NFL Best Bets: Three underdog locks for Week 13

Our weekly NFL underdog betting staple continues into Week 13 where Ken Pomponio features three teams likely to upset their underdog odds

We’re past Thanksgiving, so the real NFL season is underway.

At least that’s how the saying goes.

In this space, we’re bringing a 21-15 overall record into the closing stretch after going 2-1 last week. I was on pair of underdogs who covered in straight-up losses (Colts +3.5 against the Texans and Cowboys +6.5 vs. the Patriots) and another (Packers +3.5 at the 49ers) that most definitely did not.

Now, with the trio of Turkey Day games already in the Week 13 books, we’ll have to come up with three underdogs from the rest the card, utilizing, as usual, Wednesday’s posted point spreads from BetMGM.com. Here goes …

Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

(Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports)

These two AFC South foes met back in Week 2, and the visiting Colts came away with a 19-17 road victory for their 19th win in the last 23 meetings with the Titans since the start of the 2008 season.

But it’s been the Titans who have since undergone the greatest transformation, winning four of five games since Ryan Tannehill replaced the scuffling Marcus Mariota as the starting quarterback in Week 7. Tannehill has been much more than just a fill-in, throwing for 10 TDs and rushing for three more while throwing only four interceptions.

Indy, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction, having dropped three of four since Week 9 with QB Jacoby Brissett missing two of those losses with a knee injury.

Brissett has been back for the last two games, but two of his top weapons will missing Sunday as tight end Eric Ebron has been placed on injured reserve list and No. 1 wideout T.Y. Hilton is sidelined after suffering a setback with his nagging calf injury in practice this week.

That’s more than enough to tilt the balance in favor of the red-hot Tannehill and the Titans if you weren’t leaning in that direction already.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

(Photo Credit: Jason Getz – USA TODAY Sports)

This matchup of 4-7 Florida foes also is a meeting of two teams headed in opposite directions of late as the Bucs have won two of their last three while the Jags have dropped three straight, losing by at least 20 each time.

Tampa quietly owns the league’s No. 3 scoring offense at 28.4 points per game, and only the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, with 3,788 in 12 games, has thrown for yards than the Bucs’ Jameis Winston (3,391 in 11). Winston also ranks fourth with 22 TD passes but, of course, the problem is interceptions as Winston has tossed 20 — six more than any other QB in the league.

Meanwhile, QB Nick Foles is back at the helm in J’ville, but he’s guided the Jags to only 33 points in his last two starts.

Foles has a capable sidekick in running back Leonard Fournette, but (again) the Bucs quietly own the league’s No. 2 defense against the run. Jacksonville doesn’t have cornerback Jalen Ramsey anymore to help deal with Tampa’s standout WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who have both already eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards on the season and have combined for 16 scoring receptions.

Look for the Bucs to prevail in a shootout.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

(Photo Credit: David Berding – USA TODAY Sports)

It’s another intriguing Monday night matchup as the NFC’s two current wild-card front-runners put their superb records on the line.

Both teams feature QBs (Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins) playing at elite levels, and well-rounded, top-10 offenses going against shakier-than-most-expect defenses, particularly against the pass, so there should be some back-and-forth action on the scoreboard.

Despite their 9-2 record, though, the Seahawks are stunningly 0-5 ATS against the midweek lines at home this season while the 8-3 Vikings have covered and won in three of their last four road contests.

Take the Purple and the points.

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WR Scotty Miller, two others ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Jaguars

The Buccaneers have ruled three players out for Sunday’s Week 13 matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Out for Sunday’s game against the Jags are Scotty Miller, Anthony Nelson and M.J. Stewart, per Arians

— Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV) November 29, 2019

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be without three players on Sunday when they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Scotty Miller, OLB Anthony Nelson and CB M.J. Stewart.

Nelson and Stewart were the only two Buccaneers ruled out for last week’s game against the Atlanta Falcons, a game Tampa Bay won in dominating fashion, 35-22. Head coach Bruce Arians said it was the best complete game this squad has played all year.

Both the Bucs and Jags currently sit at 4-7, but the Buccaneers have momentum on their side after that big win over their division rival last week. Jacksonville, meanwhile, was run into the ground by the Tennessee Titans in Week 12, and have still not won a game since quarterback Nick Foles reclaimed the starting job from Gardner Minshew (0-2).

A win for the Bucs would give them their first back-to-back wins of the season and likely quell calls for Jameis Winston’s job, at least for another week.

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3 bold predictions for Bucs vs. Jags

DJ Chark could be up for another game with two touchdowns and 120-plus yards as the Bucs are struggling mightily against the pass.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be looking to start the month of December on the right track this Sunday against their in-state rivals in the Tampa Bay Bucs. Both teams will come into the game below .500, but most fans would agree they have the talent to make this game competitive and interesting.

Here are three bold predictions for Sunday’s game, which will take place at TIAA Bank Field:

Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

WR DJ Chark Jr. will have his second 150-plus yard day with two touchdowns

The Jags will be up against the No. 31 ranked passing defense (289.9 YPG average) Sunday, which sets DJ Chark Jr. and the passing game up to eat. He’s been Nick Foles’ favorite receiver since his return from collarbone surgery and that likely won’t change this year.

Despite the success of Foles’ and Chark’s connection, the young receiver had his second-lowest receiving yards total of the year last week against the Tennessee Titans (38). Typically when he doesn’t get going and/or Leonard Fournette struggles, the Jags normally don’t have a good day on offense. That said, they need to get to Chark early and often.

There will be times where he and the Jags’ other receivers are lining up against rookie cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is learning the game. He currently has a grade of 58.5 on Pro Football Focus while Chark is one of the highest-graded Jags on the roster with a 80.7. Those numbers alone should warrant a lot of targets for Chark.

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3 Jaguars to watch on defense vs. Bucs

The Jags defense will need to have a solid day Sunday against the Bucs passing attack, which could lead to Josh Allen getting more snaps.

The Jacksonville Jaguars went winless in November and will look to get away from that in December. First up on their schedule for the upcoming month are their in-state rivals in the Tampa Bay Bucs, who are coming off a solid win against the Atlanta Falcons.

Here are three Jaguars to watch on the defensive side of the ball, as the Jags try to cool down a hot Bucs offense:

Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

CB Tre Herndon

The Jags’ passing defense will be very important in Sunday’s game. Bruce Arians has his group clicking through the air as they rank fourth in passing yards (288.1 YPG), fourth in total yards (386.4 YPG) and third in points scored (28.4 PPG).

A big part of their success is due to their dynamic duo at the receiver position in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who have nine and seven touchdowns on the season, respectively. Both receivers will also roll into Sunday’s game with over 1,000 yards receiving and will be matched up against A.J. Bouye and Tre Herndon.

With Arians and former Jags quarterback turned coordinator Byron Leftwich making the game-plan, the Cards will test Herndon more than Bouye, and he must answer the call as he did against the New York Jets when he had two picks. However, if he doesn’t it could be a long day for the Jags on defense.

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Jags Wire panel share thankful thoughts about Jags

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been pretty terrible this season, however, there are still aspects on the team to be thankful for. Here are some things we are thankful about at Jags Wire in which surround the teams: James Johnson ( @Sportsgrind_Don): …

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been pretty terrible this season, however, there are still aspects on the team to be thankful for.

Here are some things we are thankful about at Jags Wire in which surround the teams:

James Johnson (@Sportsgrind_Don):

I’m thankful for the opportunities that I’ve been given for covering the Jags. I’ve interviewed first-round selections, been to the NFL Draft, covered the team during their only good season in recent history (2017), and while challenging, it’s been a lot of fun.

I’m also thankful for the people I’ve met because of my passion in covering the Jags, including Phil, Jacob, Will, Robert, Daniel, Nick and many more. Hopefully, better days will come to this team to make this experience that much more better.

Phil Smith (@PhiltheFilipino):

I’m thankful that we have a hometown team at all. The story of Jacksonville getting an NFL franchise is improbable. Even though they frustrate me to the end of the earth and back, at least we’re not St. Louis.

Jacob DeLawrence (@_Jdela):

I’m thankful that the Jaguars have managed to self implode this year and hopefully force owner Shad Khan to make sweeping changes. I’m also thankful for the Jags being the Jags and allowing me to join James and Phil to discuss our woes frequently on “The Jags Den Podcast.”

Daniel Griffis (@NFLGriffis):

I’m probably most thankful for the numerous opportunities to go to the games with my family. My grandmother bought us tickets in ‘95, so the family would come together more often for unforgettable moments. Simply put, the Jags give us a reason to see each other every other Sunday and that’s what it’s all about.

Will Frost (@willfrost_):

What am I thankful for? It’s been hard to be thankful for much these past few weeks, but I’ll do my best. I’m very thankful for Gardner Minshew II. He may not have set the world on fire when he was starting for the Jags, but for a few games, he made watching Jacksonville football fun again.

Most importantly, I’m thankful for new starts. The year of 2020 is quickly approaching and with it marks a new year, a new decade, and hopefully, a new regime. I don’t know who I want in the front office as we go into next season, but I know change is needed.

Robert Ricks (@rrickswriting):

I’m thankful that the Jags know how to draft talent. The front office from a player relations aspect is a mess, but they know how to actually find good players. I can sleep somewhat better knowing that the Jags are just a stable quarterback away from being a major player in the AFC again. I’m thankful in knowing that ownership TRIES to move the team in a forward direction. They’ve just failed to execute in other spots.

What are you all thankful about at home when it comes to the Jags?

5 takeaways from Tom Coughlin’s first presser since draft

The Jacksonville Jaguars shocked their fanbase by holding a press conference for executive Vice President of football operations Tom Coughlin, who has never spoken to the media in the regular season. He made it clear that the Jags have zero excuses …

Here are some takeaways we came away with in listening to the 13 minute presser:

Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

The point of the presser may have been to rally the fans more than to explain their issues

It initially looked as though the front office heard the fans’ cry to hear from someone in the front office about the Jags’ issues, but in the end, that wasn’t the case. While Coughlin did offer some thoughts on the team’s issues, it wasn’t much. Instead, he spoke to rally the fans, attempting to convince them that there is still a chance for a winning season.

Coughlin never addresses the media during the regular season, prompting reporters to ask if he was told or asked to have his presser. He insisted that wasn’t the case, but when considering the presser didn’t offer much insight into the team’s struggles, fans can’t help but think the opposite.

Only time will tell if the fans show up for the Jags’ next three home games, but it would be hard to blame them if they didn’t. Sure, Coughlin was right when he said the team has a chance for a winning season, but their performance in the last three games makes it difficult to see the Jags having a drastic turnaround.

Simply put, deploying Coughlin to rally support and optimism likely isn’t going to work as it would’ve in 2017. What will work is Khan putting a winning product on the field. and it’s hard to have faith that his current front office and coaching staff can do that.

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Michael Fabiano says to trust Jameis Winston in Week 13

Find out why fantasy football guru Michael Fabiano thinks you should start Jameis Winston against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston has put up some big numbers this year, which has been both good and bad. He’s already thrown for 3,391 yards and is on pace to throw 4,932, which would obliterate his previous season high of 4,090 (2016).

But, unfortunately, Winston has also been turning the ball over at an alarming rate, having already thrown for 20 interceptions in 11 games, becoming the first quarterback since **gulp** Jay Cutler to do that.

As you can imagine, Winston’s erratic play has frustrated fantasy football owners who have the Bucs QB on their roster. It’s hard to predict week-to-week which Winston will show up, but fantasy expert Michael Fabiano says to start him this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Here’s why:

“Winston continues to be difficult to trust, but he does rank fifth in passing yards per game and 10th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. This week he faces the Jaguars, who just allowed nearly 40 fantasy points to Ryan Tannehill a week ago. While there’s always risk of an implosion, I still like Winston in this game.”

Even though it’s a road game for the Bucs, it’s a short trip between Tampa and Jacksonville. Winston threw two early interceptions last week, but managed to get back on track and lead his team to a 35-22 win over the Atlanta Falcons.

We’ve all been waiting for the Bucs to string together back-to-back wins this season. Week 13 could be it.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Sunday’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars sports betting odds and lines, with NFL Week 13 betting picks and best bets

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) make the short trip upstate to battle the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at TIAA Bank Field Sunday. The Week 13 cross-conference tilt will kick off at 1 p.m. ET. We analyze the Buccaneers-Jaguars odds and sports betting lines, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Buccaneers at Jaguars: Week 13 preview, betting trends and notes

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Despite their geographical proximity, the two sides haven’t met since Oct. 2015, with the Buccaneers claiming a 38-31 victory. The Jags have won four of the six all-time, head-to-head matchups.
The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 24.3 points per game in the second half since Week 9. They’ve also allowed a league-high 7.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs since Week 9.
Jacksonville has attempted a two-point conversion on a league-high 30% of PATs this season.
The Jags are 1-16 when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the start of last season. The Buccaneers average 98.3 yards per game on the ground.
Tampa Bay has the NFL’s second-best rush defense with an average of 78.7 yards allowed per game. It’s second-worst in the NFL with 30.5 points per game allowed.
The Jaguars are 7-0 when not committing a turnover since the beginning of 2017. The Bucs rank seventh with 17 takeaways on the year.
Tampa Bay is minus-10 in turnover differential. Jacksonville is neutral.

Buccaneers at Jaguars: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Jaguars 25, Buccaneers 21

Moneyline (?)

The JAGUARS (-106) have lost three straight games, but they’re 2-3 at home this season. The Buccaneers (-115) are slight road favorites with a 3-3 record as the visitors. The Bucs beat the rival Atlanta Falcons 35-22 on the road last week, while the Jags lost 42-20 at the rival Tennessee Titans.

Jacksonville will win the turnover battle, as most teams do against the Bucs, and come away with the home win.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Jags to win outright returns a profit of $9.43.

Against the Spread (?)

The more profitable play is siding with the JAGUARS (-1.5, +105) to cover the meager spread and win by two or more points. Jacksonville is 5-6 against the spread, but fails to cover by an average of four points per game. Tampa Bay is just 3-8 ATS, but has a neutral differential against the projections – helped largely by last week’s blowout win as an underdog.

Over/Under (?)

Take the UNDER 48.5 (-115). The Bucs are a league-best 9-2 against the Over/Under, and they top the projected total by an average of 9.8 points per game. The Jags are 6-5 against the projections and top the number by only 0.8 points per game. This is the highest point projection for the Jags since Week 1 and they haven’t scored more than 20 points as a team in three straight games.

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Esten’s NFL betting record: 29-34

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Bucs-Jaguars Injury Report (Nov. 27): Beau Allen, Jamel Dean limited

Check out the injury report for both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars ahead of their Week 13 showdown.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the league’s toughest schedule the first half of the season, playing five-straight games away from the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium.

During that stretch, the Bucs traveled for games in Los Angeles, New Orleans, London, Tennessee and Seattle, respectively, going just 1-4.

Fortunately, their road game in Week 13 will keep them in-state as they travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, like the Bucs, sit at 4-7.

Here is the injury report for both teams from November 27.

Buccaneers

DL Beau Allen (neck) – Limited Participation

CB Jamel Dean (shoulder) – Limited Participation

T Demar Dotson (not injury related) – Did Not Participate

DL William Gholston (ankle) – Limited Participation

WR Scotty Miller (hamstring) – Limited Participation

CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (knee) – Limited Participation

OLB Anthony Nelson (hamstring) – Did Not Participate

OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee) – Did Not Participate

CB M.J. Stewart (knee) – Did Not Participate

Jaguars

DE Josh Allen (knee) – Limited Participation

DL Calais Campbell (back) – Limited Participation

WR Chris Conley (hamstring) – Limited Participation

TE Seth DeValve (oblique) – Did Not Participate

S Ronnie Harrison (concussion) – Did Not Participate

LB Myles Jack (knee) – Did Not Participate

OL Brandon Linder (illness) – Did Not Participate

DE Dawuane Smoot (knee) – Limited Participation

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3 things to know for Bucs vs. Jaguars

The Tampa Bay Bucs could be a big challenge for the Jags, especially with the dynamic receivers they have in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are struggling now more than ever and are looking for a much needed confidence boost. Hopefully, Week 13 can provide just that as the team returns home to face off against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Here are three things to know for Sunday’s matchup:

Jacksonville leads the series with a 4-2 record

These two Floridian rivals rarely face off against one another. With the way the NFL’s current scheduling system is set up, the teams play on average once every four seasons. The two teams have met on just six occasions, with Jacksonville coming away victorious four of those times.

Jacksonville will enter Sunday’s game as the favorite. Coming off of an ugly three game stretch, the Jaguars are in desperate need of a rebound game. Hopefully, the struggling Bucs can help Jacksonville right the ship.

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