Tag: J.D. McKissic

The Honolulu Blueprint: Keys to a Lions victory over the Cowboys in Week 11

The Honolulu Blueprint: Identifying several key strategies the Lions will need to do, in order to be victorious over the Cowboys in Week 11.

If the Detroit Lions (3-5-1) want to shock the world and come away with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys (5-4) in Week 11, they’ll need to follow this week’s Honolulu Blueprint and execute several key strategies.

Let’s take a look at the key components the Lions need to take advantage of in Week 11.

Lean on Jeff Driskel’s strengths

By this point, we all know Matthew Stafford has been ruled out and the Lions will be starting Jeff Driskel for the second consecutive week. Last week, Driskel wasn’t notified he would get the ball until the morning of the game, but this week it’s been clear from Monday, Driskel would start again.

The extra time should afford the Lions the opportunity to prepare a game plan suited to Driskel’s strengths, which are listed below per Lions Wire’s own Jeff Risdon’s evaluation:

  • Very athletic and creative outside the pocket
  • Above-average arm strength and zip on deeper throws
  • Mechanics don’t break down on the move
  • Improved his footwork and developed a more consistent release point that really helped his accuracy
  • Enthusiastic presence on the sideline and in the huddle

The Lions opened last week’s game with a read-option and Driskel gave the ball to J.D. McKissic for a 10-yard run. As the game progressed, Driskel would keep the ball on five runs, amassing a team-leading 37-yards (one more than McKissic). Expect the Lions to continue relying on Driskel’s 4.56 speed to move the ball on the ground.

They also need to test the Cowboys deep, like they did in the clip below, which encompasses all five of Risdon’s positive attributes into one play:

This play was one of only three deep shots (passes over 20 yards) taken by Driskel on the afternoon — and the only one he connected on — but there is enough potential there for the Lions to increase the frequency of plays like this.

Keep hitting the safety valves

When a young quarterback is in trouble he often relies on tight ends and running backs to alleviate pressure. Last week, Driskel leaned on his running backs early and tight ends late, totaling 19 targets, with 14 of them being completed for a collective 100-yards.

Similarly, last week, the Cowboys allowed the Vikings tight ends and running backs to complete 17 of 20 passes for 136 yards, two touchdowns, and a 2-pt conversion.

While the Lions should test the Cowboys secondary with the deep ball, players like McKissic and T.J. Hockenson need to step up and provide Driskel with reliable and consistent options in the passing game.

Time of possession/Fast start

The Dallas Cowboys offense is potent, checking in as Football Outsider’s top DVOA offense, earning the No. 2 rushing and No. 3 passing spots on offense. There’s no doubt the Lions defense will be challenged but the Lions offense can help in two major ways: time of possession and scoring early.

In the Cowboys’ four losses, they lost the time of possession in three of them, and in all four games, they trailed heading into the locker room at halftime:

  • Saints held the ball for 36:04 and led 9-3 at the half
  • Packers 36:43 and led 17-0 at the half
  • Jets only had the ball for 27:57 but got out to a 21-6 at the half
  • Vikings 33:27, ahead 14-0 after 1st quarter and 17-14 at the half

Bottom line: keep the Cowboys’ offense on the sidelines.

Focus on Ezekiel Elliot 1st, Dak Prescott 2nd

Elliot is one of the best running backs in the league and while the Lions have historically had trouble containing him, that shouldn’t deter the Lions from focusing on slowing him down first.

While the Cowboys rushing attack is aggressive and efficient, they failed to break 50 yards rushing in two of their losses (Saints and Vikings), averaging 2.3 yards per attempt in both games.

The Lions run defense has struggled all season, but in two of their last three games, they did not allow a rushing touchdown and held their opponent to 80 (Giants) and 81 yards (Bears) on the ground — with 3.3 and 3.4 yards per attempt average respectively.

If the Lions can build on their recent success, it’ll go a long way to helping them earn a win.

Attack the weakness on the OL

The Cowboys offensive line is one of the best in the NFL and features three first-round picks (Tyron Smith Zack Martin, and Travis Frederick), one of the highest-paid right tackle in the league (La’el Collins, who should’ve been a first-round pick if not for a timely investigation) and a third-round pick in Connor Williams.

Williams, the Cowboys starting left guard, currently has a knee injury and will miss this game. He will be replaced by Xavier Su’a-Filo, and according to Pro Football Focus, it’s a major downgrade — Su’a-Filo has a PFF grade 24.2 points lower than Williams.

Expect the Lions to attack Su’a-Filo with a variety of combinations. Look for the Lions to initially deploy Damon Harrison over him, and when Su’a-Filo gets used to the power, they will shift Trey Flowers inside to try and expose him with athleticism. Additionally, look for Jarrad Davis to attack Su’a-Filo’s A-gap responsibility to keep him guessing.

Be opportunistic

There are only two teams in the NFL who have the same numbers turnovers as takeaways — the Lions and Cowboys both have 12 of each.

Whoever wins this battle will have a big advantage. Look no further than the results from these teams last three games:

  • Lions lost to Bears – lost turnover battle 1-0
  • Lions lost to Raiders – lost turnover battle 2-0
  • Lions beat Giants – won the turnover battle 1-0
  • Cowboys lost to Vikings, lost turnover battle 1-0
  • Cowboys beat Giants, won the turnover battle 3-2
  • Cowboys beat Eagles, won the turnover battle 4-1

It’s not definitive, but win the turnover battle and you have a decisive advantage towards winning the game.

Fantasy football sleepers for Week 11

Quarterbacks Derek Carr and Sam Darnold highlight this week’s list of fantasy football sleepers.

Week 11 could be a difficult one at quarterback for fantasy football owners. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Seattle’s Russell Wilson, two of the best, are in their bye weeks.

That means you could be scrambling for a quarterback. In this week’s edition of fantasy football sleepers, we offer Oakland’s Derek Carr and New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold as suggestions to start. Also, some free advice: don’t be tempted and start Washington’s Dwayne Haskins. Yes, interim coach Bill Callahan named him the starter for the rest of the season, but Haskins is raw and won’t put up a lot of fantasy points.

Here are nine fantasy football sleepers for Week 11:

9. Sam Darnold, QB, New York Jets

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Darnold had a solid game, throwing 230 yards and a touchdown in last week’s victory against the Giants. He’s got a favorable matchup this week against the Redskins. In fact, matchups with the Raiders, Bengals and Dolphins follow that. Darnold could be more than a one-week starter.

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7 waiver wire pickups in fantasy football for Week 11

Target these players on the waiver wire in Week 11.

This NFL season has been more unpredictable than any year I can remember. Constant injuries to big-name players and then even injuries to their backups have provided little room for consistency. When it comes to fantasy football, this has been the dagger for most people who thought they drafted the perfect team.

It goes to show that fantasy football is a gamble. You never really know what a player is going to do week to week and we all know projected points mean less and less each week. However it is Week 11 and for those of you who have not quit your leagues altogether, it may not be too late.

With Green Bay, Tennessee, New York (Giants) and Seattle all on a bye, here are your waiver wire pickups for Week 11 to help you make that playoff push:

(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

WR James Washington — 18.3% rostered (ESPN)

With the revolving door of quarterbacks in Pittsburgh this season, James Washington has not had the breakout sophomore season everyone predicted. On Sunday against the rams, however, the Oklahoma State product connection finally flourished between Washington and quarterback Mason Rudolph.

Washington finished the day with six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. As the Steelers keep winning games and having success throwing the ball, look for Washington to be included more and more in this young offense. The Steelers travel to Cleveland to face the Browns on Thursday night.

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Lions week 10 snap counts: Jarrad Davis thrives on lower snap counts

Detroit Lions Week 10 snap counts observations include Jarrad Davis’ having his best game of the year in a game where he saw his lowest snap counts of the season.

When examining the Detroit Lions (3-5-1) snap counts from Week 10, one glaring thing stood out: Jarrad Davis’ had his best game of the year in a game where he saw his lowest snap counts of the season.

That and more takeaways from this week’s snap counts below:

No Matthew Stafford means it’s Jeff Driskel time

Jeff Driskel — 83, 100-percent

With Stafford’s status moving forward very much in question, we may see a lot more of Driskel in the near future.

Guard rotation declines, Tyrell Crosby steps up

LT Taylor Decker — 83, 100-percent
LG Joe Dahl — 75, 90-percent
C Frank Ragnow — 83, 100-percent
RG Graham Glasgow — 79, 95-percent
RT Rick Wagner — 28, 34-percent
RT Tyrell Crosby — 56, 67-percent
OG Kenny Wiggins — 15, 18-percent

Wiggins saw one series filling in for Glasgow and one for Dahl, down from the two series he had seen in previous weeks.

Crosby took over for Wagner when he left the game due to a concussion and Crosby will likely hold down this position as Wagner moves through the NFL protocol.

The Lions continued to use six offensive linemen sets — four times in this game — beginning with Crosby in his typical role. But when Crosby was needed to take over at right tackle, Wiggins took over this role for the final three snaps.

Ty Johnson’s exit forces J.D. McKissic into the spotlight

J.D. McKissic — 58, 70-percent
Paul Perkins — 15, 18-percent
Ty Johnson — 12, 14-percent
Nick Bawden — 11, 13-percent

Depending on the severity of Johnson’s concussion, we could see a roster move at the position sometime this week. Regardless of what happens, McKissic has proven himself as Driskel’s preferred safety valve — he saw seven targets in the passing game — and will likely be holding down an extensive role moving forward.

Three receiver sets see the majority of the snaps

Kenny Golladay — 78, 94-percent
Marvin Jones Jr. — 76, 92-percent
Danny Amendola — 56, 67-percent
Marvin Hall — 11, 13-percent

Golladay and Jones rarely left the field, while Amendola has now put together four games in a row of over 60-percent of offensive snaps.

Hall’s numbers were down a bit from normal, but with Driskel at the helm — and coaches keeping things simple for him in his first start — it’s not overly surprising. As Driskel gets more comfortable in this offense, expect him to take more deep shots downfield — he has the arm strength to do it — and that means more opportunities for Hall.

Tight end snaps declining

T.J. Hockenson — 48, 58-percent
Jesse James — 28, 34-percent
Logan Thomas — 18, 22-percent

With the Bears’ weakness covering the tight end, these numbers were surprisingly low. Over the last month, Hockenson has seen about two-thirds of snaps, while James has leveled off at around one-third.

Lions DL snaps down due to injury

A’Shawn Robinson — 29, 51-percent
Damon Harrison — 25, 44-percent
Mike Daniels — 21, 37-percent
John Atkins — 20, 35-percent
Kevin Strong — 12, 21-percent

Every player on this list either (save Atkins) entered the game with an injury, suffered an injury during the game, or both. Expect these numbers to increase with their health.

Flowers snaps rise, Kennard’s decline

Trey Flowers — 50, 88-percent
Devon Kennard — 39, 68-percent

With no Romeo Okwara available and injuries on the interior, Flowers saw a significant increase to snap count — his highest of the season.

Kennard has seen his snap percentage drop from the 90-percentile to the 80-percentile, but this week was a season-low. The Lions use a heavy rotation at linebacker in this game and Kennard’s usage reflected that.

Jarrad Davis sees lowest snaps of season, thrives

Jarrad Davis — 44, 77-percent
Christian Jones — 41, 72-percent
Jahlani Tavai — 38, 67-percent

Davis, like Kennard, saw his lowest snap percentage of the season, but Davis responded with his best game of the year. Maybe the light bulb turned on for Davis in this one, but with less responsibility on his plate — Tavai was calling plays at different points during this game —  he responded in a positive way.

Jones snaps stayed close to his average snap total, while Tavai’s streak of seeing over 50-percent of defensive snaps is now at five games in a row. Tavai’s increase in responsibilities and consistent snap counts suggest a larger role for him in the near future.

3 and 4 corner sets rise

Rashaan Melvin — 57, 100-percent
Darius Slay — 55, 96-percent
Justin Coleman — 46, 81-percent
Mike Ford — 15, 26-percent

Slay and Melvin were back to their starting cornerback roles, while Coleman settled back into his typical nickel corner role. Coleman was replaced on the field at times by Ford in an apparent effort to exploit a speed-on-speed matchup.

3 safety sets return to average

Will Harris — 57, 100-percent
Tavon Wilson — 56, 98-percent
C.J. Moore — 22, 39-percent

Despite Tracy Walker missing another game, the Lions returned to their standard three safety rotation usage, with undrafted rookie Moore taking on his highest defensive snap counts of the season.

Moore also led the team in special teams snaps. As usual, he and Dee Virgin are one-two in third-phase snaps.

Special teams

C.J. Moore — 27
Dee Virgin — 26
Jalen Reeves-Maybin — 23
Steve Longa — 23
Nick Bawden — 22
Logan Thomas — 22
Mike Ford — 20
Will Harris — 19
Jamal Agnew — 17
Paul Perkins — 16
Christian Jones — 11
Amani Oruwariye — 9
Tavon  Wilson — 9
Jesse James — 6
Jahlani Tavai — 5
Justin Coleman — 5
Jarrad Davis — 4
Devon Kennard — 4
Trey Flowers — 4
Marvin Hall — 4

Fantasy football waiver wire targets after Week 10: The fallout of the Devonta Freeman injury

Picking up the pieces after injuries to Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper.

There aren’t a bounty of strong options on the waiver wire this week. Hopefully you were busy on the trade market, and hopefully there will be more movement on the wire to come. With an injuries to Detroit Lions running back Ty Johnson and Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman, there are some waiver wire options worth targeting, and they could even be viable starters for a few weeks.

There will be two situations worth monitoring for next week. San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle and Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper are both dealing with injuries. Their backups may become fill-in options.

Here are the waiver wire targets after Week 10 and for Week 11.

5. Falcons and 49ers tight ends

Two of the best tight ends in fantasy football are dealing with injuries. The Falcons’ pecking order is a puzzle. It’s entirely possible they turn to their receivers, if Hooper misses time. But maybe tight end Luke Stocker can step up.

It’s a similar story in San Francisco, with Kittle set to miss Monday night’s game in Week 10. We’ll get a chance to see if second-year pro Ross Dwelley can step out without Kittle. Dwelley might be rostering if he plays well, just in case Kittle misses additional time.

4. J.D. McKissic, RB, Detroit Lions

ESPN: 15%. Yahoo! 21%.

When Ty Johnson left the game with a concussion, McKissic took over. The Chicago Bears made life difficult for McKissic, even with an increased ownership of touches. He finished the game with 10 carries for 36 yards and six receptions for 19 yards. In PPR formats, McKissic’s value would be on the rise if Johnson misses time.

3. Brian Hill, RB, Atlanta Falcons

ESPN: .3%. Yahoo! 3%.

It’s unclear how long Devonta Freeman could be out, but he seems to be dealing with an ankle issue. That gave life to Hill, who finished with 20 carries for 61 yards and a 10-yard touchdown reception in Week 10. He may end up being the workhorse back in Atlanta for a few weeks.

2. Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants

ESPN: 12%. Yahoo! 10%.

Slayton had been quietly putting together a solid season until the last three weeks when he’s put up four touchdowns, with two in Week 10 and two in Week 8. He’s probably not a plug-and-play starter, but has proven a reliable red-zone threat. This season, he has 45 receptions, 394 yards and five touchdowns. He could be worth a roster spot.

1. Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins

ESPN: 38%. Yahoo! 37%.

Before suffering an injury, he was the team’s starting running back, with the Redskins benching Adrian Peterson. Somehow, the ageless wonder has gone on to have a productive season. But with Guice coming back, it’s easy to imagine him splitting carries, at least. The Redskins will want to see what Guice can contribute as they continue to play for the future. He should return to being a big part of their offense.

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