Tag: Marlins Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Miami Marlins (45-76) and New York Mets (62-59) open a 3-game set at Citi Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 5-5

The Marlins split a 2-game set at the Philadelphia Phillies. After taking the Tuesday opener 5-0 as +182 underdogs, they lost 9-5 as +144 underdogs Wednesday as the Over (8.5) hit. Miami is 5th in the NL East and has less than a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.

The Mets have dropped 5 of their last 6 games and are coming off a 2-1 series loss to the visiting Oakland A’s. They wrapped up the series with a 7-6 loss as -184 favorites Thursday with the Over (8) cashing. New York is 3rd in the NL East, 9 games behind the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, and 2 games back of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

RHP Roddery Muñoz vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Muñoz (2-6, 5.67 ERA) makes his 15th start and 16th appearance. The rookie has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 74 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 9-8 home setback in 10 innings against San Diego Padres Saturday
• 2024 road stats: 1-3, 4.74 ERA (38 IP, 20 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 7 starts
• Career vs. Mets: 0-1, 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 0.73 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 2 starts in 2024

Manaea (8-5, 3.44 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 123 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 4-0 defeat at Seattle Mariners Saturday
• 2024 home stats: 4-3, 3.81 ERA (59 IP, 25 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 11 starts
• 2024 vs. Marlins: 1-1, 6.30 ERA (10 IP, 7 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 in 2 starts
• Career vs. Marlins: 1-2, 5.85 ERA (20 IP, 13 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 4 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:48 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins +185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Mets -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-110) | Mets -1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 4

Moneyline

The Mets (-225) should bounce back after blowing a 5-run lead to the A’s. Even though the Marlins are the 2nd-worst team in the NL (behind the Colorado Rockies), betting lines with this much vig makes it nearly impossible to stay profitable in MLB.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Mets have struggled recently, but their last 8 wins have been by multiple runs. Nine of the Marlins’ last 10 losses have been by 2 or more runs, and 3 of Manaea’s last 4 starts have resulted in multi-run wins for the Mets.

BET METS -1.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The Over has hit in 4 straight for the Mets and in 7 of 9 for the Marlins. Muñoz has allowed 6 runs in 3 of his last 6 starts, and New York has scored 6 or more in back-to-back games.

BET OVER 8.5 (-105).

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The Miami Marlins (23-44) and New York Mets (29-37) cap off a 3-game NL East series at Citi Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Miami leads 3-2

Miami won Tuesday’s opener 4-2 and then lost 10-4 Wednesday. The Marlins have scored just 2.44 runs per game (RPG) on a .557 OPS this month.

New York filed 2 doubles and 3 home runs in Wednesday’s tilt. The Mets own a robust .840 OPS over their last 1o games.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

RHP Roddery Munoz vs. RHP Luis Severino

Munoz (1-2, 5.95 ERA) makes his 5th start. He owns a 1.42 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 19 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 8-0 setback vs. Cleveland Guardians Saturday
• Has never faced Mets before

Severino (4-2, 3.25 ERA) is lined up for his 13th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 72 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 9-1 victory at Washington Nationals June 5
• Career vs. Marlins: 1-0, 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 11 K in 2 starts
• Has benefited from .246 batting average on balls in play

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Marlins +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (+100)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Mets 5

Moneyline

The Marlins are 5-1 across their last 6 getaway games.

The Over figures as the strongest play in this match-up, but bettors seeking a side would be wise to lean toward MIAMI (+168). That price is available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Per ESPN and albeit a small sample size, current Marlins batters own an aggregate .772 OPS against Severino. He’s pitching on extra-long rest, which may chip away at some of New York’s advantage.

Severino and the Mets are worthy of being the favorite in this game but not to the level these tags represent.

Run line/Against the spread

A tad too much outlay to get the Fish plus a cushion. PASS.

Over/Under

Both clubs have Over figures over .500 for the season. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, the Over is 4-1.

Both offenses have been undone by BABIP numbers under the league average. In particular, the Marlins have been hurt by a .278 BABIP in high-leverage situations, and the Mets have worked with less base traffic alongside a .279 BABIP when leading off an inning.

Those factors add up. Miami has averaged 3.60 RPG, and New York has averaged 4.42 RPG. Peg both clubs as having more offense than what shows on the surface.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-115).

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The Miami Marlins (22-43) and New York Mets (28-36) open a 3-game series on Tuesday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Miami leads 2-1

Miami lost 6-3 to the Cleveland Guardians Sunday while failing to cover as a +105 home underdog. Miami allowed Cleveland to go on a 5-0 run after leading 2-1. The Marlins have lost back-to-back games.

New York came away with a 6-5 win over the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday while covering as a +125 road underdog. The Mets scored 3 runs in the 9th inning to come back from down 4-3 and survived a 1-run bottom of the 9th to pick up the comeback win over Philly.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Tylor Megill

Luzardo (2-5, 5.30 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 56 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 2 K in a 9-5 loss vs. Tampa Bay Tuesday
• Career vs. Mets: 3-2, 3.00 ERA (39 IP, 13 ER), 27 H, 17 BB, 44 K in 7 starts

Megill (1-2, 3.00 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 21 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K in an 8-7 win over Washington on June 3
• Career vs. Miami: 2-1, 3.18 ERA (17 IP, 6 ER), 15 H, 6 BB, 16 K in 4 appearances (3 starts)

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 7:37 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Mets -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-194) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Marlins 3

Moneyline

BET METS (-134).

New York is 4-1 in its last 5 games and is 6-4 in its last 10 while the Marlins are only 3-7 in their last 10. The Mets are also 2-1 in their last 3 meetings with the Marlins in New York.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

If you like New York to cover here, its odds are better on the moneyline, so place your wager there or on the Over/Under.

If you like Miami to cover here then I’d also recommend avoiding this bet as a +1.5 (-194) underdog is not worth the risk of betting on. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-110).

The Over hit in Miami’s last outing and also hit in its last road outing. For New York, the Over is 3-1 in its last 4 home games and is 6-3-1 in its last 10 overall.

The Over has also hit in each of the last 3 Miami-New York matchups and going 5-2 in the last 7 matchups.

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The Miami Marlins (82-76) and the New York Mets (72-86) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Citi Field after splitting a doubleheader Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 8-4

The Marlins were pounded 11-2 in the doubleheader opener on Wednesday afternoon, while Miami picked up a much-needed 4-2 victory in the nightcap behind RHP Johnny Cueto and a solid effort by the bullpen.

Miami is now tied with the Chicago Cubs for the 3rd and final NL Wild Card spot with just 4 games remaining in the regular season. The Marlins wind up the season in Pittsburgh for 3 games, while Chicago finishes in Milwaukee.

The San Diego Padres are mathematically still alive, too, 3 1/2 games back of the 2 combatants, but it has just 3 games left, essentially needing Chicago and Miami to lose all remaining games, while San Diego has to win out.

The Marlins are just 4-4 in the past 8 games overall, with the Over going 4-1-1 in the previous 6 contests.

The Mets have been a major thorn in the side of the Marlins, going 3-2 in 5 meetings since Sept. 18. New York is just 1-5 in the past 6 games overall, with a slight lean to the Over by a 3-2-1 margin during the 6-game span.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP David Peterson

Luzardo (10-9, 3.73 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 171 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
• 2023 road splits: 5-5, 4.86 ERA (63 IP, 34 ER), 11 HR, .287 OBA in 12 starts

Peterson (3-8, 5.37 ERA) makes his 21st start and 27th overall appearance. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 104 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-4 road loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Thursday
• 2023 home splits: 2-2, 3.18 ERA (51 IP, 18 ER), 5 HR, .255 OBA in 9 starts and 4 relief appearances

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:06 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

The METS (+110) might not be going to the postseason, similar to the crosstown New York Yankees, but they have certainly relished the role of spoiler down the stretch. New York has been a thorn in the side of Miami, and should the Marlins (-135) fail to make the postseason, the struggles against the sub-.500 Mets will be a major reason why.

We’ll get another battle of southpaws, similar to Game 1 of Wednesday’s doubleheader. That game went to the Mets, and the series finale should also go to the home side, which will be a major blow to Miami.

Run line/Against the spread

The METS +1.5 (-160) aren’t priced out of line if you just can’t bring yourself to take New York straight up, but feel this will be a tight game.

As an underdog on the run line, New York is 7-2, winning 3 of those games outright. While the Mets have been long-since eliminated from the postseason chase, they continue to fight hard, and have not waved the white flag.

Over/Under

The OVER 8 (-105) is the slight lean. We saw the Over cash in Game 1 in a battle of left-handed starters on Wednesday, and that was despite a jetstream blowing into the faces of the batters from straightaway center field.

We’ll get another strong breeze blowing 8-11 mph from right-center field to home plate, but that didn’t matter Wednesday, and it won’t matter Thursday, either.

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The Miami Marlins (81-75) and the New York Mets (71-85) begin a 3-game series Wednesday at Citi Field, after Tuesday’s series opener was postponed. First pitch for Game 1 of a day-night doubleheader is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 7-3

The good news for the Marlins as Tuesday’s series opener at Citi Field was washed out was that the Chicago Cubs lost Tuesday, so Miami climbed to just a half-game back. The Cincinnati Reds are breathing down the necks of the Marlins, sitting just a game behind, although Miami has 2 games in hand on Cincinnati. The Arizona Diamondbacks won Tuesday, and are 1 1/2 games clear of the Marlins in the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Miami picked up 2 crucial wins in a 3-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and it is a respectable 6-3 in the past 9 games overall. Of course, 2 of those 3 losses came at home against the Mets Sept. 18-20 in South Florida.

New York enters on a 4-game skid, after getting swept in Philadelphia over the weekend in a 4-game set. However, it is a surprising 7-3 against the Marlins this season. The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 outings for the Mets.

The weather forecast is much better for Wednesday, with partly cloudy conditions and nearly a 0% chance of precipitation. There will be a stiff northeast wind blowing 11-14 mph directly from center field to home plate, aiding pitchers.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi

Garrett (9-6, 3.53 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st overall appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 155 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home win vs. New York Mets Tuesday
• 2023 road splits: 6-2, 2.52 ERA (75 IP, 21 ER), 5 HR, .225 OBA in 14 starts

Lucchesi (3-0, 2.88 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-3 road loss vs. the Miami Marlins last Tuesday
• 2023 home splits: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 2 HR, .226 OBA in 3 starts

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:07 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Mets 2

Moneyline

The MARLINS (-130) are the play in Game 1 on Wednesday behind Garrett. I liked him for Tuesday’s game, but he never got a chance. He is 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA across 75 IP in 14 road assignments this season, and teams are hitting nearly 50 points lower against him on the road than in South Florida.

In addition, the sunshine should do him some good, and Braxton has managed a 2-0 record and sparkling 2.20 ERA in 9 daytime starts and 1 relief appearance over 49 IP this season.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS –1.5 (+125) are the play, but go lightly. Remember, Miami is just 3-7 in 10 meetings with New York this season, although the Mets +1.5 (-150) have looked rather disinterested over the past week, and are just playing out the string.

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-110) is a solid play. We get a couple of lefties throwing with a lot of confidence lately, and there will be a stiff wind blowing into the face of the batters, knocking down any potential long balls.

The Under is 3-1 in the previous 4 outings for Lucchesi, too, while the total has also gone low in 3 of the previous 4 assignments for Garrett, too. The biggest factor is that gusty wind blowing in, though.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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The Miami Marlins (81-75) and the New York Mets (71-85) begin a 3-game series Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 7-3

The Marlins took 2 of 3 games from the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend at loanDepot park to stay within a game of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs for one of the final 2 NL Wild Card spots, while staying 1 1/2 games clear of the Cincinnati Reds.

The Mets have long since been eliminated from postseason contention, sitting 14 games under .500. However, perhaps things could be different if New York had played Miami more. The Mets have won 7 of 10 meetings with the Marlins, including 2 of 3 in Miami last Monday-Wednesday.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi

Garrett (9-6, 3.53 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st overall appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 155 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home win vs. New York Mets Tuesday
• 2023 road splits: 6-2, 2.52 ERA (75 IP, 21 ER), 5 HR, .225 OBA in 14 starts

Lucchesi (3-0, 2.88 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-3 road loss vs. the Miami Marlins last Tuesday
• 2023 home splits: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 2 HR, .226 OBA in 3 starts

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Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Mets 2

Moneyline

The MARLINS (-130) are worth a look behind the southpaw Garrett, who was on the bump last Tuesday when Miami picked up a rare win against the Mets down in South Florida. The Fish are 3-1 in the past 4 starts with Garrett on the hill, and they’re 3-1 in the past 4 road assignments for Garrett, too.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS –1.5 (+135) are worth playing lightly on the run line, but it’s a risky play based on Miami’s struggles against N.Y. this season.

Still, the Mets have dropped 4 straight games, including 0-2 in the past 2 games as underdogs on the run line. New York has been pretty competitive lately, but the wheels might be coming off.

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-110) is worth a roll of the dice.

The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 starts for Lucchesi and Garrett and is 5-3-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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