The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The green flag drops Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FOX. Below, we analyze the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 5 at 6:05 p.m. ET.
Penske Racing’s Brad Keselowski (+800) is the defending winner of this race, and he picked up checkers last season after starting from the 19th position.
- The past three winners of the NASCAR Cup Series race in Atlanta have been in a Ford, with the three previous winners in a Chevrolet. A Toyota hasn’t been to Victory Lane in Atlanta since the AdvoCare 500 in 2013 when Kyle Busch (+650) raced to the win.
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott (+600) has drawn the pole position, as starting spots 1-12 were a random draw from charter teams in those positions in team owner points.
- The pole sitter hasn’t won in Atlanta in 18 Cup races dating back to Kasey Kahne (now retired) when he won the Golden Corral 500 in his Dodge March 20, 2006.
- Four of the past six winners in Atlanta have started in position No. 10 or lower in the starting grid.
- Stewart-Haas Racing driver Kevin Harvick (+450) leads all active drivers with 1,197 laps led in Atlanta. The next closest competitor is Ganassi’s Kurt Busch (+1600) with 802.
Who is going to win the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500?
While a pole sitter hasn’t hoisted the trophy in Atlanta since 2006, ELLIOTT (+600) is always a good choice. He has been running very consistently since the restart of the season and has been in contention for every race since the return.
Elliott leads all active drivers with a 10.5 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in four starts in Atlanta, posting a top-5 run and three top-10 finishes. He has never ended up lower than 19th at the track.
KURT BUSCH (+1600) has three wins under his belt in Atlanta, while turning in seven top-5 showings and 14 top-10 runs in 28 career starts. Plus, he has a strong 14.9 AFP along with those 802 laps led. Father Time isn’t catching up with the veteran – he turns 42 in August – especially as far as Atlanta in concerned, as he leads all drivers with a 6.9 AFP across the past 10 starts at the track. That includes finishes of fourth, seventh, eighth and third over the past four runs.
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KESELOWSKI (+800) is running with a lot of confidence, and is the defending champ of this race. He also won last week at Bristol for his second victory in the past three races. And remember, Ford has been to Victory Lane in each of the past three Atlanta runs, so …
Atlanta Motor Speedway prop bets
KURT BUSCH (-125) is almost a near certainty to finish INSIDE THE TOP 10, so play that. In addition, take the elder BUSCH (-115) over Jimmie Johnson in a head-to-head, best finishing position prop.
Another strong head-to-head play is ARIC ALMIROLA (-115) over Matt DiBenedetto. Almirola hasn’t exactly lit the track afire, but DiBenedetto just has never been able to figure the place out. In four Cup starts, DiBenedetto is 29th, 28th, 31st and 26th.
Atlanta Motor Speedway long-shot bets
Ol’ wily veteran MATT KENSETH (+6000) of Ganassi Racing is worth a roll of the dice here. He has never won in 29 tries in Atlanta, but has turned in 11 top 5s, 17 top 10s and he has led 363 laps in his career. He has an 11.93 AFP, best among all active drivers with at least five starts at the venerable, bumpy track.
If you’re looking for a REAL long shot to bet on, try DANIEL SUAREZ (+50000). He has three Cup starts under his belt in Atlanta, finishing 21st in his debut in 2017, 15th in 2018 and 10th in 2019. Of course, he is now in a more inferior machine, racing for Gaunt Brothers Racing in the No. 96 Toyota rather than his previous years with JGR and one season with SHR, thus the extremely long odds. But hey, it’s worth a $1 bet.
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