Tag: metrics

These advanced metrics suggest Alvin Kamara has lost a step

These advanced metrics suggest Alvin Kamara has lost a step. Wear and tear has taken a toll on the Saints’ star running back:

It’s been a rough couple of years for Alvin Kamara. Between an offensive line that regressed amid coaching changes and inconsistent-at-best quarterback play, the New Orleans Saints’ star running back has had to do a lot of the work on his own — and, advanced stats suggest, he’s beginning to wear down.

One analyst at Football Insights shared a chart displaying running backs through two metrics over the last two years: yards after contact per carry, and missed tackles per carry. And Kamara wound up in the wrong quadrant. So did his teammate Jamaal Williams. Both of them fell among the league’s least-dynamic running backs after performing poorly in these advanced stats.

It’s no secret that the Saints were less-than-explosive on the ground last year, but the trend goes back further than that. Kamara isn’t breaking tackles and running away from defenders as easily as we saw early in his career. It’s easy to explain when you consider how heavy a workload he’s been asked to shoulder in recent years, compared to the timeshare he enjoyed with Mark Ingram II early on. Wear and tear adds up.

But Kamara remains a big part of the team’s plans on offense, and he figures to be a big beneficiary of Klint Kubiak designing and calling plays rather than Pete Carmichael. Anything Kubiak can do to get Kamara out in space or working behind better blocking will help; giving him a longer runway will let him build up more speed to make a play. It’s not like Kamara is washed up — he still has tremendous lower-body strength and balance through contact, with a keen eye for reading the field to find an open lane. He’s a coveted talent, and the constant trade speculation is proof of it, even if he isn’t the same player he once was. Kubiak’s job is to help revitalize him.

Hopefully it works out. Between Kamara’s recent struggles, Williams’ disappointing performance, and Kendre Miller’s injury history it’s looking like the Saints should invest more resources in the position with an eye on the future. Maybe that means drafting a running back or taking advantage of the loaded free agency class. In an ideal world, Kamara is playing well enough to quiet those concerns. But that isn’t where we’re at right now.

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Chiefs earned incredible television ratings in Kansas City during matchup vs. Dolphins in Germany

Nearly everyone in Kansas City who has a television was tuned into the #Chiefs Week 9 game against the #Dolphins on Sunday.

The Kansas City Chiefs are officially an international sensation after beating the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany during Week 9 action. The team, led by its defense, showed signs of new life after taking its second loss of the 2023 season against the Denver Broncos a week earlier, and Kansas City seems to be trending up heading into its bye week.

Fans tuned in for the matchup against Miami in incredible numbers, according to John Ourand of the Sports Business Journal.

No less than 94 percent of all TVs in the Kansas City area were tuned in to watch the Chiefs take down Tyreek Hill, meaning that nearly every fan with a television in Western Missouri was watching the international matchup unfold in real-time.

Few things can unite people like good football, and when Kansas City plays in a special time slot, the sheer scale of the crowd watching from home is truly mind-boggling.

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What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 4

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A say about the Saints going into Week 4:

We’re almost into Week 4, and things are rough for the New Orleans Saints, which is reflected in the advanced metrics you’ll find orbiting around the NFL. Whether you prefer DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, or something else entirely, we’ve got it collected for you here. Let’s see where the Saitns rank among their peers on offense, defense, and at quarterback:

Updated bracketology and metrics for LSU heading into Selection Sunday

Here’s where the Tigers stand after their exit from the SEC Tournament.

The Tigers’ run at the SEC Tournament in Tampa came to an end on Friday at the hands of the Arkansas Razorbacks with a 79-67 loss in the quarterfinals.

A Quadrant 1 win against a Razorbacks team that beat LSU twice during the regular season certainly would have been a nice boost to its NCAA Tournament resume, but coach Will Wade’s team will head back to Baton Rouge to await its fate.

The Tigers can breathe easily, as there’s no real chance of this team missing March Madness. However, there are still a lot of questions still to be answered regarding seeding. With LSU”s case complete, here’s where the team stands in the latest bracketology projections and advanced metrics.

Saints offensive line carrying rare continuity, elite performance into 2020 season

The New Orleans Saints offensive line measured among the best in the NFL by Football Outsiders, but their health and continuity is important

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Just how good is the New Orleans Saints offense line? After re-signing left guard Andrus Peat (a two-time Pro Bowl alternate), they’re set to return all five starters from lats year’s unit. That’s an impressive feat in itself, but it means a lot more after you dig into what the analytics have to say about offensive line performance around the league.

Fortunately, analysts like the crew at Football Outsiders are on the cutting edge of quantifying how well the big blockers up front play. The Football Outsiders staff contextualizes their main grades well with a number of different factors, but we’ll be focusing on two key categories to determine how the Saints perform: adjusted sack rate (reflecting performance in pass protection) and adjusted line yards (which demonstrates run blocking efficiency), which are each contextualized for factors like down, distance, and opponents.

We took things a step further and filtered the list down to the offensive lines that perform at an above-average rate in both categories. Just a dozen teams from around the NFL passed the test in both categories, achieving an adjusted sack rate of lower than 7% as well as an adjusted line yards average higher than 4.26. Here’s how the list shook out (ranked by an average of each team’s placement in the two metrics):

  1. Dallas Cowboys: 4.3% adjusted sack rate, 4.91 adjusted line yards
  2. New Orleans Saints: 4.7% ASR, 4.92 ALY
  3. Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders: 5.9% ASR, 4.63 ALY
  4. Baltimore Ravens: 6.0% ASR, 4.73 ALY
  5. New England Patriots: 5.3% ASR, 4.49 ALY
  6. Los Angeles rams: 3.7% ASR, 4.27 ALY
  7. Green Bay Packers: 6.4% ASR, 4.63 ALY
  8. Indianapolis Colts: 6.0% ASR, 4.41 ALY
  9. Minnesota Vikings: 6.7% ASR, 4.60 ALY
  10. Los Angeles Chargers: 6.2% ASR, 4.37 ALY
  11. San Francisco 49ers: 6.9% ASR, 4.53 ALY
  12. Philadelphia Eagles: 6.4% ASR, 4.34 ALY

That places the Saints right at the top, in a tier of their own with the Cowboys. Behind them are the Ravens and Raiders, with the Patriots, Rams, and Packers clustered together. The rest of the group is fairly evenly matched.

So how do the seven best units compare moving into 2020? Four of them are either replacing starters who retired or left in free agency, or working players back into the starting lineup after their 2019 season ended with injuries. The Saints are one of just three teams (joined by the Raiders and Rams) projected to start the 2020 season with the same starting five that they kicked off with in 2019. Of course that could change for all teams after the draft and once injuries start to take their toll, but at this early stage the Saints should rightfully be seen as the NFL’s best offensive line.

The continuity the Saints enjoy will be important, doubly so in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. With teams expected to have less practice time than usual during the offseason, any offensive lines adding new pieces could have a steeper learning curve once games begin. By keeping the same starters together with the same position coaches, the Saints should have an immediate edge not just on other elite units around the league, but the less-impressive lines already playing catch-up.

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