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Knicks vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The series is tied 1-1 after the Knicks picked up a 111-105 win in Game 2 Tuesday, avenging a 108-101 loss in the series opener Sunday — both games being played in New York.

After going to the free-throw line 20 times in Game 1, shooting just 60% (12 of 20), the Knicks hit 70% (21 of 30) from the charity stripe in Game 2. The Knicks also outrebounded the Heat 50-34 in Tuesday’s win at Madison Square Garden.

Miami has won and covered 4 consecutive games as an underdog and has cashed the Over at a 5-1 clip in the past 6 outings. The Heat shot 42% (36 of 85) from the field in Game 1, including 33% (13 of 39) from behind the 3-point arc.

Knicks PG Jalen Brunson, who had been nursing an ankle injury, wasn’t bothered by the ailment in Game 2. He posted a game-high 30 points with 6 3-pointers, while PF Julius Randle (25 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists) and SG Josh Hart (14 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists) contributed with double-doubles, and near triple-doubles.

The Heat saw SF Caleb Martin and PG Gabe Vincent drop in 4 triples apiece, as Martin was good for 22 points and 8 rebounds, and Vincent finished with 21 points.

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Knicks at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Knicks +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Heat -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +3.5 (-105) | Heat -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

None

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
F Haywood Highsmith (knee) probable
SF Caleb Martin (back) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Knicks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, Knicks 103

Moneyline

Miami (-185) is just a little too expensive for a singular wager as my personal limit is -180 for a moneyline play. Even as part of a multi-team parlay, including the Heat (-185) will suck the value out of your ticket.

PASS, and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

MIAMI -3.5 (-115) is a strong play on its home court in Game 3.

New York +3.5 (-105) might have won in Game 2, but it didn’t cover for a 2nd straight time in this series. The Knicks were 10-point favorites Tuesday and 4-point favorites in the opening loss. New York is also 1-5 ATS in its past 6 conference semifinals game, though 4 of those were back in 2013.

On the flip side, Miami enters on a 5-game cover streak, while going 4-0 in the past 4 games at home.

Over/Under

OVER 209.5 (-110) is worth pursuing in Game 3.

The Over cashed in Game 2, and the Over is on a 6-1 run in 7 postseason games for the Heat so far.

The Under cashed in each of the first 6 playoff games for the Knicks, but the Over connected in Tuesday’s Game 2. The Over has hit in 4 straight meetings between these teams in Miami, however.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Knicks (42-31) battle the Miami Heat (39-34) on Wednesday. Tip from Miami-Dade Arena is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Knicks vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

New York fell 140-134 at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday failing to cover as an 8-point favorite. The loss snapped a 3-game winning streak. In its last 10 games, New York is 6-4 straight up and against the spread (ATS). The Knicks are 40-30-3 ATS this season.

Miami beat Detroit 112-100 on Sunday to cover as 10-point road favorites. It has now won 3 of its last 4 games and is 6-4 in its last 10. In that stretch, the Heat are 4-6 ATS to fall to 27-44-2 ATS on the season.

New York has won both previous matchups this season winning 106-104 to cover as 3-point home underdogs in early February and winning 122-120 to cover as 1-point road underdogs in early March.

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Knicks at Heat odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:51 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Knicks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Heat -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +1.5 (-110) | Heat -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

None

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (knee) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (knee) questionable
PF Cody Zeller (nose) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Knicks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Knicks 109, Heat 106

Moneyline

BET KNICKS +100.

The Knicks have played great as underdogs this season. In games they have played as 1-2.5-point underdogs they are 11-4 ATS while the Heat are just 7-9 ATS while playing as a 1-2.5-point favorite. New York is also 24-12 ATS on the road this season while Miami is just 12-24-1 ATS at home.

Where the true discrepancy lays is in the Heat offense against the Knicks defense. The Knicks rank 11th in opponent points per game, 3rd in opponent FG percentage, and 5th in opponent 3-point percentage while the Heat offense ranks 30th, 27th, and 28th in the league respectively. Expect the Knicks to create problems for the Heat offense which will allow them to steal a victory in Miami and move to 3-0 against them this season.

Against the spread

PASS.

While the stats support backing the Knicks spread, the moneyline presents more profit.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 224.5 (-112).

Both teams strength is their defense. With Miami ranking 2nd in the league in opponent points per game and the Knicks ranking 11th and 3rd in opponent field goal percentage, points will be tough to come by.

The Under is 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 games following a ATS loss and 5-1 in their last 6 games following an outright loss, The Under is also 5-2 in their last 7 games.

For the Heat, the Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Under has also hit in their last 2 games.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Knicks (37-27) visit the Miami Heat (33-30) on Friday. Tip from Miami-Dade Arena is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Knicks vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Knicks steamrolled the Nets 142-118 on Wednesday to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. They have now won 7 in a row and 9 of their last 10 games. In that span, New York is 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS) to improve to 35-26-3 ATS this season.

Miami fell to Philadelphia 119-96 at home on Wednesday, failing to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. It is just 1-5 in its last 6 games both outright and ATS. The Heat are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games to fall to 28-35 ATS this season.

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Knicks at Heat odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:13 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Knicks -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Heat +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks -2.5 (-112) | Heat +2.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

Not yet submitted

Heat

PF Jimmy Butler (knee) questionable
SF Nikola Jovic (back) out
PG Kyle Lowry (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Knicks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Knicks 110, Heat 103

Moneyline

PASS.

The moneyline does not present a profitable play on the Knicks in this matchup.

Against the spread

BET KNICKS -2.5 (-112).

The Knicks have been on a hot streak recently going 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The Knicks are also 20-10 ATS on the road this season.

The Heat are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an outright loss of 10 or more points. They are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games to fall to 9-20-1 ATS at home this season.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 215.5 (-115).

The Knicks’ defense ranks 7th in the NBA in opponent points per game while the Heats’ offense ranks 30th in points per game. Similarly, the Miami defense ranks 2nd in the NBA in opponent points per game while the New York offense ranks 12th in points per game.

This game is shaping up to be a defensive battle that will put points at a premium.

The Under is also 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The East-leading Miami Heat (47-26) look to snap a two-game skid when they host the New York Knicks (31-42) Friday. Tip-off from FTX Arena will be at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Knicks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Knicks are fighting for their playoff lives right now, sitting five games back of the 10th-seed Atlanta Hawks. New York needs every victory it can get with only nine games remaining and its been making it interesting in recent weeks. The Knicks are 3-2 in their last five games and 6-4 in their last 10. While they rank seventh in points allowed (106.9), they’re just 27th in scoring (106.3).

The Heat have lost their last two games and now hold just a one-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They lost 113-106 to the Philadelphia 76ers as 8-point favorites Monday and were crushed 118-104 by the Golden State Warriors Wednesday despite being 9.5-point favorites. The Heat had won six of their eight games prior to the two losses.

Knicks at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

Money line: Knicks +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Heat -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +6.5 (-115) | Heat -6.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

C Nerlens Noel (foot) out
PF Julius Randle (quad) questionable
SG Cam Reddish (shoulder) out
C Mitchell Robinson (back) questionable
PG Derrick Rose (ankle) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (knee) questionable
SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out
SF Duncan Robinson (Achilles) questionable
SF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
SG Gabe Vincent (toe) out

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Knicks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Knicks 108

Money line

Both teams are fairly banged up and are in danger of potentially missing a couple of starters. That should keep the Knicks in this one, assuming Randle and Robinson are able to play.

However, I’m going to PASS with so much up in the air as of now, and the Heat money line sitting at a steep -270.

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Against the spread

The Heat have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games and have lost three of those games outright despite being favored. The Knicks have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as road underdogs, most recently with a 121-106 win at the Charlotte Hornets as 8.5-point ‘dogs.

I like the KNICKS +6.5 (-115) getting the points with the Heat in a bit of a rut. Monitor the injury situation, though.

Over/Under

The Over/Under is lower tonight with both teams injured. However, I like the OVER 215.5 (-107) even with questions about who will be available. The total has gone Over in the Heat’s last three games and in the last two Knicks contests, and I think that will continue Friday in Miami.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Knicks (23-25) head to South Beach Wednesday to play the Miami Heat (30-17) at the FTX Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Knicks vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

New York lost a 95-93 heartbreaker at the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday but covered as 5-point road underdogs. The Knicks are 3-4 straight-up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) over the past two weeks.

Miami beat the Los Angeles Lakers 113-107 at home Sunday and covered as 4-point favorites. The Heat are 5-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 days.

The Heat have won seven of their last eight games versus the Knicks (6-2 ATS) including all three meetings last season.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA January 26 breakdown

Knicks at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Knicks +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Heat -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Knicks +5.5 (-108) | Heat -5.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 203.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Knicks at Heat key injuries

Knicks

C Nerlens Noel (knee) questionable
C Mitchell Robinson (ankle) questionable
PG Derrick Rose (ankle) out

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (personal) out

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Knicks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 107, Knicks 104

Money line

PASS even though I “lean” to New York plus the points and generally like to sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.

But, the Knicks (+190) isn’t a fat enough payout considering they are just 4-8 SU as a road underdog and the Heat (-240) is 12-5 SU as a home favorite.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the KNICKS +5.5 (-108) because there has been slight reverse line movement in New York’s direction.

For instance, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the action is on the Heat -5.5 (-112), but they’ve been lowered from a 7-point favorite on the look-ahead.

New York has covered its past four games as an underdog, but it’s only a “LEAN” to the KNICKS +5.5 (-108) because Miami has covered five of its past six as a favorite and have New York’s number in their recent history.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 203.5 (-112) for a variety of reasons.

First of all, two of the three assigned referees for this game have officiated more Overs. This inches me closer to the Over since both teams have an above-average offensive FT/FGA rate. Also, Miami is 25th in defensive FT/FGA rate.

Furthermore, both teams rank 10th or better in 3-point shooting percentage but each allows opponents to chuck 3-pointers. For instance, New York is 24th in opponent’s 3-point attempts per game and Miami is 28th.

Also, both teams have strong defensive ratings and the previous two Knicks-Heat games have combined for fewer than 200 points so I’m expecting more action to be on the Under for this game.

For what it’s worth, the OVER 203.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this contest.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Tuesday’s New York Knicks at Miami Heat NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The New York Knicks (11-14) meet the Miami Heat (9-14) Tuesday for the second of their home/away miniseries at American Airlines Arena. The tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Knicks-Heat NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Miami took the first game with New York Sunday 109-103 at Madison Square Garden as 5.5-point favorites. It was a seesaw game that saw 12 lead changes, and while the Knicks covered the closing line technically, a last-second layup by New York SF Julius Randle helped some Knicks bettors cash a backdoor cover.

The Knicks’ loss snapped a two-game win streak, and they’re 3-3 straight-up (3-3 against the spread) in the last six games. The Heat are on a two-game win streak and are also 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six games. Miami’s victory also moved it to 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with New York.

Knicks at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Knicks +200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Heat -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Knicks +6.5 (-110) | Heat -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Knicks at Heat: Key injuries

Knicks

PG Derrick Rose (non-injury related) questionable
C Nerlens Noel (knee) questionable

Heat

PG Goran Dragic (ankle) out
SG Avery Bradley (calf) out
SF Maurice Harkless (thigh) out

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Knicks at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 114, Knicks 110

Money line (ML)

PASS with a lean on Knicks (+200) because I like what I saw Sunday out of them, but I’m still holding onto my Heat-as-a-contender stock, and they need to beat sub-.500 teams.

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Against the spread (ATS)

New York has the size and defense to protect the paint and force Miami to make difficult jump shots. What the Knicks lack are players who can create their own shots, and the backcourt in particular, is a real weakness for them. Aside from Knicks SG Alec Burks, the only other guard to make a three was SG R.J. Barrett (1-of-3 from three), and no guard shot above 40%.

My read is we are due for a bounce-back performance from the Knicks backcourt, who should improve once they get newly acquired PG Derrick Rose into the rotation. There isn’t a lot of defense in Miami’s backcourt, and New York just needs to capitalize on wide-open attempts, which they will Tuesday.

BET KNICKS +6.5 (-110) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Though Sunday’s Knicks-Heat game went Over the total by just five points, that number was too low and so is today’s 208.5 total. The Heat don’t defend behind the arc well—29th in opponent’s 3-pointers attempted per game and 22nd in 3-point defense—so if just two of the Knicks’ guards can chip in Tuesday, this should easily go Over.

TAKE OVER 208.5 (-115) for a half-unit.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

NBA scouts on what Derrick Rose means for Knicks’ playoff chances, Immanuel Quickley’s development (Hoops Hype)
Hoops Hype rumors: Knicks | Heat

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