We’ve made it through a quarter of the NFL regular season, and we’re even further along than that, of course, in the fantasy campaign.
So what do to do about the disappointing players on your roster – the underperforming high draft picks who simply aren’t living up to their starter status four games into the season?
Some of these slow starters and underachievers may already have found their way to your bench – or even the waiver wire. But are they worth another starting shot, hanging on to, buying low in a trade or picking up a month into the season in hopes of a reversal of fortune?
To try to answer those very questions, we’re examining eight first-quarter fantasy disappointments this week – two from each of the four main lineup positions – and preaching either panic or patience. There have certainly been more than the usual share of key player injuries, but we’re not including those here, disregarding players who have missed a game or more due to health or pandemic postponement reasons.
Here goes, starting with …
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Preseason positional ADP: 3rd
Current positional rank: 11th (through play Sunday) with 99.4 total fantasy points (Huddle performance scoring)
What’s gone wrong: It started in March when elite wide receiver/top target DeAndre Hopkins was dealt to the Arizona Cardinals. And while Watson’s current top trio of wideouts (Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb) is certainly talented, none of the three bring the consistency and dependability of Hopkins, who currently leads the league with 39 receptions on 46 targets.
Hopkins’ absence – and a brutal early-season schedule that’s led to a 0-4 start for the Texans and the firing of head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien – have been enough to knock almost three fantasy points off Watson’s per-game average of a season ago. And a stat resume that includes seven total touchdowns (one rushing) and one 300-yard passing game (exactly 300 Sunday) have dropped Watson down into basement QB1 territory in a year in which passing numbers and scoring are off to record starts.
Early-October approach: Patience
Unless you happened to snare a Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers later in your draft, Watson likely is going to be your best option going forward. He’s a proven dual-threat performer who will be forced to throw often to keep up with a sub-par defense, and Watson should only gain more rapport with his new offensive weapons (Cooks, Cobb and running back David Johnson) as the schedule eases up a bit.
That said, a third straight top-five fantasy finish likely is out of reach, but Watson isn’t going to lose you many fantasy matchups, either, as a steady low-to-mid-level QB1.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Preseason positional ADP: 9th
Current positional rank: 19th (82.1 points)
What’s gone wrong: Much like Watson, Brees has been forced to go without an elite No. 1 wide receiver in the injured Michael Thomas, but unlike the Texans’ QB, Brees should be getting his top target back any week now after Thomas has missed the last three games.
Thomas’ absence has contributed significantly to Brees averaging 251.5 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt – both down from recent seasons – as he’s struggled to consistently complete passes downfield and has frequently relied on RB Alvin Kamara’s ridiculous yards-after-catch total (308) to help pad those numbers.
Early-October approach: Panic
Brees’ numbers will get a sizable bump when Thomas returns and returns to form, but if you’re forced to rely on the 41-year-old Brees as your top quarterback in a two-QB format or a 12-team or smaller league, you’re still going to find yourself at a QB disadvantage most weeks.
If that is indeed the case, and are able to sell another owner in your league on Brees’ far-fetched elite potential once Thomas is back, definitely deal him as part of a package for a more productive QB with a higher floor.
Running back
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
Preseason positional ADP: 14th
Current positional rank: 32nd (32.0 fantasy points, standard scoring)
What’s gone wrong: It’s simply been a lack of production and efficiency as Drake has accounted for 72 of the team’s 101 running back touches but has turned those into only 274 yards (3.8 per touch) and one TD. He’s also experienced a big drop-off as a receiver, averaging 3.6 fewer targets (4.9-1.3) and 2.6 fewer receptions (3.6-1.0) per game than he did in 2019.
Drake had a juicy matchup Sunday against a struggling Panthers defense, but finished with a season-low 35 yards on 13 carries and no receptions before leaving early with a chest injury (revealed on Monday as having the wind knocked out of him).
Early-October approach: Panic
There was a strong summer suspicion that Drake might’ve been overvalued based on his brilliant but small sample (814 total yards and eight TDs in eight games) in the second half of 2019, and that’s looking very much like it could be the case with the evidence so far.
Backup Chase Edmonds has averaged more yards per touch (4.6-3.8), has been much more involved in the passing game (12 more targets, eight more receptions) and has doubled up Drake’s TD production on 43 fewer touches overall. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds sees his share percentage increase going forward.
Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens
Preseason positional ADP: 25th
Current positional rank: 36th (29.3 points)
What’s gone wrong: Ingram is pacing the Ravens’ running backs in carries (34), total touches (37) and yards from scrimmage (173) so far, but fellow backs Gus Edwards (27-167 rushing) and J.K. Dobbins (15-92-2 TDs rushing) have been much more involved than expected so far.
And, of course, QB Lamar Jackson is as involved as ever as a ball-carrier, leading the team in attempts (39) and yards (235). It’s all helped drop Ingram’s usage from 15.2 touches per game last year to 9.3 so this season, and he’s on pace to finish eight TDs after finishing fourth in the league with 15 scores a season ago.
Early-October approach: Patience
If you overdrafted Ingram hoping for a repeat of his top-10 fantasy running back finish of a season ago, that’s a gamble that isn’t likely to pay off.
But if you got him around his low-end RB2, flex-play ADP, then you’re getting what you paid for. In most any case, you’re not going to bail on the lead back on one of the league’s top rushing attacks – even if his numbers seem certain to fall short of last season’s. Ingram is now a TD-needy flex option, so adjust your expectations accordingly.
Wide receiver
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Preseason positional ADP: 13th
Current positional rank: 39th (28.8 points, standard scoring)
What’s gone wrong: Moore is still getting ample targets (32 to rank 12th overall among league wideouts), but he’s only reeled in 18 so far for 288 yards and no TDs.
Meanwhile, newcomer Robby Anderson has surprisingly been Carolina’s best receiver so far and much more efficient and productive than Moore, catching 28-of-34 targets for 377 yards and a TD.
Early-October approach: Mild panic
Carolina running backs are still going to be heavily involved in the passing game, having drawn a combined 35 targets so far, and that’s likely only going to increase once Christian McCaffrey returns from his high-ankle sprain.
And unless Anderson’s target share and production fall off markedly, Moore doesn’t look like he’ll be the high-end WR2 he was drafted to be. His fantasy owners are likely going to have to settle for flex production or deal him to another league GM who will play close to a WR2 trade price in believing a Moore turnaround is right around the corner.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason positional ADP: 27th
Current positional rank: 88th (11.9 points)
What’s gone wrong: What hasn’t?
Of the 18 players league-wide who had amassed 30 or more targets through Sunday, only one (Green) had a catch percentage lower than 53.3 percent and that was Green at 42.4, bringing in only 14 of 33 targets to date. And even when new QB Joe Burrow and Green have managed to connect, the veteran receiver’s 14 receptions have produced only 119 yards (8.5 per catch) and no TDs.
Prior to Week 1, the 32-year-old Green hadn’t played in a full regular season game since October of 2018, and the rust and/or skills decline is most definitely showing so far.
Early-October approach: All-out panic
Tyler Boyd (28-320-1) and rookie Tee Higgins (12-152-2) have easily been Cincy’s top wide receivers as they’ve caught a combined 71.4 percent of their targets, and that figures to continue.
Meanwhile, there’s nowhere for Green’s efficiency to go but up, but most fantasy GMs can’t afford to wait with higher-upside wideout options available. Green is certainly droppable outside of deep leagues.
Tight end
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Preseason positional ADP: 4th
Current positional rank: 18th (19.9 points, standard scoring)
What’s gone wrong: Cluster offensive line and wide receiver injuries have played a major role in knocking QB Carson Wentz and the Philly passing game out of whack, and Wentz’s leading target hasn’t been immune.
Only Darren Waller and Evan Engram have drawn more targets among tight ends so far, and Ertz also is tied for third at the position in receptions with 19. But he ranks 15th in yards (139) as he’s averaging a career-low 7.3 yards per catch and has only caught one scoring pass so far after averaging 6.7 over the last three seasons.
Early-October approach: Complete patience
The targets are the key number for Ertz, and the efficiency figures to pick up when some of the team’s wide receivers – and even fellow tight end Dallas Goedert – get healthier and draw some of the defensive attention away from Ertz.
Evan Engram, New York Giants
Preseason positional ADP: 6th
Current positional rank: 29th (13.1 points)
What’s gone wrong: Much like Ertz, the usage/targets (30) are there, but the efficiency is most definitely not. Engram ranks 18th among tight ends with 131 yards (career-low 7.7 yards per reception) and is still looking for his first TD reception.
That’s a glaring issue with the team in general as the Giants have a league-low two TD passes (and three offensive TDs overall) – both Daniel Jones-to-WR Darius Slayton scoring connections in Week 1.
Early-October approach: Patience
Proportionally in fantasy scoring, touchdowns mean more to tight ends than any other position, and there is some definite positive regression headed the Giants’ (and Engram’s) way this season.
If you’ve needed to roster another tight end to get through Engram’s slow start, that’s perfectly understandable, but at the same time, it’s unwise to cast aside an average of 7.5 targets per game at a position of continued fantasy scarcity.
Extra Points
- Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert ranks 10th at the position with an average of 25.7 fantasy points per game and has had at least 22 in all three starts this season. He has completed 72 percent of his throws for 931 yards (8.7 per attempts), five TDs and three interceptions while rushing for 47 yards and another score on the ground. Still, according to head coach Anthony Lynn, Tyrod Taylor will be reinstated as the team’s starting QB as soon as he’s healthy. Stay tuned …
- Coming off back-to-back games in which he amassed 241 total yards and two TDs on 35 touches, Rams RB Darrell Henderson had only 38 yards on nine touches in Sunday in a 17-9 win over the Giants. Henderson was outtouched (14-9) and outsnapped (35-22) by Malcolm Brown, who finished with 56 total yards – matching his total from the previous two weeks. Confusing? Yes. And also consider that rookie second-round pick Cam Akers could be back soon after missing the last two games with a rib injury.
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 502 yards on 41-of-58 passing in Sunday’s 49-38 loss to the Browns, but wide receiver Michael Gallup caught only two passes on five targets for 29 scoreless yards. Gallup has caught 13-of-24 targets for 275 yards and a TD on the season good for 46.5 PPR points, but 25.8 of those points (55.5 percent) came in one game (Week 3 at Seattle) and he ranks fifth on the team in both targets and receptions.
- Gallup is certainly behind TE teammate Dalton Schultz, who ranks third at the position with 33.9 fantasy points, catching 18-of-28 targets for 219 yards and two TDs. Schultz has essentially done it all in the last three games, too, as he caught only one of four targets for 11 yards in the season opener after Blake Jarwin went down with a season-ending ACL tear.
- Finally, how good is 49ers TE George Kittle? After missing the previous two games with a hyperextended knee, Kittle caught all 15 of his targets Sunday night for 183 yards and a TD. So, in just two games, Kittle ranked sixth among all tight ends in PPR fantasy points (49.4) through Sunday and has reeled in 19-of-20 targets for 227 yards and a TD.
