which fantasy picks will rebound

Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2021

Which fantasy football weapons are poised to rebound in 2021?

Updated: Sunday, Aug. 14, 2021, at 8:54 p.m. EDT

Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset and may underrate some proven options coming off a bad year.

Heading into the 2021 season, let’s explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2020. Recognize there is considerable overlap with our risk-reward players list.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on drafts from Aug. 12-14.

Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2021

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

A gruesome ankle injury abruptly ended what was pacing as a surefire MVP season in 2020. It’s easy to be uneasy about drafting Prescott after such a potentially catastrophic career setback, so value of his placement is a major factor in expectations.

Of quarterbacks to play at least 15 games a season ago, just Josh Allen averaged more than 29 fantasy points, and Prescott was the only to average more than that with at least four games started — finishing with a ridiculous 31.2 per contest over fewer than five full appearances. Expecting such a result again is overly optimistic. Yet, he still has the potential to average at least 28 points, presuming the positive results of his recovery being on track holds up throughout the season. Dating back to late May, Prescott declared himself ready to play in an NFL game, and his head coach also gave the dynamic quarterback a vote of confidence. Early in camp, Prescott suffered a shoulder strain and missed a few weeks of practice. The injury is not believed to be serious, and he has resumed throwing as of mid-August.

Dallas invested two draft picks into the offensive line depth to help cover for injuries, which severely hampered the line’s quality of play last year. The receiving corps is as strong as any in the NFL, and tight end Blake Jarwin is recovering nicely from knee reconstruction. It could take a game or two for Prescott to shake off the rust, but he’s poised to return to being a top-five fantasy passer.

RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler greatly overachieved in his monstrous 2019 season. It would be illogical to expect his 2021 returns to mirror or exceed those stats (132-557-3 rushing, 92-933-8 receiving). That season was his only full slate played in four years. In 10 games last year, he managed a respectable 16.5 PPR points per game (19.6 in 2019), and something in that territory should be the aim for 2021. He still finished 13th in points per game last year, so fringe RB1 is an appropriate expectation for his ceiling.

From the plus side, Ekeler averaged more yards per carry rushing than the year before, and on more attempts in fewer games, which is encouraging. The 5.4 catches per contest is just barely down from his 5.7 per-game pace in 2019. The Bolts upgraded the offensive line and didn’t do much of anything serious to address the backfield. Larry Rountree III was chosen in Round 6, and the underwhelming duo of Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley return to battle for a share of the workload.

New OC Joe Lombardi comes from the Sean Payton tree and presumably will continue the heavy utilization of Ekeler’s position in the passing game. Durability remains a concern for the fifth-year back, so be sure to build adequate depth.

WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

The do-all receiver’s aggressive style of play opens the door for increased injury risk, and that’s just part of the deal when drafting Samuel. He should thoroughly thrive if Jimmy Garoppolo starts all 17 games (that’s still weird to write). If the offense ultimately turns to 2021 No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance, whose athletic traits offer hope for keeping plays alive and putting an emphasis on play-action passing, Samuel’s crafty ways will be on full display in the intermediate game.

The emergence of 2020 rookie Brandon Aiyuk should run interference for Samuel from a defensive-attention perspective. The backfield’s potential for dominance also helps with play fakes.

The beauty of investing in Samuel is the cost isn’t too prohibitive at an ADP in the eighth round, and he touches the ball in so many ways — screens, jet sweeps, shovel traps, and virtually all of the traditional receiver routes.

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QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

The personal enthusiasm of getting his way, an improved cast of weapons, an upgraded offensive line, a brilliant system … plenty to like about Stafford after his trade to the Rams. There’s a wealth of talent around him, and the backfield is stable, too, which provides protection from defensive dishonesty around the line.

The veteran has all of the tools to thrive, and it was just two years ago when Stafford was on pace for 4,998 yards, 38 TDs and 10 picks thrown over the first half of the season before a back injury cost him the remainder of the campaign. He stayed upright for 16 contests a year ago and deserves the benefit of the doubt. Gamers have opted for Stafford near the turn of Rounds 7 and 8, making the placement fair for trusting him as a low-end QB1 with midrange upside.

TE Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

The addition of Stafford at quarterback dramatically upgrades the position, and Higbee no longer has tight end Gerald Everett to steal looks. While the receiver position is deep and will account for the vast majority of the targets, Higbee still benefits in the red zone. He played in 15 games each of the past two years, with significantly different results. Last year, recording 25 fewer passes as the entire passing attack took a step backward. Higbee saw his average per reception increase by more than a yard, and he scored five touchdowns vs. only three the year before.

His 2019 value was solidly dependent upon his volume, but last year showed he is capable of contributing with more trips to the end zone. Expect much of the latter in 2021, although with more consistency overall. Three of his five scores came in Week 2, but the other two came over the final four weeks of fantasy action after gamers mostly had given up on him. Higbee has better worth in non-PPR scoring, and he’ll be an sound asset at a volatile position in best-ball formats.

RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Barkley tore an ACL in Week 2 last season, but the team will take its sweet time in getting him back onto the field. The hesitancy in promoting a full rebound for Barkley also stems from serious concerns over Daniel Jones’ maturation. In the event the quarterback struggles again, defenders will crowd the line of scrimmage, and even the dual-threat Barkley won’t be able to find much room to roam. However, if Jones performs more like the promising rookie we saw in 2019, the former Penn State running back will be in line for a top-10 showing, even if his start to the season begins a slow note.

New York added a strong blocker in tight end Kyle Rudolph, and the passing game has the potential to excel down the field with the additions of Kenny Golladay, John Ross, and rookie Kadarius Toney. A second year in Jason Garrett’s system — with an offseason that looks much more like a traditional one — can’t hurt the overall chemistry of the offense. It all hinges on two things: Jones’ development and, of course, Barkley staying on the field. His ADP of 10th overall in PPR remains lofty, but that’s the bar the 24-year-old has set for investment. As mentioned in our risk-reward segment, it’s best to let someone else pay the price of admission.

WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

A torn ACL cut short Sutton’s 2020 season short to just one appearances as he attempted to capitalize on a promising sophomore campaign. The Southern Methodist product was highly touted across the fantasy world heading into last year’s draft season, yet there’s a noticeable degree of trepidation among gamers (7th-round ADP), between the injury and an unsavory quarterback situation.

Teddy Bridgewater was brought in to battle Drew Lock for the starting gig, but one has to expect the brass wants Lock’s superior athletic skills to win out. He’ll be given every chance to secure the job. Last year, while he struggled in his own right, there is adequate blame to be placed on the situation at receiver and a suspect offensive line. In 2020, while with Carolina, Bridgewater helped make weekly starters out of two receivers. Lock’s maturation is the key here for Sutton’s stats to potentially reach elite territory, although he should maintain reliable WR2 worth if Bridgewater is under center.

Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2020

Every year, a handful of players rebound in a big way, and we have them pegged for 2020.

Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset. Heading into the 2020 season, let’s explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2019.

QB Baker Mayfield | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 10:09

Mayfield’s rookie season closed out about as well as anyone could have expected in 2018 before the wheels came off under the one-and-done tenure of Freddie Kitchens as a head coach. Replacing Kitchens is Kevin Stefanski, a level-headed, well-groomed offensive mind whose roots in the West Coast offense should help as much as his demeanor. There’s no question the Browns are extremely talented on offense. The line has a few work-in-progress areas, but the combination of a zone-blocking system with a play-action emphasis will be the ticket to getting Mayfield back on track. He’s a better athlete than often given credit for being, and early reports say he has fully bought in to Stefanski’s ways.

After a QB16 finish last year, the expectations are modest. Lowered expectations comes with less pressure, and all of these aspects tie together for a maturing quarterback who sometimes is his own worst enemy. Look for low-end QB1 results via efficiency increases, fewer stalled drives and turnovers, and an emphasis on taking smart shots down the field.

RB James Conner | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 4:01

An efficient, consistent producer who had a nose for the end zone in 2018, the Steelers having four capable backs indicates they may look to keep Conner fresh all year after he has failed to stay healthy for 16 games with an increased role. During his breakout ’18 campaign, the Pittsburgh product ran only 215 times in 13 games (16.5 per week) and touched the ball just over 20 total times, on average. He made a name for himself in fantasy circles with 12 showings of double-digit PPR points and a dozen touchdowns scored on the turf, adding one through the aerial game.

In 2019, though, injuries, no Ben Roethlisberger, and an overall stunted offense put a target on Conner’s back for defenders. His rushing average dipped by half a yard, and 1.6 yards per reception were shaved from his passing work. He touched the ball 15 times per appearance. That has to change. Even if he handles it only 15 times a game in 2020, the efficient version of him we saw the year prior must return or this recommendation is not going to work. Big Ben returns to health. JuJu Smith-Schuster should be better and healthy. A huge year is possible from WR Diontae Johnson. The passing game gained more depth, as did the backfield, with the selection of Anthony McFarland Jr. as a change-of-pace option. Conner, in 16 games, even at 15 touches as an average, still has a chance to creep into the low-tier RB1 territory. He remains a risk-reward target as a second back, offering more security in PPR.

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WR Odell Beckham Jr. | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 3:07

Coinciding with the inclusion of his quarterback in this list, Beckham stands to benefit greatly from the move to this new offense. He played in a West Coast design before, and Stefanski’s version will find ways to utilize Beckham down the field to take advantage of his game-breaking skill set. The 2019 version of the Browns struggled so much to protect Mayfield, who never really was on the same page with OBJ, and it led to a lot of underneath work for Jarvis Landry.

The Minnesota offense under Stefanski supported a pair of talented receivers when both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen were healthy, spanning late 2018 through the end of 2019. A balanced attack with a pair of legitimate No. 1 backs will be the driver of this offense, which isn’t to say Beckham will struggle to return to WR1 status. Expect his target share to increase over last year, while his overall total of looks may not change or could even decrease slightly (133 last year). Improved efficiency from the designs, the quarterback’s decisions, and a dangerous play-action passing offense will help OBJ return to fantasy glory.

WR Adam Thielen | Minnesota Vikings | ADP: 3:06

After a pair of stellar fantasy football seasons by most any standard, Thielen struggled to overcome a hamstring injury in 2019 and was relegated to playing only 10 games, limited in a few. He averaged just 11.4 points per contest in PPR, which was his low since coming onto the fantasy scene in 2016. He still displayed game-breaking ability in couple of his healthy games and scored six times in five of the outings, but inconsistency ravaged his fantasy returns, unlike in 2018.

Minnesota lost offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to Cleveland Brows as their new head coach, paving a return to coaching for Gary Kubiak. The veteran play-caller will run an offense that is awfully similar to Stefanski’s West Coast derivative. Thielen’s top partner in the passing game, Stefon Diggs, was dealt to the Buffalo Bills and replaced by a first-round rookie. This works in Thielen’s favor for target share but also likely means he’ll see more doubles than ever. Nevertheless, trust in his connection with Kirk Cousins, a dangerous play-action passing game, and Thielen remaining healthy to create another WR1 campaign.

WR T.Y. Hilton | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 5:02

In 2019, Hilton not only had to deal with losing his BFF in Andrew Luck to premature retirement, but a nagging calf injury cost him five games and a quad strain forced him to sit another. In 10 games, he averaged only 12.5 PPR points, and the speedy veteran failed to catch more than 45 balls for the first time in his career. No stranger to injuries, Hilton has missed time in consecutive seasons, and 50 percent of his eight seasons haven’t seen him play 16 games.

The outlook for 2020 is much better. The calf injury is no longer an issue, and Jacoby Brissett has been replaced by Philip Rivers. In the past two drafts, the Colts have spent second-rounders on a pair of receivers to help alleviate some pressure on the 30-year-old Hilton. Indianapolis may opt for more running in 2020 with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor behind arguably football’s best line, and Hilton actually can benefit from a convincing play-action system. Despite undeniable overall health concerns, Hilton is a WR2 with big-play ability in a contract year.

TE Eric Ebron | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 13:11

As mentioned in the Conner writeup above, the return of Roethlisberger is crucial. Ebron still is an injury liability, and the idea he will be a weekly starter probably should be scrapped from the get-go. In 2018, during his breakout season, Ebron’s fantasy football worth was fueled by his nose for the end zone. Not only was he a TD machine, Ebron finished that season sixth in receptions and fifth in yardage generated by a tight end. He also didn’t have to contend with Jack Doyle, and Luck was his quarterback.

In 2020, provided Big Ben stays healthy, the situation is similar in several ways. We have waited to see veteran tight end Vance McDonald emerge for several years, and he, too, is injury-prone. The Steelers have a pass-leaning approach, and the best way for Ebron to find fantasy utility is as a weapon in the red zone once again. Look for the attention paid to Conner and Smith-Schuster as a benefit for Ebron seeing mostly one-on-one coverage. That said, he comes with tremendous risk and is best drafted in a rotational situation.