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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
This week we make our picks on a group of underachievers – stars who haven’t blown up as expected this year along with guys who have been career underachievers for the most part.
The Week 4 picks include a pair of draft-inflated quarterbacks fighting for their NFL lives as starters, two of the top three running backs in most fantasy drafts, and a sneaky wide receiver pick who has consistently blown up against his Week 4 opponent.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Five player prop bets that will take you to the pay window.
In Week 1 we had a good look at all 32 teams and what their squads look like – both their strengths and their weaknesses. In some instances, what we saw in Week 1 wasn’t representative of what we can expect over the course of the full season – teams like the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
For most teams, what we saw is what we can likely expect – good and bad – going forward, so with more information to go on, we can base decisions on a track record from this season and, in the case of divisional games with a lot of history, a head-to-head track record.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Analyzing Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor’ Week 1 prop bets vs. the Houston Texans, and releasing our expert picks and predictions.
The main slate of NFL Week 1 kicks off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. One of those matchups has the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Houston Texans in an NFC South battle at NRG Stadium (on CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around Colts RB Jonathan Taylor’s prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Colts mowed over Houston last December when they played in Texas. Taylor went for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 carries in a 31-0 win in Week 13.
With Taylor arguably the hottest name in football – he led the NFL in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing TDs (18) last season – let’s take a look at some of his Week 1 props we can take advantage of.
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Check out: Colts at Texans odds, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:47 p.m. ET.
How can you not love Taylor to get 3 digits worth of rushing yards in Week 1? It is a tad juiced but rightfully so.
The third-year back hit this mark in 7 of his last 9 games to round out last season. He topped 100 in 10 of 17 as well. He hit it in every game in which he had at least 20 carries (6 games total he hit this mark). Every game he received 20 carries was Week 10 or later, taking over the backfield as a true 3-down back.
The Texans had the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and they took the first cornerback off the board, LSU standout Derek Stingley Jr. He doesn’t add much to Houston’s rush defense, which allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards per game (142.24). Plus, the Texans lost starting OLB Jake Martin, who signed a free-agent deal with the Jets in the offseason.
The Texans defense may somehow regress, and Houston could be looking at another consistently difficult season.
Taylor should be able to absolutely abuse Houston in his 1st game of the season, especially coming in at full strength. Considering he had 32 carries in the 31-0 blowout last season, I wouldn’t take much concern about a potential dominant effort from Indianapolis.
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As Taylor’s carries went up, his targets went down. In 4 of the 6 games in which he had at least 20 carries, Taylor had under 3 receptions, which makes hitting this total slim.
Taylor went over this total in 6 games last season. I would prefer the Under 15.5 here given the impact the Colts’ pass-catching RB Nyheim Hines has as well.
The addition of QB Matt Ryan may only help this mindset as he’s a more capable quarterback and may dump it down less than QB Carson Wentz did a season ago.
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Ultimately, this is going to be a pass. Hines is the Colts’ featured pass-catching back, and I doubt Taylor gets that type of usage from Ryan in this one.
Taylor did have 9 games with 3 or more receptions, but again, that was prior to his explosion as the featured running back in the offense.
As his usage on the ground went up, his targets went down, and given how the Colts should use the star back, I expect him to get the ball in his hands early and often.
Taylor didn’t have a touchdown in 5 games last season, and you can’t bet that he won’t get in the end zone.
With this sky-high valuation on something that missed in almost a third of the games, I’ll ultimately PASS. It should be a safe bet though, given how dominant the Colts should be.
Taylor did score multiple touchdowns in both games against Houston a season ago. It’s safe but doesn’t have much value. I wouldn’t suggest betting this.
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More NFL Week 1 coverage
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