Does the Seahawks offense has room for JSN to produce for fantasy football in 2023.
Despite having a solid wide receiver tandem in the form of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seattle Seahawks decided to use the No. 20 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft on Ohio State product Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Arguably the top receiving prospect in this rookie class, Smith-Njigba will be competing for targets with a strong duo ahead of him on the depth chart. His arrival raises the question: Is there enough room in the Seahawks offense for the rookie to be fantasy relevant?
First, we must look at the depth chart. Metcalf is still right in his prime at 25 years old, while Lockett turns 31 years old in September. They’ve become one of the most consistent tandems in the league since 2019, recording at least 900 yards during that span — Lockett has surpassed 1,000 in each of those seasons.
What’s more, they have a stranglehold on the target share within the offense. In 2022, they posted a combined target share of 48.2% with Metcalf at 25.5% and Lockett at 22.7%. The next closest player was tight end Noah Fant (11.4%).
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So, while Metcalf and Lockett are dominating the targets, an argument can be made that a first-round talent like Smith-Njigba easily slides into third in the pecking order. Having Geno Smith at quarterback offers stability, but his lack of high-end weekly fantasy finishes may limit the rookie’s ceiling.
Next, we need to look at Smith-Njigba himself. He’s a crafty route runner with reliable hands and exceptional change-of-direction skills. He may not be a true burner, but he understands the nuances of route running and still provides enough juice after the catch.
It’s likely Smith-Njigba’s role will begin as a slot receiver, provided he fends off competition from Dee Eskridge. That’s where he played the majority of his snaps at Ohio State. However, it’s not outlandish to believe his polish as a route runner can lead to a role as a flanker type in the future. But with Metcalf and Lockett fully entrenched ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s difficult to imagine all three wideouts being on the field together all the time.
Draft capital is important to note here as well. Since 2011, there have been 42 wide receivers drafted in the first round who appeared in at least 10 games during their rookie seasons. Of those 42, there were 15 rookies who averaged at least 12.5 PPR points per game, which is right around the WR2 (top-24) mark for fantasy purposes. Only seven of those 42 have averaged more than 15.0 PPR points per game in Year 1.
Fantasy football outlook
Smith-Njigba is an electric talent who does possess some upside in Year 1. He’s NFL-ready as a slot receiver, but the tandem of Metcalf and Lockett will likely limit his playing time and production early on. However, if one of them suffers an injury, it opens the door for a much higher ceiling.
Considering his draft capital, talent and the Seahawks depth chart, Smith-Njigba should have a role right away. It may be slow to start the season, but the rookie can be viewed as a WR3 option in fantasy with some upside if an injury befalls Metcalf or Lockett.
