Washington Wizards odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (34-20) head to the nation’s capital Monday for a 7 p.m. ET showdown with the Washington Wizards (24-28) at Capital One Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami has won and covered back-to-back road games over the San Antonio Spurs (112-95 Thursday) and the Charlotte Hornets (104-86 Saturday) following a three-game losing skid. The Heat are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last two weeks.

Washington has dropped seven of its last eight games (1-7 ATS) including its latest outing, 95-80, versus the Phoenix Suns at home as an 8-point underdog Saturday.

The Heat are 2-1 SU but just 1-2 ATS versus the Wizards this season.

Heat at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:52 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Wizards +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
Against the spread: Heat -6.5 (-107) | Wizards +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (quadriceps) questionable

Wizards

SG Bradley Beal (wrist) out
C Daniel Gafford (health and safety protocols) out

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Heat at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, Wizards 103

Money line

PASS.

Miami is obviously the right side but the Heat (-270) are a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite. Especially considering Miami could be without its leading scorer and the odds-on favorite currently to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-107) because the Over is actually my favorite bet in this contest.

However, Miami has covered six of its last eight games versus teams with a losing record and won two of its three meetings with Washington by at least 7 points.

Plus the Heat have a decisive edge in rebounding and more rebounds mean more possessions, which usually leads to more points. Miami has a plus-3.0 rebound-per-game differential whereas Washington’s is minus-0.9.

Instead of betting Miami’s full-game spread, I’d prefer to take a shot at the HEAT -2.5 FIRST-HALF SPREAD (-122).

Miami has a plus-5.7 first-half scoring margin and Washington has a minus-11.7 first-half scoring margin over their last three games.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 207.5 (-115) as a fade against the heavy line movement with the total.

The Heat-Wizards game opened with a 214-point total and has been steamed down to the current price presumably because of Miami’s injury report.

However, I’d consider this an overreaction since Butler’s absence hurts both the Heat’s offense and defense and Miami is 12-7 O/U in games Butler misses.

The absence of Gafford also means Washington will play PF Montrezl Harrell more who’s instant offense from the bench.

Miami is ninth in adjusted offensive free-throw rate (FTr) and Washington is seventh, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Heat are 26th in adjusted defensive FTr and the Wizards are 21st, per CTG.

All three referees assigned to this game have also officiated more Overs and the officiating crew has a combined 57-48 O/U record.

The OVER 207.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (34-17) host the Washington Wizards (23-25) Saturday at FedExForum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Washington has lost five of its last six games (1-5 against the spread) including four straight with the latest being a heartbreaking 116-115 loss at home to the Los Angeles Clippers Tuesday. The Wizards had a 30-point lead at halftime before an epic collapse to the Clippers.

Memphis has won back-to-back games at the San Antonio Spurs Wednesday and at home against the Utah Jazz Friday. The Grizzlies are 4-2 straight-up (SU) and ATS over the last two weeks with their two losses coming on the road at the Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavericks.

The Wizards beat the brakes off the Grizzlies 115-87 as 3-point favorites in their first meeting this season Nov. 5. Washington’s domination was due to it outshooting Memphis from the field 58.3-35.4% (40.0-19.4% from behind the arc) but the Grizzlies won three of the “four factors”.

Wizards at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:09 a.m. ET.

Money line: Wizards +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Grizzlies -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +5.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -5.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Wizards at Grizzlies key injuries

Wizards

None.

Grizzlies (not officially submitted)

SG Dillon Brooks (ankle)
SF Kyle Anderson (health and safety protocols) out
PG Tyus Jones (health and safety protocols) out

Wizards at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 117, Wizards 107

Money line

PASS because I think Memphis gets revenge on Washington for earlier this season but the Grizzlies (-220) is a little out of my price range.

Against the spread

BET the GRIZZLIES -5.5 (-107) for 1 unit because Memphis has been profitable at this price this season while the opposite is true for the Wizards.

Memphis is 4-1 ATS when laying between 5-7 points and Washington is 1-5-1 ATS when being spotted 5-7 points.

The Grizzlies have also performed very well against teams in the bottom 10 of efficiency differential, which Washington is, and when played with a rest disadvantage.

The Grizzlies are 14-6 SU versus bottom-10 teams with the fourth-best adjusted net rating (plus-11.7) and the second-best ATS margin (plus-7.6), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Plus the Grizzlies are an NBA-best 8-4 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage.

Memphis has covered six of its past seven home games, seven of its past eight games as a favorite and five straight versus teams with a losing record.

Finally, Washington is an NBA-worst 7-15-1 ATS on the road with a minus-2.3 ATS margin.

BET the GRIZZLIES -5.5 (-107) for 1 unit.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 229.5 (-108) for 1 unit because Memphis plays more to the Under in this situation, Washington does a good job defending what the Grizzlies do often and I think the public will be all over this Over.

Memphis likes to push the pace, attack the basket and crash the glass. However, the Wizards allow the fewest fastbreak points per game (PPG) and rank 12th in second-chance PPG allowed.

Lastly, the Grizzlies are 5-6-1 O/U when playing with a rest disadvantage (minus-4.1 total margin) and 3-5-1 O/U on zero rest days (minus-5.5 total margin).

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Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Clippers (23-25) visit the nation’s capital Tuesday to play the Washington Wizards (23-24) at the Capital One Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Clippers vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Los Angeles has alternated between winning and losing over its past five games with the latest being a 110-102 loss at the New York Knicks as 4-point road underdogs. The Clippers are 4-6 straight-up (SU) and 5-5 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games.

Washington closes out an 8-game homestand Tuesday and is 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS over that span. The Wizards got crushed 116-87 by the Boston Celtics in their latest outing Tuesday.

Clippers at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Clippers +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Wizards -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Clippers +4.5 (-107) | Wizards -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Clippers at Wizards key injuries

Clippers

SF Paul George (elbow) out

Wizards

None.

Clippers at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Clippers 107, Wizards 104

Money line

PASS because I only lean towards L.A. plus the points but am not confident enough to sprinkle on the Clippers (+160). Also, my favorite play in this game is the Under.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the CLIPPERS +4.5 (-107) because L.A. has exceeded expectations recently while Washington has not and this is just a bad spot for the Wizards -4.5 (-115).

For instance, the Clippers have covered 3 of their last 4 games and the Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.

Furthermore, Washington is 1-14-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus teams with an overall losing record and has the worst ATS margin (minus-7.9) when facing teams in the bottom-10 teams, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Finally, the Wizards are 5-10 ATS with a minus-4.5 ATS margin versus Western Conference teams and an NBA-worst 7-15 ATS as a favorite with a minus-4.2 ATS margin.

“LEAN” to the CLIPPERS +4.5 (-107) for a quarter-unit.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 219.5 (-107) for 1 unit mostly because this will be the least bet line in the Clippers-Wizards game and, generally, that’s where you find profit in sports betting.

According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, more than 75% of the cash wagered is on the Over and we know three-fourths of the betting public doesn’t win in this racket.

On top of that, L.A. is eighth in adjusted defensive rating and 26th in adjusted offensive rating whereas Washington is just 23rd in adjusted offensive rating, per CTG.

Although the Wizards don’t grade out well in defensive efficiency, they do a good job defending what the Clippers do often, which is getting out in transition.

For example, L.A. plays the sixth-highest frequency of transition offense but has the second-worst offensive efficiency in the fastbreak.

But, the Wizards are third in defensive efficiency versus transition offense and allow the fewest fastbreak points per game (PPG).

Finally, Washington is 20th in pace and L.A. is 21st in pace this month. Fewer possessions mean fewer points unless these teams have a hot-shooting night.

For the record, the UNDER 219.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this game.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Raptors (21-21) visit the nation’s capital Friday to play the Washington Wizards (23-22). The tip-off at the Capital One Arena is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Raptors vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Toronto has lost four of its past five games including back-to-back road losses at the Miami Heat Monday and at the Dallas Mavericks Wednesday. The Raptors are 23-19 against the spread (ATS) and 23-19 Over/Under (O/U).

Washington has alternated between winning and losing over its past four games with the latest being a 119-118 loss to the Brooklyn Nets Wednesday as 1-point home favorites. The Wizards are 19-25-1 ATS and 24-20-1 O/U.

The Raptors are 2-1 straight-up (SU) and ATS versus the Wizards this season with two straight victories over Washington.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA January 21 breakdown

Raptors at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Money line: Raptors -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Wizards -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Raptors +1.5 (-120) | Wizards -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Raptors at Wizards key injuries

Raptors

SG Gary Trent Jr. (ankle) questionable
C Khem Birch (nose) out

Wizards

None.

Raptors at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Wizards 113, Raptors 107

Money line

BET the WIZARDS (-115) for 1 unit because the Raptors (-105) underperform versus bad teams.

For instance, Washington has a negative net rating despite its winning record. But, Toronto ranks 26th in points per 100 possessions differential versus teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating and 25th in ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Also, the Wizards match up very well against the Raptors. Toronto ranks fourth in points off of turnovers per game and second in second-chance points per game (PPG). While Washington is seventh in points off of turnovers allowed per game and 13th in second-chance PPG allowed.

Furthermore, the Wizards are seventh in non-garbage time offensive free-throw rate whereas the Raptors have the second-worst non-garbage time defensive free-throw rate (CTG).

Moreover, Toronto gets out in transition at the fifth-highest rate but has a below-average offensive efficiency in the fast break. Washington ranks third in defensive efficiency versus fast-break offense and gives up the fewest fast-break PPG.

On top of that, the Wizards actually have a better offensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and defensive eFG% than the Raptors. Also, Washington’s defense ranks first in shot quality allowed, per CTG.

Finally, this feels like a trap spot Raptors. The Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games with four of those ATS losses coming versus bad teams such as Portland, Orlando (twice) and Oklahoma City. But, Toronto has a positive net rating and is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.

BET the WIZARDS (-115).

Against the spread

PASS since Washington’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Wizards -1.5 (-105). Don’t be cheap, just bet Washington SU.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 217.5 (-115) for a quarter-unit because my numbers put the Raptors-Wizards total in the low 220s since Washington should stack easy points at the foul line and score more PPG at home.

However, both rank 20th or lower in both pace and 3-point attempt rate. Also, Toronto has gone Under the total in six straight games and the Under has cashed in four of the past Raptors-Wizards meetings.

My favorite wager in this game is Washington’s money line, but I “LEAN” to the OVER 217.5 (-115).

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (10-7) host the Washington Wizards (12-7) Saturday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Washington broke out of a two-game minislump by holding off the Oklahoma City Thunder in a 101-99 win Friday as 6.5-point road favorites. The Wizards are 10-9 ATS and 6-13 O/U with the 14th-best net rating (plus-0.7).

Dallas snapped a three-game losing skid its last time out by upsetting the Los Angeles Clippers 112-104 in overtime as 2.5-point road underdogs. The Mavs are 8-9 ATS and 6-10-1 O/U with the 22nd-ranked net rating (minus-1.2).

The Mavs beat the Wizards in both regular-season meetings last year but Washington covered the second in a thrilling 125-124 road loss. Either side of the total hit in the two Wizards-Mavericks meetings last season.

Wizards at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Wizards +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Mavericks -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +6.5 (-102) | Mavericks -6.5 (-122)
Over/Under (O/U): 212.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Wizards at Mavericks key injuries

Wizards

C Thomas Bryant (knee) out
PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out

Mavericks

PG Jalen Brunson (foot) questionable

Wizards at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Wizards 107, Mavericks 103

Money line

Slight “LEAN” to the WIZARDS (+250) for a tiny wager if at all because I like Washington getting points in this spot and that’s a really chunky payout considering how many edges the Wizards have.

For example, Dallas generates the second-highest rate of field goals out of the post, eighth-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and ninth-most off-the-dribble 3-pointers, according to ShotQuality.com.

But, Washington’s defense is ninth in efficiency vs. offense out of the post. Also, the Wizards are fifth in shot quality allowed vs. catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and fourth vs. off-the-dribble 3-pointers, according to ShotQuality.com.

On top of that, Washington gets the fourth-most looks at the rim and Dallas has the sixth-worst shot quality allowed of attempts at the rim (ShotQuality.com).

In addition, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Wizards attempt the eighth-highest volume of short-mid-range shots and the Mavs have the 24th-ranked defensive field goal percentage vs. field goals in that area of the floor.

Finally, both rank in the top-5 of shot attempts generated through half-court offense but Washington’s defense is sixth in shot quality allowed vs. half-court offense and Dallas’s defense ranks 26th (ShotQuality.com).

The far wiser play is Washington plus the points but I see enough value here to SPRINKLE ON WIZARDS (+250).

Against the spread

Definitely BET the WIZARDS +6.5 (-102) heavier than or instead of Washington’s money line based on the aforementioned logic and some market-based rational.

What I mean is there’s been a “sharp line move” in Washington’s direction and the Wizards are more likely to execute their offense than the Mavs.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game at the time of publishing. More money is on the Wizards but more bets have been placed on the Mavs. Oddsmakers reacted by lowering Dallas from a 7.5-point favorite on the opener to the current price.

Again, if it’s an “either/or” situation then definitely BET WIZARDS +6.5 (-102) instead of Washington straight-up.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 212.5 (-112) because a vast majority of the market is hammering the Over in this contest yet both teams prefer to play half-court basketball while playing at a bottom-10 pace.

So there are two angles in favor of betting the UNDER 212.5 (-112) but that’s all I really got so I’ll only “LEAN” towards a lower-scoring Wizards-Mavericks showdown.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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