Tag: Golf Best Bets

How to bet Tiger Woods at the Genesis Invitational: Outright odds & props

Looking at Tiger Woods’ chances of success at the 2020 Genesis Invitational, including PGA Tour betting options within the tournament.

Tiger Woods will take his second attempt at breaking the PGA Tour’s all-time wins records this week when he tees it up at the 2020 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, Calif. He’ll be competing against the strongest PGA Tour field of the year to date.

We look at Tiger’s chances of claiming his 83rd career victory, with PGA Tour betting odds and picks for the 2020 Genesis Invitational.

Tiger Woods’ history at Riviera Country Club

Woods, the tournament host, has never won at Riviera Country Club, which has hosted an annual event since 1999. He was a co-runner-up in ’99, finishing two strokes behind Ernie Els in a tie with Davis Love III and Ted Tryba. He didn’t play in the 1995 PGA Championship held at Riviera.

Tiger finished in a tie for 15th last year, two months before his Masters win, but he missed the cut in 2018 in his first appearance since withdrawing from the 2006 Nissan Open. He has made 12 career appearances at Riviera without a win.

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Tiger Woods’ key stats for the Genesis Invitational

Based on historical tournament data from Fantasy National, my key stats for the week are:

  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Birdies Gained
  • Driving Distance Gained
  • Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 Yards

The model looks at the last 50 rounds on courses between 7,200 and 7,400 yards.

Tiger ranks eighth by the overall stat model with a top rank of 10th in Birdies Gained. He’s one spot behind Adam Scott and a spot ahead of Jon Rahm. His worst field rank is a 48th in Par 4 Efficiency on the longer holes.

Outright odds for the Genesis Invitational

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8 a.m. ET.

Woods is +1600 to win the 2020 Genesis Invitational, entering the week as the fifth favorite. While it’s a better number than he had at the Farmers Insurance Open (+1100) for his 2020 debut at Torrey Pines (a course which he’s had much more success at) there are better options with more enticing odds. Brooks Koepka, ranked No. 2 in the Official World Golf Ranking, is +2000 to win outright. Three-time Riviera champ Bubba Watson is +2200.

I would rather back Woods at +175 to finish in the Top 10. This is a loaded 120-man field featuring eight of the top 10 golfers in the world, and there are other values with better course history. It’s a good week to play it a little safer with Tiger as he ramps up his preparation for the 2020 Masters Tournament.

Best Props on Tiger Woods to win the Genesis Invitational

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Woods, ranked eighth in the OWGR to begin the week, is in a group with Rory McIlroy (1), Jon Rahm (3), Justin Thomas (4) and Dustin Johnson (5). Accordingly, he has the longest odds of the five golfers in Group A at +500. I like this number less than the outright odds, as the winner is most likely to come from this group. PASS.

For head-to-head betting, Tiger (+100) is paired against Johnson (-125), who won the then-Genesis Open by a five-stroke margin at 17-under par in 2017. There is value in backing the two to tie at +1600. It’s my favorite play for Tiger this week.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Genesis Invitational odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 Genesis Invitational, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

The 2020 Genesis Invitational hosts a field of 120 golfers this week in Pacific Palisades Calif. Eight of the top-10 golfers from the Official World Golf Ranking are among them, making this the top PGA Tour event of the season thus far. Below, we’ll analyze the golf betting odds, while making our picks to win the 2020 Genesis Invitational.

The key stats for the 7,322-yard, par-71 Riviera Country Club are:

  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Birdies Gained
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
  • Driving Distance Gained

My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 50 rounds on courses between 7,200 and 7,400 yards.

Genesis Invitational – Tier 1

Aug 25, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka hug after the final round of the Tour Championship golf tournament at East Lake Golf Club. (Photo Credit: Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9 p.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+2000)

There isn’t likely to be anyone in the field this week more motivated than Koepka, who gave up the No. 1 spot in the OWGR to Rory McIlroy Monday morning. With the bump in the rankings, Koepka’s outright odds to win a tournament plummeted. By contrast, Koepka is +900 to win the Masters, +1000 to win the Open Championship, +800 for the US Open and +800 for the PGA Championship.

While he missed the cut in 2017 (his only appearance in the last five years), this is nearly a major-caliber field. Koepka remains second in the OWGR but he’s seventh by the odds this week.

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Adam Scott (+3000)

Scott ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained at Riviera among those with a minimum of 10 rounds played on the course. Ranked 14th in the world, he’s coming off a win at the Australian PGA Championship in late December and is well rested. He looks to become the third Aussie to win on the PGA Tour in 2020 behind Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith.

Genesis Invitational – Tier 2

Jan 24, 2020; San Diego, California, USA; Collin Morikawa watches his shot from the fifth tee during the second round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course – South Course. (Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

Collin Morikawa (+4500)

Morikawa has never participated in this event, but he offers adequate value after routinely being priced among the favorites in the weaker early-season events. He still hasn’t missed a cut as a professional, and he ranks 18th by the overall stat model as a great ball striker.

Kevin Na (+6600)

Na tied for 33rd last year following a co-runner-up finish in 2018 and a T-4 in 2017. He rebounded from a missed cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open to tie for 14th last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s one of the best in the elite field in SG: Around the Green.

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Genesis Invitational – Longshots

Jan 16, 2020; La Quinta, California, USA; Francesco Molinari (R) and caddie Mark Fulcher look on from the fourth tee box during the first round of The American Express golf tournament at La Quinta Country Club. (Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

Jason Kokrak (+10000)

Though he lacks the winning pedigree of many of those in the field, Kokrak has done well at Riviera. He has made the cut each of the last five years at this event and was a co-runner-up in 2016. He ranks sixth in the field in total strokes gained over that those five appearances.

Francesco Molinari (+12500)

Yes, this is the same Francesco Molinari as the 2018 Open Champion. He enters the week ranked 24th by the OWGR, but he was inside the top 10 as recently as September. He’s coming off missed cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open and The American Express, but these odds are laughable for one of the best iron players in the world.

Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

[jwplayer Mr8Fu9mp]

The PGA Tour shifts back to the West Coast for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Dustin Johnson, ranked fifth by the Official World Golf Ranking, leads the field as he’ll tee it up on the mainland for the first time since August’s Tour Championship.

The key stats for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which will cycle through Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club, are:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Strokes Gained: Scrambling
  • Birdies Gained
  • Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards
  • Proximity from 125-150 Yards

My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 24 rounds on courses shorter than 7,200 yards.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Tier 1

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8 p.m. ET.

Dustin Johnson (+650)

Johnson returns to the USA following a runner-up finish at the European Tour’s Saudi International. He’s back in form following a lengthy injury layoff and a T-7 result at the 30-man Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii to open 2020. He’s a two-time winner of this event and leads the week’s stat model. He scores particularly well on the shorter courses and ranks second in birdies gained.

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Brandt Snedeker (+2200)

Snedeker, the 2015 champ, suffered a rare missed cut at least week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open following a T-3 at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. He’s one of the best in the field at putting on the difficult Poa Annua greens, and he’ll benefit from playing the shorter venue.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Tier 2

(Photo Credit: Mark Konezny – USA TODAY Sports)

Kevin Na (+6600)

Na has played this event just one of the last three years when he finished T-20 in 2018. He missed the cut last week to fall to 28th in the OWGR, but he remains a strong value play in a weaker field. He’s an expert scrambler, and his lack of distance will be mitigated here with none of the three courses topping 7,000 yards.

Kurt Kitayama (+6600)

Kitayama, ranked 68th in the world, will play his first PGA Tour event since the WGC-HSBC Champions in early November. The European Tour regular is coming off a T-6 at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. His last professional victory was last year’s Oman Open after he won twice in 2018.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Longshots

(Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

Matthew NeSmith (+12500)

NeSmith, 26, will make his debut at this event. He sat out last week’s tournament after a three-event stretch composed of a T-32 at the Sony Open, T-17 at The American Express and a T-30 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Brian Stuard (+17500)

Stuard ranks 10th by the week’s stat model. He has been strong on approach and around the greens. He’s also fourth in the field in three-putt avoidance on Poa Annua greens. He comes into the week ranked 145th in the world following a missed cut in Phoenix, but this event routinely produces longshot champs.

Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Waste Management Phoenix Open odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

The PGA Tour’s Waste Management Phoenix Open will bring us right up to kickoff of Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs Sunday evening at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. First, Rickie Fowler returns to TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, AZ to battle another loaded field led by world No. 3 Jon Rahm.

The key stats for the Waste Management Phoenix Open are:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Good Drives Gained
  • Strokes Gained: Scrambling

My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 24 rounds on courses featuring Bermuda Greens.

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Tier 1

(Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9 p.m. ET.

Jon Rahm (+600)

Rahm is the betting favorite at BetMGM, and for good reason. Not only is he the top-ranked golfer from the Official World Golf Ranking, but he’s coming off a runner-up finish to Marc Leishman at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. He hasn’t finished worse than 10th in his last five worldwide events.

Xander Schauffele (+1800)

Schauffele was one of the biggest disappointments of the week at Torrey Pines, as he missed the cut for the first time since The Northern Trust in August. He returns to TPC Scottsdale having tied for 10th last year (with Rahm). He also tied for 17th in 2018. Schauffele ranks ninth in the stat model, ranking in the top 10 of four-of-the-five key stats (Good Drives Gained).

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Tier 2

(Photo Credit: Rob Kinnan – USA TODAY Sports)

Byeong Hun An (+6600)

An is the leader of the stat model; the 49th-ranked golfer in the world ranks fourth in the field among those with at least five rounds played at TPC Scottsdale in total strokes gained per round, according to Data Golf. He’s still seeking a PGA Tour win, but he hasn’t finished worse than T-23 in three appearances at this event.

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Ryan Moore (+6600)

Moore missed the cut at this event each of the last two years. He enters this year’s tournament ranked eighth by the stat model, and he’s coming off a T-6 at The American Express. His ball-striking and play off the tee are well suited to this venue.

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Longshots

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

Rory Sabbatini (+10000)

Sabbatini slipped to 88th by the OWGR with last week’s missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. It snapped a streak of seven straight made cuts dating back to the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He’s second-best in the field in Bogey Avoidance, and he’ll be able to capitalize on the many scoring chances at TPC Scottsdale.

Adam Hadwin (+11000)

Hadwin has made the cut here each of last four years with a top finish of T-12 in 2017. The Canadian hasn’t participated in an event since finishing in a tie for 68th at The RSM Classic while attending to the birth of his first child. He has slipped to 52nd in the world in his time off and now has fresh motivation at a familiar venue.

Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Farmers Insurance Open odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

Tiger Woods‘ hunt for a record 83rd career PGA Tour victory is the story of the week heading into the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Tiger makes his 2020 debut in San Diego, Calif., at a course where he already has eight professional victories, as he tries to surpass Sam Snead. Below, we assess the field and make our PGA Tour betting picks for the Farmers Insurance Open.

The key stats for the Farmers Insurance Open are:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • Good Drives Gained
  • Proximity from 150-175 Yards
  • Sand Saves Gained

My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field on courses longer than 7,400 yards.

Farmers Insurance Open – Tier 1

(Photo Credit: Matt Roberts – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7 a.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+600)

McIlroy’s a heavy betting favorite in his first event of 2020. He won his second-last worldwide event of 2019, the WGC-HSBC Champions in early November. It followed up his 2019 Tour Championship win en route to being named the PGA Tour Player of the Year.

He finished T-5 at this event last year, and enters this week ranked first in the field in both SG: T2G and SG: BS to lead the stat model. Four of the last five winners here came from inside the top 25 of the Official World Golf Ranking. McIlroy ranks second.

Tiger Woods (+1100)

Tiger has owned this course, winning this event seven times along with the 2008 US Open. He’ll be looking to tie Jack Nicklaus’ record of six Masters Tournament wins in April, but first, he can break the tie with Snead. He was T-20 here last year and T-23 in 2018.

Gary Woodland (+2200)

Woodland is discounted among those at the top of the board. The 2019 US Open champ enters the week rank 15th by the OWGR. This venue is much longer than Pebble Beach Golf Links, where he won last year, but it is a US Open course and distance has never been an issue for him. He picked up a T-9 here last year, five months before his major win.

Farmers Insurance Open – Tier 2

(Photo Credit: Matt Roberts – USA TODAY Sports)

Jason Day (+4000)

Day enters the week off of an injury, which forced him to pull out of the Presidents Cup. Before that, he missed the cut at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, and he hasn’t won since the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship. Two of his 12 career victories have come at Torrey Pines, though, and he managed to finish in a tie for fifth last year. He leads the field in Sand Saves Gained.

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Marc Leishman (+5000)

Leish is a bargain in an event where they’re hard to find due to the influx of talent this week. He’s ranked 28th by the OWGR but is only 19th by BetMGM‘s odds. He’s ranked 10th in the field in SG: BS, and he tied for eighth in 2018.

Farmers Insurance Open – Longshots

(Photo Credit: Joe Maiorana – USA TODAY Sports)

Keith Mitchell (+20000)

If you absolutely hate betting favorites, shoot your shot with Mitchell. One of the longest hitters on Tour, he’s more than up to the task of taming Torrey Pines. He’s third in the field in SG: BS and BoB Gained.

Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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The American Express odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the sports betting odds to win the 2020 American Express, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

The PGA Tour is in La Quinta, Calif. this week for The American Express. Tony Finau, Paul Casey, Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler highlight those in the field for the event hosted by Phil Mickelson. Below, we look at the best PGA Tour bets to win the 2020 American Express

The event is played on three courses and features a 54-hole cut. All three tracks were designed by Pete Dye and play to a par of 72. The key stats for the week are:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400 Yards
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Proximity: 100-125 Yards

Pay added attention to golfer success on Dye-designed courses with Bermuda greens.

The American Express – Tier 1

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3 a.m. ET.

Sungjae Im (+1800)

Im debuted at this event with a T-12 result last year. He enters the week 35th in the Official World Golf Ranking following last week’s T-21 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s still looking for his first PGA Tour victory and will be one of the more motivated golfers in a rather weak early-season field.

Kevin Kisner (+2800)

Kisner enters the week as the sixth-best golfer in the field by the OWGR measure, but he’s seventh by the odds at BetMGM, representing moderate value for the three-time PGA Tour champ. He made the cut here each of the previous three years, but with a top finish of T-25 (2017). Only four golfers who made the cut last week gained more strokes per round on approach than Kisner’s 0.85.

The American Express – Tier 2

(Photo Credit: Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports)

Chez Reavie (+6000)

Reavie’s coming off a missed cut last week in Hawaii, but he made the weekend each of the last four years in La Quinta. His best finish was a T-12 in 2017. The 37th-ranked golfer in the world ranks third in the field in Opportunities Gained on Pete Dye courses with Bermuda greens.

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Bud Cauley (+6600)

Cauley leads this week’s field with 2.01 strokes gained per round over seven rounds played on the Stadium Course in La Quinta, according to Data Golf. He missed the cut last week in his first event since a T-9 finish at the Houston Open. He was T-3 here in 2017 with T-14 finishes in 2016 and 2018 before missing the weekend last year.

The American Express – Longshots

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

Cameron Davis (+10000)

Davis finished T-9 at 7-under par in Hawaii last week. It was a Saturday round of 71 which was the difference for the 36-hole co-leader. He averaged 0.85 strokes gained per round on approach, but it was his 2.00 SG per round tee-to-green which had him contending. Davis finished T-28 here a year ago.

Doc Redman (+12500)

Redman’s worth a roll of the dice as our deepest shot for the week with a $10 bet returning a profit of $1,250 with a tournament win. He missed the cut last week for his third MC in nine events to begin the 2019-20 PGA Tour season, but his runner-up finish at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic was in a much stronger field than the one slated to tee off this week.

Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Sony Open odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

This week’s Sony Open in Hawaii sees the PGA Tour’s first full-field event since the RSM Classic in late November. The 7,044-yard, par-70 Waialae Country Club hosts the tournament yet again in Honolulu, Hawaii.

The key stats for this week are:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Good Drives Gained
  • Eagles Gained
  • Strokes Gained: Par 4s

My model at Fantasy National is set to the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field played on par-70 courses under 7,200 yards in length and featuring Bermuda grass greens.

Sony Open – Tier 1

(Photo Credit: Adam Hagy – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Webb Simpson (+1200)

Simpson leads my stat model and is the best in the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Par 4s. He’s third in the field with an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 12, and he shares the second-best odds with Patrick Reed. The five-time PGA Tour champ didn’t play here last year, but he was T-4 in 2018 and T-13 each of the three previous three years.

Marc Leishman (+4500)

Leishman tied for third here a year ago, and he hasn’t finished worse than T-47 in any of his last five tries. He ranks seventh in the field by the OWGR measure, but he’s 13th by the odds at BetMGM. He’s a good value pick following last year’s top finish and a solo third at the Safeway Open in September early in his 2019-20 campaign.

Sony Open – Tier 2

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

J.T. Poston (+5000)

Poston is coming off a T-11 finish in the 30-man field at last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions. He has missed just one cut in nine events since vaulting into the top 100 of the OWGR with his first career win at last season’s Wyndham Championship. He leads the field in Bogey Avoidance, and he ranks seventh in Good Drives Gained and fourth in SG: Par 4s.

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Rory Sabbatini (+8000)

Sabbatini is one of many in the field returning to competitive play for the first time since the RSM Classic. He’s coming off a 2019 calendar year in which he had six top 10s against just four missed cuts for his most successful season since his last PGA Tour win in 2011 at The Honda Classic. This is a similarly short venue, and he’s made the cut in four of his last five appearances with a T-6 result in 2015.

Sony Open – Longshots

(Photo Credit: John David Mercer – USA TODAY Sports)

Luke List (+15000)

List didn’t play this event last year following a missed cut in 2018, but he did finish T-13 in 2017. He enters the week ranked 145th in the world following three missed cuts to start his 2019-20 season, but he did have two runners-up last year. He also finished second at the 2018 Honda Classic amid a stronger field.

Mackenzie Hughes (+25000)

Hughes isn’t much of a course fit (49th in Eagles Gained and 57th in SG: Approach), but this number is far too high for a former PGA Tour champ. A $1 sprinkle at these odds returns a profit of $250.

Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Sentry Tournament of Champions odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

The 2020 portion of the 2019-20 PGA Tour schedule kicks off this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. A field of thirty-four features five of the top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking.

The key stats best suited to the 7,518-yard, par-73 venue are:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Sand Saves Gained
  • Good Drives Gained
  • Proximity 175-200 Yards

My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds played on courses with Bermuda greens.

Sentry Tournament of Champions – Tier 1

Photo Credit: Adam Hagy – USA TODAY Sports

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:20 p.m. ET.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400)

Cantlay is the fourth-best golfer in attendance by the OWGR measure. His only 2019 win came at the Memorial Tournament, but he preceded it by back-to-back T-3 results and followed it up late in the year with runner-up finishes at the BMW Championship and Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He has the most appealing odds of the top golfers in the elite field with a $10 bet returning a profit of $140.

Collin Morikawa (+2200)

Morikawa offers a better return than Cantlay. A rookie in 2019, his first career win came at the Barracuda Championship. He enters the week ranked 65th by the OWGR and most recently finished T-5 at the Japan Tour’s Dunlop Phoenix. He has a great approach game and excels from our key proximity distance this week.

Sentry Tournament of Champions – Tier 2

Photo Credit: Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports

Corey Conners (+2800)

Conners won’t get the full advantage of his driver this week at a venue with wide, rolling fairways allowing all in attendance to bomb it off the tee, but he will get something of a reprieve from his usual struggles on the greens. Each of the last five TOC champions finished at or below 21-under par, and Conners certainly has the ability to go that low.

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Matt Kuchar (+2800)

Much of Kuchar’s career success has come early in the calendar year. The 24th-ranked golfer in the world won twice last season, at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and the Sony Open in Hawaii. He was also the runner-up at both the RBC Heritage and WGC-Match Play. He ranks second to Conners by my stat model.

Sentry Tournament of Champions – Longshots

Photo Credit: Thomas J. Russo – USA TODAY Sports

Joaquin Niemann (+3000)

Niemann is coming off a Presidents Cup loss as a member of the International team. He gained entry to this event with his first career victory at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier to kick off the 2019-20 PGA Tour campaign, and has been one of the most active golfers early in the season. His strong approach game gives him an advantage on the expansive greens.

Keith Mitchell (+4000)

Mitchell is our longest dart throw at a tournament without a lot of betting value due to the small field of elites. He also earned his first career victory in 2019 at The Honda Classic in early March. He held off World No. 1 Brooks Koepka on Sunday, and showed he can compete in strong fields.

Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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2020 PGA Tour major odds: Patrick Reed looking to silence critics

Analyzing Patrick Reed’s chances and betting odds of winning another major championship during the 2020 PGA Tour season.

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Will Patrick Reed win a PGA Tour major championship in 2020? Based off BetMGM‘s golf betting odds, I analyze Captain America’s best opportunities to win along with some of the best potential golf betting lines to cash in on Reed’s play this year. This piece is part of a SportsbookWire series, which will look at the PGA Tour’s biggest names and their chances of winning a major championship in 2020.

Patrick Reed’s 2019 PGA Tour Highlights

  • T-5 Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • Won The Northern Trust
  • T-4 BMW PGA Championship
  • 3rd Hero World Challenge

PGA Tour odds to win a major in 2020

Name Official World Golf Ranking Odds Last PGA Tour win (Solo) Last major
Brooks Koepka 1 +200 July 2019 2019 PGA Championship
Rory McIlroy 2 +250 Nov. 2019 2014 PGA Championship
Jon Rahm 3 +350 Jan. 2018 NA
Justin Thomas 4 +450 Oct. 2019 2017 PGA Championship
Dustin Johnson 5 +200 Feb. 2019 2016 US Open
Tiger Woods 6 +400 Oct. 2019 2019 Masters
Patrick Cantlay 7 +500 June 2019 NA
Justin Rose 8 +400 Jan. 2019 2013 US Open
Xander Schauffele 9 +500 Jan. 2019 NA
Tommy Fleetwood 10 +600 NA NA
Patrick Reed 12 +1100 Aug. 2019 2018 Masters

Reed’s odds are appealing as a recent major champion. He has the same odds as Matt Kuchar and is priced just below the likes of Paul Casey and Louis Oosthuizen. He has been in the mix on Sunday at all four of the majors in recent years, and is a nice betting play at better than 10-to-1 odds to claim his second career major championship in 2020.

Looking to place a bet on Patrick Reed to win a major in 2020? Get some action on it at BetMGM.  Sign up and bet at BetMGM now!

Where is Patrick Reed’s best chance of winning a major in 2020?

Event 2020 Venue Best career result Odds
Masters Augusta National Won (2018) +5000
PGA Championship TPC Harding Park T-2 (2017) +6600
US Open Winged Foot 4th (2018 +6600
Open Championship Royal St. George’s 10th (2019) +5000

Reed followed up his 2018 Masters win with a T-36 last year. His 10th-place finish at The Open last year drops his odds in 2020, though he had previously missed the cut in two of five tries. Though he missed the cut at each of the last two PGA Championship’s following his co-runner-up finish in 2017, the odds at TPC Harding are enticing.

Will Patrick Reed win a major in 2020?

The price is right for Reed, who typically sees suppressed odds as a well-known name. He struggled at the recent Presidents Cup following controversy at the Hero World Challenge, but he has been well-fueled by added motivation over his career. He’s a good play at +1100 odds to win at least one of the four majors without needing to specify the exact location.

Top PGA Tour bets to win a major in 2020

Get some PGA Tour betting action by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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2020 PGA Tour major odds: Phil Mickelson priced among the longshots

Analyzing Phil Mickelson’s chances and betting odds of winning another major championship during the 2020 PGA Tour season.

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Will Phil Mickelson win a PGA Tour major championship in 2020? Based off BetMGM‘s golf betting odds, I analyze Mickelson’s best opportunities to win along with some of the best potential golf betting lines to cash in on Phil’s play this year.

This piece is part of a SportsbookWire series, which will look at the PGA Tour‘s biggest names and their chances of winning a major championship in 2020.

Phil Mickelson’s 2019 PGA Tour Highlights

  • T-2 Desert Classic
  • Won AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

PGA Tour odds to win a major in 2020

Name Official World Golf Ranking Odds Last PGA Tour win (Solo) Last major
Brooks Koepka 1 +200 July 2019 2019 PGA Championship
Rory McIlroy 2 +250 Nov. 2019 2014 PGA Championship
Jon Rahm 3 +350 Jan. 2018 NA
Justin Thomas 4 +450 Oct. 2019 2017 PGA Championship
Dustin Johnson 5 +200 Feb. 2019 2016 US Open
Tiger Woods 6 +400 Oct. 2019 2019 Masters
Patrick Cantlay 7 +500 June 2019 NA
Justin Rose 8 +400 Jan. 2019 2013 US Open
Xander Schauffele 9 +500 Jan. 2019 NA
Tommy Fleetwood 10 +600 NA NA
Phil Mickelson 65 +2000 Feb. 2019 2013 Open Championship

Heading into his seventh year since his last major title, Mickelson has the same odds as Chez Reavie, Ian Poulter and Matt Wallace to win one in 2020. He’ll turn 50 years old in mid-June, and he faded down the stretch in 2019, after claiming career victory No. 44 at Pebble Beach.

Looking to place a bet on Phil Mickelson to win a major in 2020? Get some action on it at BetMGM.  Sign up and bet at BetMGM now!

Where is Phil Mickelson’s best chance of winning a major in 2020?

Event 2020 Venue Best career result Odds
Masters Augusta National Won (2004, 2006, 2010) +4000
PGA Championship TPC Harding Park Won 2005 +6600
US Open Winged Foot 2nd/T-2 (1999, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2013) +6600
Open Championship Royal St. George’s Won (2013) +10000

Mickelson’s best odds unsurprisingly come at Augusta National, where he has three of his five career major victories. His worst odds come at Royal St. George’s, where he tied for second in the 2011 Open Championship.

Will Phil Mickelson win a major in 2020?

Lefty’s best major result last season was a T-18 finish at Augusta in April. He missed the cut at The Open and has now missed the weekend in four of his last 10 major appearances. He’s worth a small-unit wager as a longshot at The Open based on his past success at the venue, but he should be avoided everywhere else with less appealing odds.

Top PGA Tour bets to win a major in 2020

Get some PGA Tour betting action by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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