Bills vs. Chiefs: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 11

Bills vs. Chiefs: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 11

The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs in their upcoming Week 11 matchup.

Even though these two teams are extremely familiar with one another, it will still be the games, within the game, that will make all the difference.

Here are three key matchups to watch during Sunday’s Bills-Chiefs contest:

Bills running backs vs. Chiefs front seven

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The Bills have enjoyed a resurgence in their running game this year. James Cook has had 80 or more rushing yards in three of his last five games, and he has five rushing touchdowns over that stretch. Buffalo has found a true complement to Josh Allen’s passing game. But, rushing yards should be tougher to come by this week.

The Chiefs allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game this year (83.2). And, advanced metrics back up their play, too. Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in defense rushing DVOA.

Whoever wins this matchup will play a big role in the game. If the Bills can run the ball effectively, it will open up anything they want to do on offense. If they can’t, they’ll have to rely on the arm and legs of Allen.

DE Greg Rousseau vs. LT Wanya Morris

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Kansas City’s left tackle has had his struggles this year, and he’s coming off a knee injury in Week 10. Rousseau, on the other hand, is having his best season as a pro.

Morris ranks as the 62nd-best offensive tackle in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, while Rousseau grades as the eighth-best pass rusher among edge defenders.

Rousseau has just 5.5 sacks through ten games, but he has been consistently getting after the passer. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 19 QB knockdowns and is tied for 10th in the NFL with 22 pressures.

Patrick Mahomes vs. the second level of Bills’ D

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The Chiefs quarterback loves to get the ball out quickly in head coach Andy Reid’s offense. They put a lot of trust in their skill players to catch underneath passes and produce yards after the catch. In turn, this puts a lot of stress on Bills defenders to make plays in space.

More specifically, Buffalo’s linebackers (and slot corner Taron Johnson) will have their hands full while trying to stop the run, cover the pass, and make sound tackles in space.

When these teams met in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs, the Bills were without Terrel Bernard in the middle of the defense. They had trouble on defense in that game, so we will see what kind of difference Bernard can make in this rivalry.

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3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Chiefs in Week 11

3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Chiefs in Week 11

The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs at home at Highmark Stadium in Week 11.

The Bills (8-2) are looking to build on a five-game win streak, while the Chiefs (9-0) haven’t lost since Christmas Day in 2023.

Buffalo is favored to win by 2.5 points in this one. In the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen era, the Chiefs hold the advantage over the Bills, winning four of the seven meetings. However, Buffalo is 3-1 in the regular season against KC.

Even though the Bills are favored, the Chiefs are undefeated for a reason.

The Bills will need to execute their game plan to pick up their ninth win of the year.

With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 11:

Make stops on third down

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The Chiefs have the NFL’s best third-down offense. They convert on third downs 52% of the time. They can stay on the field longer because they convert on the most crucial down more than anyone. Kansas City leads the league in time of possession.

Although the Chiefs offense isn’t as explosive as they have been in past years (11th in points per game), they don’t have to be. Kansas City keeps the opposing team’s offense off the field and limit points from the opposition. If the Bills defense could get off the field on some crucial third downs, it would improve their chances greatly.

Make drives count

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Because the Chiefs dominate time of possession, their defense has seen only 87 drives so far this year, which is the least in the NFL. That means, on average, opposing teams only get about 9.5 drives per game. If you are Buffalo, you need to make those possessions count.

The more drives that end in a touchdown for the Bills, the more difficult it will be for the Chiefs to play their 2024 brand of football. Every possession in the NFL is something to be cherished, but against a team like the Chiefs, you must take advantage of opportunities when you get them. They don’t come around often for Kansas City’s opponents this year.

Get pressure on Mahomes

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The Chiefs have had difficulty at their left tackle position this year. Rookie Kingsley Suamataia got the nod to start the year but was replaced by Wanya Morris in Week 3 due to performance. Morris, although more consistent than Suamataia, still struggles at times. He has received a 56.4 offense grade this year according to Pro Football Focus, which ranks 62nd in the NFL among tackles.

Bills edge rushers, Greg Rousseau in particular, should be in line for opportunities to get after Mahomes in Week 11.

The Chiefs have allowed four sacks in each of their last two games, and the Bills defense is coming off of a four-sack outing against the Indianapolis Colts.

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PFF: Highest-graded Bills players on defense vs. the Seahawks

PFF: Highest-graded Bills players on defense vs. the Seahawks

The Buffalo Bills defeated the Seattle Seahawks on the road in Week 8, 31-10.

Statistics might help determine who played well or not, and so may the eye test. But, let’s take it a step further with some help from the analytics folks at Pro Football Focus.

Using PFF grades from Week 8, here are the five highest-graded players from the Bills (6-2) defense against the Seahawks (4-4).

PFF grade: 74.6.

PFF grade: 75.7.

PFF grade: 77.4.

PFF grade: 82.2.

PFF grade: 86.3.

Bills’ Greg Rousseau helps Sabres kick off their season

Bills’ Greg Rousseau helps Sabres kick off their season

Technically it was not their first game as the Buffalo Sabres played out in Europe to kick off their 2024-25 regular season schedule.

But on Thursday, the Sabres had their first contest at home at KeyBank Center. The Sabres ended up losing to the Los Angeles Kings 3-1, but Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau was in the house.

Rousseau banged the drum to kick off a “Let’s Go Buffalo” chant at the start of the game.

Check it out below:

Bills at Texans: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 5

Bills at Texans: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 5

The Buffalo Bills will visit the Houston Texans in their upcoming Week 5 matchup.

Even with it being a an AFC clash, it will still be the games, within the game, that will make all the difference.

Here are three key matchups to watch during Sunday’s Bills-Texans contest:

CB Rasul Douglas vs. WR Nico Collins

(Imagn)

Not Stefon Diggs?! Well, the former Bills player is not the Texans’ No. 1 playmaker. That’s Collins and he has burst onto the NFL scene. Douglas and fellow outside cornerback Christian Benford have played great this season and this will be a fun matchup to watch.

OL Spencer Brown vs. DE Will Anderson Jr.

(Getty)

Brown had a poor outing against the Baltimore Ravens in a 35-10 loss last week. He needs to be better. Pro Football Focus graded him as Buffalo’s worst offensive lineman in that outing.

Anderson, the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2023, was selected there for good reason: He is good. Anderson has 2.5 sacks so far this this season.

DE Greg Rousseau vs. OL Laremy Tunsil

(USAT)

Von Miller was having a good season… and now he’s suspended for four games. Rousseau will be someone who needs to help fill that pass-rushing void and he could see plenty of Tunsil. The tackle has dealt with an ankle injury which is something the Bills’ pass rush could hope hampers his game.

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Bills at Ravens: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 4

Bills at Ravens: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 4

The Buffalo Bills will visit the Baltimore Ravens for an AFC clash on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 4.

The Bills (3-0) and Ravens (1-2) have had different starts to the season, and a desperate Ravens team hoping to avoid a 1-3 start could make this a back-and-forth affair. The games within the game will make the difference on Sunday.

Here are three key matchups to watch during the Bills-Ravens contest:

DE Greg Rousseau vs. LT Ronnie Stanley

(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

Ravens’ Ronnie Stanley is a former All-Pro left tackle, but he will have his hands full on Sunday night. With most of the Ravens’ offensive line being banged up going into Week 4, the healthy Stanley will be leaned upon even more so by the Ravens. The bad news for Stanley is he is going to be tasked with stopping the penetration of Greg Rousseau.

Rousseau moves to both sides of the defensive line, but when he is matched up with Stanley, it will be power vs. power. The winner of this matchup could prove vital.

QB Lamar Jackson vs. Bills secondary

 (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

If Bills head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich have one thing on their mind going into the game, it’s stopping the Ravens’ rushing attack.

Last week against the Dallas Cowboys, the Ravens led for much of the game and only threw 15 total passes. This week should be different. Lamar Jackson will be forced to pass more often, and when he does, the Bills secondary will most likely be lurking in zone coverage. The Bills are eighth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, and corners Christian Benford and Rasual Douglas are performing like one of the league’s best outside duos.

RB James Cook vs. LB Roquan Smith

 (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

The Ravens are the best in the league at stuffing the run, allowing just 50 yards per game. Their defensive line, ranked third in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, has a few high-level players in Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, and Nnamdi Madubuike. These three, in the Ravens’ 3-4 base defense, should eat up blocks at times and allow their linebackers to come downhill.

This will set up Cook against a linebacker in the hole. Roquan Smith is struggling in run defense. He’s ranked 42nd in run defense grade for linebackers by PFF. On the contrary, James Cook is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. If running with Cook gets bottled up but the Ravens’ front, the Bills should be able to find success in targeting their backs and slot receivers in the passing game. Ravens’ linebackers Trenton Simpson and Smith rank 35th and 50th in PFF coverage grade for linebackers, respectively.

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Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

After starting the regular season 0-2, the Jacksonville Jaguars look to get in the win column for the first time this year as they travel to Buffalo for Monday Night Football in Week 3. 

This week the Jaguars are still searching for their identity on offense and are currently facing scrutiny for their inconsistent offensive execution and play-calling. This could prove detrimental in trying to keep up with the Bills, which feature one of the powerhouse offenses in the AFC, led by quarterback Josh Allen.

Week 3 of the regular season is now a must-win for the Jaguars and they must prove they can contend with top teams in the conference like the Bills. Finding their offensive identity and consistency will be key, and if they fail to do so at this crucial point of the season on the national stage, it will become fair to wonder if their issues can be fixed this year.

With that in mind, Jaguars Wire is here to identify three key matchups for Jacksonville’s Week 3 road matchup against Buffalo, which the Jaguars must win to avoid digging themselves into a deeper hole. 

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Bills’ linebackers and slot cornerback

Through two games, the Jaguars starting slot receiver has just two catches on seven targets for 29 yards. While it is early in the season, Kirk’s lack of significant targets has been concerning, especially amid Jacksonville’s offensive struggles. 

Yet, Monday night presents an opportunity for Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor and head coach Doug Pederson to get Kirk heavily involved in the offensive game plan.

The Bills’ man coverage rate this season is just 20 percent as they remain a zone-heavy, two-high safety team that will leave plenty of green grass. That creates an advantage for Kirk, who has a knack for identifying the soft spots in zone coverage. 

A top target in the middle of the field for quarterback Trevor Lawrence over the last two seasons, Kirk led the Jaguars with 1,108 receiving yards in 2022 and was on track for over 1,000 in 2023 before a Week 13, year-ending injury. He has proven productive and effective with an average target separation of over three yards in the last two seasons.

With linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson out for Monday night’s bout, Buffalo could be thin at both spots, meaning Jacksonville could open up its passing game with Kirk as the focal point.

Baylon Spector and Cam Lewis are expected to start in place of Bernard and Johnson, respectively.

Jacksonville’s defense vs. Buffalo’s offense

While the Jaguars’ offense has sputtered to this point, Jacksonville’s defense is respectable, and daring in coverage.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jacksonville aligned its outside corners in press coverage on 36 percent of snaps. That is the fourth-highest mark in the league, showing that defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen trusts his corners on an island.

The unit deploys Cover 1 coverage 53% of the time, per Hayden Winks, despite the absence of cornerback Tyson Campbell. Nielsen utilizes broad man coverage on 52.6 percent of opposing dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.

Thus far, passers are averaging 6.5 passing yards per play against the Jaguars, ranking No. 21 in the league. Quarterbacks are struggling to score through the air against Jacksonville, though, as Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson combined to throw for one touchdown in Weeks 1-2.

Jacksonville’s man coverage will be tested against arguably the best NFL signal-caller not named Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and his offensive coordinator Joe Brady on Monday night.

Next Gen Stats show Allen producing the lowest air yards per attempt of his career at 7.4 this season, despite his career-high 73.8% completion percentage through the first two games. This shows that Brady is allowing Allen to distribute the ball around the offense and trusting receivers to compete after the catch.

Considering how difficult Allen is to defend as both a passer and runner, there’s a possibility Nielsen could veer off his man coverage path and play more zone this week. Perhaps it is unlikely given his tendencies as a play-caller, but this is something to keep in mind ahead of Monday night.

Not only will Allen present a tough task, but so will tight end Dalton Kincaid, running back James Cook and receiver Khalil Shakir. The latter owns the highest catch rate of all wide receivers in the league at 88.7 percent.

If Jacksonville can force Allen into bad decisions against its man-heavy defense and limit his rushing opportunities, the Jaguars’ struggling offense should obtain more opportunities to find a rhythm compared to previous games.

Jacksonville’s offense vs. Buffalo’s defense 

While Kirk could be the focus of the Jaguars’ passing offense against the Bills, the unit must perform better situationally across the board in its attempt to establish an identity of any sort.

It starts up front. Lawrence’s protection must improve Monday night against a strong Bills pass rush featuring Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau.

Lawrence has been sacked on a league-high 11.5 percent of dropbacks this season, according to Next Gen Stats. Perhaps Lawrence is responsible for some of the pressure he has faced, but Pro Football Focus dings Jacksonville’s offensive line for allowing six of the seven sacks he has taken.

Next Gen Stats also notes the Jaguars own the third-worst time to pressure in the NFL in 2024, 2.57 seconds.

While explosive plays have occasionally popped up from the likes of running back Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr, the Jaguars must do a better job of winning on early downs to make third downs more manageable and become less reliant on chunk gains.

Jacksonville has converted just over 26% of its third-down attempts, the fifth-worst mark in the league ahead of Denver, Atlanta, Cleveland and Carolina. The offense will sail much smoother if it can improve drastically in this area.

The Jaguars will be without versatile tight end Evan Engram again this week after suffering a hamstring injury during pregame warmups last Sunday. His absence is why Kirk will be the X-factor for the Jaguars’ passing offense, paired with the Bills’ top linebacker and nickel cornerback out. 

Pederson cannot afford his team to fall to a 0-3 record. His defense is capable of helping win games, but it is Jacksonville’s offense, Pederson’s bread and butter, costing the Jaguars the most.

That has to change on Monday night.

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky: Bills defensive line is ‘starting to show itself’

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky: ‘(Bills’) defensive line is starting to show itself’

After a slow start in the first half of Week 1, the Buffalo Bills’ pass rush has been dominant to start the season, and it has national media personalities buzzing about their potential this year.

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky joined the Bills’ radio program “One Bills Live” this week and complimented the Bills’ D-line, more specifically the pass rush.

“It’s two weeks into the season, but I do think the [Bills’] defensive line is starting to show itself when it gets to Ed [Oliver], [AJ] Epenesa, Greg [Rousseau], and Von [Miller] in some of those obvious pass situations,” Orlovsky said.

There were concerns about the pass rush going into the season after losing Leonard Floyd to the San Francisco 49ers, but Rousseau has taken his game to another level in year three and Miller looks like his old self. Parlay that with a steady force in Oliver in the middle, and this puts their pass rush among the best in the league to start the season.

“I think the way that Buffalo is handling Von is really smart… I think Greg is really starting to show himself… Ed obviously had another big game,” Orlovsky said.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Bills have the fourth-best pass-rush grade in the NFL, trailing only the Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. The run defense has looked middle-of-the-pack thus far, but it has done enough to put the opposing offenses in second-and-long and third-and-long situations. That is when the pass rush is getting there in a blink, some ending in sacks but most affecting the throw from the quarterback.

Through two weeks, the Bills are tied for tenth in sacks (6), and tied for fourth in interceptions (3).

The Bills’ pass rush will try to disrupt the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense on “Monday Night Football,” much like the Browns did in Week 2 when they posted ten hurries and four sacks on 17 total pressures.

“You do not want either of those tackles single blocking Rousseau and or Von right now,” warned Orlovsky regarding the Jaguars’ offensive tackles.

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Bills’ Greg Rousseau named Defensive Player of the Week vs. Cardinals

#Bills’ Greg Rousseau named Defensive Player of the Week vs. Cardinals:

Take a bow, Greg Rousseau.

In the Buffalo Bills’ season-opening win over the Arizona Cardinals, the pass rusher had a Week 1 for the ages.

During the 34-28 victory, Rousseau had three sacks, one of which was a forced fumble. That effort tied a franchise record for the most sacks in a season opener, joining Ben Williams (1983).

On top of that, Rousseau only had five sacks all of last year.

Rousseau have that strip-sack on Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray, but that’s not the only reason it was his biggest play of the day.

That turnover led to the Bills eventually taking their first lead of the game.

Earlier on this offseason, Rousseau had the fifth-year option on his rookie contract picked up by the Bills. If efforts like Week 1 continue for the 24-year-old, clamour for Rousseau to get signed to a long-term extension will only continue to grow.

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Alontae Taylor leads the league in sacks after Week 1

Alontae Taylor’s three sacks against the Panthers is tied for the league lead with Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau:

Every team has played at least one game to start the 2024 season, and just like after Sunday’s slate, New Orleans Saints defensive back Alontae Taylor still leads the league in sacks.

He along with Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau sits at the top of the league after sacking the quarterback three times in Week 1. Taylor is one of ten players to register multiple sacks in their season opener this week. He’s the only defensive back among the group.

Taylor displayed a quality not seen before in his professional career. He brought down Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young three times. Prior to this, Taylor had only sacked a quarterback once. Carolina’s offensive line had no answers when the nickel was sent in to blitz.

For Young’s shortcomings in his professional career, he is still a mobile quarterback. You saw that come into play on Sunday. The Saints’ typically bigger defensive lineman were eluded a few times despite generating pressure — Chase Young had at least five of them without registering a sack.

But Taylor was efficient and brought Young down for a Saints record and league-leading three sacks. We’ll see if he can keep it up as the season continues. Dennis Allen has always shown a willingness to send defensive backs into the breach for added pressure, going back to guys like Roman Harper and Kenny Vaccaro, so you have to think opposing teams will do a better job preparing for this new wrinkle in Taylor’s game sooner or later. But there’s a lot to be said for starting so hot.

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