Pro Football Focus: Giants’ Leonard Williams not worth the money

Pro Football Focus looked at the financials surrounding New York Giants DL Leonard Williams and determined he’s not worth $15M annually.

New York Giants defensive lineman Leonard Williams is poised to become an unrestricted free agent in March, and while general manager Dave Gettleman surrendered quite a bit of draft capital to obtain him, Williams isn’t keen on giving any sort of discount.

Rather, Williams will reportedly command upwards of $15 million annually when negotiating his next contract, which would be a substantial chunk of change to invest in a rotational defensive lineman that ultimately pairs with three others.

Still, Williams has proven himself to be a legitimate talent against the run and an underrated pass rusher based on the analytics (apparently we now ignore certain analytics when they’re counter-productive to an argument). But still, $15 million per season?

Even to the non-cap expert that seems steep and Pro Football Focus agrees. Despite routinely praising Williams as a talented defender, PFF argues that at the current reported cost, the defensive lineman simply isn’t worth it — especially for the Giants.

NO DEAL: DI LEONARD WILLIAMS (5 YRS – $15M AVG/YR)

$43m guaranteed, $75m total

Similar to the argument for Clowney, Williams is a defensive lineman who has always added more as a run-stuffer than he has as a pass-rusher. Though he was a better pass-rusher in 2019 than his one sack would indicate, Williams still only recorded a pass-rushing grade of 66.2, and he has recorded a pass-rushing grade of over 70.0 only once in his career (2018, 71.4). If the primary thing that you’re bringing to the table defensively is your ability to stop the run — something that Williams does do at a high level — then you’re not going to be worth a $75 million contract with $43 million guaranteed. Add in the fact that the 2019 season saw him produce the lowest grade of his career at 70.6 overall, and I would be hesitant, as a general manager, to pay him something in this vicinity.

What more needs to be said? Williams is an elite run-stuffer and average, albeit underrated pass rusher. Still, that’s not enough to warrant $15 million annually.

The Giants can not gamble further on Williams, hoping he suddenly rounds into shape. The investment is already too steep and you’ve got to pay based on what you’ve seen, not what you hope will come in the future.

[lawrence-related id=640384,640372,640357]

Is Leonard Williams a must-sign for Giants?

After dropping the trade chips on him, is defensive lineman Leonard Williams a must-sign for the New York Giants this offseason?

The fate of defensive lineman Leonard Williams will be a major offseason storyline for the New York Giants. After all, the team dropped a substantial amount of draft capital to obtain him last season and he’s now reportedly seeking $15 million annually.

But does that make Leonard a must-sign for the Giants?

Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report recently pondered that very question and came to the conclusion that, yes, Williams is now a must-sign for general manager Dave Gettleman.

The New York Giants surrendered a 2020 third-round pick and a 2021 fifth-round pick to the New York Jets in exchange for defensive lineman Leonard Williams. While that’s now a sunk cost, the Giants would look silly if they let Williams walk just eight games after making that trade.

Besides, while many of the Giants’ in-house free agents are disposable because of their age (Mike Remmers, Michael Thomas) or because a rebuilding team with oodles of cap space can do better (Markus Golden, Cody Latimer), Williams has tremendous growth potential at the age of 25.

The 2015 No. 6 overall pick already has a Pro Bowl on his resume, and he performed well down the stretch in a fresh environment. In eight games with the G-Men, he recorded 11 quarterback hits, 26 tackles and a forced fumble.

The Giants have to double down on their investment and see if Williams can become a star alongside Dalvin Tomlinson, Dexter Lawrence and B.J. Hill.

Any way you look at it, Williams feels like overkill. As talented as he is, is he really worth $15 million per season as part of a four-man rotation?

Had the Giants not acquired him from the New York Jets last season, he likely wouldn’t be considered a top free agent target. However, because Gettleman did what he did, he’s backed the Giants into a corner where they essentially have to pay Williams whatever he wants.

[lawrence-related id=640347,640338,640330]

Report: Leonard Williams could seek $15 million annually from Giants

Defensive lineman Leonard Williams could seek as much as $15 million annually from the New York Giants.

When the New York Giants curiously traded for defensive lineman Leonard Williams in-season, many criticized general manager Dave Gettleman for unnecessarily parting with draft capital on what could turn out to be nothing more than a temporary rental.

“The thought process was, I really believe that as much as the style of play evolves, there are basic truths — you have to run the ball, you have to stop the run, you have to rush the passer,” Gettleman told reporters in January. “If you are seriously deficient in any one of those three areas, it makes it tough. It’s going to be tough sledding. By bringing in Leonard, we looked at it, we obviously evaluated the film, by bringing him in, we felt he could be a disruptive force inside. And, he has been. He has been.”

Williams did excel against the run and even pass rushed much more effectively than many believe, but the Giants now find themselves in a situation where they’re going to be forced into dropping big money or losing their trade chips.

Ralph Vacchiano of SNY reports that Williams views himself in the elite category and could be seeking upwards of $15 million annually from the Giants.

In fact, the big splash might even come before free agency begins. The Giants are intent on re-signing defensive lineman Leonard Williams, which is the only way to justify the third- and fifth-round picks they sent to the Jets for him (that fifth-rounder becomes a fourth-rounder if the Giants re-sign him before March 18). And that could be costly since Williams has said he wants a “big contract” because he thinks he’s a “top-tier interior defensive lineman.”

That would put the 25-year-old Williams, at least in his mind, in the $15 million per year range.

At $15 million, Williams would not only eat up a substantial chunk of the Giants’ available cap space, but he’d still find himself in a rotation alongside Dexter Williams, Dalvin Tomlinson and B.J. Hill, all of whom have played well and deserve defensive reps.

It has become increasingly difficult to defend Gettleman’s decision to acquire Williams, and now that he’s seeking upwards of $15 million annually, it’s nearly impossible.

[lawrence-related id=640347,640338,640330]

How did former Jets fare in 2019 after leaving New York?

Here’s how some notable players performed a year after playing for the Jets in 2018.

The Jets had a lot of roster turnover between 2018 and 2019 — thanks in part to a lot of organizational turnover — which left a handful of players in new locations this past season.

There were an abundance of notable players from New York’s 2018 roster that were on different teams in 2019. That list includes Darron Lee, Mike Pennel, Morris Claiborne, Buster Skrine, Jason Myers, Leonard Williams, Andre Roberts, Josh McCown, Isaiah Crowell and Jermaine Kearse.

Let’s take a look at how those 10 players performed after leaving the Jets.

Super Bowl Champs

Three former Jets were were part of the Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs: Darron Lee, Mike Pennel and Morris Claiborne.

Lee found himself in a backup role this season with the Chiefs after being a three-year starter for the Jets. After having three straight seasons of 40+ tackles, Lee only recorded 22 tackles in his first season in Kansas City.

Despite not playing a full season, Pennel had one of the better years of his career. In the Super Bowl, he was one of the players who caused Jimmy Garoppolo to throw his first interception. Pennel had 13 total tackles and one sack during the regular season.

Like Lee, Claiborne was also a backup player. He only played in eight games and had nine tackles to go along with no pass defenses. It was the first time in his eight-career that he didn’t record a breakup.

Pages: 1234567

After Jets declined his option, Mike Pennel boosted Chiefs’ run defense

After two years with the Jets, Mike Pennel has become one of the best run-stoppers on the Kansas City Chiefs defense

After two seasons with the Jets, Chiefs DT Mike Pennel finds himself on the cusp of a championship in his sixth year in the league.

The Jets claimed Pennel off waivers in 2017 to play alongside Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson and Steve McLendon. He didn’t play often, recording 35 tackles on 27 percent of snaps in 16 games, but he did enough to earn a three-year contract that offseason. But after a down 2018 season (27 tackles in 7starts/16 games), the Jets declined the option on his contract and sent him to free agency on Feb. 19, 2019.

The Chiefs picked up Pennel midway through the 2019 season after his two years with the Jets and a five-month stint with the Patriots. Though he’s only played in 13.94 percent of the Chiefs’ defensive snaps in 2019, Pennel is a crucial contributor to the Kansas City run defense. Before Pennel joined the team, the Chiefs allowed 148.6 rushing yards per game between Weeks 1-7. But after he signed in October, the Chiefs gave up only 126.1 rushing yards per game. Even better, Kansas City didn’t allow more than 100 team rushing yards during their two playoff games and held Titans running back Derrick Henry to only 69 yards on 19 careers – his lowest total since Week 9.

Pennel’s massive frame – he stands at 6-foot-4, 330 pounds – gave him incredible leverage in the run-stopping game this season and it’s helped him become a great rotational lineman for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He hasn’t put up wild numbers in Kansas City with just 24 total tackles, one sack and two quarterback hits, but he’s also never played more than 41 percent of snaps in a game.

Pennel will always be a quality role player, but he likely wouldn’t have seen much action on the Jets this past season after they drafted nose tackle Quinnen Williams third overall. Foley Fatukasi has also been a revelation for the Jets on the defensive line and came at a cheaper price than Pennel.

The Jets didn’t see a use for Pennel after a dip in production, but it appears the Chiefs have found a way to maximize the time he’s on the field. They’ll need all the help they can get against a San Francisco 49er running game that finished second in rushing yards per game in the regular season and tallied 235.5 rushing yards per game and three total rushing touchdowns in their two playoff games.

When the 49ers look to run the football in the Super Bowl, look for ex-Jet Pennel to be on the field.

Trading OLB Matthew Judon might be in Ravens’ best interest

The Baltimore Ravens have a tough decision to make with Matthew Judon that could involve trading him instead of re-signing him

Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Matthew Judon offers an interesting dilemma this offseason. He seems destined to hit the free-agent market where Baltimore simply won’t be able to keep up with other franchises that have a wealth of cap space to burn. If the Ravens don’t feel they’ll be able to lock up Judon to a long-term deal, trading him might be their best scenario here.

Judon is going to be one of the top options in free agency and will likely command serious money if allowed to hit the open market. Of course, the Ravens have the franchise tag available to keep Judon in town if they absolutely want, but it also has some serious ramifications on Baltimore’s salary cap while only locking him up for the 2020 season. It also leaves the option open for Judon to not sign his tender and hold out, or worse; sign the deal and still walk next offseason.

Though Baltimore has more cap space expected than in previous years, they still rank the bottom third of the league, according to Over The Cap. As of right now, 15 teams are expected to have more than $50 million available to spend this offseason, with two teams having more than $90 million in cap space. With just shy of $29 million expected to be available, according to OTC, the Ravens cannot keep up with the checkbooks of other teams if Judon gets serious interest in free agency.

Baltimore is staring down a potential repeat of last season where they lost key starters C.J. Mosley, Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs for only compensatory picks in return. If the Ravens are planning on being buyers at all in free agency, they could just as easily wipe out the compensatory pick they’d acquire for Judon’s departure, which would be adding insult to injury here.

General manager Eric DeCosta might have learned from last offseason and could decide to go on the offensive here instead. As a top pending free-agent pass rusher, Judon is sure to draw interest from plenty of teams. But not every team will be interested in getting into a bidding war for his services or taking the chance they might not get him. Those teams might be far more eager to guarantee they can land Judon by trading with Baltimore and signing him to a long-term deal themselves.

From just last offseason until now, the NFL has had a bevy of trades to prove that star players can carry a lot of trade value.

The New York Jets traded defensive end Leonard Williams for a third-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft and a fifth/fourth-round pick in 2021. The Jacksonville Jaguars sent cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams in return for two first-round picks and a fourth-rounder. The Kansas City Chiefs paid a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft for San Francisco 49ers defensive end Dee Ford. The Chiefs also sent defensive end Frank Clark and a third-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for first-, second- and third-round picks.

By that history, it seems pretty likely Baltimore would net more than a third-round pick in exchange for Judon. If the Ravens can get a few teams interested, a first-round pick or more doesn’t seem to be out of the realm of possibility.

To play their options out and incentivize other teams to make a move, Baltimore could apply the franchise tag to Judon now. If Judon wants to have more control over where he goes, he could decide to not sign the tag unless he likes the destination. But that would also mean the Ravens could rescind the tag at any time before the deadline in May and still let Judon hit free agency like normal. It’s a win-win for Baltimore here given that re-signing Judon seems pretty unlikely at this point.

The Ravens still need help at pass rusher and one guy isn’t going to fix the problem, including just re-signing Judon. Baltimore would be better off picking up multiple second-tier players while using the draft to hopefully acquire an immediate game-changing talent. Trading Judon would mean the Ravens could spend their cap space on those types of free agents while giving them an extra early-round pick to either move up for a star prospect or take multiple shots at the position.

Of course, all this is dependent on other teams being interested in trading for Judon. But on the flip side, if Judon doesn’t draw much interest on the trade market, it might indicate his value as a free agent isn’t nearly as high as expected either and might push him to sign a long-term deal with Baltimore for cheaper.

There seems to be no downside to dangling Judon out as a trade option and a lot of serious upsides to trading him away.

[vertical-gallery id=41592]

2 Giants listed among PFF’s top 100 free agents

Only two New York Giants made Pro Football Focus’ list of the top 100 available free agents in 2020.

The New York Giants will be going into free agency with some money to spend this offseason, which is good news considering they’ve had a lack of talent on their roster over the last few years and it has shown in their record during that time.

On Monday, Pro Football Focus released their top 100 available free agents of 2020 and, to little surprise, there were just two Giants who made the list. What may surprise you however, is which two made the cut.

Quarterback Eli Manning came in at 51 overall, but recent reports are that Manning may elect to retire.

The other Giant who made the list is defensive lineman Leonard Williams (No. 26), who the team traded for mid-season and have already said they fully intend on signing him long-team.

26. DI LEONARD WILLIAMS

Some of the gloss on Leonard Williams’ career has faded, as he never became the dominant force along the defensive line that he was once pegged as. In his second year, he notched 55 total pressures and earned an overall PFF grade of 81.4, but that grade has slipped to barely above 70.0 this past season. The draw of Williams is that he has shown high-level play in the past, and will enter the 2020 season just 26 years old, but he needs to prove he can be a significant factor rushing the passer again or his value has a very defined cap to it.

A number of fans have been up in arms over the mid-season trade given that Williams is a pending free agent. And although he excelled, many don’t want the Giants to invest in him long-term because he doesn’t bring a high volume of sacks.

Coincidentally, Markus Golden, who was the team’s sack leader and the first Giants linebacker to have double-digit sacks since Lawrence Taylor, did not make PFF’s list. Golden was on a one-year prove it deal with Big Blue and will surely command top dollar on the open market this offseason.

Former Giants cornerback Eli Apple made the list at No. 63. The former first-round pick was traded to the New Orleans Saints last season.

[lawrence-related id=638925,638913,638825]

Bill Barnwell rips Giants for Odell Beckham, Leonard Williams trades

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently ripped the New York Giants and GM Dave Gettleman for the Odell Beckham Jr. and Leonard Williams trades.

The New York Giants’ decision to trade a third- and a possible fourth-round pick to the New York Jets last October in exchange for defensive lineman Leonard Williams was met with mixed reactions from both camps.

Jet fans reacted with glee as they not only rid themselves of an underachieving player but got some much-needed draft capital in return.

Giant fans were puzzled why general manager Dave Gettleman would make such a trade for Williams, an impending free agent who they could simply wait until after the season to sign and in the process keep their picks.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently ranked the 30 most impactful trades of the 2019 season. The Williams trade made the cut at No. 29. By contrast, the most impactful deal of the season was the Tennessee Titans acquisition of quarterback Ryan Tannehill from the Miami Dolphins for a sixth round pick and cash.

From Barnwell:

Giants trade: 2020 third-round pick, 2021 conditional pick
Jets trade: DE Leonard Williams

I wrote about how this trade didn’t make sense at the time, with the 2-6 Giants dealing a third-round pick and a conditional fourth- or fifth-round pick for the privilege of paying Williams $4 million before free agency. Williams, who has perennially posted plenty of knockdowns without ever converting those figures to sacks, posted 11 knockdowns and just a half-sack in his time with the Giants.

What mattered here was the revelation of just how far the Giants are from understanding what is broken with their franchise. Making this trade was foolish. General manager Dave Gettleman justifying the trade was downright depressing. Just weeks before his infamous “computer guys” speech, Gettleman argued that the Giants would get a third-round compensatory pick if they moved on from Williams after the season, which would require Williams to get a contract north of $15 million per season (he won’t) and the Giants to sit out free agency (they won’t). Williams is a fine defensive lineman, but the Giants continue to have a warped view of reality and their current status within the NFL.

Impact grade: D

The trade is a D in terms of impact because it was made between two teams that have a long way to go to get back into contention. It is a D for the Giants simply because it was imprudent from a economical and asset allocation sense. The Jets made out like bandits because they got definitive capital for Williams up front. They would likely have gotten a compensatory pick in return for losing Williams in free agency. Now they know that third-round pick is No. 68 overall and when that pick is on the board Giant fans will have no choice but to look away and cringe.

Additionally, Barnwell also ripped the Giants for trading Beckham.

The Giants lost a star in OBJ, and while you could make the argument that adding a handful of would-be starters for their franchise wide receiver would make some sense, general manager Dave Gettleman continued to disappoint. He signed Golden Tate, a bizarre move for a rebuilding team that already had a slot receiver in Sterling Shepard and a “move” tight end in Evan Engram. Peppers became the box safety the Giants lost when they let Landon Collins leave in free agency. No. 17 pick Dexter Lawrence looked to be a promising big body and run-thumper, but he is serving as the replacement for Damon Harrison, who also was jettisoned by Gettleman.

It’s important to note that Harrison is mulling retirement due to his body breaking down. We must also assume this was written before OBJ’s shenanigans at the National Championship Game between LSU and Clemson.

[lawrence-related id=638634,638608,638602]

For the analytics lovers: Giants’ Leonard Williams a pass rushing gem

For all the lovers of analytics who have hated on New York Giants DL Leonard Williams, you now face an internal dilemma.

When New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman traded for New York Jets defensive lineman Leonard Williams — an impending free agent — last October, the move was highly criticized.

This was not a trade a last place team makes. It’s the type of trade a contender makes to help put them over the top.

Yet, Gettleman had no qualms in forking over a third-, and what likely will be a fourth-round pick for the former No. 6 overall pick out of USC.

Now the Giants are pretty much tethered to the idea of retaining Williams or run the risk of having wasted valuable draft capital on player who walked away in free agency.

The Giants are expected to re-sign Williams this March and given the fact this sack numbers aren’t stellar (0.5 sacks in 15 games last season), the 25-year-old did make a significant difference in the Giants’ defensive front.

From Pro Football Focus:

No player had a bigger deference between his pressure rate rank and sack rate rank than Williams, who split the year between the Giants and the New York Jets prior to his trade. Among 87 interior defenders with 200 or more pass-rushing snaps, Williams ranked 13th in pressure rate at 11.3% but his one sack in 424 pass-rushing snaps put him near the bottom of the list in sack rate. On the other hand, Williams led the position with 19 quarterback hits. A few fractions of a second faster on several of those plays and that sack total looks a whole lot more respectable.

Considering the draft capital that the Giants gave up acquiring Williams, it seems likely that they’ll retain him moving forward. He’s always been a better run defender than a pass-rusher, but he’s certainly better in the passing game than the one sack he was able to produce in 2019. Now the Giants just need to figure out how to balance all the young talent they have at interior defensive line if they re-sign Williams.

It doesn’t matter the cost. It’s already been too high. The Giants might have to overpay a bit to keep Williams in the fold, but then again, there may not be too many teams champing at the bit to pay him his asking price. The Giants could actually end up getting Big Cat at a bargain rate.

[lawrence-related id=638448,638400,638420]

Eagles LT Jason Peters listed among the 50 best available 2020 NFL free agents

Jason Peters is the No. 41 best available free agent according to Pro Football Focus

Jason Peters wants to continue his NFL career and if you evaluate him based on analytics and a proper grading system, he’ll likely have a list of suitors when free agency begins.

Pro Football Focus recently put out their initial list of the top-50 NFL free agents for the 2020 offseason, and the Eagles left tackle landed on the list at No. 41.

41. LT JASON PETERS
Somehow Jason Peters is still plying his trade at an extremely high level despite approaching 38 years of age. That age obviously makes Peters a short-term option for prospective teams, and Peters also comes with a significant injury history and the prospect that he might not last 16 games in any given season. But he is still an impressive figure when he is on the field, and he ended the 2019 season with an overall PFF grade of 82.8 after allowing 25 total pressures on the season. Peters won’t be receiving many multi-year offers, but he could provide a very useful short-term fix for a team struggling to find answers on the offensive line.

Peter is still talented enough to play in the NFL on a year to year basis, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Eagles allow the future Hall of Famer to walk in free agency.

Howie Roseman made it clear during his end of the season press conference, that the Eagles were interested in getting younger. With 2019 first-round pick Andre Dillard waiting in the wings, the Eagles will have to decide on bring Peters back for another year, moving Peters to a different position or allowing him to play for another franchise.