The Miami Marlins (33-44) travel to the City of Brotherly Love Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (36-40) at Citizens Bank Park. Game 1’s first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Marlins lead 4-3.
LHP Trevor Rogers is on the hill for the Marlins. Rogers is 7-4 with a 2.08 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Wednesday vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Rogers is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate in two starts vs. the Phillies this season.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 60 at-bats with a .283/.348/.500 slash line, 17/5 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.
RHP Vince Velasquez is Philly’s projected starter. Velasquez is 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA (57 IP, 30 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 11 starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Philly’s 13-12 loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
- Velasquez picked up a win earlier this season vs. the Phillies (May 25) with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K in a 2-0 victory.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 104 at-bats with a .308/.385/.452 slash line, 31/11 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.
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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:29 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 5, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MARLINS (-120) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup and these lineups are neck-and-neck in WAR this month.
Rogers has better basic pitching numbers vs. Philly this season than Velasquez does against Miami. In Rogers’ two starts vs. the Phillies this season, he had a 60.0% groundball rate and a 26.7% hard-hit rate.
Velasquez had a very fortunate .231 BAbip in his first start against the Marlins this season as it was his fourth-lowest swinging-strike rate and third-worst contact rate of any outing this year.
Velasquez grades in the 36th percentile of hard-hit rate, 20th percentile in exit velocity, eighth percentile in chase rate, 11th percentile in BB% and 31st percentile in expected wOBA.
Moreover, Velasquez hasn’t pitched past the 6th inning in any start this season and Philly’s bullpen has the third-worst WAR in the MLB and by far the most blown saves.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Philly has the best run line record as a home underdog (10-2 ATS) with a plus-1.8 run line margin and Miami is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.4 run line margin.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a quarter unit only because I prefer Miami outright than the total in Marlins-Phillies.
However, both starters have solid pitching peripherals vs. their respective opponents, the Under has cashed in five of the past six Marlins-Phillies meetings and these teams have a combined 11-15 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
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