These 4 Baltimore Ravens players will be instrumental to a win or loss against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13, making them guys to watch
The Baltimore Ravens get arguably their toughest test of the 2019 season when they play a clone of themselves in the San Francisco 49ers. With a physical run-first offense and stout defense, both Baltimore and San Francisco will look to beat each other up en route to a Week 13 win.
With the weather conditions playing a factor this week as the wintery mix continues to fall on M&T Bank Stadium, these four Ravens players will have the biggest impact on the final score.
TE Mark Andrews:
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images
Baltimore tight ends lead the league with four touchdown receptions in the red zone since Week 9, according to Inside Edge. Three of them have gone to Andrews, making him the easy pick here.
Though the field conditions are conducive to a rushing attack, the Ravens would be wise to incorporate a little play-action when they get into the red zone to throw San Francisco off balance and hopefully create some wide-open targets. If they do, Andrews is likely going to be the guy standing uncovered in the end zone.
A look at the fantasy appeal of the Ravens players heading into Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams.
Monday Night Football in Week 12 sees the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens travel to Los Angeles to take on the 6-4 Rams. The Ravens are on a six-game winning streak and have won their last four games by double-digits. The reigning NFC champion Rams have won three of their last four, but find themselves in third place in the NFC West behind the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers and the 8-2 Seattle Seahawks.
Here, I’ll offer my thoughts on players to start and players to sit this week. As ever, Lamar Jackson is playing, so if you’ve got him, you’re starting him.
Start at RB2 – RB, Mark Ingram
Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images
One of these weeks I am confident that I will correctly asses the fantasy value of Mark Ingram. I mean, I recommended sitting him last week due to concerns regarding his volume and production. Ingram, true to form, carried the ball only 13 times for 48 yards, the third time in four games he’s been held below four yards per attempt. But then almost out of nowhere, he catches three passes, two of which result in touchdowns. Maddening.
The Rams have been solid and unwelcoming to running backs this season. Only one running back has amassed more than 45 yards against them since Week 8. No running back has scored a rushing touchdown against them since Week 6. Tailbacks are not exactly enjoying themselves as pass catchers against them either. Tarik Cohen had five receptions against them last week, but that was the first time since Week 8 any back has had more than four catches in a game against the Rams. They’ve not allowed a running back to top 35 receiving yards since Week 1.
In his current form, I have to acknowledge that Ingram is a touchdown-dependent fantasy asset. He is not commanding a large workload, as evidenced by the fact that he has 15 or fewer carries in each of his last five games. Nor is he an every-down player, as he has played less than 66% of the Ravens offensive snaps in all but one game in 2019. If you have no other option, then he can be plugged in as an RB2. But we can’t expect him to score two receiving touchdowns ever again.
There doesn’t seem to be any one way to stop Lamar Jackson this season. But there are coverages that might just slow him down.
Through the first 12 weeks of the 2019 NFL season, there appears to be no way to stop Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Not only is the current NFL MVP favorite running the ball at a historic rate — 781 yards and six touchdowns on 116 carries, and on pace to break Michael Vick’s 2006 record of 1,036 yards for a quarterback — but he’s also improved exponentially as a passer from his first to his second season. The same guy Hall of Fame executive and ESPN analyst Bill Polian said should switch to receiver when he came to the NFL (an opinion Polian has since recanted) has completed 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Jackson hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 5, when he threw three against the Steelers one week after firing two against the Browns.
It’s been all sunshine and rainbows for the Ravens since then — they haven’t lost a game since Cleveland’s Week 4 upset, and people all over the league are trying to figure out how to at least slow Jackson down, as a runner or as a passer.
Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman recently spoke with two NFL assistant coaches this week, who threw five counters out as possibilities: Tricking him with shifting coverages, a less-aggressive form of pressure called a “mush rush.” focusing on his running backs, using as much defensive speed as possible against him, and keeping him off the field. Both coaches agreed that the final of those five options is the only one guaranteed to work.
So, when you aren’t keeping Jackson off the field, what do you do? One interesting wrinkle in Baltimore’s 2019 offense is how heavily dependent it is on tight ends. Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, and Hayden Hurst have combined for 44% of Baltimore’s 284 targets, 46.2% of the team’s 197 receptions, 45.1% of the team’s 2,346 yards, and eight of the team’s 20 passing touchdowns.
(Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
With that in mind, let’s look at how teams are covering the Ravens, and how well it goes. Per Sports Info Solutions, when facing Cover-0 (a man-to-man blitz-heavy coverage with no deep defenders), Jackson has completed 13 of 18 passes for 128 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. When facing Cover-1 (man coverage with one deep defender), he’s completed 43 of 69 attempts for 598 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. Against Cover-2 (zone coverage with two deep defenders) and 2-Man (man coverage with two deep defenders), he’s completed 33 of 40 passes for 373 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
If you’re an NFL defensive coordinator and you’re reading this, you’re probably developing a small headache right about now.
But, there are small shards of hope. Against Cover-3 (zone defense with one deep safety), Jackson has completed 61 of 98 passes for 757 yards, five touchdowns… and three interceptions. Jackson’s two other picks this season? One came against Cover-4 (a zone defense that breaks deep coverage into quarters and gives safeties the option to bracket deep receivers), and the other came against Tampa-2 (a variant of Cover-2 in which the inside linebacker can drop into intermediate or deep middle coverage).
Tampa-2 is the coverage we’ll discuss for our purposes. Ostensibly a Cover-2 scheme, it give the quarterback more of a Cover-3 look with the linebacker dropping. The Browns used this coverage to nab a Jackson pass to Andrews in Week 4, and safety Jermaine Whitehead (No. 35) picks it off in the end zone. But watch linebacker Joe Schobert (No. 53) as he trails Andrews down the middle of the field, enforcing the middle coverage and making Jackson’s throw far more difficult.
So, the combination of Cover-3 and Tampa-2 would seem to be the one heady brew that might counter Jackson enough to at least make things tougher for him. Throwing a linebacker into coverage against a heavy-tight end offense is generally a good matchup, especially if it’s an athletic linebacker like Schobert. Neither Cover-3 nor Tampa-2 are man coverages, which is good — you absolutely do not want to run man coverage against Jackson, because man coverage forces your cornerbacks to turn their backs to Jackson when trailing receivers, and at that point, you’re just giving Jackson another free lane to run.
In these zone schemes, you still have to have your other linebackers read run as much as possible against Baltimore’s complex and highly effective rushing attack, but at this point, defensive coordinators are going to have to take whatever they can get. Jackson has two passing attempts, no completions to his teammates, and that one interception against Tampa-2, so why not run it more often? Tampa-2 can be vulnerable to the run if your linebackers aren’t reading their keys correctly, but it’s also worth remembering that the Buccaneers of the Warren Sapp/Derrick Brooks era played a ton of Tampa-2 (hence the name), and Brooks was one of the few linebackers who could also successfully spy Vick in his prime.
We’ll see if opposing defenses alter their strategies through the last six games of the season. If not, expect Jackson and the rest of Baltimore’s offense to keep running and throwing all over the rest of the league.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
There doesn’t seem to be any one way to stop Lamar Jackson this season. But there are coverages that might just slow him down.
Through the first 12 weeks of the 2019 NFL season, there appears to be no way to stop Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Not only is the current NFL MVP favorite running the ball at a historic rate — 781 yards and six touchdowns on 116 carries, and on pace to break Michael Vick’s 2006 record of 1,036 yards for a quarterback — but he’s also improved exponentially as a passer from his first to his second season. The same guy Hall of Fame executive and ESPN analyst Bill Polian said should switch to receiver when he came to the NFL (an opinion Polian has since recanted) has completed 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Jackson hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 5, when he threw three against the Steelers one week after firing two against the Browns.
It’s been all sunshine and rainbows for the Ravens since then — they haven’t lost a game since Cleveland’s Week 4 upset, and people all over the league are trying to figure out how to at least slow Jackson down, as a runner or as a passer.
Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman recently spoke with two NFL assistant coaches this week, who threw five counters out as possibilities: Tricking him with shifting coverages; a less-aggressive form of pressure called a “mush rush”; focusing on his running backs; using as much defensive speed as possible against him; keeping him off the field. Both coaches agreed that the final of those five options is the only one guaranteed to work.
So, when you aren’t keeping Jackson off the field, what do you do? One interesting wrinkle in Baltimore’s 2019 offense is how heavily dependent it is on tight ends. Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, and Hayden Hurst have combined for 44% of Baltimore’s 284 targets, 46.2% of the team’s 197 receptions, 45.1% of the team’s 2,346 yards, and eight of the team’s 20 passing touchdowns.
(Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
With that in mind, let’s look at how teams are covering the Ravens, and how well it goes. Per Sports Info Solutions, when facing Cover-0 (a man-to-man blitz-heavy coverage with no deep defenders), Jackson has completed 13 of 18 passes for 128 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. When facing Cover-1 (man coverage with one deep defender), he’s completed 43 of 69 attempts for 598 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. Against Cover-2 (zone coverage with two deep defenders) and 2-Man (man coverage with two deep defenders), he’s completed 33 of 40 passes for 373 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
If you’re an NFL defensive coordinator and you’re reading this, you’re probably developing a small headache right about now.
But, there are small shards of hope. Against Cover-3 (zone defense with one deep safety), Jackson has completed 61 of 98 passes for 757 yards, five touchdowns… and three interceptions. Jackson’s two other picks this season? One came against Cover-4 (a zone defense that breaks deep coverage into quarters and gives safeties the option to bracket deep receivers), and the other came against Tampa-2 (a variant of Cover-2 in which the inside linebacker can drop into intermediate or deep middle coverage).
Tampa-2 is the coverage we’ll discuss for our purposes. Ostensibly a Cover-2 scheme, it gives the quarterback more of a Cover-3 look with the linebacker dropping. The Browns used this coverage to nab a Jackson pass to Andrews in Week 4, and safety Jermaine Whitehead (No. 35) picks it off in the end zone. But watch linebacker Joe Schobert (No. 53) as he trails Andrews down the middle of the field, enforcing the middle coverage and making Jackson’s throw far more difficult.
So, the combination of Cover-3 and Tampa-2 would seem to be the one heady brew that might counter Jackson enough to at least make things tougher for him. Throwing a linebacker into coverage against a heavy-tight end offense is generally a good matchup, especially if it’s an athletic linebacker like Schobert. Neither Cover-3 nor Tampa-2 are man coverages, which is good — you absolutely do not want to run man coverage against Jackson, because man coverage forces your cornerbacks to turn their backs to Jackson when trailing receivers, and at that point, you’re just giving Jackson another free lane to run.
In these zone schemes, you still have to have your other linebackers read run as much as possible against Baltimore’s complex and highly effective rushing attack, but at this point, defensive coordinators are going to have to take whatever they can get. Jackson has two passing attempts, no completions to his teammates, and that one interception against Tampa-2, so why not run it more often? Tampa-2 can be vulnerable to the run if your linebackers aren’t reading their keys correctly, but it’s also worth remembering that the Buccaneers of the Warren Sapp/Derrick Brooks era played a ton of Tampa-2 (hence the name), and Brooks was one of the few linebackers who could also successfully spy Vick in his prime.
We’ll see if opposing defenses alter their strategies through the last six games of the season. If not, expect Jackson and the rest of Baltimore’s offense to keep running and throwing all over the rest of the league.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
A look at what Ravens players to start, and which to sit, for Week 11 against the Houston Texans.
Sunday sees a clash between two division leaders as the Baltimore Ravens lock horns with the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have won their last five games at sit atop the AFC North with a 7-2 record. The Texans are on a two-game winning streak and are fresh from a bye following their rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars in London two weeks ago.
Here, I’ll offer my thoughts on players to start and players to sit this week. As ever, Lamar Jackson is playing, so if you’ve got him you’re starting him.
SIT – RB, Mark Ingram
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Running backs have not enjoyed a great deal of success against the Texans in 2019. A tailback hasn’t scored more than 12.4 PPR points against them since Week 5. They’ve allowed only two running back rushing scores as well.
Ingram continues to operate as the lead back for Baltimore. But it would be inaccurate to describe him as a workhorse. He has gone four games since his last 20 opportunity game (carries + targets), and he’s been held below 50 rushing yards in four of his last five outings. He remains largely dependent on touchdowns with regards to his fantasy output and has finished higher than RB31 just once in games in which he didn’t find the endzone.
The Texans have been slightly more welcoming to running backs in the passing game, with seven running backs catching at least five passes against them this year. However, Ingram has commanded more than two targets in a game only three times this season and has exceeded 22 receiving yards just once since Week 3.
Top-ranked DFS PRO Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite Daily Fantasy Football plays at various salary ranges for Week 11 of the NFL. Find out who Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Top-ranked DFS PRO Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite Daily Fantasy Football plays at various salary ranges for Week 11 of the NFL. Find out who Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
QUARTERBACKS
LAMAR JACKSON- $7700 DRAFTKINGS, $8800 FANDUEL
Lamar Jackson is averaging 28 DraftKings points per game and is coming off another dominating performance where he performed the spin move of the season. Now he has a matchup versus a Texan team who ranks 26th against opposing quarterbacks. The Texans are getting gashed by both the run and the pass which should lead to a big game for Jackson in Week 11. He will have the safest floor of the week and should provide a high ceiling as well.
DAK PRESCOTT- $6700 DRAFTKINGS, $8100 FANDUEL
The Cowboys need a win to stay in the playoff hunt and they will rely heavily on Dak Prescott for the rest of the season. Dak has averaged 24 DraftKings points per game and is coming off a 29 point performance versus a stingy Viking defense. I view this as a bounce-back spot for both the Cowboys and Dak. We can easily see a 30 point performance versus the suspect Detroit Lions defense. Detroit is ranked 29th against opposing quarterbacks and allowing 272 yards in the air per game. Where other quarterbacks will be dealing with harsh winter weather Dak will playing in a dome and he should find the warmth in your lineups as well in Week 11.
RUNNING BACKS
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY- $10500 DRAFTKINGS, $10500 FANDUEL
Christian McCaffrey is a stud and he should be locked into your lineups every week regardless of who he plays against. He is having an MVP caliber season and is averaging 32 points per game. He gets a great matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons who have trouble covering pass-catching running backs. McCaffrey should feast and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 2 touchdown and 200 all-purpose yards out of him in Week 11.
JOSH JACOBS- $7000 DRAFTKINGS, $8000 FANDUEL
Josh Jacobs is highly involved in this Raider offense. As each week grows, he becomes more and more the focal point of this offense. Coming into Week 11 he is averaging 17 points per game and I think that goes up after this game versus Cincinnati. The Bengals are allowing 173 rushing yards per game and continue to get torched each week by opposing offenses. The Bengals have given up on the season and a big game is coming for Jacobs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
MICHAEL THOMAS- $9900 DRAFTKINGS, $9000 FANDUEL
The Saints shockingly lost to the Atlanta Falcons and knocked a bunch of people out of their survivor pools. Thomas didn’t disappoint and had another monster game. He is expensive but your paying for his consistency and upside in your cash lineups. He is averaging 114 receiving yards and 25 fantasy points per game. He is the equivalent of Christian McCaffrey at the wide receiver position and he is a lock in my cash and tournament lineups. The matchup provides a boost to an already great play in Thomas. Tampa Bay ranks 31st against wide receivers and should be a lock in your lineups.
JOHN BROWN- $6400 DRAFTKINGS, $5900 FANDUEL
Brown is quietly on pace for a 1200 yard receiving year. He is averaging 75 yards receiving and 14 fantasy points per game. He provides consistency and a nice value on both sites. The Buffalo Bills are coming off a tough loss to the Cleveland Browns and head to Miami for a must-win game. I expect the Bills to pepper Brown early and often with targets to take advantage of the matchup versus the weak Miami secondary and you should do the same in your lineups.
TIGHT ENDS
MARK ANDREWS- $6100 DRAFTKINGS, $6900 FANDUEL
Mark Andrews bounced back in a big way with a 23 point performance in Week 10. He grabbed 6 receptions, totaling 53 yards and 2 touchdowns. This is the third time this season where Andrews has eclipsed a 20 point fantasy performance, and I see a fourth one coming. It looks like Andrews is finally healthy and Vegas has this game currently projected at 49 points. I wouldn’t be shocked if it reached 50 by game time and I still like the over. Like I said above, I like the Ravens offense in this matchup versus the Texans and I think pairing Jackson with Andrews is the right way to stack the Ravens.
GREG OLSEN- $3900 DRAFTKINGS, $5100 FANDUEL
Greg Olsen just keeps on ticking. The guy is a warrior and at 34 years old he is still putting up numbers at a high level. DraftKings and FanDuel haven’t raised his price in relation to his performance if you ask me and I will lock up some Olsen shares for value on both sites. He is averaging 10 fantasy points per game at a position where if you miss you might end up with 0-2 points and that could be the difference in you cashing your lineups. Pair that with the fact he draws a matchup against the Falcons who rank 24th against opposing tight ends and you have safe tight end play for Week 11.
DEFENSES
VIKINGS- $3400 DRAFTKINGS, $4700 FANDUEL
The Vikings are coming off a big win versus the Cowboys and should have an easy victory lined up against the Broncos at home. The Vikings defense is averaging 7 fantasy points per game and has scored double digits on three occasions this year. I think their defense will stifle the Broncos which lack any true offensive weapons. Denver is only projected to score 15 points in this one, so there should be a solid floor when taking the Vikings in both cash games and tournaments.
JETS- $3100 DRAFTKINGS, $4500 FANDUEL
Sometimes you need to take a shot and hope for the best. This is a calculated shot with the Jets coming off a win and playing against a rookie quarterback. Haskins is struggling and surrounded by a bad overall offense. The Jets come at a slight discount and will be low owned as well. If they find a way to score a defensive touchdown for the second week in a row this defense can set you apart in your tournaments.
Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than seven years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.
While football is a team sport, several Ravens players have been playing at a high level. It might earn these six their first Pro Bowl nods.
The Baltimore Ravens are having a great season. They sit at 7-2 and have defeated some of the best teams in the NFL to get there. With a quarterback that is hot on the MVP trail, an offense that is seemingly too tough to defend and a defense that is improving rapidly every week, Baltimore looks like they’ll be going far this season.
For as much as football is a team sport, there are a bunch of individual Ravens players having stellar years that deserve to be recognized. With such a young roster, plenty of them have yet to get the notoriety on a national stage, but we’re here to fix that.
These six players very well could have earned their first Pro Bowl nominations with their play this season. Of course, you can always help by voting for your favorite Ravens players.
QB Lamar Jackson
Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images
We start off with the guy in the mix for the NFL’s MVP award. If Jackson doesn’t get a Pro Bowl nod this season, the league might just have to do away with the whole game.
Forget about the stats — though there are plenty to use as reasoning for Jackson to be in the Pro Bowl. Jackson has been electric on the field this season, both with his legs and arm. He’s made Pro Bowl players tackle thin air and he’s torched some solid secondaries. The NFL’s all-star game is supposed to highlight the best and most exciting players, and Jackson is the epitome.
