Tag: Marlins Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (49-61) and Philadelphia Phillies (62-48) meet Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET to cap off a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 8-4

The Marlins have dropped a pair of pitchers’ duels in this series, and that’s nothing new. Miami is 2-9 with an anemic .573 OPS over its last 11 games.

The Phillies remain on a roll. Philadelphia has won 7 straight games and 12 of its last 13. The bats have been solid, but Phillies pitching has also been along for the ride in this surge. The club owns a 2.75 ERA over its last 7 home games.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Cabrera (2-1, 2.61 ERA) has registered a 1.07 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 20 2/3 IP across 4 starts.

  • Came off the IL (elbow) before his last start Friday at Chicago Cubs and tossed 5 no-hit innings against the Cubs with 3 walks and 8 strikeouts.
  • Owns a 4.40 ERA and 9.8 K/9 through 11 MLB starts.

Gibson (7-4, 4.36 ERA) is making his 22nd start this season. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 115 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 runs over 14 IP across his last 2 starts vs. Miami.
  • Owns a 4.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:21 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Phillies -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 3

Money line

Cabrera has benefited from a .174 batting average on balls in play and some fatigue in his 2nd game off the IL would not be a surprise here. That adds to a Philly lean, but PASS on a price more than -170.

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Run line/Against the spread

Solid value here: PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+120) is a strong play.

This play is put into profit territory with the leverage created by the way these offenses have been going, the way the Phils bullpen has pitched of late (much better than their 4.84 surface ERA in the last 30 days) and the way Gibson has held the Fish in check twice in the last 2 months.

Philadelphia has outscored Miami 27-6 in winning 6 straight against the Marlins since June 15.

Over/Under

AVOID: the starters and offenses have indicators moving the needle back and forth. It all spells an average of an 8.5 run total, so there is no value here.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (49-59) and Philadelphia Phillies (60-48) meet Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 6-4

The Marlins continue a road trip that opened by losing 2 of 3 games against the Chicago Cubs. Miami is 2-7 with an anemic .558 OPS over its last 9 games.

The Phillies are rolling. Philadelphia has won 5 straight games and 10 of its last 11. The Phils have banged out an .865 OPS over that span, and 4 of their last 6 wins have been by 5 runs or more.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Garrett (2-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has notched a 1.16 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 58 IP.

  • Has clocked a 5.06 ERA over 53 1/3 career innings on the road.
  • Coming off a season-high 104 pitches in his last turn.
  • The Phillies rank 6th in MLB with a .767 OPS versus lefty pitching.

Wheeler (10-5, 2.69 ERA) has authored a 1.01 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 120 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Blasted by the Marlins on April 17 for 7 ER on 8 H and 3 BB in 3 IP.
  • Has authored a sparkling 1.02 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over his last 53 IP at home and owns a 2.17 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at Citizens since 2020.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Phillies -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-115) | Phillies -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 3

Money line

AVOID: The price on Philly isn’t that out of whack, but the Run Line offers excellent leverage.

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Run line/Against the spread

Lots of value here; move fast. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-105) is a strong play.

With the way these two offenses have been going, the way Wheeler dominates at home, the way Garrett has scuffled on the road, and with the Miami lefty coming off a season-high pitch count, there is more than enough leverage on a multi-run win for the home nine — even in a low-scoring game.

Over/Under

Some under-the-radar pitching signals point to an Under here. However, on a warm and humid evening at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, and with the lefty-righty pitching matchup swinging both clubs around to their best platoon figures, a PASS is recommended.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (31-30) host the Miami Marlins (27-32) Tuesday for the 2nd of their 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies won the series opener 3-2 Monday thanks to 1B Rhys Hoskins‘ walk-off RBI double and a quality start by RHP Aaron Nola (7 IP, 2 ER, 6H, 0 BB and 6 K).

Season series: Miami leads 3-2 with a plus-7 run differential in the 5 games.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Zach Eflin  

Rogers is 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 50 IP across 11 starts.

  • Last start: Won 7-4 Thursday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 10-3 home loss April 16 with 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.

Eflin is 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 55 IP across 10 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 8-3 win Thursday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Marlins: One start, a 7-1 loss in Miami April 15 with 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 3

Money line

BET a half-unit on the MARLINS (+125).

There’s reverse line movement headed toward Miami in the betting market as more than 85% of the cash at Tipico Sportsbook is on the Phillies (-155), but their ML has shrunk from a -160 opener. This is suspicious because oddsmakers typically move the line according to the betting splits.

Miami’s lineup is slightly more productive vs. right-handed pitching (5.04 runs per 9) than Philly’s is against left-handed pitching (4.86 runs per 9).

Rogers’ road ERA is 5.51 runs lower than his home ERA (8.85-3.34) and Eflin has a 5.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP when pitching on 4 days rest.

Also, Miami’s bullpen ranks 10th in xFIP with significantly better contact and swing-and-miss rates than Philly’s, which ranks 23rd in xFIP (4.17), per FanGraphs.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN MARLINS +1.5 (-170).

The Phillies -1.5 (+135) are 13-17 RL as home favorites and 7-14 RL in NL East games. Miami is 17-6 RL as road underdogs, which includes a RL cover in the series opener with Philly.

It’s only a LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-170) because of the price and my favorite look in this game is Miami’s ML.

Over/Under

PASS.

These teams have a combined 14-7 O/U record when these starters get the nod and Monday’s Marlins-Phillies went Under the total so Tuesday’s meeting could ping-pong Over the total.

But Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB, aka is the most pitcher-friendly, Eflin’s pitching peripherals are outstanding and Rogers has elite stuff and will find his groove eventually.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (27-31) start a 3-game set with NL East co-tenant Philadelphia Phillies (30-30) Monday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 2-1 series win at the Houston Astros last weekend, a 3-game sweep at home of the Washington Nationals and a 4-game series split at home vs. the San Francisco Giants before that.

Philly is 9-1 SU over the last 10, but had its 9-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 13-1 blowout loss at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Since firing Joe Girardi as manager June 3, the Phillies are 8-1 SU.

Season series: Miami leads 3-1 with a plus-8 run differential.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Aaron Nola  

Alcantara is 6-2 with a 1.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 2-1 extra-inning home win June 8 vs. the Nationals with 9 scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 4-3 home win April 14 with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.

Nola is 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 74 2/3 IP across 12 starts.

  • Last start: Won 10-0 Wednesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 8 scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 17 K in 2 starts.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 2

Money line

BET the MARLINS (+110).

Miami has a 3-phase edge over the Phillies (-135) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market with the presumed sharp side of the market backing the Marlins.

Alcantara grades higher in most advanced pitching metrics and has a 0.85 ERA in his last 7 starts while Nola has a 3.26 ERA in his last 7 starts. Miami’s bullpen is better than Philly’s in xFIP (4.19-3.76) and K/BB rate (2.64-2.08), per FanGraphs.

Also, Miami’s lineup ranks ahead of Philly’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (115-104), wOBA (.328-.321) and BB/K rate (0.38-0.31), according to FanGraphs.

Finally, nearly 80% of the cash is on the Marlins but roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Phillies, per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is the one to follow.

BET the MARLINS (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Marlins +1.5 (-190) is just too pricey even though Miami is 16-6 RL as road underdogs and the Phillies -1.5 (+155) are 13-16 RL as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

Both teams have their ace on the mound Monday, Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB (aka the most pitcher-friendly) and the Marlins are 4-7 O/U in Alcantara’s 11 starts.

But, Marlins-Phillies is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 meetings, Philly is 7-4-1 O/U in Nola’s 11 starts and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total. Most of the action is on the Under, but the line has ticked down from an 8-run opener, according to Pregame.com.

This RLM is suspicious hence the LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) play the finale of a three-game set Sunday at Citizens Bank Park following the completion of Saturday’s suspended game. First pitch is tenatively scheduled for 2:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Saturday’s action is set to resume at 1:05 p.m. ET as play was suspended in the 10th inning due to rain with things squared up 2-2. Sunday’s action is set to start 20-40 minutes following the completion of Saturday’s game.

LHP Braxton Garrett is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.77 WHIP with 8 K and 5 BB over 11 1/3 IP across two starts and one relief appearance.

Garrett last started June 14 at St. Louis. The lefty hurled 4 1/3 IP allowing 2 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 3 K taking a no-decision in the Marlins’ 4-2 loss.

RHP Zach Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 6-5 with a 2.26 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 across 119 2/3 IP in 18 starts.

Wheeler had a rare poor outing last time out July 7 at the Chicago Cubs, yielding 7 runs (4 earned) across 5 2/3 IP. His ERA shot up from 2.05 to 2.26 as a result.

Wheeler faced the Marlins May 18 at “The Bank”, allowing 1 unearned run, 5 hits and no walks with 10 strikeouts across 7 innings in a no-decision.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:24 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-110) | Phillies -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies (-225) are a little expensive with Wheeler on the bump. He handled the Marlins in a rather impressive fashion in his previous start against them this season.

AVOID, and play the run line as a more affordable alternative.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PHILLIES -1.5 (-110) are a better play on the run line. Miami will have a hard time getting the bats going against Wheeler just like they did back in May, and Philly should grab some runs against the Marlins hurlers.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8 (-115) is the lean here, despite that we should get some good pitching from Wheeler. Pitchers will be contending with a 10-13 mph wind blowing out to the power alley in right-center field. It won’t go Over by much, but it should inch across the finish line late.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) continue their four-game series Saturday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 3’s first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Friday to open the series with the Phillies winning the first game 5-2, and Miami took the second 7-0.

Season series: Marlins lead 6-5.

RHP Zach Thompson is on the hill for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 across five starts in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 8-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves July 4.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 5 BB and 14 K in three starts.

RHP Vince Velasquez is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Velasquez is 3-4 with a 5.35 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 14 starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-5, with 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 2 K at the Boston Red Sox July 9.
  • Velasquez is 2-0 against Miami this season with 0.00 ERA, 13 IP, 5 H, 3 BB and 12 K in two starts.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 125 at-bats with a .280/.353/.400 slash line, 35/12 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 7, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-105) for a half unit since Miami’s bullpen is significantly better than Philly’s.

For example, Marlins relievers allow the fewest home runs per nine innings and are sixth in WAR while the Phillies’ bullpen has the most blown saves and ranks 27th in WAR.

However, their lineups are equally below average vs. right-handed pitching, and the starting pitching matchup is a toss-up.

Velasquez pitched very well in his first two outings against the Marlins but he has a 6.89 ERA over his last seven starts, which includes a seven-inning scoreless effort June 29 vs. Miami.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t “like” Miami enough to lay it with the Marlins -1.5 (+145), and Miami is 2-7 ATS this season as a road favorite with a minus-2.6 run line margin; whereas Philly has an MLB-high 82.2% cover rate as a home dog (13-3 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-105) for a half unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the “sharps” have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener with all their Over action.

Furthermore, the Marlins have played to the Over in four straight, and the Phillies have gone Over the total in their last six against teams with a losing record.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (39-50) and Philadelphia Phillies (44-44) kick-off their second halves of the season with a seven-inning doubleheader Friday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Marlins lead 5-4.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s projected starter. Alcantara is 5-8 with a 3.09 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 across 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-1, with 4 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K July 8 vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Alcantara is 1-1 vs. the Marlins this year with 1.29 ERA (14 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 141 at-bats with a .248/.323/.397 slash line, 35/16 K/BB, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.

LHP Matt Moore is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Moore is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over six starts and six relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 1 K in Philadelphia’s 11-2 victory at the Boston Red Sox Saturday.
  • Moore appeared in Philly’s 6-0 loss to Miami May 20 with a stat line of 2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .379/.400/.552 slash line, 7/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 3, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-125) for a half unit because Miami is 17-29 on the road this season, 10-18 vs. lefty starters while ranking in the bottom-5 against left-handed pitching in advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K.

That being said, it’s only a seven-inning game, and Alcantara has good stuff. Alcantara ranks in the 75th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA, exit velocity, chase rate and barrel rate.

Also, Alcantara is 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park for his career with a 1.03 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB rate in four starts.

Furthermore, if this game goes sideways for either or both starters then Miami’s bullpen is far more reliable than Philly’s. The Marlins’ relievers are sixth in WAR, and the Phillies’ bullpen is 27th in WAR.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Miami has only covered two of its eight games as a road favorite this season, and the Marlins -1.5 (+145) isn’t a big enough payout considering their ATS record as a road favorite and this being a seven-inning game.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 6.5 (-110) for 1 unit because Moore has given up only four earned runs over 13 1/3 innings pitching in his last three starts, Alcantara has been dominant in Philly throughout his career, and the Under has cashed in four of the previous five Marlins-Phillies meetings.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (34-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) have split the first two games of their three-game series and will finish up Thursday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 4-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 91 IP over 16 starts.

Lopez has stepped up his game lately posting a 2.57 ERA and 48/6 K/BB in 42 IP across his last seven starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 90 IP over 15 starts.

Eflin has faced the Marlins twice so far this season, allowing 5 ER in 12 IP with a 12/2 K/BB. He’s had home run issues on the road, but in six starts at home has put up a 2.13 ERA with a 37/3 K/BB and 3 homers allowed in 38 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are up on the Marlins by 3.5 games in the standings but the Marlins are far superior in run differential (+21 vs. -24). Given how well Lopez has pitched lately they also look to have the slight pitching edge in this matchup. Back the MARLINS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by two or fewer runs and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, there doesn’t appear to be enough value to take +1.5 runs with either the Marlins (-210) or Phillies (-210). It’s probably best to just PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night as the Marlins won 11-6. That was the second time in the last five games they had put up 11 runs.

With two solid pitchers taking the mound Thursday another shootout seems unlikely but neither offense is likely to be completely shut down. The final score should end up pretty close to this total but look for OVER 8 (-105) to hit in the end.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (34-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) have split the first two games of their three-game series and will finish up Thursday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 4-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 91 IP over 16 starts.

Lopez has stepped up his game lately posting a 2.57 ERA and 48/6 K/BB in 42 IP across his last seven starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 90 IP over 15 starts.

Eflin has faced the Marlins twice so far this season, allowing 5 ER in 12 IP with a 12/2 K/BB. He’s had home run issues on the road, but in six starts at home has put up a 2.13 ERA with a 37/3 K/BB and 3 homers allowed in 38 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are up on the Marlins by 3.5 games in the standings but the Marlins are far superior in run differential (+21 vs. -24). Given how well Lopez has pitched lately they also look to have the slight pitching edge in this matchup. Back the MARLINS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by two or fewer runs and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, there doesn’t appear to be enough value to take +1.5 runs with either the Marlins (-210) or Phillies (-210). It’s probably best to just PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night as the Marlins won 11-6. That was the second time in the last five games they had put up 11 runs.

With two solid pitchers taking the mound Thursday another shootout seems unlikely but neither offense is likely to be completely shut down. The final score should end up pretty close to this total but look for OVER 8 (-105) to hit in the end.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadephia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (33-45) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (37-40) match up Wednesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jordan Holloway is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Holloway has 14 K and 10 BB in 17 2/3 IP over two starts and six relief appearances.

In Holloway’s two starts, he has pitched a total of just 6 2/3 IP, allowing 5 ER along with an uninspiring 3/7 K/BB.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 90 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

Nola had his worst outing of the season two starts ago when he allowed 6 ER in 2 1/3 IP at San Francisco. He rebounded last time out, striking out 12 in 5 1/3 scoreless frames Friday against the Mets.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-110) | home -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are 22-14 at home this year, while the Marlins have struggled to the tune of a 15-27 record on the road. Nola gives Philadelphia a clear pitching edge but it’s probably best to PASS on this line and find value elsewhere.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Holloway has been extremely lucky to post such a low ERA to this point. He had serious control issues in the minors in 2019 (6.3 BB/9) and it doesn’t appear he’s solved them. He has been bailed out so far by a .224 BABIP and no homers allowed.

The Philadelphia bats should have a big day against Holloway and come out on top by at least two runs. Back the PHILLIES -1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Holloway’s weak skills suggest he is a poor bet to hold the Philadelphia offense in check. On the other side, Nola’s 3.97 ERA represents his highest mark since he posted a 4.78 ERA back in 2016.

Nola does get to face an offense that ranks 25th in runs per game on the road. However, the right-hander has been pretty inconsistent lately having allowed 4 or more ER in four of his last nine starts. The Phillies will get most of the job done, but Miami should also do their part in pushing this total OVER 8.5 (-105).

 

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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