Tag: futures

NFL Week 6 betting recap: There is a ton of value in the NFC field (if you believe in any of them)

Can the Vikings, 49ers or Giants come out of the NFC?

After Week 6, the Buffalo Bills are still regarded as the best team in the NFL, but it’s clear they aren’t the only power in the AFC.

Their game against the Kansas City Chiefs went right down to the wire again. And we still think of the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens as pretty good too, even if flawed. The Cincinnati Bengals are also hanging around.

In the NFC, the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles are the unquestioned favorites after knocking off the Dallas Cowboys. After them, there’s just a bunch of question marks.

My buddy Christian D’Andrea wrote about the “old” problem the NFC has at quarterback. That points right to three teams who were thought to be the conference’s best going into the season, the Bucs, Packers and Rams. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford have looked anything but elite — Brady and Rodgers suffered terrible upsets Sunday — and that’s opening the door for some dark-horse contenders to come out of the NFC.

The Eagles obviously lead the pack at +200 odds at Tipico Sportsbook, but there’s still outstanding value on teams like the Vikings (+700), 49ers (+750), Cowboys (+1000) and Giants (+2000). That is if you believe in any of them.

Here are a few more takeaways from Week 6.

Best bets on all 30 NBA teams to make or miss the 2023 playoffs

Picks for all 30 teams to either make or miss the playoffs.

It’s funny to think there may be more parity in the NBA this year when the reigning champion is the same team that has won four of the last eight titles. But the league has never felt more wide open than it has the last few seasons, and that should remain the case in 2022-23.

There might be five teams in each conference that you can confidently say will make the playoffs. After that there’s a jumble of about five or six teams per conference that will scrap for the final three spots.

For The Win sorted through all the mess to pick who will make and miss the playoffs (after the play-in tournament). Odds are from BetMGM.

Celtics are still NBA title favorites after Ime Udoka’s suspension, but should they be?

Getting to the Finals is hard enough under normal circumstances.

Somehow, the Boston Celtics remain the betting favorites to win the 2023 NBA title. Even after news that head coach Ime Udoka is being suspended for the entire season, Boston’s odds saw minimal movement at several sportsbooks.

The Celtics are still the +500 favorites at BetMGM, and Tipico Sportsbook only dropped them from +500 to +600 — tied for the top spot with the Golden State Warriors.

No doubt, Boston’s roster remains as talented as it was before Udoka’s suspension, and even more so than it was during the team’s run to the 2022 Finals. But if Udoka was credited for implementing the defensive mindset that allowed Boston to get over the hump last season, wouldn’t his absence have the reverse impact?

It’s easy to say they know what it takes now, but do they? The Celtics didn’t actually finish the job. And now, they’ll be attempting to do it without the person who was supposed to hold everyone accountable.

2022-23 NBA Title Odds (BetMGM)

Reaching the Finals in consecutive seasons is hard to do as it is. Add in the cloud of Udoka’s alleged actions hanging over the team, the mystery of it all and the potential for more distractions down the line, and I’d recommend steering clear of Boston’s odds.

The NBA is too talented to assume a rookie coach can just step in and push the right buttons to get a first-time finalist back to the top (even if Udoka got them there his rookie season as a coach). Even if Joe Mazzulla — now the league’s youngest head coach at 34 — can pull it off, the team Boston faces in the Finals will be a monster. The Western Conference has no fewer than four legitimate title contenders. The East won’t be a cakewalk either with teams like the Milwaukee Bucks (+650), Brooklyn Nets (+700) and Philadelphia 76ers (+1400) still boasting major star power.

Robert Williams’ health is also a concern. He’s out at least eight to 12 weeks after undergoing surgery on his left knee for the second time this year.

None of this is to suggest Boston won’t be in the mix too. As long as Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Al Horford are all healthy, the Celtics will be formidable. And the addition of Malcolm Brogdon in the offseason adds more ball-handling and shooting. But I wouldn’t be so quick to think of Udoka’s suspension as a non-factor when it comes to winning a title.

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A sportsbook is declaring Russell Wilson ‘cooked’ after just two games and giving his MVP bettors free money

It’s only Week 2.

Sportsbooks give money away. It’s not a secret. We know this to be a key part of their businesses model: free bets to attract new customers.

However, one sportsbook is taking that tactic to a new level this NFL season, giving money back to existing customers for bets that haven’t even settled.

One week after determining the Dallas Cowboys were done just one game into the season and paying out win total under bettors, PointsBet Sportsbook is declaring Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign cooked. And apparently, the book feels bad for people who bet on Wilson to win, because it’s giving them all free bets — whether they placed the bet at PointsBet or not!

OK, so maybe there’s a business reason for giving these free bets away. It could end up being worth whatever losses the book takes depending on how many customers it can poach away from other sportsbooks. And I’m guessing if there was a large enough bet out there on either scenario, PointsBet would just let it ride.

But make no mistake, there’s still a little risk in both situations. The Cowboys could still clinch their over at 10.5 games — they just upended the Bengals on Sunday in their first game without Dak Prescott. And it’s possible Wilson figures it out in Denver too. His numbers aren’t even that bad as they are; 559 yards, two touchdowns and one interception through two games with 15 more to really get going. His +3000 odds to win at Tipico are tied for 11th shortest.

If those scenarios were to happen, however unlikely, PointsBet is going to take double losses, having paid people who would’ve loss in the Cowboys case, or giving extra money to people who won in Wilson’s case — especially if the free bets result in more winning. But hey, it’s not a bad way to build customer loyalty in a very competitive field. More free money, please.

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Chargers proved against Chiefs their potential is limitless, but only if they stay out of their own way

The Chargers should have won Thursday. But they’re the Chargers.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Los Angeles Chargers can be a legitimate threat in the AFC if they could simply get out of their own way.

No matter the players on the team, it’s like a perpetual state of the Chargers to be competitive with every team in the league but none more than themselves. One thing that’s for certain, and two for sure, at some point the Chargers will Charger.

Thursday night’s showdown with the rival Kansas City Chiefs was just the latest example of this, as the Chargers allowed 20 unanswered points in the second half — including a fourth-quarter pick-six on the goal-line — to blow a 10-point lead and lose another game that felt like they should’ve won.

AFC Title Odds (via BetMGM)

Justin Herbert’s interception only compounded self-inflicted mistakes by the defense, which had four interceptions wiped out due to either drops or penalties. And head coach Brandon Staley, who was uncharacteristically conservative on fourth downs.

It’s hard to find a franchise that has worse luck in big moments. And the sad part is a few co-workers and I predicted they would find a way to screw it up. Even sadder, I still find myself optimistic about what this team can accomplish this year.

If the Chargers can play the Chiefs that well, without top receiver Keenan Allen, I’m certain they can beat almost anybody. They still clinched the backdoor cover on a late drive, and I’m willing to bet they’ll win outright the next time these teams meet — as long as they stay (and get) healthy.

Their current odds at Tipico to win the AFC West are a steal at +210, compared to the Chiefs at -110. Their AFC odds are a distant third at +750. This team is good enough to do both, so long as it stays out of its own way. The history of the Chargers says they can’t, but just think about the possibilities if they do.

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Stetson Bennett, Anthony Richardson rocket up Heisman board after strong openers (but Bryce Young is the new favorite)

Bryce Young is looking to make it two years in a row, but the early competition is giving him quite a challenge.

Each week this college football season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2022 Heisman Trophy race and break down the contenders. Check back each Monday as the best college football players in the country jockey for position with both oddsmakers and bettors. Preseason odds can be found here.  

Week 1 is in the books and already we’ve seen some wild movement across the board. Most notably, Georgia’s Stetson Bennett went from a fringe play (+10000) to a near-favorite (+2000), while Florida’s redshirt sophomore QB Anthony Richardson played his way from 13th-best odds before the season (+4000) to tied for third-best (+2000).

Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, meanwhile, is no longer alone at the top. Alabama’s Bryce Young is now tied with the Buckeyes’ QB at +300 as the Crimson Tide star looks to become the first repeat Heisman Trophy winner since Archie Griffin in 1974-75.

Let’s get into it.

All odds via Tipico

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2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year best bets: Is this really Christian McCaffrey’s award to lose?

It’s hard to see how a healthy and productive McCaffrey doesn’t win, but that’s still a big ask.

As the 2022 NFL season nears the kickoff of Week 1, the BetFTW crew is offering up our best outright bets for the new year. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the top awards handed out at the end of each campaign. We previously covered MVP and Coach of the Year. Let’s talk about who will be crowned the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year.

When it comes to 2022 Comeback Player of the Year, you’re really just betting on Christian McCaffrey against the field. If the dynamic playmaker can stay healthy (and productive) in Carolina this season, it’s his award to lose. If he can’t…a few other contenders could easily rip it away.

All odds via Tipico Sportsbook.

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Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are unsurprisingly thrilled about College Football Playoff expansion

No one wins more with College Football Playoff expansion than sportsbooks.

If there’s one group of people who won’t see any issue with the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2026 (or potentially earlier), it’s those who run sportsbooks.

Extending the schedule of one of the most popular sports in the United States? And putting more games in primetime for a national audience? Yeah, that’ll have oddsmakers cheering.

That all completely makes sense—though it remains to be seen if star players on lower-seeded teams sit out playoff games to preserve their draft stock rather than risk injury in four additional contests.

And while pricing out odds for outright winners may be a little more difficult in the short term, there’s plenty for bettors to like about Friday’s announcement. Namely, more options to chose from — which means more potential edges to find.

Potential futures hitting the market will likely include:

  • How many teams from ‘X’ conference make the playoff
  • Conference with the College Football Playoff winner
  • Schools to host a playoff game

It also helps sportsbooks that many of college football’s powerhouses are located in states where legal sports wagering already exists. That includes Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Indiana and Oregon. California may very well be the next state to legalize betting this November.

Gone will be the days bettors could feel confident in a solid return for blindly putting down futures bets on Alabama and Ohio State. Instead the value may shift to smaller schools who have an easier path to the postseason (meaning we might not see a run like Cincinnati in 2021 again anytime soon).

More offerings are coming, and while more options tend to benefit consumers, there’s no question the payoff for sportsbooks will outweigh all of it.

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Dameon Pierce’s stock is soaring after the Texans cut Marlon Mack, here’s why you should buy

The Dameon Pierce hype train is full steam ahead.

It was pretty clear early this preseason just how much the Houston Texans liked tailback Dameon Pierce. Word out of training camp spread quickly about the rookie’s ability on the rebuilding club.

But in a position group crowded by veterans Marlon Mack, Royce Freeman and Rex Burkhead, it seemed like Pierce had his work cut out for him to make an impact right off the bat.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the fourth-round pick was able to do just that. On Tuesday the Texans cut Mack, essentially making Pierce the team’s RB1.

This had an immediate impact for fantasy managers and bettors alike.

Already the hype around Pierce was palpable.

FantasyPros tracked his averaged draft position across Yahoo and ESPN leagues at No. 89—with Pierce going as high as No. 40 in some drafts—despite being the No. 36 ranked tailback. Tuesday’s roster cuts now have many fantasy analysts projecting Pierce as a top-20 running back this season. For leagues that have already drafted, this is tremendous news for his managers. For those who are waiting to draft until this weekend, the top sleeper on the board is no longer a hidden secret. You can expect Pierce will be on the mind of every manager—especially in dynasty leagues.

Pierce was also considered a sleeper pick for Rookie of the Year, where he has consensus +1148 odds. That put him behind Kenny Pickett (+789), Breece Hall (+824), Chris Olave (+1000), George Pickens (+1000), Drake London (+1030) and Skyy Moore (+1100). Some books have already started to move lines in Pierce’s favor.

The reality of the situation is this: Pierce is playing in a rather weak AFC South and has a pretty established offensive line blocking ahead of him. While no one expects the Texans to blow out many teams this year—limiting how often they’ll let Pierce kill the clock—Houston certainly doesn’t have the most daunting schedule ahead.

Tankathon ranks the Texans’ schedule at No. 15 overall this year. They’ll get to face the Jacksonville Jaguars (twice), Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New York Giants in 2022. And while looking at last year’s team stats isn’t the best predictor of future outcomes, it is notable that the Bears, Giants and Raiders all ranked among the bottom half of the league’s rush defenses in 2021.

Pierce has tons of upside this season. Houston is ready to see how much it can get out him.

7 Bold bets for the 2022 NFL Season (including the Panthers in the playoffs!)

A long-shot MVP and an 0-17 season are just the beginning

The funny thing about the NFL offseason is how we spend months trying to put together narratives—only to watch them all get blown up after Weeks 1 or 2.

No matter how much you convince yourself you know how things will play out, the NFL loves to prove everyone wrong.

So maybe you’ll consider these seven bets listed below as longshots, but they’re on this list for a reason. We absolutely love them. It’s not just that they have a chance to return a huge profit, but they’re also incredibly fun to root for in the process.

Best of luck to all who tail.

All odds via Tipico Sportsbook

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