The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) make the short trip upstate to battle the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at TIAA Bank Field Sunday. The Week 13 cross-conference tilt will kick off at 1 p.m. ET. We analyze the Buccaneers-Jaguars odds and sports betting lines, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Buccaneers at Jaguars: Week 13 preview, betting trends and notes
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- Despite their geographical proximity, the two sides haven’t met since Oct. 2015, with the Buccaneers claiming a 38-31 victory. The Jags have won four of the six all-time, head-to-head matchups.
- The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 24.3 points per game in the second half since Week 9. They’ve also allowed a league-high 7.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs since Week 9.
- Jacksonville has attempted a two-point conversion on a league-high 30% of PATs this season.
- The Jags are 1-16 when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the start of last season. The Buccaneers average 98.3 yards per game on the ground.
- Tampa Bay has the NFL’s second-best rush defense with an average of 78.7 yards allowed per game. It’s second-worst in the NFL with 30.5 points per game allowed.
- The Jaguars are 7-0 when not committing a turnover since the beginning of 2017. The Bucs rank seventh with 17 takeaways on the year.
- Tampa Bay is minus-10 in turnover differential. Jacksonville is neutral.
Buccaneers at Jaguars: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:50 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Jaguars 25, Buccaneers 21
Moneyline (?)
The JAGUARS (-106) have lost three straight games, but they’re 2-3 at home this season. The Buccaneers (-115) are slight road favorites with a 3-3 record as the visitors. The Bucs beat the rival Atlanta Falcons 35-22 on the road last week, while the Jags lost 42-20 at the rival Tennessee Titans.
Jacksonville will win the turnover battle, as most teams do against the Bucs, and come away with the home win.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Jags to win outright returns a profit of $9.43.
Against the Spread (?)
The more profitable play is siding with the JAGUARS (-1.5, +105) to cover the meager spread and win by two or more points. Jacksonville is 5-6 against the spread, but fails to cover by an average of four points per game. Tampa Bay is just 3-8 ATS, but has a neutral differential against the projections – helped largely by last week’s blowout win as an underdog.
Over/Under (?)
Take the UNDER 48.5 (-115). The Bucs are a league-best 9-2 against the Over/Under, and they top the projected total by an average of 9.8 points per game. The Jags are 6-5 against the projections and top the number by only 0.8 points per game. This is the highest point projection for the Jags since Week 1 and they haven’t scored more than 20 points as a team in three straight games.
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Esten’s NFL betting record: 29-34
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