A dozen rules fantasy footballers must follow for consistent success.
Our annual “draft prep” series mostly caters to novice players, but every once in a while a veteran player requires a refresher on basics we may take for granted.
These rules are in no particular order, and they apply to all levels of experience among fantasy owners. Just as important as the “what you should do” to create a winner in fantasy drafting, avoiding simple pitfalls is a must.
1) Living in the past: Assuming successes and failures from last year automatically will carry over to this year’s results is a quick trip to Loserville. Each year is brand new and requires a reset of the old memory bank.
2) Stay sober: While it may seem silly, don’t let one draft of hard boozing affect an entire season of fantasy football. Party it up after the draft and celebrate your soon-to-be championship roster.
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3) No one likes a homer: Well, except for that Homer. Heavily drafting players from your favorite team tends to lead to an entire season of hangover-filled mornings. This also includes taking a specific player over a better option just because that player is on your favorite team. Be objective.
4) Draft by the rules: Not knowing your league’s scoring structure, lineup composition, and/or bylaws generally results in utter failure. At a minimum, it translates into lost points.
5) Stretch it out: Flexibility in fantasy drafts is essential. Gamers with a rigid strategy miss out on key value due to their inability to zig when others are zagging.
6) No F.O.M.O.: All too often owners will see or sense a miniature run at a position and overreact out of the fear of missing out. Always having a sound backup plan alleviates concern in this area.
7) Mocking mock drafters: “I don’t need preparation!” declares the eventual last-place owner on draft day. Everyone needs practice. Look back at all of the things in life that required some repetitions before you improved. Don’t take my word for it … ask your spouse.
8) Bye week blues: This cuts both ways — getting caught up in not paying attention to bye weeks and outright passing on talent because it would create multiple players at the position on bye. Later in the year, bye weeks are easier — not harder — to overcome due to months of roster manipulation.
9) Leaving money on the table: Specifically for those who participate in auctions, leaving any amount of money on the table is inexcusable. Spend it all, even if you have to pay up at the end of the auction on an inconsequential player.
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10) Peer pressure: Let’s face it, even seasoned veterans of fantasy don’t enjoy being ridiculed by 11 mates after making a questionable pick. There’s a major difference between being laughed at for taking a kicker in Round 1 and reaching a round or two for a sleeper at a skilled position.
11) ADP obsession: Time after time, owners get hung up on what the average draft placement suggests. It is merely a guideline, and anytime a service offering ADP compiles the data, it is impossible to weed out all variations and nuance. Use it for nothing more than a ballpark idea of when positional trends typically begin.
12) Drafting to trade: For some unknown reason, every year I have gamers asking me about which players to target solely for trading purposes. Drafting players for a potential trade bargaining piece down the line is unwise. Way too much can (and usually does) go wrong in this scenario.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs should be a first-round lock in fantasy drafts this season
It may seem a bit early, but fantasy football drafts are just around the corner. In fact, you may have already participated in one or two so far this year. If so, you know that the first four picks of any draft are likely going to contain the following players in some order:
Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
Saquon Barkley (Giants)
Alvin Kamara (Saints)
Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys
After those four picks, it gets a little dicey. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Kenyan Drake has the highest average draft position after the “big four.” Drake had a strong end of the season with the Cardinals, but he has never had more than 650 rushing yards in a season and is already 26-years old.
Many who aren’t sold on Drake may turn their attention to a wide receiver instead, such as Michael Thomas or DeAndre Hopkins. However, the right pick at 1.05 in your fantasy drafts could very well be Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Jacobs’ average draft position has skyrocketed over the last few months as he is now going ahead of the likes of Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. However, you can make a strong case that he should go even higher in your drafts.
First and foremost, Jacobs is locked into a significant role with the Raiders. During his rookie season, Jacobs averaged over 20 touches per game despite not being used much in the passing game. He is the focal part of the Raiders’ offense and that won’t be changing anytime soon.
Jacobs was also highly efficient with his touches, averaging over 100 total yards per game as a rookie. That is even more impressive when you consider that he dealt with a severe shoulder injury that limited him for most of the season. Assuming he is 100 percent healthy, there is no reason that he can’t match his 2019 yarage total.
Finally, the Raiders have improved the talent around him, which should open up running lanes. If players like Henry Ruggs III and Tyrell Williams can stretch the field at all, that should back up the safeties, giving more room for Jacobs to run.
Given the safety of Jacobs’ workload and talent level, he should be a lock to be a first-round pick in your fantasy drafts, especially in non-PPR leagues. And if Jacobs can be more involved in the passing game this season, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he becomes the No. 1 back in fantasy football. Consider drafting Jacobs anytime after McCaffrey, Kamara, Barkley and Elliott are off the board.
See why Matt Bowen of ESPN believes Tom Brady could be in for a big year in fantasy football.
Tom Brady had a down year last season by his standards, throwing for just 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions to go along with 4,057 passing yards. The Patriots offense missed the presence of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who came out of retirement this offseason after the Bucs pulled off a trade for the future Hall of Famer.
With Gronk and Brady joining an offense that finished tied for third in scoring last season, big things are expected out of Tampa Bay this season. Matt Bowen of ESPN believes Brady will thrive in this new offense, which is why he named the six-time Super Bowl champion as one of his favorite quarterback targets for fantasy football.
Here’s part of Bowen’s reasoning:
“Last season, the Bucs’ wide receivers averaged 22.5% more yards after the catch than the Patriots. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans? Playmakers. Look for more play-action, seams and in-breakers there. Add that to the tight end route tree with Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard, as well as the running back targets that have always been a critical part of Brady’s game. Plus, let’s not forget about Brady’s ability to master red zone situations — especially with Gronkowski in the mix. Over his past three seasons with Gronkowski on the roster (2016-18), Brady has thrown 64 red zone touchdown passes, with just two red zone interceptions… Last season’s No. 12 quarterback in fantasy scoring, I believe Brady has top-10 upside in an offense that is set up to move the ball through the air.”
Many people are expecting Brady to have a big year, despite the fact that he’ll be 43 years old when the season rolls around. Bruce Arians likes to run a pass-happy offense, but we will likely see some Brady influence in this offensive system, too. It should make for an exciting year of Bucs football.
Rundown of each team’s running back situation and training camp needs
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL running back has declined as a rusher for the last decade and 2019 saw one of the lowest totals for rushing attempts (in a 32-team league). But there is no denying the impact a stud running back has on a fantasy team with consistently high fantasy points. Add in their increases as a receiver and the position will always dominate the first round of fantasy drafts every year.
Running Back Totals by Year
There was a minor uptick last year from the historically low number of carries in 2018 but the touchdowns remained higher than most years. It says running backs may not be as involved in moving the ball down the field as they once were, but at least they still get those goal-line carries.
2018 was a high-water mark for running backs as receivers but the trend is clear for the last six seasons. The bigger problem for fantasy team owners is that fewer teams employ a 300-carry running back anymore and the pie is divided among more players.
Top Ten Running Back Totals by Year
The top ten running backs from last season held their own and while they dipped slightly in scoring, at least there were more rushing yards from the group. These last three seasons clearly show the change from 2012 when the top ten backs averaged 297 carries and only 38 catches on the season while 2019 saw the same grouping with only 246 carries and yet 63 catches.
The team listings below show the top two fantasy running backs of 2019 for that team, along with their stats.
Arizona Cardinals
Kenyan Drake – Rush: 123-643-8, Receive: 28-171-0
David Johnson – Rush: 94-345-2, Receive: 36-370-4
There were two notables being carried forward from last year. First, Kenyan Drake finally broke out after spending three and a half years in Miami. He was sent to the Cardinals where he finished the year on a tear with three 100-yard rushing efforts. Granted – he was far less effective against good defenses, but at least he tore up the Browns and Seahawks. He replaced David Johnson as the starter and sent him away to Houston (AKA The Deal of the Century).
Secondly, these Cardinals do not run the ball that much under HC Kliff Kingsbury. They were dead last with only 280 total carries. Their 77 completions to the position ranked No. 15 so there no heavy-use back here so far. Chase Edmonds is the primary backup but was only allowed a handful of carries per game if the starter was healthy.
The Cardinals had the easiest rushing schedule in 2019 of any NFL team. Not to worry, they are still No. 3 this year. Drake was new to the team but his results varied significantly week to week.
Training Camp Needs: Second-year for the offense means no more installation and more focus on execution. Drake gets his first camp as the starter and there is no real competition for him.
Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman – Rush: 184-656-2, Receive: 59-410-4
Brian Hill – Rush: 78-323-2, Receive: 10-69-1
This will be a camp worth watching. Last year, Teven Coleman left but Devonta Freeman got even worse, only managed 184 carries with a 3.6 YPC and was released so that the entire league could ignore him.
The holdovers of Qadree Ollison, Brian Hill, and Ito Smith have done nothing to suggest that they are more than mediocre depth. But the Falcons brought in Todd Gurley as the new starter and that should change everything. Or nothing, all depending on which Gurley they got.
His chronic knee situation saw him with only 3.8 YPC and 857 rushing yards last year. He did score 14 touchdowns to salvage his fantasy value. Gurley was a very capable receiver as well but was down to only 31 receptions last season and a career-low 6.7 yards per catch. His 223 rushes also were his lowest ever.
Training Camp Needs: This is all about getting Gurley up to speed (whatever that is anymore) and able to stay on the field. Chances are that we won’t see a lot of him in preseason games, but it would be far more reassuring to hear that he looks good and fits in before pulling the trigger on him with a draft pick.
Baltimore Ravens
Mark Ingram II – Rush: 202-1018-10, Receive: 26-247-5
Gus Edwards – Rush: 133-711-2, Receive: 7-45-0
The Ravens ended with the most rushing yards – by a big margin – than any other team in NFL history last year but Lamar Jackson’s 1,206 yards was a major contributor. The running backs accounted for 393 carries and 1,954 rushing yards for the No. 7 and No. 3 ranked marks, respectively. There were only three backs that ran the ball – Mark Ingram (202), Gus Edwards (133), and Justice Hill (58).
A great offensive line helped as did a quarterback that prevented anyone from focusing on just the running backs as rushers.
Ingram remains the starter but the Ravens drafted J.K. Dobbins (2.23) to add to the mix. His contribution will come out of Edwards and Hill’s totals. There is room for the rookie to step up into a bigger role but he’ll have the challenge of much less time with the team than a normal rookie because of the COVID-19 situation. That likely means that Edwards will get more work earlier in the year.
Hill was a disappointment but he hits his second season and still has a chance to improve. This offense hasn’t produced more than one back with fantasy value, but Ingram has a history of missing a few games in most seasons.
Training Camp Needs: J.K. Dobbins should see plenty of work in the preseason to make up for his lack of team time before camp. He’s the one to watch. Ingram is signed through 2021 but the Ravens could get out of his contract next year for almost no cost if they want. Dobbins has a chance to do something special on this team, but it may take time.
Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary – Rush: 151-775-2, Receive: 29-194-2
Frank Gore – Rush: 166-599-2, Receive: 14-100-0
Not a lot of fantasy points from this backfield last year even though almost all production came from either Devin Singletary or Frank Gore. Only producing six total touchdowns was a major reason but all categories were below league averages. Gore is gone but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Singletary gets any major boost in carries or catches.
Gore’s workload went down as the season progressed and Singletary handled more carries over the final six weeks, but his catch totals went down over that period. And Singletary lost four fumbles over two games when he handled more than 15 rushes. He’s only 5-9 and 199 pounds and there is a concern that he might not hold up to a heavier load.
The Bills drafted Zack Moss (3.22) and he’s a much beefier 223 pounds on a 5-9 frame as well. T.J. Yeldon is still the No. 3 back with minimal use. 2020 will see how well Singletary holds up and also holds on to the ball.
Training Camp Needs: The rookie Moss is the one to watch. Singletary will be the primary back and could improve upon his 29 receptions last year as well. The success (or lack of it) by Moss will influence Singletary’s workload.
Not much to talk about here. McCaffrey was a fantasy league winner in 2019 and the Panthers added no one to limit his carries or catches. They have moved on to HC Matt Rhule fresh from running Baylor but that won’t impact McCaffrey’s role.
Installing a new offense is likely to rely just as heavily on McCaffrey as the best receiver on the team. They paid him $64M for the next four years – he’s safe to remain the focus of the offense.
Training Camp Needs: Keep McCaffrey healthy. That’s plenty enough.
The Bears are onto their third offensive coordinator in the last three years with Bill Lazor (ex-CIN OC) joining third-year head coach Matt Nagy. This is a backfield that has surprised most fantasy leaguers and not for positive reasons. The Bears parted ways with Jordan Howard and moved up to select David Montgomery (3.09) as the primary rusher. Tarik Cohen remains the third-down back.
The Bears had one of the best rushing schedules in the NFL last year but Montgomery was used inconsistently and often ineffectively. He ended with only 889 rushing yards on 242 carries and as a team recorded below-average marks in all rushing categories. Not only did the Bears only rush for six touchdowns, they only managed one over the final eight games.
There are no changes to personnel this year and once again, the Bears have one of the best rushing schedules in the league. A second season for Montgomery may see improvement, but there is yet another new offensive scheme to learn. A potential improvement to the passing game could in turn help the backfield.
Training Camp Needs: Learn the new offense. It would be very nice to hear that Montgomery looks “like he is getting it” but that may be hard to see in this unusual offseason and preseason. Most of the focus will be about the quarterbacks.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon – Rush: 278-1137-5, Receive: 35-287-3
Giovani Bernard – Rush: 53-167-0, Receive: 30-234-0
The Bengals head into their second season under HC Zac Taylor and the rebuilding year didn’t go so well. Joe Mixon had a very slow start to the season but finally caught fire in the final month or so when his fantasy owners had already fallen back in their league. But it was a plus to see him with three of his final four games gaining over 100 rushing yards.
Giovani Bernard hangs on as the third-down back but his stats have declined in each of the last four seasons and he never scored a touchdown in 2019. Mixon ends up with around three catches in most games, Bernard has lost all fantasy value in this offense.
Training Camp Needs: No changes in personnel, coaches, or scheme means shaking off the rust. Just stay healthy.
The same crew starts this year with Nick Chubb as the primary and Kareem Hunt as the third-down back. For Hunt, he’ll play a full season this time but he was used sparingly as a rusher and did more damage as a receiver. This backfield can support two fantasy starter though Chubb ended with four or five fewer rushes per game and his role as a receiver all but disappeared.
This is yet another offense to learn for the backfield with HC Kevin Stefanski importing the West Coast variant that he used as the offensive coordinator with the Vikings. The backfield gets to use both backs for the full season and that will help diversify their attack, even if it comes at the expense of what Chubb could be.
Training Camp Needs: Installing a new offense usually favors the safer ground game and the Browns were already one of the better rushing teams from 2019.
If any player is unlikely to see much change, it would be Ezekiel Elliott. While new HC Mike McCarthy will certainly take an interest in the offense, OC Kellen Moore was retained and enters his second season. Elliott faces one of the better rushing schedules just to ensure that he’ll be productive again.
Elliott carried 301 times last year, second to only Derrick Henry (303). The Cowboys relied entirely on the rookie Tony Pollard as the relief back and he ended with 86 carries. Pollard was little used as a receiver, so Elliott’s share of the workload has not been decreased in any way.
Training Camp Needs: Keep Elliott healthy, install whatever new minor nuances into the offense.
HC Vic Fango enters his second season but OC Pat Shurmur (ex-NYG HC) takes his first year there. The Broncos typically produce upper-half in the league rushing stats and brought in Melvin Gordon to top their depth chart. Though he’s been in the league for five years, Gordon managed a 1,000-yard season (2017) only once and that because it was his only year without missing at least a couple of games. He missed 13 games over that time period but never more than four per year.
Gordon assumes the primary role there and Phillip Lindsay slides back to the third-down back. Royce Freeman’s two seasons haven’t produced much though he managed 43 catches last year. He slides back to the bench for the most part.
A new offense is being installed and Gordon has to acclimate to his new team. Rushing the ball is the activity that needs the least precision, so Gordon still carries plenty of fantasy promise. One of his potential limitations will be the schedule. The Broncos enjoyed one of the lightest slate of games in 2019 but face one of the most dramatic swings now facing the No. 26 rushing schedule.
Training Camp Needs: Keeping Gordon healthy is key and he’s been less than durable so far. The new offense will rely heavily on him and Shurmur wasn’t shy about loading up Saquon Barkley in New York. Freeman has already lost almost all fantasy value and Lindsay needs to show signs that he can remain a weekly consideration if only as a deep, flex play in a reception points league.
Lindsay has been more of the rusher, so any sign that he’s stepping up as a receiver will be a plus for him. But Gordon has caught as many as 57 passes in a season, so he is the only safe play from this backfield.
The good news: The Lions used their 2.03 pick on D’Andre Swift our of Georgia. The guy many considered the best back in the draft.
The bad news: When has a Detroit back matter since Barry Sanders left in 1998?
Oh yes, and 2.11 pick from 2018 of Kerryon Johnson is still there as the latest “this is the one” that wasn’t. OC Darrell Bevell is back for his second season and he always used two backs in 2019. But the primary guy would account for around 15 to 20 touches per game, Both Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic would also end up with four to six touches as well.
The Lions completed just 76 passes to running backs, but seven of them caught at least one and three had ten or more receptions. McKissic was best with 34 catches. Bevell did rely on a single back occasional at Seattle but mostly relied on two backs – or more.
The Lions had one of the worst schedules in 2019 and while it is better for 2020, it still isn’t quite average, let alone anything beneficial. Needing Swift to learn a new offense will start him out slowly, particularly having missed so much potential time from the COVID-19 situation.
Training Camp Needs: Get Swift up to speed. Unless he can clearly show as superior to Johnson, then they will both be used (if not others as well). This is the second season for the offense, so all eyes should be on Swift as the newest element. McKissic is also gone, so the third-down back has to be determined and is likely to be shared between Swift and Johnson.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones – Rush: 236-1084-16, Receive: 49-474-3
Jamaal Williams – Rush: 107-462-1, Receive: 39-253-5
The Packers had long been a pass-first team with Aaron Rodgers but HC Matt LaFleur and OC Nathaniel Hackett changed that as of last year when they went to a more balanced offense, ranking around average in all passing and rushing categories. The one spot of biggest change – running backs catching the ball. The Packers completed 101 passes to their running backs and that boosted the backfield’s fantasy value up to No. 6 in the NFL.
The Packers went to a 1-2 punch with Aaron Jons taking roughly two-thirds of the work and Jamaal Williams ended up with a third. Jones ran for 1,084 yards on 236 carries to lead the team and he added 49 receptions for 474 yards and a total of 19 touchdowns. That left Jones as the No. 2 fantasy back in most leagues for last year.
This is the final contract year for Jones, so he has plenty of incentive to remain productive and the offense came to rely on him more down the stretch. Three of his final four games contained over 21 rushes each, including the playoffs. Conversely, Williams went from double-digit touches to only a handful over his final month.
The Packers also drafted AJ Dillon (2.30) instead of a receiver as a sign that they want the backfield to continue to lead the offense. Dillon is a bruiser at 6-0, 247 pounds and could be a nice complement to smaller yet faster Jones. Williams is likely the odd man out here, especially after declining use last year and the Packers taking Dillon so early.
Training Camp Needs: Figure out how much Dillon can do and how much he displaces Williams. Jones’ role as the primary is a given but how much Dillon is involved will start to be answered in camp.
Houston Texans
Carlos Hyde – Rush: 245-1070-6, Receive: 10-42-0
Duke Johnson Jr. – Rush: 83-410-2, Receive: 44-410-3
Well, that was unexpected. The Texans haven’t featured even an average rushing attack for many years, and their solution was to trade away DeAndre Hopkins and acquire David Johnson.
Lamar Miller was lost for 2019 and has not been kept. Carlos Hyde stepped in and ran for 1.070 yards and six touchdowns but has also been sent packing. The Texans have Duke Johnson but his first season in Houston only resulted in 410 rush yards, 410 receiving yards, and five scores. In a year where they needed help. Johnson remains the third-down/relief back but that falls outside of reliable fantasy stats every week.
David Johnson had a monster year in 2016 but missed 2017 due to a torn ACL. He’s been unable to return to the same form when he had his only notable year. Still, HC Bill O’Brien is excited to have him and believes he is a three-down back. O’Brien’s decision-making skills have been called into question with the trade as it is.
The Texans are likely to not throw as well without Hopkins and that could force them to rely more on backs as receivers. The Texans schedule is worse this year and that won’t help Johnson run behind what has been a problematic offensive line that is still under work.
Training Camp Needs: Get David Johnson up to speed and hopefully a part of the passing game even if that comes out of Duke Johnson’s workload. The situation is a second chance for David Johnson, but he has to prove that he is healthy.
The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and that bears out with their rushing averages. Marlon Mack was finally allowed the primary role and responded with his first 1,000-yard season. Still, he only produced two 100-yard games after Week 1 and he had nearly no role as a receiver.
To help the backfield, the Colts spent their 2.09 pick on Jonathan Taylor. The rookie is a prototypical workhorse back at 5-10, 223 pounds, and runs a 4.39/40. He turned in around 2,000 rushing yards in each of his three seasons at Wisconsin. He won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s best running back twice.
His only concern is longevity. He left college with 926 carries over three years. Compare that to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (370), D.Andre Swift (440), or Cam Akers (586). With all those miles on the tires, he may be the next Ron Dayne (7,125) or Donnel Pumphrey (6,405). Or the next Tony Dorsett (6,526) or Ricky Williams (6,279). It is a concern but he lands in a very nice spot.
Nyheim Hines will retain his role as the third-down back but likely won’t see much more work now that there are two other viable options with Mack and Taylor. Since Taylor hasn’t been much of a receiver, he’s unlikely to do much on passing plays but should take at least the bigger share of the rushing load from Mack, assuming he gets up to speed on the offense in camp. That should not be a problem for an experienced runner with a great resume’.
The only aspect that is negative is that the Colts enjoyed one of the easiest rushing schedules in the NFL for 2019. For this season, they have one of the worst.
Training Camp Needs: This is all about Taylor and how quickly he can assume a primary role. And if Mack’s workload declines well below fantasy relevance. With a great offensive line, they could be better than their tough rushing schedule anyway. If Taylor draws raves in camp and turns in a few good preseason games, expect him to become a very hot commodity in your drafts.
Despite rumors aplenty, Leonard Fournette was not traded and remains the primary back for the Jaguars. He’s in the final year of his rookie contract with a lot to win by having a good season. He comes off a career-best 1,152 rushing yards and an impressive 76 receptions for 522 yards. That helped him back into the top ten fantasy backs last year. Fournette has been hampered by nagging injuries and managed to miss just one game in 2019.
The Jags drafted Ryquell Armstead (5.02) last year as the backup but he was held to only 35 carries for 108 yards. Fournette was the workhorse back and enjoyed one of the lighter rushing schedules. That changes back to just an average one for 2020 but Fournette’s role as a receiver kept him relevant last year.
The Jaguars are in HC Doug Marrone’s third season but he hired Jay Gruden (ex-WAS HC) to run the offense for the third offensive coordinator in the last three years.
Training Camp Needs: No depth chart changes here. Fournette has to learn a new offense but gets Gardner Minshew back and that pairing resulted in Fournette placing No. 5 in running back receptions last season. He just needs to remain healthy and have a big year for his 2020 payoff with a new contract.
With the high-powered offense scaring every defense, the backfield was one of the most productive until last year. The question as to who would be better – LeSean McCoy or Damien Williams – didn’t have an answer since no Chief’s back ranked better than No. 40 last year. None of them played more than 12 games. Darwin Thompson was their sixth-round pick but did nothing.
Now McCoy is gone and Williams would be the clear primary back. But – the Chiefs spent their 1.32 pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire fresh from LSU’s National Championship. He caught 55 passes last year which bodes even better for him to take over the backfield in all aspects. This is an obviously dangerous passing team, and if Edwards-Helaire can step up as a receiver, he’ll be a fantasy boon.
There is an opportunity for the rookie to step up and leave all the marginal talent in the backfield on the bench. Kareem Hunt’s first season ended with 272 carries for 1,327 yards and 53 catches for 455 yards. If Edwards-Helaire can do even half as much, he’ll be a fantasy starter. And while Hunt was a third-round pick, the Chiefs grabbed this rookie with their first pick and made him the first back selected in the draft.
Training Camp Needs: It’s all a question of how quickly Edwards-Helaire can get up to speed in this complicated offense. He’s already much more talented and the Chiefs have every intention on making him a big part of the offense. Best case – he blows up in a couple of preseason games and draws good reviews in camp.
The Raiders used their 1.24 pick last year to land Josh Jacobs as the first running back drafted. The rookie ran for 1,150 yards over 13 games played and overall, the Raiders ranked No. 4 in the number of rushes. He turned in six games with over 100-rushing yards and was fed over 20 carries in half of his games. His role as a receiver was held to never more than three catches per game.
The Raiders had one of the worst rushing schedules last year and while it remains a bit below average, it is still much better than 2019. The offensive line isn’t the advantage it once was, but at least it isn’t a liability. Playing in a new stadium usually has a negative impact for the first year but the offense is mature under Jon Gruden and they like relying on Jacobs to move the ball.
Training Camp Needs: Josh Johnson remains the only real fantasy play for the Raiders backfield and should improve upon a fine rookie season. Johnson could use more work as a receiver and while they have lots of new receivers to incorporate, that doesn’t mean that Johnson couldn’t see more targets for 2020.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler – Rush: 132-557-3, Receive: 92-993-8
Melvin Gordon III – Rush: 162-612-8, Receive: 42-296-1
The Chargers entered 2019 without Melvin Gordon but it did not really matter. Austin Ekeler stepped up in and added an astounding 92 receptions. Gordon eventually showed up in Week 5 and went on to have a standard season. He’s left for the Broncos now and behind are Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and the rookie Joshua Kelley (4.06).
HC Anthony Lynn enters his third season and has moved on from OC Ken Whisenhunt. Ex-quarterbacks coach Shane Steichen takes over and the offense is not expected to change much.
Germane is the absence of Philip Rivers after 14 seasons and that alone will have a certain impact on the offense. Tyrod Taylor takes over and while he was a starter in Buffalo, he was usually good for around 500 yards and five touchdowns as a runner. That will, at least partially, impact the rushing totals here.
The fantasy production from the backfield was surprising last year given that the Chargers went against one of the worst rushing schedules but they only ranked No. 18 in both carries and rushing yards. Their 148 catches for 1,357 yards led NFL running backs by a sizable margin and most of that was from the Ekeler.
With Gordon gone, the expectation is that the Chargers will rely on a committee of Ekeler, Jackson, and the rookie Kelley in some yet unknown mixture. Ekeler hasn’t rushed more than 132 times in any season and at 5-10, 198 pounds he may not hold up for much more. Plus he has an obvious role as a receiver. Justin was a 2018 seventh-rounder that hasn’t run more than 50 times and only weighs 193 pounds.
Kelley is bigger at 5-11, 212 pounds and he handled around 230 carries in each of his two seasons at UCLA. He’s no speedster with a 4.49/40 from the combine and he was only the eleventh back selected this year. But he is in the mix with for the big void left behind by Gordon.
Training Camp Needs: It will be interesting to see how much Taylor runs the ball but that won’t be evident until the season. There’s no reason to expect him to throw too much less to Ekeler. The interesting part of camp will be if Kelley shows anything to suggest that he can take a larger role as a rusher or this backfield will be a big committee with Ekeler’s receptions as the only reliably productive part.
Los Angeles Rams
Todd Gurley II – Rush: 223-857-12, Receive: 31-207-2
Malcolm Brown – Rush: 69-255-5, Receive: 2-16-0
This should be one of the most interesting training camps from a fantasy perspective since the departure of Todd Gurley leaves behind a major hole to fill. His rushing totals waned in 2019 but he still delivered 14 total touchdowns after turning in 21 and 19 over the previous two seasons. As a backfield, they scored 19 times in 2019.
Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson return. Brown is an undrafted pick up back in 2015 who just turned in a career-best 69 runs for 255 yards (3.7 YPC). Henderson was the 3.06 pick in 2019 who was limited to 39 carries for 147 yards (3.8 YPC) as a rookie. The Rams spent their 2.20 pick on Cam Akers as the fourth-overall running back drafted this year.
HC Sean McVay expressed confidence in his group of three rushers though two of them haven’t proven to be anything more than mediocre. Henderson was particularly underwhelming and Brown is just a career backup. The hope that anyone emerges into a significant role resides solely with the rookie Akers. The ex-Florida State back was adept at both rushing and receiving.
There is a chance that there is just a maddening committee approach that would erase a major fantasy opportunity. It’s all up to Akers to step up and become a fantasy-relevant primary back and keep the other two in their best-suited roles as backups.
Training Camp Needs: Akers has to get up to speed quickly. He is expected to become the main starter and brings in enough talent to be a big fantasy factor. It’s more of a question as to how long he will take to reach his potential.
Overall, last year could have gone better. It could not have gone much worse. The Dolphins used nine different running backs as a sign that they were unsuccessful. Kenyan Drake was sent to the Cardinals at midseason and no back was better than Kalen Bllage with 74 carries on the season. It was a disaster and as a team gained only 834 rushing yards – worst in the NFL.
It was a teardown and set on fire rebuilding year for new HC Brian Flores and no direction to go now but up (actually, or remain bad). The Fins are onto their next offensive coordinator with Chan Gailey being lured out of retirement. The backfield has been remade over in the offseason by adding Jordan Howard and Matt Brieda while the remaining disappointments fall down the depth chart.
Howard was unable to stick with the Eagles and for his fourth straight season, fell in every category. He was limited to only 525 rushing yards, just ten catches and a total of 594 yards. He missed six games with a shoulder injury but is expected to be healthy again. At 6-0 and 224 pounds, he’s a two-down runner with the size for short yardage.
Matt Brieda joined up after three seasons with the 49ers. He always produced when called on and even ran 153 times for 814 yards in 2018. He brings a better resume as a receiver and at 5-11, 190 pounds, he is more suited for third-down work.
The Fins once again have a terrible schedule. They fall from the No. 23 rushing schedule down to the No. 30 this year.
Training Camp Needs: The prospect of a rookie quarterback going against a terrible schedule is bad enough, but the Fins have to face even worse when they run. Howard and Brieda need to learn the offense and are worth watching, but expectations cannot be too high with this crew so far.
No questions here, other than when Dalvin Cook shows up. The Vikings are on to yet another offensive coordinator with Gary Kubiak taking over this year. But the turn to a rush-heavy attack paid off with Dalvin Cook enjoying a career year. He also lasted 14 games. Cook missed five games in 2018 and 12 games as a rookie in 2017. Cook was electric last year and averaged 18 carries per game and scoring 13 touchdowns.
Cook also caught 53 passes for 519 yards as a true double threat that kept the passing game alive as well.
The Vikings added Alexander Mattison with their 3.38 pick last year which was prudent given the number of games that Cook has missed so far. He ran 100 times for 462 yards and averaged 4.6 yards. Mattison only caught ten passes and is not a third-down option. Cook stayed on the field nearly every play and Mattison only offered a few relief carries in most games.
Cook enters the fourth and final year of his rookie contract and has said that he won’t show up at all until he signs a new deal. He is due just $2 million this year and played for only $1.4 million in 2019. Mattison will be a hot commodity if Cook doesn’t sign this summer.
Training Camp Needs: Sign Cook. Earlier than later since the offense will have new nuances to learn. If not, get Mattison practicing with the first-team offense.
New England Patriots
James White – Rush: 67-264-1, Receive: 72-645-5
Sony Michel – Rush: 247-912-7, Receive: 12-94-0
The Patriots are perennially at the top of the NFL for overall running back production even though they rarely feature any runner. 2019 was no different since they ranked No. 2 in fantasy points and yet the best running backs were James White (No. 18) and Sony Michel (No. 30). Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden were also involved and yet their rookie back Damien Harris (3.23) ended up as a rare scouting whiff with only four carries.
There are no changes to the backfield, but losing Tom Brady throws the entire offense into an unknown state. Jarrett Stidham is expected to be the new quarterback and he has really no track record to consider. The Patriots offense is wildly mature after OC Josh Daniels’ eight straight seasons so the scheme won’t change. White should remain just as valuable if not more should Stidham end up dumping the ball off even more than Brady did.
The Patriots always have a good offensive line and the schedule is about average like 2019.
Training Camp Needs: From a fantasy perspective, 2020 is all about playing without Tom Brady and what that means. The backfield should be no less important and likely even more. But they’ll always rely on a committee and White carries the most fantasy promise. Stidham should work on his passes to White before he worries about downfield.
Oddly, the Saints enjoyed one of the easiest rushing schedules in 2019 but dropped in nearly every running back category. There a few mitigating factors like the injury to Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara struggled with a leg injury almost all year and missed a few games. Notable also was the departure of Mark Ingram.
This is the most mature offense in the NFL with OC Pete Carmichael entering his twelfth season with the Saints. There are no changes to the offense in personnel but the team needs to have a healthier 2020 from their top players.
Murray was a capable addition and produced two 100-yard games when he helped replace the injured Kamara. His fantasy output fell just below starting consideration in common games with Kamara, but he was a great start with Kamara out.
The Saints will be even better with a healthy Kamara on the field. His final stats from 2019 were only marginally down in yardage but he fell from 18 touchdowns to only six last year.
Training Camp Needs: Keep Kamara healthy. There is nothing new here and that’s probably a big advantage this season with reduced time for teams to install schemes and introduce new players.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley – Rush: 217-1003-6, Receive: 52-438-2
Wayne Gallman Jr. – Rush: 29-110-2, Receive: 11-102-1
There’s a new offense for the Giants with the hire of OC Jason Garrett but it will mirror what he ran in Dallas which already takes into account using an elite running back. It may not work out as well for the receivers, given the jump in passing last year with OC Kellen Moore at the help in Dallas. But, Barkley should be very safe in remaining one of the busiest backs in the league.
Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain and missed two games but was hampered by it for much of the year. He still managed to gain 4.6 yards per carry but his touchdown totals fell from 15 to eight and he dropped from 2,028 total yards with 91 catches as a rookie to only 1,441 yards and 52 receptions.
He was the No. 2 best fantasy back as a rookie and looks to reassert himself this year. The Giants had to also fight against the No. 28 rushing schedule last year but get a nice boost to the No. 12 best slate of games.
Training Camp Needs: The new offense should rely heavily on Barkley and there are no new offensive skill players. Camp is all about installing the new offense that should favor the running back.
You don’t net the No. 32 ranking in backfield fantasy production without a lot of bad luck. That involved paying a fortune for a rusty running back running behind a bad offensive line in the first rebuilding year with all new coaches. Whew. It was really bad.
The entire backfield combined for only four total touchdowns. Bell played for 15 games and yet only gained 789 rushing yards thanks to a 3.2-yard average on his 245 rushes. He added 66 catches to help but only gained 461 yards from them.
Bell was the heavy-use, primary back (such as it was) and Bilal Powell was next best with only about 300 total yards and no scores. Powell is gone and Frank Gore was added at the age of 37 because he evidently has nothing else to do and nowhere else to go. The Jets also drafted La’Michel Perine (4.14).
HC Adam Gase still calls the plays and the second year has to be better than 2019. The rushing schedule is better and at some point, the offensive line is bound to improve. The Jets were so bad last year that Bell was held below ten carries in most of his games after midseason. He only once ran for more than 35 yards after Week 7.
Training Camp Needs: Gore is not expected to be more than a rarely used relief player though he might figure in at the goal line. Perine is just considered depth for now. Bell has his second year with the offense and just needs to stay healthy and hope the rest of the offense improves around him.
Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders – Rush: 179-818-3, Receive: 50-509-3
Jordan Howard – Rush: 119-525-6, Receive: 10-69-1
The Eagles had long relied on a committee approach to their backfield and likely still will – at least to a degree. The addition of Jordan Howard didn’t do much and he missed six games due to injury. He was allowed to leave for the Dolphins. Boston Scott played well in his brief showings while Darren Sproles finally just got too old and was never a factor. Jay Ajayi tore his ACL in 2019 and returned only briefly last year. He too has been released.
The story of the backfield revolved around rookie Miles Sanders (2.21). He ended with 818 rushing yards and a 4.6-yard average. Sanders became a bigger part of the passing game down the stretch with 23 of his 50 catches over his final five games. Sanders enters the year as the clear primary back who should enjoy an even better year thanks to a workload that will increase – and potentially by a large margin.
The Eagles have Boston Scott as their second back but are expected to end up with a veteran No. 2 at some point, even if it waits until after final cuts before the season starts. The offense is mature with four years of HC Doug Pederson controlling the plays. The offensive line is an advantage and the schedule is roughly average as it was last year.
Training Camp Needs: Same offense but Sanders works out as the primary back. He needs to stay healthy and just prepare for a bigger workload. The offense will likely need to incorporate a No. 2 back if they follow through on plans to acquire a veteran. If they don’t, then Sanders is in for a very busy year.
Last year, the offense was running on fumes after Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell were gone and Ben Roethlisberger was quickly lost for the season. James Conner was impressive in 2018 when he ran for 973 yards, caught 55 passes for 487 yards, and scored a total of 13 touchdowns. Last season, he missed six games due to thigh, quadriceps and shoulder injuries and was far less effective even when healthy.
All of 2019 stats should be questioned and taken with a grain of salt since the loss of Roethlisberger started the spiral. The Steelers remain committed to Conner as the primary back. Benny Snell was the 4.20 pick last year and ran 108 times for 426 yards though he had no role as a receiver. Jaylen Samuels was limited to 66 runs but his 47 catches were second-highest on the team.
There was speculation that the Steelers would grab an early back in the draft t compete with Conner but they only selected Anthony McFarland with their 4.18 pick. The rookie is more of a third-down player at 5-8 and 193 pounds. Conner is a bulky 6-1, 233 pounds.
Training CampNeeds: The intention is that Conner returns to being the primary back and he’ll run behind one of the better offensive lines. So long as Roethlisberger looks back to form this summer, the entire offense will get a lift. Unless McFarland surprises, the Steelers will move forward with Conner and Samuels as the starters again.
This is a busy backfield. Last year, the 49ers ranked No. 29 with only 476 passes and yet were No. 2 with 428 rushes. They were two carries short of being No. 1 in running back carries. And yet the highest-ranked running back was Raheem Mostert at only No. 25 for fantasy points. This was a committee approach and both Mostert and Tevin Coleman ran exactly 137 times. Matt Brieda turned in 123 runs as well. All combined the backfield produced well but individually, none of them ended as a top back.
Coleman came over from Atlanta to reunite with Mike Shanahan but was very average and while he started out as the primary rusher, he ended on a much quieter note. He rushed over ten times in seven of his first nine games. His final eight games contained only one with more than five runs. That was mostly due to Mostert.
After four very quiet seasons in the NFL, Mostert blew up at the end of last year. He was allowed double-digit carries in each of his last eight games and ended with a 5.6-yard average. He scored ten times and all but one came after Week 11. He also rushed for 220 yards on 29 runs in the win over the Packers in the Conference Championship while scoring four times. Mostert was rarely used as a receiver.
Brieda is gone but he had already fallen to No. 3 on the depth chart anyway. Coleman remains though he hasn’t been nearly as productive as hoped. He is still their goal line guy. Mostert is the one that draws the most interest this summer. He ended 2019 on a very high note and is in line for the busiest season of his six-year career.
Training Camp Needs: Coleman and Mostert should command a big chunk of the workload and Mostert has the most potential. The 49ers have new receivers to bring up to speed, so the backfield should remain busy. With Brieda gone, it would be good to see Mostert working on his receiving skills.
This was a top backfield in 2018 but injuries became an issue last year. Chris Carson ended the year with a hip injury that fortunately avoided the need for surgery. He’s expected to be ready for camp and the season. Rashaad Penny blew an ACL and is not expected to be back until after the season starts. They even lost C.J. Prosise to a broken arm.
To help out, the Seahawks tabbed free agent Carlos Hyde who himself was recovering from shoulder surgery. He is expected to be ready for camp and will be the No. 2 back at least until Penny is healthy but could just remain the primary backup. Carson accounted for a career-high 278 runs for 1,230 yards and a total of nine touchdowns last year.
The Seahawks have a very tough rushing schedule this year but the same was true in 2019. Hyde could see even more work if Hyde is slower to pick up the offense than expected, but Hyde could also cut into Carson’s workload potentially. Penny only played in eight games so Carson’s role was bigger in most games.
Training Camp Needs: The health of all three runners needs to be established. Carson and Hyde are both expected to be good to go, and if so, a committee approach is more likely. Hyde could be a great addition if he learns the offense and gets enough volume of touches to be a contributor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ronald Jones II – Rush: 172-724-6, Receive: 31-309-0
Peyton Barber – Rush: 154-470-6, Receive: 16-115-1
The Buccaneers had the worst backfield in the NFL for 2018 and they improved last season if only marginally. HC Bruce Arians and OC Byron Leftwich brought new life to the offense in all phases even if they ended up releasing a 5,000-yard quarterback and acquired Tom Brady.
Ronald Jones was the 2.06 pick by the Bucs in 2018 but he had a very underwhelming rookie campaign that ended with only 23 rushes for 44 yards and one score. He upped that dramatically under Arians and Leftwich when he ran for 724 yards on 172 rushes (4.2 YPC), caught 31 passes, and scored six times. He even notched his first NFL 100-yard game in Week 17 against the Falcons.
Peyton Barber fell to the No. 2 back last year and ended up with the Redskins this year. That led the Bucs to draft Ke’Shawn Vaughn (3.12) who would fill the No. 2 role. Dare Ogunbowale filled in as the third-down back last year but was usually limited to no more than three receptions. Vaughn is the newcomer here and has already drawn fantasy attention in early drafts.
Vaughn has potential. He played four years between Illinois and Vanderbilt and is as good of a receiver as he is rusher. Jones is expected to retain his role as the primary back and should take the bulk of all carries, but Vaughn will also contribute both as a relief back and as a receiver.
The Buccaneers have an average schedule after one of the easiest ones in 2019. The offensive line is still below average and Tom Brady brings in a new element to the team.
Training Camp Needs: Getting Vaughn acclimated to the offense is a priority but Brady and the passing game will command the most focus. Vaughn can help his case with a good showing in preseason games and the Bucs may end up rushing more this year with Brady under center. Arians had a positive effect on the offense and helped bring the backfield into the game plan.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry – Rush: 303-1540-16, Receive: 18-206-2
Dion Lewis – Rush: 54-209-0, Receive: 25-164-1
To his credit, Derrick Henry increased his production in all four years and now is slapped with the franchise tag at least until a long-term deal is done. Under the first year of OC Arthur Smith, he picked up where he left off at the end of 2018 and became the same workhorse beast that he was at Alabama. Henry ran a league-leading 303 times for 1,540 yards and scored 18 touchdowns. Dion Lewis only managed 86 touches and is gone.
Henry will reprise his role as the central focus of the offense and he’ll enjoy a jump from facing the No. 22 rushing schedule strength to the No. 7 best. The switch to Ryan Tannehill helped open up the offense and finally give the defense something other than Henry to worry about. That helps Henry – a lot.
To help replace Lewis, the Titans spent their 3.29 pick on Darrynton Evans who was a two-year starter at Appalachian State. He only caught 25 passes in college so he’ll need to work on that aspect of his game. As it stands, he’ll be no better than the relief back behind Henry. The Titans like to run the ball, so Evans could see enough of a role to merit a fantasy roster spot.
Training Camp Needs: Evans only started for two seasons at a small college, so he needs all the camp time he can get if he is to become the No. 2 back. There’s a dearth of any talent behind him, so if he falters the Titans likely will go looking for a free agent. This is Henry’s team and he’s not going to leave much work for anyone else anyway.
Washington Redskins
Adrian Peterson – Rush: 211-898-5, Receive: 17-142-0
Chris Thompson – Rush: 37-138-0, Receive: 42-378-0
This backfield has been below average for a while and cannot seem to get anyone to step up other than the aged Adrian Peterson who surprised in 2018 when Derrius Guice was injured before the season started. Peterson was unable to do as well in 2019 even though Guice disappeared yet again by Week 5.
The Redskins are onto a new head coach with Ron Rivera and he brought OC Scott Turner with him from Carolina to run this offense. The Redskins rank below average in virtually every offensive category for the last two seasons, so any improvement isn’t that hard to make.
This is the fourth new offensive coordinator over the last four years. The system will be new but it imports from Carolina where Christian McCaffrey was the No. 1 fantasy running back for 2019. There is no McCaffrey here, to be sure, and the Skins only change was to bring in Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic to add to the aged Peterson and always-injured Guice. This offense assumedly goes after a top back next year.
To make this even more confusing, they drafted Antonio Gibson with their 3.02 pick. The 6-0, 228 pound Memphis product was a wideout and listed as such for the NFL draft. He only had 44 carries and 33 catches over his two-year collegiate career but impressed HC Ron Rivera enough to prompt him to say that Gibson had many of the same qualities of McCaffery. More importantly, Turner says they want to be unpredictable on every play which is another way of saying they don’t have anyone worthy of relying on as a primary back.
Training camp has to sort this mess out and chances are very good that by Week 1, we won’t know anything more about who does what and when. The rushing schedule isn’t bad but the offensive line hasn’t been an advantage in a long time. This is easily the most convoluted backfield in the NFL that could constantly change during the season.
Training Camp Needs: Hopefully, training camp will help define at least the top backs in the scheme that might have some fantasy value. Peterson gets a bit worse each year and likely is past any full-time role. Guice cannot stay healthy and is unreliable. Barber was cut since he couldn’t make it on one of the worst rushing teams. McKissic is a third-down type but maybe No. 4 or even No. 5 on the depth chart. Gibson? Complete wild card.
This will be one of the more interesting camps, given all the questions. But it still may not produce anyone with fantasy value.
In this edition of Fantasy Football Weekly, we take a closer look at Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 2020 projections.
Recently, Matthew Stafford has received national attention headed into the 2020 NFL Season with several writers not only singing his praises but also putting him in the MVP conversation.
That makes my ears perk up with regards to fantasy football, so let’s take a look at Stafford’s draft position and projections in this week’s Fantasy Football Weekly.
Re-draft leagues
In re-draft, the key is to wait on quarterbacks, making them one of your last few picks if you can. In a standard 10 team league, upper-tier quarterbacks will start to be selected in the fourth or fifth round.
Stafford’s current average draft position is 111th overall on Fantasy Pros, which qualifies him a mid-tier quarterback in their Experts Consensus Rankings (ECR). He has long been considered a fantasy quarterback that you can wait on, with the upside to reach elite numbers and as a 10th or 11th round pick, he will almost always outperform his draft spot.
The Lions signal-caller is a great option, but you might have to select him a round or two earlier then projected if you want to secure him on your team. Load up on running backs and wide receivers early and then adding a talent like Stafford late might just be the formula that wins you a fantasy championship in 2020.
Best ball leagues
Stafford has often produced 300+ yard passing with multiple touchdown games which can give you those quarterback numbers you need to win in best ball leagues. But in recent years, he’s a bit more careful with the football, and with the Lions now having two young running backs and a focus on the run game, it’s fair to wonder if those monster games don’t come as often as they did in the past.
He played really well to start last year, so that bodes well for 2020 barring injury, of course. In best ball, you have to consider injuries a bit more as there are typically no waiver wire pickups during the season, so if one of your teams’ quarterbacks goes down for an extended amount of time that can really hamper your overall team.
The Lions long-time trigger man is again ranked around 115th overall in best ball leagues where the main strategy should still be to wait on a quarterback.
Dynasty leagues
Dynasty is often focused on youth and upside, and while Stafford is only 32 years old, he’s considered a veteran after double-digit plus years in the NFL. His upside depends on who you ask. Some still feel his dynasty value is very high as quarterbacks can play past the age of 40 these days, but many think other younger options on perennial top scoring offenses are better selections.
I believe Stafford has at least five good years left in fantasy football, so his play should still outperform his current draft stock which is around the 15th quarterback drafted. He has wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, and a revamped offensive line, so don’t be afraid to draft Stafford in dynasty leagues — but grab those younger guys at premium positions first.
Statistical projection and analysis
My 2020 projections for Stafford are:
4,200 passing yards
32 touchdown passes
12 interceptions
120 rushing yards
Two rushing touchdowns
Stafford has always been a fantasy football darling. When healthy he always puts up numbers, but most of us are still waiting for his glory days of 2011 to return when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 40 plus touchdowns. Those numbers are beyond elite and no longer expected from him, but I could see the Lions quarterback showing off his arm cannon all year in 2020 and putting up numbers that could easily help your team bring back the top prize in your league regardless of the fantasy format.
Jonathan Taylor is currently the RB29 coming off the board.
When the Indianapolis Colts selected running back Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, the fantasy football community was torn with what that meant for Indy’s backfield.
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On one hand, the Colts added an uber explosive talent to work behind the elite run-blocking offensive line. On another, it was immediately known that there would be a big timeshare at the top of the depth chart.
Still, there are plenty who believe Taylor is worth taking relatively early in drafts. With his average draft position (ADP) currently sitting in the sixth round as the RB29, ESPN’s Mike Clay believes there might not be any value taking him at that spot.
I get the hype on Taylor from a long-term standpoint, but the Colts’ backfield is far too crowded for him to pay off a top-30 ADP among running backs right now. Taylor will open his career sharing carries with Marlon Mack and without much of a role as a receiver (that’s Nyheim Hines’ gig). As well as Mack has run the ball, he has yet to manage a top-20 fantasy campaign in his career, and that was with only two backs in the fold. Like Nick Chubb two years ago, Taylor may explode onto the fantasy scene in the second half, but he’s hard to justify at his current ADP.
Taylor is certainly interesting for fantasy football purposes and while it is well known he is a commodity in dynasty leagues, it remains to be seen where he should be taken in redraft leagues.
As it stands right now, Taylor is my RB33. So he’s just beneath where he’s being drafted this offseason. He is in store for a productive season—I have him with 823 rushing yards and seven touchdowns—but his ceiling is capped because of the passing work that will likely go to Nyheim Hines.
The Colts are still committing to a timeshare with Mack on early downs and there is even a chance the latter gets an opportunity to prove he’s the leader in the room.
Even with the potential to blow up in the second half, Taylor is being drafted just ahead of where I have him ranked. There is a chance he blows up in the second half, but the Colts backfield will be messy regardless for fantasy managers.
Houston Texans running back Duke Johnson may be a sleeper pick in fantasy football in the 2020 season.
Very few would disagree that Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is a solid selection for fantasy football. The 5-11, 205-pound running back churned 2,392 scrimmage yards in 2019.
However, in terms of PPR points per touch, McCaffrey had the third-highest ranking in that metric, according to Pro Football Focus. In fact, McCaffrey, who is rightly recognized for his work, was tied with the Houston Texans’ Duke Johnson with 1.2 PPR points per touch last year.
Johnson collected three receiving touchdowns in his first season with the Texans. The former Cleveland Brown also displayed his versatility as a runner with two rushing touchdowns.
Most PPR points per touch last season
1. James White – 1.4 2. Austin Ekeler – 1.4 3. Duke Johnson – 1.2 4. Christian McCaffrey – 1.2 pic.twitter.com/CXZTL02SPS
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 3, 2020
Johnson wouldn’t be a player that would be taken as high as McCaffrey. In fact, Johnson will take a back seat to the other Johnson, David Johnson, as the top guy on the Texans’ depth chart.
However, Johnson would make for a decent waiver wire pickup when the starters could be on a bye week. The former Miami Hurricane caught 44 passes for 410 yards in 2019.
Every year, a handful of players rebound in a big way, and we have them pegged for 2020.
Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset. Heading into the 2020 season, let’s explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2019.
QB Baker Mayfield | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 10:09
Mayfield’s rookie season closed out about as well as anyone could have expected in 2018 before the wheels came off under the one-and-done tenure of Freddie Kitchens as a head coach. Replacing Kitchens is Kevin Stefanski, a level-headed, well-groomed offensive mind whose roots in the West Coast offense should help as much as his demeanor. There’s no question the Browns are extremely talented on offense. The line has a few work-in-progress areas, but the combination of a zone-blocking system with a play-action emphasis will be the ticket to getting Mayfield back on track. He’s a better athlete than often given credit for being, and early reports say he has fully bought in to Stefanski’s ways.
After a QB16 finish last year, the expectations are modest. Lowered expectations comes with less pressure, and all of these aspects tie together for a maturing quarterback who sometimes is his own worst enemy. Look for low-end QB1 results via efficiency increases, fewer stalled drives and turnovers, and an emphasis on taking smart shots down the field.
RB James Conner | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 4:01
An efficient, consistent producer who had a nose for the end zone in 2018, the Steelers having four capable backs indicates they may look to keep Conner fresh all year after he has failed to stay healthy for 16 games with an increased role. During his breakout ’18 campaign, the Pittsburgh product ran only 215 times in 13 games (16.5 per week) and touched the ball just over 20 total times, on average. He made a name for himself in fantasy circles with 12 showings of double-digit PPR points and a dozen touchdowns scored on the turf, adding one through the aerial game.
In 2019, though, injuries, no Ben Roethlisberger, and an overall stunted offense put a target on Conner’s back for defenders. His rushing average dipped by half a yard, and 1.6 yards per reception were shaved from his passing work. He touched the ball 15 times per appearance. That has to change. Even if he handles it only 15 times a game in 2020, the efficient version of him we saw the year prior must return or this recommendation is not going to work. Big Ben returns to health. JuJu Smith-Schuster should be better and healthy. A huge year is possible from WR Diontae Johnson. The passing game gained more depth, as did the backfield, with the selection of Anthony McFarland Jr. as a change-of-pace option. Conner, in 16 games, even at 15 touches as an average, still has a chance to creep into the low-tier RB1 territory. He remains a risk-reward target as a second back, offering more security in PPR.
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WR Odell Beckham Jr. | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 3:07
Coinciding with the inclusion of his quarterback in this list, Beckham stands to benefit greatly from the move to this new offense. He played in a West Coast design before, and Stefanski’s version will find ways to utilize Beckham down the field to take advantage of his game-breaking skill set. The 2019 version of the Browns struggled so much to protect Mayfield, who never really was on the same page with OBJ, and it led to a lot of underneath work for Jarvis Landry.
The Minnesota offense under Stefanski supported a pair of talented receivers when both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen were healthy, spanning late 2018 through the end of 2019. A balanced attack with a pair of legitimate No. 1 backs will be the driver of this offense, which isn’t to say Beckham will struggle to return to WR1 status. Expect his target share to increase over last year, while his overall total of looks may not change or could even decrease slightly (133 last year). Improved efficiency from the designs, the quarterback’s decisions, and a dangerous play-action passing offense will help OBJ return to fantasy glory.
WR Adam Thielen | Minnesota Vikings | ADP: 3:06
After a pair of stellar fantasy football seasons by most any standard, Thielen struggled to overcome a hamstring injury in 2019 and was relegated to playing only 10 games, limited in a few. He averaged just 11.4 points per contest in PPR, which was his low since coming onto the fantasy scene in 2016. He still displayed game-breaking ability in couple of his healthy games and scored six times in five of the outings, but inconsistency ravaged his fantasy returns, unlike in 2018.
Minnesota lost offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to Cleveland Brows as their new head coach, paving a return to coaching for Gary Kubiak. The veteran play-caller will run an offense that is awfully similar to Stefanski’s West Coast derivative. Thielen’s top partner in the passing game, Stefon Diggs, was dealt to the Buffalo Bills and replaced by a first-round rookie. This works in Thielen’s favor for target share but also likely means he’ll see more doubles than ever. Nevertheless, trust in his connection with Kirk Cousins, a dangerous play-action passing game, and Thielen remaining healthy to create another WR1 campaign.
WR T.Y. Hilton | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 5:02
In 2019, Hilton not only had to deal with losing his BFF in Andrew Luck to premature retirement, but a nagging calf injury cost him five games and a quad strain forced him to sit another. In 10 games, he averaged only 12.5 PPR points, and the speedy veteran failed to catch more than 45 balls for the first time in his career. No stranger to injuries, Hilton has missed time in consecutive seasons, and 50 percent of his eight seasons haven’t seen him play 16 games.
The outlook for 2020 is much better. The calf injury is no longer an issue, and Jacoby Brissett has been replaced by Philip Rivers. In the past two drafts, the Colts have spent second-rounders on a pair of receivers to help alleviate some pressure on the 30-year-old Hilton. Indianapolis may opt for more running in 2020 with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor behind arguably football’s best line, and Hilton actually can benefit from a convincing play-action system. Despite undeniable overall health concerns, Hilton is a WR2 with big-play ability in a contract year.
TE Eric Ebron | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 13:11
As mentioned in the Conner writeup above, the return of Roethlisberger is crucial. Ebron still is an injury liability, and the idea he will be a weekly starter probably should be scrapped from the get-go. In 2018, during his breakout season, Ebron’s fantasy football worth was fueled by his nose for the end zone. Not only was he a TD machine, Ebron finished that season sixth in receptions and fifth in yardage generated by a tight end. He also didn’t have to contend with Jack Doyle, and Luck was his quarterback.
In 2020, provided Big Ben stays healthy, the situation is similar in several ways. We have waited to see veteran tight end Vance McDonald emerge for several years, and he, too, is injury-prone. The Steelers have a pass-leaning approach, and the best way for Ebron to find fantasy utility is as a weapon in the red zone once again. Look for the attention paid to Conner and Smith-Schuster as a benefit for Ebron seeing mostly one-on-one coverage. That said, he comes with tremendous risk and is best drafted in a rotational situation.
5 best fantasy football seasons in Raiders history
veThe Raiders have a long history of having productive fantasy players on their roster. Just last season, Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller were two of the most productive fantasy players in the NFL when they were on the field.
Today, we will be looking at the five best fantasy football seasons in Raiders’ history. We will be sorting by total PPR points, excluding quarterbacks. So without further ado, let’s take a look at these five great fantasy seasons.
5. 1983 – TE Todd Christensen (287.7 PPR)
You can make a case that Todd Christensen’s season in 1983 should be higher on this list. In his first All-Pro season, Christensen caught 92 passes for 1,247 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was the team’s leading receiver and was, by far, the top tight end in the NFL that year.
Christensen outscored the No. 2 tight end (Kellen Winslow) by nearly 38 points. To put this even more in perspective, no tight end in the NFL scored more than 260 PPR points in 2019 and only three tight ends have had better seasons since 2010 (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce.
4. 1983 – RB Marcus Allen (302.8 PPR)
In Marcus Allen’s second season in the NFL, he put up massive numbers again as he totaled 1,604 yards and 11 touchdowns on just 334 touches. Allen averaged an incredible 4.8 yards per touch as the Raiders rode him to a 12-4 record. The only negative on Allen from this season was the fumbles, as he put the ball on the ground 14 times.
Allen finished the season as the No. 4 running back in fantasy football as only Eric Dickerson, William Andrews and Walter Payton outscored him. But don’t worry, Allen got his revenge over the next few seasons.
3. 2002 – RB Charlie Garner (347.3 PPR)
At No. 3 is Charlie Garner during the 2002 season. With first-year head coach Bill Callahan running the show in Oakland, he fed his star running back in both the passing game and run game.
During that season, Garner ran the ball for 962 yards and seven touchdowns on just 182 touches (5.3 yards per carry). But what made him a PPR star was his receiving ability. Garner caught a career-high 91 passes in 2002, totaling 941 yards and four touchdowns in the passing game.
In total, Garner racked up over 1,900 total yards and 11 touchdowns as he was the No. 4 running back in PPR leagues behind only Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson and Ricky Williams. Not bad.
2. 1984 – RB Marcus Allen (358 PPR)
After finishing behind Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson the year prior, Allen was finally able to pass them in fantasy points in his third season in the NFL. On just five more touches than in 1983 (339), Allen was able to total 1,926 yards and 18 touchdowns. It was the most of his NFL career as he averaged a stunning 22.38 points per game in fantasy football.
Somehow, Allen wasn’t named to the All-Pro team despite his fantastic individual season and with the overall success of the Raiders. But that just seemed to motivate him even further the following season.
1. 1985 – RB Marcus Allen (380 PPR)
And at No. 1 is Marcus Allen’s season from 1985, in which he somehow was able to beat his previous two elite seasons. Allen was a monster in the run game during his improbable 1985 run, tallying 1,759 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. He also added 555 yards in the passing game, totaling for 2,314 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Allen won the NFL MVP award for his fantastic season, but he somehow didn’t finish as the top back in fantasy football that year. Roger Craig of the 49ers edged him out on points (383.6) as he caught 92 passes and scored 15 total touchdowns.
Nevertheless, Allen’s MVP run was one of the best running back seasons in NFL history
Looking at the state of quarterbacks before the preseason
Quarterbacks run the ball much more for the last couple of seasons, even if that stems from just a few players. But they are all young and a sign of things to come. And with that change in offensive direction, all other ball-handling positions are impacted – usually negatively.
The position is still less valued in fantasy terms since most leagues only start one and the difference between players is less with their marginal demand. But as goes the quarterback, so goes the fantasy fortunes of all their offensive players.
Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterback Totals by Year
The overall passes have gone down slightly for the last few seasons and the touchdown passes regressed from the near record-high of 2018. But the rushing attempts are at a record-high for the last two seasons along with more touchdowns scored on the ground than ever. That’s more than just the top few rushing quarterbacks, but they still account for a huge chunk of those totals.
Top Ten Quarterback Totals by Year
The amount of passes thrown by the top quarterbacks is one of the lowest in the last decade. They also threw 63 fewer touchdowns than in 2018 – almost 20% fewer. And yet, the rushing yardage blew the record out of the water. Thanks in no small part to Lamar Jackson (1,206), Kyler Murray (544), Josh Allen (510), and Deshaun Watson (413), the top ten fantasy quarterbacks almost doubled the rushing yardage gained in the last decade.
The rushing touchdown total (38) also was nearly double that of most recent years. Those top four rushing quarterbacks mentioned above accounted for 27 ground scores by themselves – more than the entire league in most years.
In the team breakdowns below, the most common statistics and fantasy points are shown, along with the individual quarterback that led their team.
Granted – 2018 was a horrible season by all accounts. The offense imploded and they tore down the coaching staff. But in HC Kliff Kingsbury’s first season, the change was dramatic and more so considering that the new offense was headed by the rookie Kyler Murray.
The position is locked up for at least the next four years and likely beyond. Murray not only threw for 20 scores but he also only tossed 12 interceptions. And he added 100 runs for 553 yards. The only negative so far is that their schedule has been much worse than most teams. Adding DeAndre Hopkins is a major boost for a team that already should see increased development for Christian Kirk, Keesan Johnson, Andy Isabella, and Hakeem Butler.
Training Camp Needs: Mainly just integrate DeAndre Hopkins into an already up-and-coming offense.
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan – Pass: 616-408-4466-26, Rush: 34-148-1
The first season of OC Dirk Koetter went well enough with Matt Ryan breaking the 5,000-yard mark. His touchdown totals dropped from 35 to 29, and he doesn’t offer much as a rusher. But the addition of Todd Gurley should pay some dividends to a weak rushing offense. He could also prevent Ryan from throwing more touchdown passes as well.
The only change for Ryan is losing Austin Hooper (75-787-6) and replacing him with Hayden Hurst. Ryan has emerged as a solid fantasy start for the last two seasons and nothing here has changed that jeopardizes a repeat. The Falcons traded away Mohamed Sanu at Week 8 last year and that sparked Calvin Ridley. The offense is now much more standard with the two wideouts and a tight end accounting for almost all the passing stats.
Training Camp Needs: Working with Hayden Hurst will pay some dividends.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson – Pass: 401-265-3127-36, Rush: 176-1206-7
Lamar Jackson’s passing stats were anemic as a rookie in 2018 though he was a strong runner. Last season, he threw less and yet somehow managed to more than double the passing touchdowns to 37 – tops in the NFL. He also rushed for over 1,000-yards and in short, led many fantasy teams to the promised land last year.
With six 100-yard rushing efforts, Jackson was a top fantasy play every week and a dominating difference maker in most. The Ravens haven’t changed anything notable for 2019 but should be at least incrementally better from Marquise Brown entering his second season, along with introducing talented rookies of running back J.K. Dobbins and wideout Devin Duvernay.
Training Camp Needs: Keep Jackson healthy. Sharpen the chemistry with the receivers just in case he cannot run all over every defense again this year.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen – Pass: 461-271-3089-20, Rush: 109-510-9
The rookie Allen struggled in 2018 but spent last season cranking out a surprising amount of fantasy points, even if many were related to his rushing production instead of passing. His 3,448 passing yards were only average along with the 20 touchdowns but he ran in nine scores along with 506 yards as a runner.
The Bills enter their third season with OC Brian Daboll and have added Stefon Diggs as the pricey new primary wideout. John Brown was a pleasant surprise last year when he broke 1,000 yards but only Cole Beasley managed to top 400 receiving yards. The addition of Diggs can only help.
Allen turned in over 40 rushing yards in over half of his games last year. That will continue to help his consistent fantasy scoring.
Training Camp Needs: Work on chemistry with Stefon Diggs. The team would benefit greatly from an improved passing offense.
Carolina Panthers
Kyle Allen – Pass: 489-303-3322-17, Rush: 32-106-2
This is a rebuilding year and last year’s stats bear out why. The Panther cleaned house of both coaches and quarterbacks after the implosion of 2019. HC Matt Ruhe (ex-Baylor HC) brings plenty of promise to the team but they’ve thrown their current future behind Teddy Bridgewater who looked good manning the juggernaut of the Saints’ offense. But – an entirely new scheme is being installed with a new quarterback.
Fantasy fans are reasonably cool for 2019 for the Panthers even though they have one of the better passing schedules. They’ve added Robbie Anderson as an upgrade over the disappointing Curtis Samuel but gave up Greg Olsen. That may not be material unless the offense needs a receiving tight end.
With so many unknowns, there could be an opportunity here but mostly just a lot of risk, fantasy-wise.
Training Camp Needs: A lot. The scheme is all new and Bridgewater has to adapt. New receiver in Anderson. Worth watching and again – better schedule than most. But missed time because of the COVID-19 already puts the team at a disadvantage.
There was some optimism carried over from 2018 and the Bears faced one of the best schedules last year. It did not matter. Mitchell Trubisky regressed in most areas and the Bears move into yet another offensive coordinator in Bill Lazor (ex-CIN HC). Trubisky was the 1.02 pick in 2017 and has been thoroughly outplayed by Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson who went after him.
That led Chicago to bring in Nick Foles who in eight years still has yet to play a full season in the NFL. The only other addition was Jimmy Graham who has given every indication that his best years don’t even show up in the rearview mirror anymore. Allen Robinson has stood alone as the only receiver of any note and Chicago hasn’t done anything to change that.
Training Camp Needs: Quarterback controversy! Trubisky enters camp as the starter but Foles will be allowed every chance to take over the reins. The set of receivers here are below average to be sure and may still be little more than Robinson again. The Bears have the best passing schedule in the NFL and that helps the eventual starter. But – Trubisky had a great one last year and flopped. Probably the best fantasy outcome is for Foles to win the job since he hasn’t proven to be unable to move the offense yet.
Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton – Pass: 528-314-3494-16, Rush: 32-73-4
Time for change after nine years of Andy Dalton. The Bengals invested their 1.01 pick on Joe Burrow on the premise that he can replicate the wild success of his senior year at LSU (and not the other three years he played). There’s no controversy here. Burrows will be under center in Week 1.
HC Zac Taylor’s first season did not go well (hence the first overall pick). But it will be the same offense and might even return A.J. Green from his lost 2019 season. That would prove a major upgrade along with tabbing wideout Tee Higgins with their 2.01 pick.
The future looks bright – in theory anyway – but 2019 will be a down year for the quarterback position.
Training Camp Needs: Not getting in any work up through training camp will hurt what will already be a daunting task of learning the ropes for Burrow. The best hope is that he shows progress as the season progresses.
For fantasy purposes, the expectations here have to be kept low. Burrow will offer fantasy value if he continues to run the ball as he did in college, but that’s only when the play breaks down.
The Browns come off a bad year (Part XVIII) and Baker Mayfield stumbled after a very promising rookie season with 27 passing scores. Adding Odell Beckham did not have any real effect since he played the entire season with a strained groin. And Jarvis Landry was also injured. So out with the old, in with the new. Again.
HC Kevin Stefanski (ex-MIN OC) takes over and begins rebuilding. But – unlike other teams, the personnel here remains mostly the same just healthier. They all have to learn the new offensive scheme but Mayfield has a solid set of weapons. He faced the No. 31 passing schedule last year and only goes against the No. 9 for 2020. TE Austin Hooper was the only add.
Mayfield does have a new system and installing it has been slowed by the COVID-19 fallout. But there are many solid reasons to expect this offense and Mayfield, in particular, to improve and possibly significantly this year.
Training Camp Needs: Installing the new offense and getting everyone on the same page. Just having healthy players will be an improvement by itself. It would be great to hear that Beckham looks like his old self.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott – Pass: 596-388-4902-30, Rush: 52-277-3
The Cowboys may have lost a lot of cash not renewing Dak Prescott last year when it would have been far cheaper. Prescott turned in a monster year with almost 5,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns and enough rushing production to place him around the No. 3 fantasy quarterback last year.
The head coach changes to Mike McCarthy but the offense remains mostly the same with holdover OC Kellen Moore. Both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup broke 1,100 yards and return. Jason Witten left but wasn’t a major factor anyway. More favorably, the Cowboys used their 1.17 pick on CeeDee Lamb that should yield one of the top receiving trios in the NFL.
The schedule is slightly better and was already top ten easier last year in schedule strength.
Training Camp Needs: Learn any new nuances in the offense with Moore opening up the playbook more and McCarthy sure to have some influence. Meshing with Lamb is the most crucial need in camp, along with any sign that Blake Jarwin looks like he can step up.
Denver Broncos
Joe Flacco – Pass: 262-171-1822-6, Rush: 12-20-0
The first season for HC Vic Fangio was a struggle with Joe Flacco underperforming and then missing half the season injured. Eventually, 2.10 pick Drew Lock took over for five games, but they had already dumped Emmanuel Sanders and thrown in the towel. This training camp is big for Lock who gets his first summer as a starter.
There is still rebuilding, but at least they are at the point of adding players and not just cutting them. Wideout Jerry Jeudy was their 1.15 pick and brings great optimism when he pairs with Courtland Sutton who was the 2.08 pick in 2018. This is still a very young team and TE Noah Fant was their first-round pick last year.
Lock is missing out on valuable time with the offense while the COVID-19 situation plays out. Adding in the addition of RB Melvin Gordon and every skill position is filled with a talented, early-round draft pick.
Training Camp Needs: New OC Pat Shurmur has plenty to use in his offense but this is a very young team that needs to mesh together as they learn the new offense. The Broncos passing schedule is below average and that also could slow development. But Lock has all the tools to succeed once he learns how to use them. Camp is critical to start that process.
Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford – Pass: 291-187-2499-19, Rush: 20-66-0
With 11 seasons in Detroit, Matt Stafford is one of the most tenured quarterbacks in the league. HC Matt Patricia enters his third season after shaping the team. Stafford had been a lock for over 4,200 yards every year until the rebuild started. Last year, he was on a pack for 5,000 yards when he missed the final eight games due to injury.
The Lions have rebuilt their backfield with the rookie rushers D’Andre Swift and RB Jason Huntley to join the ever-injured Kerryon Johnson. The receivers remain the same other than Geronimo Allison adding depth.
Stafford is a hot commodity this summer and rightfully so. He was already one of the top passers last year before injury and now returns to the same cast of receivers. Kenny Golladay has become elite and Marvin Jones is healthy again. Even Danny Amendola has a role here. The Lions drafted T.J. Hockenson with their 1.08 pick in 2019 so big things are expected with him in his second season.
Even better, the Lions have one of the easiest passing schedules in the league. Stafford is not going to earn his paycheck by taking off on a run.
Training Camp Needs: Just more time with the same set of healthy receivers. It would be great to hear Hockenson looks better this year.
I’m sorry – Jordan who? The Packers surprised everyone when they selected quarterback Jordan Love with their 1.26 pick and that only drove the wedge in further between what Aaron Rodgers was for so many years and what he has become under this new regime.
Rodgers is 36 years old, a youngster in Brady-ian terms, but he had always been one of the top passers in the league until the last two seasons. There are no changes here barring a mind-bending, highly unlikely trade but the offense does not throw nearly as much anymore ranking just No. 16 in pass attempts.
Worse yet, the Packers need better receivers desperately and all they did was get Devin Funchess and dumped Geronimo Allison. They never touched the position in a draft considered rich in wideouts.
Training Camp Needs: The second season for OC Nathaniel Hackett’s offense and no reason to expect improvement.
The camp is worth watching. Deshaun Watson is established as one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league but the Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins for broken-down David Johnson and some Pizza Hut coupons.
They did acquire Brandin Cooks as his fourth NFL team in the last five years and paid-up shockingly high for Randall Cobb. There is always a chance that Will Fuller can string together more than eight games without a season-ending injury.
Watson enters his fourth season and needs to remain productive for his looming and profitable Contract 2. He just won’t have perhaps the best receiver in the NFL to catch the ball anymore.
Training Camp Needs: Integrating Cooks into Hopkins’ old role has to happen quickly if the offense can remain as dangerous. The schedule is better for 2020 but Watson has to figure out how to take advantage of new, yet less talented, receivers.
This is worth watching. Andrew Luck retired only eight minutes before the 2019 season and that took a major toll on the position and team. Jacoby Brissett tried and failed to keep the team afloat so Philip Rivers was brought in as the new starter. That’s not a bad thing.
Granted, Rivers is 38 years old, but he’s been a lock for 4,300 passing yards each season and often over 30 touchdowns. He offers almost no rushing production but is still one of the better passers in the NFL.
The cast of receivers hasn’t changed much other than drafting Michael Pittman (2.02) but Rivers has to get on the same page with a new set of players for the first time since being drafted in 2004. On the plus, T.Y. Hilton should return to his normal 1,000-yard season now that he is back to health.
Training Camp Needs: This is the third year of the offense under HC Frank Riech, so camp is just a chance to get Rivers integrated and familiar with the scheme and players. Mostly his connection with Hilton will matter the most.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Gardner Minshew II – Pass: 470-285-3271-21, Rush: 67-344-0
The Jaguars brought in Nick Foles for yet another chance to become a starter and after injury and a surprisingly effective sixth-round Gardner Minshew was done, Foles is onto his next gig. Minshew not only threw 21 scores against only six interceptions over 12 starts, but he became the most “fun” quarterback in the league.
Minshew is the Week 1 starter this time and they drafted wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. (2.10) to add to DJ Chark and Dede Westbrook. Tyler Eifert was also added.
This was an average, middle-of-the-road passing offense last year but that still greatly exceeded expectations. Minshew has a worse passing schedule for 2020, but at least he has more weapons and enters the year knowing that he is the starter.
Training Camp Needs: Hard to count on Shenault much at least early in the season. But Eifert needs to show some chemistry and throwing off the rust has to happen.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes – Pass: 484-319-4031-26, Rush: 43-218-2
Patrick Mahomes missed a few games and played injured in several, so his astronomic production dropped from 2019. All the receivers return from 2019 and the rushing effort should see an upgrade with drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire with their 1.32 pick.
Both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins missed time due to injury last season and the rookie Mecole Hardman played through his own ailments. A healthy returning group of wideouts will only help Mahomes from his “down” year of being the No. 7 best fantasy quarterback.
Training Camp Needs: Just stay healthy.
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr – Pass: 513-361-4054-21, Rush: 27-83-2
Derek Carr made it through another NFL draft without gaining any competition, although the Raiders added Marcus Mariota as a backup. The Raiders come off another year of needing receivers and the Antonio Bryant experiment exploded and injured anyone standing in the lab.
Carr also suffered through one of the worst passing schedules as well, so he gets a boost from only facing an average slate of opponents for 2020.
Tight end Darren Waller became the default primary receiver as did Jared Cook the previous year. But this year promises to be far better, even if they have to get used to new surroundings and new players. The Raiders added Nelson Agholor and drafted Henry Ruggs (1.12) and Bryan Edwards (3.17) to add to Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow.
Training Camp Needs: Carr remains the clear starter with a better schedule and just needs to work on connecting with Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholor. This passing offense should be markedly better than 2019 but the new pieces will need time to integrate, along with just getting used to being in a new home stadium and city.
Los Angeles Chargers
Philip Rivers – Pass: 591-390-4615-23, Rush: 12-30-0
The Chargers have been average at passing for the last couple of years and 2020 shapes up for likely more of the same. Long-time starter Philip Rivers is gone and HC Anthony Lynn has yet another new offensive coordinator in Shane Steichen who was the QB coach there last year.
Tyrod Taylor enters training camp as the starter and may remain so all year. But the Chargers drafted Justin Herbert with their 1.06 pick and that wasn’t for a backup. The only question is when Herbert gets the starting nod. A lack of time with the team due to the COVID-19 situation undoubtedly puts Herbert at a disadvantage for any quick move up the depth chart.
This is still largely the same scheme and there are no new receivers of any note. The Chargers had one of the worst schedules last year so moving up to average seems like a boost.
Training Camp Needs: Taylor has to mesh with his new team and learn the offense, all the while trying to hold off Herbert. No team spends a top-ten pick on a guy they plan to ignore for a year so Herbert has a good shot at eventual playing time. But short of an inspired camp, Herbert sits on the sideline for now while Taylor runs the team.
Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff – Pass: 626-394-4638-22, Rush: 33-43-2
The Rams had a down year for 2019 and Jared Goff fell to only the No. 11 fantasy quarterback after rising to No. 6 the previous season. Even then, he was on fire the first part of the year and cooled later including his monumental flop in the Super Bowl.
This year, the Rams still have an average sort of schedule and they let WR Brandin Cooks go. But Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds remain the starting wideouts. And Tyler Higbee suddenly went nuclear for the final five games of the season after three and a half years of abject mediocrity. Go figure.
This is now a mature offense of three seasons under HC Sean McVay with the weapons to make Goff successful. Losing Todd Gurley could result in more passing scores since he was a touchdown sponge. Goff threw for 28 and 32 touchdowns and then only managed 22 last year.
Training Camp Needs: With no changes to scheme, coaches, or players, the Rams are in good shape to weather the lack of time together. Camp just serves as a refresher.
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Pass: 502-311-3529-20, Rush: 54-243-4
The Dolphins struggled during HC Brian Flores inaugural season. The first part of the equation was dropping players for draft picks and the offense ended up using both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. Only Devante Parker really succeeded although the rookie Preston Williams was starting to assert himself before blowing out his ACL in Week 9.
The Fins brought OC Chan Gailey out of retirement to run the offense. They did not add any new receivers of note but did beef up the backfield that they stripped bare last year. But the Fins spent their 1.05 pick on Tua Tagovailoa in the hopes he can replicate his success at Alabama while avoiding the injuries he also had there. By all available sources, Tagovailoa is healthy again and will vie for the starting spot against Fitzpatrick.
This is still a situation to avoid and somehow, the Fins not only had one of the worst passing schedules last year, but they have just as bad for this one.
Training Camp Needs: Fitzpatrick has to learn the new scheme from Gailey but has all the same receivers from last year. Camp is more about seeing where Tagovailoa is in his recovery and readiness to start to play. This should be a down year again but it will be all about preparing the rookie to lead the team in the future.
After two straight seasons in the top ten for fantasy quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins fell back to only No. 19 thanks to a renewed devotion to the rushing offense. There is a new offensive coordinator in Gary Kubiak but that is not expected to change how much the Vikings will pass. They also go from a middle-of-the-road schedule to one of the tougher ones in the league.
The Vikings allowed Stefon Diggs to leave despite him being the only wideout with more than 420 yards last year. Adam Thielen is healthy again after missing six games but his production already waned after an impressive 2018. The Vikings also drafted Justin Jefferson (1.22) to replace Diggs but that will take some time, especially with the lack of practice because of the COVID-19 problem.
Once again, the Vikings do have one of the easiest rushing schedules and there is no doubt that the backfield will once again account for a big chunk of the offense.
Training Camp Needs: Jefferson needs to mesh with Cousins, but camp is unlikely to be enough to change the mediocre expectations from this passing game.
New England Patriots
Tom Brady – Pass: 613-373-4057-24, Rush: 26-34-3
Why hello, Mr. Change. This is the first time in 20 years that the Patriots change their quarterback and it couldn’t happen in a messier, more complicated season. Brian Hoyer shows up to offer a veteran fallback but second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham takes over. For now, at least. He was the 4.31 pick by the Pats in 2019 but only had two completion as a rookie. This is an entirely unknown situation.
The Pats were only average in passing categories last year with Brady. There was a lack of credible receivers, it seemed, and yet they did nothing to address it. The Patriots drafted two tight ends for the future and brought in Jags castoff Marqise Lee, but otherwise, go to war with the same set of receivers that struggled with Brady last year.
This is one of the more interesting camps to watch given that Stidham has almost no track record to consider and what appears to be marginal receivers.
Training Camp Needs: Stidham needs as much time as possible to work with all the starters. He’ll be facing a slightly tougher schedule than Brady did last year, and have to use mostly the same players. Training camp is critical to get the Patriots off to a good start but the passing production is sure to take a hit. But the quarterback position hasn’t had questions in two decades.
One more time. The Saints are still a perennial contender and Drew Brees wants one more ring, along with all the passing records as well. The only change to this very mature offense is that Emmanuel Sanders offers hope that there could be a second wideout that matters here. Michael Thomas ended with historic production in 2019 from a lack of other targets. And the fact that no one could cover him.
The Saints want one more championship and could be the team that needs the least amount of preparation this summer.
Training Camp Needs: Stay healthy. Get Sanders involved.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones – Pass: 459-284-3027-24, Rush: 45-279-2
The Eli Manning era came to a close after only two games last year and Daniel Jones stepped in as a 1.06 pick should. Jones faced an average strength schedule and played well on a team that lost every starting receiver for at least a few games if not half a season.
Jones helped 5.33 pick, Darius Slayton, to lead the team in receiving yards which bodes well for 2020 with Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram healthy at least for now. And a healthy Saquon Barkley just furthers the optimism that the Giants can turn around from their 4-12 debacle last year.
The Giants are onto a new set of coaches with HC Joe Judge relying on OC Jason Garrett to install the new scheme. It shouldn’t be dramatically different from what they played under last year.
Training Camp Needs: Installing the new-ish offense will take time but the same set of players return. Just being healthy will be new after last year’s continual drain of players heading for the sideline. Jones needs to re-establish his chemistry while learning a new offense.
New York Jets
Sam Darnold – Pass: 441-273-3024-19, Rush: 33-62-2
Sam Darnold still hasn’t justified that 1.03 pick from 2018. These last two seasons have seen the quarterback position remain one of the worst fantasy producers and the Jets’ answer has been to let Robbie Anderson leave while replacing him with only Breshad Perriman and drafting Denzel Mims ((2.27). That doesn’t appear to be a game-changer.
Worse yet, the Jets go from a relatively bad schedule last year to one of the worst for 2020. And Darnold adds almost nothing as a rusher, so he needs the receivers to be upgraded to help the pocket passer. That just hasn’t happened.
Training Camp Needs: Beyond Jamison Crowder, there are nothing but question marks for the wideouts. Training camp will help to set the depth chart entering the season but that doesn’t mean any will produce fantasy value. Chris Herndon is being talked up, so Darnold would help himself out by including his tight end more than 2019 when he rarely threw to the position.
Wentz continues to be worthy of a fantasy start and yet no difference-maker. Both Wentz and HC Doug Pederson have been together for the last four years and present a mature, complicated offense. Last year, the Eagles had their share of injuries that impacted the passing. DeSean Jackson is slated to return and will give Wentz a much-needed weapon.
Alshon Jeffery returns for his fourth season but he’s never replicated the success that he had back in Chicago. Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined to allow the Eagles to post an NFL-best 155 catches for 1,610 yards and 12 touchdowns from their tight ends.
Marquise Goodwin comes over from the 49ers and they drafted Jalen Reagor (1.21). That may not pay off much in 2020 but brightens the future. The schedule is kinder than most, the wideouts should be much improved with a healthy Jackson and the youngster Reagor.
Training Camp Needs: Wentz needs to work with Jackson after the year-long layoff and Reagor has plenty to learn. The Eagles are in a good shape for 2020 with the same scheme, coaches and most players. Wentz just needs to shake off the rust and stay healthy.
Okay, so maybe 2019 could have gone better. Ben Roethlisberger missed all but one game and the Steelers plummeted from one of the best passing offenses down to the worst (fantasy-wise). Losing Antonio Brown was also a negative, if only in production terms.
By all accounts, Roethlisberger returns healthy for the third year of OC Randy Fichtner and Big Ben did break 5,000 yards in 2018. The Steelers also had one of the worse passing schedules in 2019, so even just an average strength for 2020 is an upgrade.
JuJu Smith-Schuster should bounce back and Diontae Johnson was a third-round surprise last year. James Washington rounds out the returning starters and the Steelers added Chase Claypool with their 2.17 pick. At 6-4, 238 pounds, the rookie was one of the biggest wideouts in this year’s class and could make some noise this year if only later in the season.
Training Camp Needs: Mature offense with all starters returning plus Eric Ebron at the tight end though the position has been little used there. Roethlisberger just needs to prove himself healthy, stay that way, and get back to being one of the better pocket passers in the league. Last year was so bad that it obscured how good Roethlisberger can be, even without Antonio Brown.
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo – Pass: 476-329-3978-27, Rush: 46-62-1
Nothing like consistency. Jimmy G. finally played a 16-game season and ended up almost exactly where the 49ers were in 2018 when he only lasted for three games. The 49ers are in their fourth-year under HC Kyle Shanahan and there hasn’t been any sign that the offense intends on passing more. This is a team that plays great defense, ranked No. 1 in rushing yards by running backs and No. 2 in rushing attempts.
The 49ers ranked only No. 29 in pass attempts and look likely to just replicate the last two seasons.
Deebo Samuel impressed even as a rookie and returns as the primary wideout and they drafted Brandon Aiyuk with their 1.25 pick in the draft. George Kittle remains the busiest receiver but this team just doesn’t prefer to throw much and thanks to their defense and rushing game, they win games mostly without the need to throw much.
Training Camp Needs: The rookie Aiyuk can press for a starting role but he’ll need a strong showing in camp and gain instant chemistry with Garoppolo. This is a mature offense and very diverse. No reason to expect much more from Garoppolo than he’s already shown and camp won’t change that.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson – Pass: 516-341-4110-31, Rush: 75-342-3
Wilson has been a lock as a top-ten fantasy quarterback and he’s poised for yet another big year. The offense remains very mature and familiar with no major need to learning anything new.
The passing schedule is one of the more favorable ones of the last several years. New additions of Phillip Dorsett and Greg Olsen do need to get reps with Wilson but Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are already well connected to their quarterback.
Metcalf should improve in his second season to further help Wilson remain productive. Wilson’s rushing totals have slightly declined almost every year but he comes off one of his best passing years ever. Few quarterbacks are rightfully considered a lock for 30 touchdowns per season.
Training Camp Needs: The only outcome from camp, aside from just refreshing everyone, is that Greg Olsen could end up as a goal-line option like Jimmy Graham was in 2017. But they would need to show chemistry to rely on Wilson using the position more.
In with the old and out with the… wait a minute. The Buccaneers have produced the No. 2 fantasy quarterback points for the last two years. Jameis Winston threw for over 5,000 yards last year but his 30 interceptions were considered less than ideal and he was placed in an NFL timeout as the No. 3 quarterback in New Orleans.
In comes Tom Brady to hopefully fill the stands with fans who are curious about a 42-year-old Hall of Fame quarterback. Obviously, Brady steps into a great situation with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans as top-ten wideouts. That’s something that Brady never had in his 22 seasons. Oh, and they added Rob Gronkowski as an endzone threat and to spice up postgame interviews.
Brady has been remarkably durable but his production levels have waned in recent years. Is that his age or the lack of credible receivers?
We get to find out.
Training Camp Needs: Brady has to learn a new system but it will be tailored to him. Bringing in Gronkowski offers a familiar safety blanket but Brady needs to get reps with Godwin and Evans because those two will define the success of the offense. If Brady can show off his deep ball, he’ll make fantasy drafters feel better.
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill – Pass: 286-201-2742-22, Rush: 43-185-4
The Marcus Mariota era finally ended and Ryan Tannehill looked like a bargain throwing for multiple touchdowns in almost every start. Mariota never replicated his collegiate success while Tannehill suggested that the Dolphins never used him correctly.
Tannehill only played 11 games but helped A.J. Brown to blossom as a rookie and become the first 1,000-yard receiver for the Titans in the last seven years. This will be the second season for OC Arthur Smith, so no changes.
The Titans do face a much tougher passing schedule and found great success last year relying on Derrick Henry as a workhorse rusher.
Training Camp Needs: The same scheme and no new players means just refreshing everyone. This is the first training camp for Tannehill as their starter, but he was playing at a high-level last year already.
Washington Redskins
Case Keenum – Pass: 247-160-1707-11, Rush: 9-12-1
Kirk Cousins was the only 4,000-yard quarterback in Washington in the last two decades and he left after 2017. Four quarterbacks combined for marginal production in 2018 when Alex Smith broke his leg. Last season, the Skins drafted Dwayne Haskins with their 1.15 pick and it all got even worse.
Haskins returns as the starter with Kyle Allen as his backup. This is a rebuilding year with HC Ron Rivera giving the offense to OC Scott Turner (available since the Panthers also cleaned house). There were no receivers added other than 4.36 round pick Antonio Gandy-Golden.
Thaddeus Moss was added as an undrafted free agent and could have a shot at playing time on this meager roster. Terry McLaurin was the lone bright spot in a dismal 2019 when he ended with 919 yards and seven touchdowns but no other wideout had more than 365 yards. And Steven Sims and Kelvin Harmon return as starters.
Training Camp Needs: This is one of the worst passing teams for the last two years and it looks strongly like it will stretch to three. Haskins needs all the work he can get with his receivers and learning the new offense. But at least there are no new players he needs to mesh with and he can focus on making someone, anyone, become a bigger part of the offense aside from McLaurin.
